The Raiders’ Lean At No. 4
April 20th, 2019
Draft-selection insight is a lot easier to glean when your personnel chief has a very long and public history of explaining and detailing his preferences and selections.
Enter the Oakland Raiders with the No. 4 overall pick next week, one slot before Tampa Bay’s. The new Oakland general manager is former year-round NFL Network/NFL.com draft guru Mike Mayock, who arguably was the best and most thorough in the business.
Now he’s Chucky’s new personnel guru in Oakland. Yeah, Joe understands Chucky calls the shots, but he didn’t hire Mayock to be a yes man; he hired Mayock because he liked his evaluations.
So with that in mind, Ali Bhanpuri of NFL.com typed up an insightful piece that studied Mayock’s work over years as a public figure draft guru.
The first trend named interested Joe.
1) Watch for a pass rusher at No. 4. The Raiders ranked last in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt last season. Not too surprising, considering they shipped out one of the best pass rushers of the decade before the season started. Fortunately for Oakland, the 2019 class is loaded with premier pass rushers.
Mayock consistently ranked his No. 1 defensive end and defensive tackle among his top overall players in the last six draft classes, with the top-ranked DE averaging at No. 3 overall, vs. No. 7 for DTs. So, we could very well see the Raiders take a defensive lineman at No. 4 on Thursday. And if Mayock and Co. do go D-line with their first pick, don’t be surprised if the Raiders take a DE over a DT, as in the past six drafts, Mayock valued top-tier DE prospects nearly twice as much as he did DT prospects.
So would the Raiders dare take a defensive end if Alabama DT Quinnen Williams is sitting there for them at No. 4? That would make a lot of Bucs fans awfully happy.
In that scenario would Bucco Bruce Arians dare to take linebacker Devin White over Williams?
April 20th, 2019 at 11:09 am
Kyler Murray…if he does not go in the 1st 4 picks all Buc mocks are screwed…
April 20th, 2019 at 11:15 am
I guarantee if QW is there Bucs are not passing. I think that is a given. I still want to them move down a few slots and then they can still walk away with Devin Bush and a DE like Sweat or Burns by moving back in to the 1st round.
April 20th, 2019 at 11:22 am
Ideal scenario would be Q Williams
Most realistic possibility imo:
1-Murray
2-Bosa
3-trade-QB
4-J Allen
That doesn’t seeem too far fetched given the jets seem to want to trade down
April 20th, 2019 at 11:31 am
There’s no way in hell Quinnen Williams is there at #5. No way. And there’s no way in hell he’s even there at #4. Top 3 pick for sure.
The Bucs will be once again, 1-2 picks outside the game-changing talent in the Draft and needing to gamble on whatever prospect they select.
April 20th, 2019 at 11:39 am
If Allen, Bosa, and Q are off the board they better trade back a little and grab Bush over White to at least get another shot in the second round despite not having a great track record in the second. Hell I would be more inclined to take a second number 1 next year over a 2 this year tbh. Whether Jameis succeeds or fails this line is gonna need some fresh meat at tackle with Dotson on his last leg. Plus if JPP is gone we will need another rush end. CB if VHIII can’t fix his injury issues or just flat out busts. Four of the most important positions on the team could be needed and I’d rather have 2 1st rounders for that scenario
April 20th, 2019 at 12:02 pm
Sounds to me that we simply didn’t lose enough games to get the draft pick we want. (sarcasm)
April 20th, 2019 at 12:19 pm
BucsBandit Says:
April 20th, 2019 at 11:31 am
The Bucs will be once again, 1-2 picks outside the game-changing talent in the Draft and needing to gamble on whatever prospect they select.
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LOL….the Universal NFL Draft Rule
the player any team covets are always ranked/ taken before their pick
April 20th, 2019 at 12:56 pm
AlteredEgo, i don’t doubt that most teams end up feeling that way, but that’s not what I meant…
Every year there are about 3-5 “Top” rated prospects that have about a 90% chance (outside of QBs, of course) at long-term, Pro Bowl careers. Those prospects consistently produce in the NFL.
This isn’t about the Bucs picking 9th and who they want being taken 7th or 8th. This is simply that the top 3-4 can’t miss prospects in this draft will be off the board before we pick at #5. It happened when we had to settle for the 2nd ranked DT (McCoy) instead of the 1st (despite having a Top 5 pick that year, missing out on Calvin Williams by 1 pick to the Lions, and many other drafts where the Bucs had a stinker of a year and get a high draft pick, but just not high enough to get one of the considered “elite” prospects of the draft.
This year will be no different. Barring some aggressive trade-ups into the Top 5 by QB-needy teams, the Bucs will end having to take a gamble at #5 (most likely reaching) for whoever they select since Bosa/Williams/Allen will be off the board.
April 20th, 2019 at 12:58 pm
I’m fine with either Bosa, Williams, Oliver or Allen. Gotta keep building the trenches.
April 20th, 2019 at 1:04 pm
Why do u have so much faith in Jason to blow this pick?
April 20th, 2019 at 1:08 pm
Q Williams worries me since he was a one year wonder. Bucs been down that road before with Bowers.
April 20th, 2019 at 1:12 pm
There will be a legit DT or DE in round 2. Jonathan Simmons, Jaylen Ferguson, Gerald Willis, Zach Allen, Joe Jackson, Chase Winovich, Jachai Polite. If not get Nasir Adderley (physical safety, can play corner and also return kicks). That’s means if Allen, Bosa, Williams are off the board, Devin White, the game changing ILB who can rush the passer from wherever is the pick
April 20th, 2019 at 1:21 pm
Perhaps I’m slow on the uptake. Is Allen truly a “trenches” kind of guy. I thought his skill set was his speed and ability to get into the opposing backfield from the edge with little to no bull rushes.
He is listed as a linebacker in what I’ve read and not as a DE.
I think all of us including the Joes are too glued to position semantics. And so Spence came out and is listed as a DE while most list Allen as an OLB. What does it really matter?
Their skill sets are VERY similar. Neither is a bruiser, neither employs a lot of bull rushing in his game. Spence is five pounds lighter but three inches shorter so he is the thicker of the two.
It just seems IMHO that Allan is Spence 2.0. Spence wowed his team and the Jags in their joint practice. He had some success his rookie year with a horrible shoulder separation mixed in. He has enough surgeries and time healing to perhaps be truly healthy for the first time he’s been with the Bucs.
He has much as any player on this team the potential to truly blossom under a new coaching staff with a new system that appears to better utilize his skill set.
Sacks are important but no more so than simply getting to the QB and disrupting his timing and putting him on his butt whether he can throw the ball away before taking a “sack”. Yeah I like the loss of yardage with a sack but the bottom line is simply disrupting the QB’s timing…forcing him off his spot…making him run for his life…and when possible legally to hit him hard enough to put a little pain in his memory. This does NOT have to come from the DL!!! LB’s can also be effective.
If Spence finally realizes his potential and we drafted White and turned him loose and added some more sacks lets not forget LVD!!!!
LVD not only had SEVEN sacks in a single season he averaged 5 sacks a season in a three year stretch eliminating the season he was injured. LVD has ALREADY PROVED he can get to the passer…before Smitty took him out of our defense.
There is more than one way to get to the passer and Bowles defense seems to emphasize that.
Ronde Barber had FOUR seasons with three sacks and one with 5.5. sacks from the CB spot. We have some guys in the DB that may actually do a better job rushing the passer than covering the WR’s. We simply need to have faith that Bowles can figure that out.
April 20th, 2019 at 1:25 pm
I’d have figured that Gruden would take a QB, but then I remember with the Bucs, when we actually needed a QB and didn’t have anything close to Carr, that Gruden would pass on guys, like Aaron Rodgers, because he hated young QBs.
April 20th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
All these predictions and mock drafts are just to generate chatter about the nfl. They are making the mistake of showing the nfl draft over the last decade. All the hype players like Trent Richardson to Cleveland got and Blackmon receiver from Jacksonville who drank himself out of the league and compared to Andre Johnson on draft day lol they draft guys look completely stupid in hindsight. Sure things turn into busts really easy not just for the Bucs
April 20th, 2019 at 1:46 pm
DO NOT TRADE BACK! Take top tier DL prospect (Williams, Allen, Oliver or Sweat) at 5 and move forward.
April 20th, 2019 at 1:46 pm
DL/Edge
April 20th, 2019 at 1:48 pm
While I don’t agree with Rod Muncher much, he is correct, when has Gruden ever drafted a rookie qb to be his starter. He took a couple in later rounds but seems to like vets as his starters.
We had Simms and Gradkowski and neither was choosen to be the starter. And neither was particularly good either. Can’t see Gruden taking a QB at 4 or in the first round.
April 20th, 2019 at 1:58 pm
LOL…Gruden didn’t draft Simms and the backstory if true is Hilarious….
April 20th, 2019 at 4:22 pm
I’d be pissed if they take Allen over Q if theyre both there. Josh Allen in a 3-4 has success written all over it. If they stay at 5 I pray for Allen. Need Cards and another team to jump up n take a QB.
April 20th, 2019 at 4:48 pm
It’s Gruden whoever he takes will suck
April 20th, 2019 at 4:56 pm
Ed Oliver is the best in this class IMO
Talk to me in two yrs and tell me I’m wrong.
April 20th, 2019 at 5:08 pm
If Q is there at 5 (God, please), you take him….pretty simple rocket science with the whole GMC fiasco….but he probably wont be.
Q
Bosa
Allen
White
If at least one team trades up for a qb, we have a shot at one of the above….and im listing them in that order for where I would take them.
But maybe a qb run will start with us in a trade down thats too sweet to resist. In that case, you go with the other LB named Devin, and then DT Simmons! Then work on getting our G/RT in Lindstrom or McCoy. WE HAVE PASS RUSH ALREADY, especially in a 3-4 if Bowles is going to run it that way!
April 20th, 2019 at 5:17 pm
@rrssrq…yup, Chase Winovich in the top of the 3rd
so we go Q, Lindstrom (i want Bradbury but hes going around 20th) then Winovich if still there….
or trade down, go Devin Bush, Simmons, Lindstrom, Winovich….
April 20th, 2019 at 5:17 pm
Forget the trade down. That’s a b**ch move.
You got a Top 5 Pick. Do your dang job and find us a Top 5 player. Trading down means trading away a great chance at a dominating player.
Maybe their will be none but if they it away and are wrong it’s sets the franchise back. If you don’t think so then please tell me the last time we had a true game changer on defense……….These are the guys you build around and they are extremely difficult to find.
Top 5 gives us a great chance to finally find a truely dominate players and some of y’all wanna trade that away and go longer years without elite defenders?………..Y’all obvisously don’t know how valuable a Top Five pick is but I am confident our front office does and will be taking a Top talent at 5.
April 20th, 2019 at 5:22 pm
And the worst is that I keep hearing to trade down just to pick up a extra second……….So you wanna trade away a dominating perrienal All Pro for a 2nd round choice that has about 50% bust rate?
Do y’all really know that little about draft history?
If for some stupid reason we do decide to trade away an elite pick doing it for one dart throw is about as bad a GM job as you could do.
April 20th, 2019 at 5:29 pm
If Licht trades away an elite Top 5 pick he is admitting he does not know how to find talent and is playing scared.
It could make sense if he gets some kind of massive trade offer but if he trades away a elite pick for a single 2nd round 50% bust choice that means he is a awful GM that is admitting he is incapable of finding elite players.
Thankfully all this trade down crap comes from the fans…..Our GM is not that stupid.
April 20th, 2019 at 7:19 pm
im with you Jimmy…ive actually come to the conclusion that we need to trade up for Q if he’s still there at 4. Lets just get it over with, D line fixed (we have a few pass rushers on the ends already)
April 20th, 2019 at 7:56 pm
Max I have thrown that idea around some too. With a big move e like that would come great expectations…….Something we haven’t had for a long time other then Winston.
But Q value seems to be rising and I don’t think he drops to 4……If I were to do my own mock I would guess Q goes #2 to the 9ers………But that’s OK we will still have big expectations for whoever we draft at #5, simply because the pick is that valuable.
I don’t know why fans wanna trade away expectations………They must think 2nd & 3rd round players will step right in on their rookie years and make big impacts………..It’s almost like these fans have just started following the NFL.
You don’t fix a defense by upgrading each and every position. The only way to fix it is to find impact players………which you cannot expect from later rounds. It’s hard as hell to find them in the bottom of the 1st……….You know where it’s not hard to find them? Top 5…………….Just knock it off fans stop trying to beg my Bucs to trade away our impact player. We freaking need him badly. Right now our team has zero impact players on defense. Not One.
April 20th, 2019 at 8:04 pm
Once you get a impact player it makes everybody better.
You get a Q that will force a fumble all the sudden a guy like Whitehead gets to scoop and score and looks like a better player……..Devin gets his hands on something over the middle and a these new Buccannon dude catches a little popup and makes a game changing play.
All the sudden our starters and role players just get to relax and worry about doing their jobs. Cause now they don’t gotta worry about makeing the big plays. They start to play more loose and relaxed.Then you see talented players like LDV and VitaV chip in some splash plays.
April 20th, 2019 at 8:31 pm
They need a FG specialist at 5
April 20th, 2019 at 8:33 pm
Cole Tracy of LSU looks solid
April 20th, 2019 at 9:51 pm
Interesting to see how Mayock does…sure will be better than Licht Weight no doubt.
April 20th, 2019 at 10:32 pm
@Jimmy….if we land Q or Devin, we’re in business…..bottom line!
April 21st, 2019 at 12:06 am
So Bucs come away with Devin White or Ed Oliver if no QB in first 4 picks–finding it hard to be upset with that worse case scenario. Possibly Licht trades down and we get screwed then(because Licht loses out on elite talent) but I am thinking that Bucs are really liking EO and DW. Go Bucs!!!!!!
April 21st, 2019 at 7:54 am
JimmyJack: actually it’s quite the opposite. If he chooses to trade down I suspect it’s because he sees players of equal value to this team further down the board so if he can pick up additional picks by trading down then why not?
Maybe they really like Bush or Sweat but feel like they can either at 10 or 13 based on their own mocks. Seems like that’s a smart move to me. Problem with Licht hasn’t been his willingness to trade down, it’s been some of the pick made after he’s done so.
April 21st, 2019 at 8:04 am
No way Chase makes it to the third round the dude tested as an elite athlete and has the production to back it up
April 21st, 2019 at 8:28 am
“Thankfully all this trade down crap comes from the fans…..Our GM is not that stupid.”
I think the Joes wrote an article earlier this week about Lichj’s propensity to trade back.
Licht is that Huckleberry.
The best player in this draft, who is a perfect fit for the Bucs, can be found in the middle of the 2nd round. His name is Darrell Henderson. !st team All American RB (27 Td’s) from Memphis.
April 21st, 2019 at 8:56 am
OLIVER BABY DONT BE STUPID DUDE WILL BE A COMPLETE GAME WRECKER TAKE OLIVER PLEASE!!!!
Also can’t the bucs just go over the cap and pay a penalty? Screw it take the cap hit right?
April 21st, 2019 at 8:04 pm
@Phillip, you’re right about Chase….dudes a stud and probably a 2nd rounder…im just wishful thinking. But if we grab Q and Lindstrom….then i hope we find a way to trade up for him with our 3rd pick.
April 22nd, 2019 at 10:36 am
If AZ doesn’t take Kyler Murray at #1, this draft is going to get interesting really fast. I could see then the Jets trading back and someone moving up to take Kyler, but holy hell would that blow up all the mocks.