Fine Tuning
April 5th, 2019
Cash register ringing.
If both distant and recent history are solid barometers, it’s hard to imagine bad things happening with America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, in the near future.
We all know Bucco Bruce Arians was hired to get Jameis right. Through his NFL coaching days, Arians has had a Midas touch when it comes to quarterbacks.
Now follicly challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN has never been smitten with Jameis. But he writes Jameis has shown enough to demonstrate he can handle the NFL if only he can be more consistent.
If Arians can pull that off with Jameis, Barnwell types, Jameis is going to bank serious coin.
The Winston roller coaster goes on. For the second consecutive season, Tampa is hopeful about the former first overall pick because of an impressive stretch at the end of the season. After being suspended to start the 2018 season and getting benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick in October, Winston came back into the lineup in Week 10 and played at a high level. The 25-year-old posted a passer rating of 100.1, took just two sacks per game, and crucially threw just four interceptions over a span of six-plus games. Two of those picks were essentially Hail Mary attempts, too.
From the moment he was inserted back into the lineup, Winston posted a 72.7 Total QBR. That was the sixth-best mark in football and better than guys such as Brees, Wilson, Prescott and Baker Mayfield over that same time frame. One stat isn’t everything, and it’s a seven-start sample amid a 54-start career, but if Winston is that guy again in 2019, the Bucs are going to pay him a lot of money.
Think about that for a moment. Jameis was playing on a level in the final six games that was among the NFL’s elite, Barnwell notes. Yet the Bucs lost time after time after time.
In the past three years, the Bucs in general and Jameis in particular never had a chance. Watching the Bucs’ gutless defense was the equivalent of getting a stadium-sold $10 lukewarm Miller Lite thrown in your face.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:11 am
Jameis is this franchises only hope and they don’t deserve him.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:25 am
Shocker an analyst that can see what anyone outside of our resident trolls saw. Jameis playing at a high level, only to have the defense crap the bed time and time again. But the trolls will say draft a qb. If JW can stay consistent, which is what most if us want, hell have a fantastic year. And please for the love of all things holy, get a damn running game to help him out.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:25 am
im more worried about the kickers rather than winston….
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 5th, 2019 at 11:28 am
29th out of 32 teams in total team rushing. The 2nd and 3rd leading rushers were QB’s.
31st out of 32 teams in defense points against.
Improve these two areas first. Winston has already improved over the last 6 1/2 games. No reason to believe he won’t continue to improve especially with better coaches.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:29 am
I’ve been all-in on him the whole time. Let’s go.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:48 am
He played just as well when his shoulder healed up the year before. Last year after the suspension he came in cold on a 4 game layoff and didn’t even get 1st team reps in camp. Yes it was all his fault for getting himself suspended but I’m not sure it was realistic to expect him to come in and light it up right away. In those situations that’s when it’s most important to have a good running game, a decent defense and a solid special teams. None of which we’ve had around here in awhile. BA will change that and Winston will continue to improve.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:54 am
Here we go…same dumb dumbs were saying this about his last four games LAST year. That was the true Winston and then look what happened…he crapped all over himself this year. Now, here we go again…last 7 games he played like this…are you people this stupid. How many times you gonna fall for the same crap? Are you that desperate?
April 5th, 2019 at 12:00 pm
“…he crapped all over himself this year.”
Top 8 QB per BSPN’s rating system. For the entire 2018 season. Not the problem with this team.
T REX please show me the QBs winning games with bottom 3 rush offenses and bottom 3 scoring defenses?
I won’t hold my breath.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:02 pm
People like T Rex who talk in absolutes are the clueless ones. Talking in absolutes means you can not accept the reality of the Winston improvement. Why can’t you some will ask? Because that will not fit your narrative. Since this is a what have you done for me lately league it only makes sense that we look at what Winston did over the last 6 games. The question is can he repeat it? Obviously since you talk in absolutes you don’t believe it. My guesstimate is YOU will be wrong.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:03 pm
@Joe … “Watching the Bucs’ gutless defense was the equivalent of getting a stadium-sold $10 lukewarm Miller Lite thrown in your face.” Wow, surprise, surprise, Joe used the descriptor ‘gutless defense’ yet again, and yet Jameis was playing on an elite level in those final 6 games according to you Joe.
And yet, the Bucs went 2-4 in that stretch. And yet, our offense scored at an alarming rate of 21.5 PPG average, while our putrid defense gave up an alarming 22.5 PPG average. Disgusting. For fun, take away the last game (Falcons win 34-32) and our defense gave up only 20.2 PPG average in the other 5 games in that stretch, while our offense only scored at a rate of 19.4 PPG. Poor Jameis, he “never had a chance”.
Oh and Joe, it MIGHT be worth mentioning that the Bucs’ offense ONLY had 6 turnovers in those 6 games, representing opportunities for our opponents’ offenses to score. But you should also mention that the Bucs’ defense created 11 turnovers in those same 6 games, opportunities for the Bucs’ offense to score. Hmmm, totally gutless defense. Poor Jameis.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:17 pm
T-RX is about as dumb as it gets.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:22 pm
Just about to comment on that z31.
No t Rex. It’s evident you’re that stupid. Or just in a coma and didn’t realize jameis was suspended 3 games and a carrousel ensued in which koetter wouldn’t commit to him and went back to a career journeyman who got benched TWICE for jameis.
I say it a lot and I’m saying it again. We have a dumb fan base. Hard to ignore with posts like t rex’s everyday.
Jameis WILL be top 10 once defense and the run game is resolved with a legit coaching staff.
Finally.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:23 pm
Maybe if we could run the ball and play defense Jameis wouldn’t have all those losses.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:34 pm
Just endless excuses…like the last four years. It’s never his fault.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:44 pm
I think it’s about time for a @Realist Repost!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 5th, 2019 at 12:56 pm
Posted previously, please IGNORE!
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tickrdr Says:
March 31st, 2019 at 12:49 pm
Only two quarterbacks have played for the Bucs over the last two years.
To my knowledge they have BOTH had:
the SAME coaches,
the SAME RBs,
the SAME receivers,
the SAME kickers,
the SAME defenses,
the SAME offensive line,
etc., etc., (uniforms, locker rooms, game-day meals or other excuses).
Ryan Fitzpatrick started 10 games and went 4 – 6.
Jameis Winston started 22 games, and went 6 – 16.
Now, I will admit that the opponents were different, but if you look at the records of the teams each one beat, you will again see that Fitz and the Bucs actually beat a few good teams, whereas Jameis’ best games came against inferior competition.
Now again, to be as clear as I can, I am not saying that Fitzpatrick is better than Winston, but I am saying that America’s QB, ProBowler, #1 First Overall Pick in the NFL draft SHOULD be better (in his 3rd and 4th seasons in the NFL) than the journeyman, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
BTW: (ducks his head and runs for cover) MG8 has had 22 starts during his NFL career…………………… and has a record of 6 – 16???
tickrdr
————————————————————————————
BTW: “Good”(last 7 games) Jameis and the Bucs scored 14 vs. Saints, 12 vs. Ravens, and 20 vs. Cowboys. Thank God, those were his best games ever!!!!!
BTW#2: Did you know that same awful defense created ELEVEN turnovers over those last seven games?
tickrdr
April 5th, 2019 at 1:44 pm
@defense rules….so Winston losing week 17 against falcons was his fault right? 30 points should be enough to win, if only he played defensive end, corner, etc.
April 5th, 2019 at 2:03 pm
Let’s face it, this team has just lacked a killer instinct. They can never close the show. But why was that? A coach who was too affable and just not nasty enough producing a team that was also too polite?
Star on the team GMC widely criticized as not being “mean” enough.
QB gets suspended and has lacked the ability to emotionally as well as physically take over a game and lead not just the offense, but the entire team, defense, ST’s, coaches everybody are swept up by a team that simply refuses to be denied.
So ALLL of our hopes are pinned on BA. Can he and Bowles turn some nice guys into beasts on defense? How about on offense? Can BA instill in JW when to hold em and when to fold em? BA is clearly the key to all of this and our major hope.
Some get angry feeling he is getting anointed before he’s won a game..it’s not anointing…..it’s hoping and hope is all that a Buc’s fan ever really gets.
April 5th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
@DefenseRules:
Very nice post!
tickrdr
April 5th, 2019 at 2:21 pm
@josh:
Both the Bucs and Falcons defenses gave up lots of points.
Did JW3 outplay Matt Ryan?
tickrdr
April 5th, 2019 at 2:36 pm
Josh … THAT was your takeaway from what I wrote? From the rest of your comment it’s pretty obvious that the Bucs’ defense was responsible for that loss in your opinion. No question that they gave up 34 points to the high-flying Falcons (pretty good offense themselves), but look at some of the plays that impacted the score AND the defense:
o Atlanta intercepted Jameis around mid-field in the 3rd qtr, then went on to score a TD & Pt After … 7 points for them.
o Bucs defense intercepted Matt Ryan in the 4th qtr & gave it to our offense at the Atlanta 34 yd line … Bucs went on to score a TD, BUT went for 2 pts and blew it … 6 points for us instead of 7.
o Bucs offense scored another TD in the 4th qtr, BUT went for 2 pts and blew it … 6 pts for us instead of 7.
We lost 34-32. Had Koetter just kicked the extra point each time, score would’ve been tied and we MIGHT have won the game eventually. Had the Bucs defense NOT intercepted Matt Ryan in the 4th qtr, Bucs offense couldn’t have scored a TD … but the Falcons MIGHT HAVE. Had Jameis NOT been intercepted, Falcons couldn’t have scored on that turnover and the Bucs offense MIGHT have scored on that drive.
LOTS of MIGHT HAVEs and IFs, but you know what Josh? You credited Jameis & the Bucs’ offense with a lot more than you credited the defense with. The biggest FACT of that game though is that the Bucs LOST, 34-32. And they lost as a team.
April 5th, 2019 at 2:49 pm
“And yet, the Bucs went 2-4 in that stretch. And yet, our offense scored at an alarming rate of 21.5 PPG average, while our putrid defense gave up an alarming 22.5 PPG average. ”
let’s look at those losses, starting with just the Saints game:
Saints 28-14
The offense had us up 14-3 at the half.
Opening drive Nassib forces a Brees fumble. Koetter in Saints territory goes classic scared Koetter of run-run-pass that fails and we miss a 40 yard FG.
Force a quick punt from the Saints.
Winston puts together a slight clock killing drive getting us to about halfway through the 3rd quarter. However the punt is blocked, and the defense gives up a really quick 30 yard scoring drive.
So now with 4 minutes left in the 3rd it’s a 14-11 game instead of 17-3 with just average adequate special teams play.
Next drive bad protection leads to 2 sacks in 3 plays and a punt giving the Saints good field position because the sacks backed us up.
Saints go on to easily march down our throats and take a 18-14 lead.
Next drive
Peyton barber 4 yard rush
2 penalties by Demar Dotson puts us in 3rd and 11 which we don’t convert (most teams don’t)
We punt 60 yards but bad coverage gives the Saints the ball at midfield.
Defense folds like a lawn chair for a quick scoring drive.
Saints 25-14 with 7 minutes left. Game basically in hand at that point.
Next drive Winston has no protection again and takes a huge sack on a desperate 3rd & 10 and we punt.
Saints kill clock and kick a FG just for hell of it.
I see:
-HORRIFIC special teams causing an 11 point swing in that game at the most critical juncture
-a folding defense in the 4th when they could have kept us alive in the game
-horrific o-line execution when the other team knew we had to pass – in terms of penalties and failed assignments
So yeah not sure how we put this one on Winston….
April 5th, 2019 at 2:57 pm
@DR
Winston had 4 TD passes too in addition to the 1 INT.
The defense gave up 31 points by first few minutes of the 4th quarter.
Compared to NFL average QB – Jameis Winston balled out. 2nd best rating that week only behind Brady.
Compared to the NFL average defense – the Bucs sucked a4ss hardcore.
Period. End of story. Yeah the INT was bad. And 34 points given up is disgusting.
April 5th, 2019 at 3:22 pm
If he’s that effing great, why in the EFF are we having this debate? Answer…because he’s NOT great. We’ve had this debate for FOUR FREAKING YEARS now. This “I think he’s a good human being” (per Bucco Bruce) will never bring us to a championship….period. Oh, yeah, let’s blame the defense. Or the kikcer. Or the coach. Or Jackson. Or the Uber driver. Sheeshhh….
April 5th, 2019 at 3:29 pm
tickrdr what you failed to mention in your clearly bias post is that Jameis had terrific games vs Atlanta, NE and Buffalo in 2017 that were all very good teams but we lost. See people like you who just don’t want Jameis here no matter what he does just cannot understand that WE WILL NOT WIN until the other parts of the team are at least average.
April 5th, 2019 at 3:38 pm
Lord C … I’ll say it again. You win or lose as a TEAM. The Saints game that you so eloquently described demonstrates that IMO. Bucs’ offense ONLY scored 14 points. Bucs not-so-special teams contributed to the loss in a very clear fashion.
Yes, the Bucs’ defense ALLOWED 28 points, most of them in the 2nd half. They also FORCED 2 turnovers resulting in short fields for the offense … one resulted in a Bucs score; the other resulted in nothing (even the FG was missed). And BTW, Jameis was 18-for-38 for 213 yds with 4 sacks (representing 39 yds lost), all of which were drive-killers.
Bucs’ offense had ELEVEN drives in that game … 2 TDs, 2 missed FGs, 1 blocked punt, 1 INT and 5 Punts. Bucs offense did ZERO in the 3rd & 4th qtrs, whereas the Saints offense put up 3 TDs & a FG to gain the win. Now the question LC: Was it the Bucs’ defense that lost the game in the 2nd half or the Bucs’ offense because they didn’t score? Or was it the Bucs’ S/Ts because they missed 2 FGs AND allowed a blocked punt that resulted in a short field TD? My conclusion remains the same: You win or lose as a TEAM.
April 5th, 2019 at 4:01 pm
@DR
Agree team game.
Our offensive line = drive killers. Not Winston. At least that game specifically.
That’s my point.
That’s the context.
That loss specifically was on (in order IMO)
-special teams (almost single-handidly)
-offensive line (sacks AND penalties that killed 4 drives)
-defense
-dirk turtle
There are games that are on Winston to do better. But he was f*cked that game by his team on all 3 phases (o-line/D/special teams)
April 5th, 2019 at 4:11 pm
tickdr knows qb’s…. how’d glennon do in Chicago again???? How’d all that outstanding math you calculated translate to the win column??? Jameis is the only hope this minor league franchise has. Most talented player with the most upside this franchise has had since Sapp so might as well accept it!
April 5th, 2019 at 4:25 pm
@NDOG:
You have asked previously just what would some fans expect from Winston to think he was improving.
For me, it would start with, at MINIMUM, throwing twice as many TDs as INTs;
a TD/INT ratio of at least 2:1.
Second, a TD percentage greater than 5.0% or more, which he finally reached this last year.
And finally, his TD% MINUS his INT% needs to be greater than 3.0 or more, which is the threshold for most of the QBs in the playoffs.
As Defense Rules correctly points out, it is a team game. Therefore, it does help if the defense, running game, and special teams play improves; however the QB’s play should meet the above standards fairly consistently in order to be judged “good” QB play, even if his passing yards, completion percentage, and QBR are “good”, ESPECIALLY since his pedigree is the #1 overall first pick in the draft.
In other words, it is great if a QB limits turnovers like Alex Smith, but at the very same time, he must throw enough TD passes to win the game. Yes, JW3 limited turnovers those last several games, and threw the ball out of bounds at times, but at the same time the offense did NOT score many points! You need BOTH from the play of an “elite” QB.
tickrdr
tickrdr
April 5th, 2019 at 4:27 pm
@Lord C … “dirk turtle”? Agree with all the rest LC, but I’m sure that ‘Dirk Turtle’ is what will stick with me. So apropos.
April 5th, 2019 at 4:33 pm
Hi, tmaxcon:
You must have missed this above.
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“BTW: (ducks his head and runs for cover) MG8 has had 22 starts during his NFL career…………………… and has a record of 6 – 16???”
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Mike Glennon, totally “heartless” 3rd round pick, mostly rookie and 2nd year stats.
America’s QB, ProBowler, #1 first overall pick in the NFL draft, “the only hope this minor league franchise has”, Jameis Winston, 3rd and 4th years in the same offensive system, had 22 starts during the last two years, for a record of ……………………… 6 – 16 ?????????
tickrdr
April 5th, 2019 at 4:41 pm
tickrdr
forget all those percentages. all he has to do is WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! Not every qb wins the same way…. favre was a turnover machine yet has twice as many playoff wins as the ENTIRE BUCS FRANCHISE IN 42 YEARS…. your conservative philosophy is NOT the only way to win especially now that the league is a passing and penalty league with NO defense. Chuck Knoll would appreciate your math but it’s a different league and taking chances will cause picks but it will also cause big plays which I fully understand is a foreign concept to a bucfan. risk versus reward and the way the zebras chuck flags you are just as likely to pick up first downs with penalty on bad throws. again you are thinking like the ignorant one dimensional failure dungy the clown and his conservative career losing playoff record….
April 5th, 2019 at 4:53 pm
cancer93’s soft arse and his girls cost far more games in the last 4 years than winston’s turnovers…. no one can blow a lead as fast as cancer93 and his girls…. lot of selective memory going here as usual. no one rewrites history better than bucfan though…
April 5th, 2019 at 6:02 pm
Joe got the Jameis fanatics rolling with this post. Good job.
By the way Jameis passer rating for those final 7 games were up as well. I still appreciate the passer rating as a guide over the ESPN QBR.
ESPN made up the QBR to essentially state that a QB with a rating of 50 was average. Total QBR was developed by a team at ESPN Stats & Information Group including Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver, Alok Pattani, Albert Larcada, and Menlo College professor Ben Alamar. The group also received input from ESPN analysts Trent Dilfer, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski. Total QBR was developed based on analysis of 60,000 NFL plays between 2008-2010, and was unveiled on August 5, 2011. The formula was modified in 2012 and again in 2013.
Controversy erupted when the Total QBR system gave the Denver Broncos’ Tim Tebow a higher rating than the Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers in their respective Week 5 contests in 2011. Noting that Rodgers completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, while Tebow completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, and six rushes for 38 yards and a touchdown, in a loss to the San Diego Chargers.
Jameis ranks for seasons in QBR are:
2015 – 19 (Dalton 3)
2016 – 12 (Prescott 3, Taylor 9)
2017 – 18 (Kennum 2, Bortles 12)
2018 – 8 (Rodgers 14).
By comparison using the longer running passer rating:
2015 – 14
2016 – 11
2017 – 22
2018 – 26
April 5th, 2019 at 6:15 pm
Still in moderation since ~ 4:30pm.
tickrdr
April 5th, 2019 at 8:47 pm
Not really fair, by the time we got to those last 6 games we knew we already had a losing season. When you had local media personalities calling for us to tank for a higher draft pick. .
So without pressure Jameis played in those last 6 games more conservatively taking care of the ball and actually kept us in games despite our leaky defense. I truly believe JW presses too much and he’s goes brain numb. I’m hoping the whisperer can help him calm down and play smart consistently.
April 6th, 2019 at 12:26 am
Jameis Winston is a great quarterback with elite arm talent. He’s not an elite quarterback yet, but the talent is all there. Go JW3!
April 6th, 2019 at 1:17 am
Buccluck,
How many NFL QB’S have, as described, elite arm talent?
The league has 32 starting QB’S, where is winston ranked “arm talent” in comparison with His peers.
If He’s 10th , for example, then it’s not possible to consider Him elite. Top 3 , imo, is an elite grouping by defintion. Top 5 I believe it’s possible to make a compelling case that the group is , in fact, elite.
April 6th, 2019 at 6:17 am
Would be great if the momentum from the final games last year *can* carry over. Taking on a new offense/system in his new, 250lb body is my biggest concern.
April 6th, 2019 at 5:24 pm
T REX
“Just endless excuses…like the last four years. It’s never his fault.”
20-year old rookie QB coming into a Dirk Koetter staff is a legit excuse.