Going For Two
November 5th, 2019
Yeah, the Bucs lost a close game at Seattle. And some are suggesting math tells them not to go for two when the Bucs scored a late touchdown to pull within one.
But math never, ever factors in the human body. Arians after the game mentioned how his defensive backs were out of gas.
If Arians knew this, types Gary Gramling of SI.com, then he should have gone for two to to potentially take a lead by a point.
Boy, I Wish Bruce Arians Had Gone for Two: After the Bucs pulled to within one in the final minute in Seattle. Their defensive backfield looked completely gassed by the fourth quarter and had no chance of stopping the Seahawks in the event Seattle won the overtime toss (which, of course, they did).
So did Arians set up his team to fail by not going for two? Perhaps.
Exhaustion or not, the root of this problem was the Bucs’ refusal to upgrade the secondary before the trade deadline when the team still had a prayer of making a wild card run.
When Carlton Davis went down before the game, that meant the Bucs had to rely on a rookie who had never played a full game, Jamel Dean. And if he wasn’t in shape, then why not? Isn’t one of the responsibilities of a team is to make sure players are in shape?
Joe didn’t hear any whining from JPP for playing so many snaps and this dude just came back from a broken neck!
November 5th, 2019 at 11:08 am
what happened to No Risk It No Biscuit!!!!! this BA dude is embarrassing himself.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:09 am
He went for 2 and failed in the Tennessee game, instead of just going for the extra point, which wouldve put us in position to tie the game with a FG near the end….so dmn if you do dmn if you dont.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:14 am
Bassenger was for going for two yesterday but today he posted some stats that gives some justification for taking the point.
His main stat…teams that fall behind at the end of the game score 30% more often than teams that are tied and tempted to just play for overtime. IE…if Arians had gone for two and succeeded the odds “favored” Seattle…by 30% based on history. The Seahawks did have about :45 to try and get into FG range…which they missed anyway.
I’m sorry but BA played to not lose…instead of winning. I KNEW when we went for one we were toast…on the road against a winning team with the hottest QB in the league.
Was there any doubt when the Seahawks won the toss who would win? If we could have held them to 3 perhaps JW brings us back?
Bottom line…a 30% chance Seattle scores and wins if we put them behind with two…a 50% chance they would get the ball in OT.
IMHO a 50% chance is greater than a 30% chance. But the odds be damned there is the human element.
Can someone explain this to me…if BA claims the secondary was gassed…I do not disagree…why would you ever believe they’re going to suddenly regain their energy. We NEEDED to get those two and try to get them off the field…ME was on fire…JW playing well…OL playing well…I gotta take that chance. Perhaps BA was so confident that we could win the toss and JW would do what Wilson did.
But we are really debating at the margins here with NO true correct answer…just opinions and stats.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:16 am
Meh they should have won on a last minute FG in either situation because our defense sucks.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:17 am
BTW I made a classic math mistake…I used “favor” after describing the %’s and conflated odds…reality is better expressed as the Seahawks had a 30% greater chance of scoring. That still leaves the Bucs with a 70% chance of winning.
Take the freaking two points.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:20 am
You can’t help but to feel bad for the few good players (receivers and 2-3 defensive players) that has had their careers stifled by being a part of this team… The problems on this team (coaching, o-line, dbs, QB and RB) all could wind up bleeding over into next season the way things are going and Doom next year before it even begins..
Maybe the best we can hope for is that Arians retires.
Hopefully then ownership will somehow luck out on hiring a HC that will bring in the best option at QB and build around him…
Maybe bring in a DC that can coach his players to a stingy defense…
Much of what we have seen from Arians just hasn’t been any better from the last several coaching staffs!
November 5th, 2019 at 11:24 am
Bruce Arians doesnt walk the talk, he definitely should have gone for 2. Tie at home win on the road is the mantra of no risk it no biscuit but just seems like more b S
November 5th, 2019 at 11:25 am
Yeah we were just lucky they missed the fg really. If you really want to get down to t we may have won if the 50-50 flip went our way… but at this point if we developed some players and show sime team growth I don’t mind losing games.. it’s all draft positiom and developing at this point. Don’t want us getting blown out but certainly don’t need a last mimute comeback win or a winning a game wr shouldn’t have ths will hurt is in the long run
November 5th, 2019 at 11:27 am
The biscuit is stale. He wants no part of it.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:28 am
@Coburn
The coin flip of OT was the game for me. If we win it we are winning the game IMO. And vice versa when Seattle won it.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:29 am
coin flip
missed chip shot kick
missed call on a defensive TD
away from 5-3
bucs life baby
November 5th, 2019 at 11:34 am
Agreed cornelius on coin flip. As for being 5-3 can’t have everything go your way. Have to win games and play well enough and hopefully half those things go your way and half go the other way and it’s enough. We did have a lot of rookies and backups in our first several weeks where we failed to take advantage.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:38 am
I would have been happy with a 2 point try…successful or not…unless it was Barber up the middle for a 3 inch vertical jump into the defender’s arms.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:39 am
He needs to take his VS and retire he was a bad hire from the get go.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:40 am
VS = BS
November 5th, 2019 at 11:42 am
I knew we were losing the coin flip. Mike always chooses tails, and I feel like everytime we go to overtime it ends up being heads. Literally told my wife before the toss it would be heads. Knew it was over at that point.
As for Dean, he got a nice welcome to the NFL. He got picked on for sure, but he also defended several passes and made some really good breakups, which was encouraging. Good hand placement.
Far more than we can say for mr. 4th year VH3 who has been relegated to the slot, and still gave up 6 out the 7 passes thrown his way (the lone miss was thrown about 4 ft over the receivers head). Pretty sure all 6 went for first downs too.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:45 am
nfl touchdown leaders:
Wilson 22
Stafford 19
Watson 18
Rodgers 17
Winston 16
Yup top 5 scoring/TD QB and he’s number 7 in yards.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:45 am
IMO in that situation you go for the win when you’re away and you go for OT at home. Getting the two would have dealt a hefty blow to the losing culture. If we didn’t get the two, same outcome.
Show the team you have confidence in them instead showing them you don’t then saying you do at the pressers.
You had a chance to kick the culture in it’s teeth and you punted.
November 5th, 2019 at 11:54 am
Honestly for dean he did have some nice breakups but some plays hr looked like he was kinda loafing.. Maybe he was just winded.. some tun plays it’s like he waited for thr runner to come to him.. Maybe hesitant and afraid to give up a big play ot winded I dunno. Didn’t like what I saw in his attitude even if he did make some plays and lose some
November 5th, 2019 at 12:01 pm
DB55: You posted it twice now good for you…
November 5th, 2019 at 12:05 pm
Here’s a thought to ponder. If the season continues as it has started what are the odds that BA calls it quits?
Followup question for bonus points.
If BA retires and a new coach comes in what are the odds any new coach would rather start new with “his” QB?
November 5th, 2019 at 12:06 pm
Clodhopper
You are on fire lately. I can’t believe how frequently I agree with your posts. All good points.
November 5th, 2019 at 12:07 pm
We left too much time on the clock to go for 2……they could still beat us with a FG.
There was a minute left and we called a timeout (had 2)…..no way we should have stopped the clock at that point….we had plenty of time to score…that may have been what BA was yelling at BA for.
We were better off….50-50 taking a chance on winning the coin flip.
I can just imagine what fans would be saying if we went for 2 and failed…..
November 5th, 2019 at 12:07 pm
when you have not won a meaningful game in nearly two decades and you know you secondary can’t cover pop warner receivers you go for the damn win. ba is a fraud… lovie 2.0
November 5th, 2019 at 12:07 pm
BA yelling at BL
November 5th, 2019 at 12:10 pm
Lucky we didn’t lose in regulation!!1st down at the 1 with the clock running and you don’t run clock. Poor in game managment and they miss a kick, otherwise everyone would see how foolish they coach was.
November 5th, 2019 at 12:16 pm
I love how people reinvent things. Seattle game is a classic example. At 11:42 of the 4th qtr, Devin White forced a fumble that was recovered by Jordan Whitehead at the SEA-45. Jameis completes a short pass to Chris Godwin for 5 yds … we’re now at the SEA-40. Long FG possible with Gay, but what happens instead?
Jameis is sacked by Kendricks for a 9-yd loss and FUMBLES. Seattle’s Rasheem Green picks it up, returns it 36 yds to the TAM-15 yd line. Our defense holds, and 5 plays later Seattle kicks a FG from the TAM-4 yd line TO GO UP BY 3 POINTS, 27-24.
Had the Bucs kicked a FG instead of fumbling, we PROBABLY would’ve won the game. Had the Bucs’ offense not allowed that 36 yard fumble return, we MIGHT have won the ballgame. Turnovers like that cost you in TWO ways: (1) Points that you DON’T score; and (2) points that the opposing team scores by virtue of having a short field to operate on.
There were MANY other turning points in that game, such as the 2 pass interference calls. BUT … when you end tied in regulation, every one of those miscues cost you just as much as every other one. Stop playing like Jameis & the Bucs’ offense is blameless in that loss Joe just because they scored 34 pts against a bad defense. Our offense AND defense leave a LOT to be desired at this point.
November 5th, 2019 at 12:21 pm
@miken- let’s be honest, this offense hasn’t been consistent enough to run clock from the 1 and still be confident they will 100% punch the ball in.
They did in fact run the ball on 1st down, which is as big of a gamble as you could take with this inconsistent o-line / run game, IMO. How many times have we seen this team get down to the 2 or 1 yard line, and then NOT be able to even punch the ball in?
That said, BA has had questionable clock management and use of his timeouts all season long.
November 5th, 2019 at 12:24 pm
@DR it was only 3 points from that fumble that D Smith caused. The defense still gave up another 31 points all by themselves. 31!
It’s just frustrating that this team can’t put a complete game together. Last week the defense played pretty good, but the offense chit the bed. This week the offense played well but the defense couldn’t stop anything after the 1st quarter. And it’s basically been like this all season. Either the D or O plays good, but not both.
Just another day in the Bucs life.
November 5th, 2019 at 12:34 pm
This game turned at the end of the first half when the Bucs went three-and-out and the Seahawks marched straight down and scored. TB was still ahead at that point but it was a classic self-inflicted momentum-killer. Going for two would have been a justifiable desperation decision but not really the way you want to manage a football team long-term. It doesn’t matter — the Bucs blow.
November 5th, 2019 at 12:53 pm
“That picture of BA looks like
someone who stole $21 million dollars
and trying to keep a straight face”
The Kobe Faker
November 5th, 2019 at 12:53 pm
The way we are letting teams move up and down the field, I think I would have gone for two instead of tying it up with so much time on the clock. Even though they still could’ve won the game with a FG that miss would’ve given us the victory had we been successful on the two point conversion. We would’ve avoided overtime where it’s pure luck to win the coin flip.
November 5th, 2019 at 12:54 pm
At BA advanced age its impossible to understand anything much less grasp modern football… too old to coach
November 5th, 2019 at 12:58 pm
Winston got a slight bump in the elbow and his tiny little hands dropped it.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:02 pm
Last night the Giants kicked a FG on 4th down from inside the ten to stay one point behind Dallas. I thought to myself, why not go for it, they’re a 2-6 team going nowhere, what do they have to lose? Of course Dallas scored a TD on their next possession, and of course NY went on to lose. Same with the Bucs, what did they have to lose, the game, they did anyway. No guts no glory. Arains is a fraud, an old wind bag. He’s been coaching not to lose all season just like Koetter did. We’ve changed coaches 3 times during Licht’s rein of terror, going nowhere along the way. Please glazers sell the team, spare us already. At least fire Licht, and hire someone who knows what they’re doing.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:14 pm
“Tampa bay Fans have been deceived and blindsided by Arians hire
Hiring 2 female coaches, dude cheerleader, 2 black coordinators, a gay kicker..
We had no idea Bruce wanted to cure cancer, solve discrimination, make america great again…
All we wanted was the QB whisperer coach of the year playcaller but instead
Bruce has found God”
The Kobe Faker
November 5th, 2019 at 1:16 pm
We were toast from when we had a chance to stretch a 14 point lead with 2:30 left in the first half and failed so badly that SEA put points on the board instead.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:22 pm
I didn’t even know of the game was over or not when they scored in OT. NFL has way too many rules.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:31 pm
Evan though we are 2-6, that record doesn’t show that we’ve been in about every game this year until the end.
Yeah the record still sucks, but it’s sure as hell better than these blowouts that we’ve seen over the last several years.
These guys just have to learn how to finish now. It seems like they play hard and fight to the end.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:32 pm
If a frog had wings it wouldn’t bump his ass when it hopped…..
November 5th, 2019 at 1:39 pm
Defense Rules I usually agree with you but I think your far off base on that one. Yes, that turnover was a turning point of the game but their isn’t much cheaper to fault the Bucs offense for there. It was really a fluky type of play.
In the end the defense has to take the brunt of the blame here bro. They were given lead after lead and just kept gagging it back up. Then we kept tying it up late and the defense kept on choking. And when we tied it at 34 they choked and let them go for a game winner FG. They in OT the gaged up the entire field and we’re helpless to stop them.
Simply put the defense could not give us enough stops to win.
Any critism of the offense is nitpicky at best. Meanwhile the defense was atrocious for a good 80% of the time they were on the field.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
Unbelievable … “it was only 3 points from that fumble that D Smith caused.” I agree. And regulation ended with the score 34-34. Had it not been for those 3 pts, the Bucs MIGHT have won in regulation 34-31. That’s my point.
In the final analysis, every point counts just as much as every other point. Doesn’t matter if you score them in the 1st qtr or in the last 30 seconds. Winning teams play CONSISTENT football for all 4 qtrs. To teams like the Patriots, every series counts just as much as every other series, and they minimize the mistakes. THAT’S how we won our Super Bowl. And when this team gets to that point, THEN we can start talking playoffs.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:44 pm
The defense gave up 40 and they were aided by 3 missed kicks. Very easily could have been 48 points allowed.
Absurd for a professional defense to allow that. And what 5 TD passes and 500 yards? Nowhere near good enough.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:49 pm
DR reguarding the defense that’s the problem…….They actually we’re consistent and minimized mistakes on Sunday. We are just consistently bad. Just not good enough.
Dean didn’t make no mistakes in coverage. He wasn’t put of position or nothing he just could not cover good enough. He is just a bad football player right now……Same with Hargreaves when QBs decide to target him and same with our LBs when they get targeted. Had nothing to do with mistakes. These guys just aren’t good enough.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:53 pm
JimmyJack … It doesn’t matter if it was a flukey play or not; it happened. And I totally agree with you … “Simply put the defense could not give us enough stops to win.” They coughed up 31 points against a very good offense (Seattle scoring a FG after that fumble, regardless of who caused it, was a given based on their offense getting the ball at the TAM-15 yd line).
And I also agree that the 34 pts scored by our offense SHOULD have been enough to win, even against Russell Wilson (the most that Seattle had scored in their first 7 games was 32 pts against the Browns).
Personally I empathize with Todd Bowles right now, because I doubt there’s another NFL team that’s started 2 rookies on defense Sunday, much less FOUR ROOKIES, and with 2 of them being starting cornerbacks going against a future HOF QB. That really is Mission Impossible.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:54 pm
St Pete
Thank you. It shocking how well people can get along when you take out just one topic 🙂
For what it’s worth. I agree with you an awful lot too!
November 5th, 2019 at 2:00 pm
Welcome back Kobe Faker. I missed you 🙂
November 5th, 2019 at 2:02 pm
I don’t feel sorry for Bowles at all………Boo hoo he had the start 1 backup? I mean what the heck are we talking about here? Saying 4 rookies does nothing but make it sound worse then it really was. 3 of them guys are starters here and have been all year(except Bunting who is improving and earned more snaps for himself).
Bowles didn’t even do anything to ever stop the bleeding. It was an insult to me as a fan to watch Dean struggle all day and our coaching just allows it. But no adjustments….not even in OT……They just stuck Dean on a sideline and let it happen.
Every team in the league is using backups right now. So what the heck are we talking about?
November 5th, 2019 at 2:09 pm
JimmyJack … “These guys just aren’t good enough.” Guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree on that one JimmyJack. This defense has LOTS of talent, even in the Secondary. The Front-7 still aren’t getting enough pressure on the QBs to suit my taste, BUT they’re playing good enough to win more games than they lose.
The Secondary is a major problem right now, but NOT because they lack talent. Davis, SMB, Dean & Edwards have all impressed me, BUT … they lack experience, and there’s only one way to get it. In Sunday’s game, Carlton Davis never played because he was hurt, and Edwards played hurt it looks like (back into the lineup, but only for 25% of the snaps). Still not convinced that Dean is 100%, but I was impressed with his 4 PDs & 5 solo tackles.
And for the record, Whitehead has 8 PDs on the season, Davis has 6, SMB 3 and VHIII has 3 PDs. So Dean got more PDs in ONE GAME than VHIII has in EIGHT GAMES. Hmmm, hard to figure out who the REAL weak link is? Thanks again Jason.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:29 pm
“So Dean got more PDs in ONE GAME than VHIII has in EIGHT GAMES.”
Yup, that’s why I’ve told people to chill out on Dean. He got picked on and definitely exposed at times but he’s a rookie and is showing flashes.
Hargreaves on the other hand shows nothing. Every pass thrown his way was completed except for 1, and that’s b/c it was thrown way over the receivers head (uncatchable). They need to bring in at least 1 vet to the secondary next season with real leadership abilities to help these young guys out.
Obviously that should have happened this year instead of banking on VH3 to be that guy.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:29 pm
DR I can give you that. If you think we got the talent but lack the experience that’s understandable. I’m not a talent evaluator. I’ll just be patient for now and time will tell.
But you would be hard pressed to tell me that our coverage across the board is good enough right now on the field. I really don’t see what the point of touting Dean getting some PDs in that game……..I mean the guy gave up 4 passes into the endzone(or was it 5?). 3TDs and a 2pt conversion……….And he was targeted and taken advantage of on every critical drive in that game.
He was a bad player last week. Maybe you disagree, that’s fine. I just gotta hope these DBs can show us something better in the second half. Right now they are crushing my hopes and dreams.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:32 pm
Will actually say I thought Bunting looked pretty decent out there Sunday day. Don’t think he was targeted much…….Kinda like an Offensive Lineman where if you don’t notice them much it’s a good thing.
It’s actually a pretty encouraging sign because he was flat out bad when they used him earier in the year……..So you can actually see that he is getting better. Let’s look to see if he can keep improving.
GO BUCS!
November 5th, 2019 at 2:36 pm
Unbelievable…….I was very vocal about Dean after the game and wasn’t happy with his play.
But I’m not overly dissapointed in Dean as a 3rd round pick in his first game. What I am mostly upset at is the coaching to make no adjustment in that game. Either try Ryan Smith to take some of them snaps or change the game plan where Dean isn’t exposed in single coverage.
That’s the part that really bothered me about that game.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:39 pm
How has Edwards impressed you? Serious question. Just asking cause I have not noticed him at all this year.
I will say I have noticed A.Adams more them him. Pretty sure Adams has had far fewer snaps too.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:12 pm
Heck, I went for two! Two shots of Crown Royal!
This team is such a tease. They play just good enough to win on one side of the ball and horribly on the other.
Here’s the thing. If we go for two, they still find a way to win. It’s what’s expected of a good football team. I doubt any of their defenders would feel good about the Bucs taking them to task and then having to defend in OT. They put the game in Wilson’s hands. Game. Set. Match!
November 5th, 2019 at 3:15 pm
What’s funny is we still were risking tying that game up with how poorly our kicking has been
November 5th, 2019 at 5:21 pm
JimmyJack … Bucs not putting in Ryan Smith bothered me too. I have no idea what’s going on there, but he’s got ZERO defensive snaps this season. ZERO. He’s apparently not hurt because he’s been in on almost 100 S/Ts snaps. Maybe the Bucs have already decided to move on from him next year & not waste any defensive snaps on him. IF that’s the case, that doesn’t make a lick of sense since VHIII is still out there & he should be the one riding the bench. No way they’re paying him over $9 mil next year.
November 5th, 2019 at 5:31 pm
JimmyJack … I like Adams too BTW. Couldn’t believe it when the Bucs didn’t re-sign him after he had 4 INTs last year to go with 9 PDs playing in 13 games with just 4 starts.
Mike Edwards didn’t hardly play at all in the 49ers game, but played over 90% of the snaps in the next 4 games before going on the injury list. I know he’s ‘just a 3rd round pick’ but he did decent for a rookie in those 4 games I thought … 21 tackles with 17 of them solo & 2 PDs (plus 1 TFL). That’s not all that shabby for a rookie with 4 starts under his belt. And in Training Camp he seemed to really take the bull by the horns in terms of leadership in the Secondary. Kinda reminded me of a much-smaller version of John Lynch (6’2″ vs 5’10” and John was 15 lbs heavier).
November 5th, 2019 at 6:06 pm
Bucsfanman Says:
November 5th, 2019 at 3:12 pm
Heck, I went for two! Two shots of Crown Royal!
that a boy!!!!
November 5th, 2019 at 7:02 pm
Go for 2 if its basically a walk-off – 48 seconds and a timeout – that’s an eternity in this league. Add in that this was against our D….Seattle not getting a FG opportunity would have been a miracle.