Defensive Projection
September 3rd, 2019
BSPN: Ugliness continues.
This time of the year the spreadsheeters are so busy their hard drives are overheating and their fingers are developing blisters.
All of them are trying to guess what teams will do this season. One of their predictions (this word gets their briefs bunched up as they prefer the word “projections”) either seems crazy or reasonable, depending how you look at it.
Sreadsheeter Mike Clay of BSPN has the Bucs giving up the most points in the NFL this season.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 421 points
Tampa Bay’s defense has some intriguing young players, including Vita Vea, Devin White and Carlton Davis, but injuries to Vea and Jason Pierre-Paul, as well as unproven or inexperienced players at most starting positions means 2019 figures to be rough.
Last year, 421 points would have been ninth-worst in the NFL, which is what the Chiefs allowed. The Bucs coughed up the second-most points with 464.
Joe has many questions about the defense, but is of the mind it has to be better than the complete train wreck under disgraced former defensive coordinator Mike Smith. Doesn’t it?
If the Bucs give up that many points again this year, that’s a really, really, really bad look.
Joe doesn’t see that happening.
September 3rd, 2019 at 12:07 pm
My guess is 376 total points.
September 3rd, 2019 at 12:23 pm
Sadly I’ll take 26 ppg. Means they can win with less than 30 ppg.
September 3rd, 2019 at 12:24 pm
Mike Clay’s assessment of the defense is not wrong. Most are unproved or inexperienced.
6-10.
September 3rd, 2019 at 12:25 pm
380 total defensive points allowed
410 total offensive points
8-8 record
September 3rd, 2019 at 12:30 pm
Did you know that the Bucs are quite poor at winning games you might classify as a “shootout”. Last year, the Bucs had 10 games where the opponent scored at least 24 points. The Bucs were 1 – 9 in those games, winning only vs. NO with Fitzmagic. In fact, since 2015, the Bucs have had 37 such games where the opponents scored at least 24 points. The Bucs record in these “shootout” type games is 4 – 33!!
For comparison, the Chiefs defense was 24th overall last year, and they had 9 games where the opponents scored at least 24 points. Mahomes and their offense went 5 – 4 in those 9 games.
The Rams defense was ranked 20th overall, and had 8 such games where the opponents scored at least 24 points. Jared Goff and the Rams offense went
6 -2 in those games, even winning vs. KC scoring a 50+ burger!
tickrdr
September 3rd, 2019 at 12:34 pm
The Bucs offense has seldom carried the team.
The Bucs DEFENSE carried the team in 2016.
They had SEVEN games where they allowed 17 or less points. Record 7 – 0.
tickrdr
September 3rd, 2019 at 12:36 pm
Cool they are guessing what a defense that they have never saw before will do.
Really makes no sense to make a projection for this but if people will read it they will write it.
September 3rd, 2019 at 3:22 pm
Its a educated guess. Thats it. Everyone has a opinion dosent make them right. Good or bad nobody really knows.Trust the process we have a new coach here. Most of you think we will be picking top 10. Thats fine love to hear others opinions on the season. Games still need to get played so this is the time of year everyone is Super Bowl bound. Alot happens teams can’t control. Injuries, bad calls by the refs, players getting arrested or get popped form PEDs. Trust the process.
September 3rd, 2019 at 3:29 pm
Im taking the under, why, we will give up more 3’s than 6’a this year, also expecting to produce more turnovers and less stupid penalties that give teams extra series/downs.
September 3rd, 2019 at 4:18 pm
Of course you know what they say. Opinions are like aholes. Everyone has one, and most of them stink.
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:02 pm
@tickrdr those are some interesting stats.
But we already know the defense was the cause of that 5 game win streak in 2016. They were a top-10 defense during the back half that season.
Unfortunately that was a long time ago. How many games in 2017 and 2018 hold opponents to under 17 pts ?