Free Agent Grade? Mixed Bag
April 5th, 2019
Bucs GM Jason Licht.
Did the Bucs have a good free agency season or not? Many fans would scoff and say they certainly did not.
The Bucs lost a starting middle linebacker and a valuable wide receiver who was the team’s most consistent offensive player.
An NFL suit looked at what the Bucs did in free agency and told Mike Sando of BSPN what the team signed may not be worth the draft compensation picks the team forfeited due to signing mid-level free agents.
Back to the Bucs. They lost UFAs Kwon Alexander and Adam Humphries to deals sizable enough to return 2020 third- and fourth-round comp picks, according to Nick Korte’s projections at OverTheCap.com. However, Tampa Bay disqualified itself from receiving those comp picks by signing Shaquil Barrett and Breshad Perriman to deals averaging $4 million per year. Are Barrett and Perriman valuable enough to sacrifice that kind of draft capital?
“Not at all,” an exec said.
Six other teams also lost more than one UFA to deals averaging at least $9 million per season. Korte’s projections at OverTheCap.com show that all six of those teams — New England, Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia, Washington and Seattle — remain eligible for at least one 2020 comp pick in the third or fourth rounds. Tampa Bay is the lone exception.
“I like the Shaquil Barrett signing for what they got him for,” an exec said, setting aside the comp-pick implications. “They got Deone Bucannon, who had his best years with Todd Bowles. I like Kentrell Brice as a lower-priced guy. They did not pay over-the-top money for anyone, which was smart. Perriman was pricier than expected and I did not have Donovan Smith rated that high, but they obviously did not want to lose him.”
Here’s the thing: Those middle-round draft picks the Bucs lost in signing Barrett and Perriman may have been able to contribute in 2020. The Bucs, and specifically Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians, need contribution now, not maybe in the future.
Joe doesn’t see Arians, 66, hanging around for more than four years, win or lose. If he doesn’t win in two years he’s likely gone and Joe wouldn’t be floored if the Bucs lost badly this year, and Arians experiences health problems again and has to step away.
So as much as those draft picks might help down the road, they don’t do anything for the Bucs in 2019 and maybe not in 2020.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:06 am
Not worried about losing the comp picks……next year anyway…..we need players now…..and we need them to produce. Perriman was necessary because of the Djax trade (surprised Joe didn’t take the opportunity to remind us of the “malcontent”…….
Barrett was needed because of the slim LB corps….loss of Kwon, Taylor & maybe Beckwith….
April 5th, 2019 at 8:08 am
So, if I read the above correctly, the Bucs added little for themselves in 2019 while giving up two of their best players. Also, if I’m reading correctly, Bruce Arians is a two year, three year at best, head coach. Doesn’t sound promising.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:10 am
That thinking is why the Bucs will never be fixed!!!!!!!! Instead of stock piling picks, ( which the good teams seem to be able to do, even though the sheep say the formula is complicated) That every season is in that win now, all or nothing!!!!!!! That is how you end up with all backups and old JPP on the Dline!!!! One of the most expensive that has to be blown up the following year!!!!!!! Every year is the same plan, patch up, overpay and build around the wrong players, Sell hope and fresh starts with make or break pressure that always breaks!!!!!!!!!!!!
2019 season will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 5th, 2019 at 8:28 am
I could definitely see the Bucs giving Arians health problems
April 5th, 2019 at 8:29 am
I get the picks and missed opportunities for next draft
However , Barret and Perriman (if he can stay healthy ) will play a lot of snaps on sundays. Count on that.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:38 am
Weird national league ppl think GMC is average and now D Smith is overpriced, seems about right for the majority of bucs posters on this site…..5-11 GM making 3-13 moves
April 5th, 2019 at 8:39 am
With the changes in defensive scheme, draft picks which will surely lean heavy on defensive side, the Bucs can and should see at least a 4 game turnaround in wins from last year IF Jameis cuts his turnovers in 1/2 and they have a decent running game (4.2 ypc or better)
April 5th, 2019 at 8:39 am
Tampabucfan
Agreed. I actually just sent same thing for most part.
I think they are saying nothing on Beckwith cause he is likely done and they don’t want to tip their hand on what they may or may not draft. Aka devin white.
Physicals already taken place. And they would have been excstatic if he could finally be ready for this year and would want to tell the world. Yet we get nothing?
His dang buddy wrecked his nice car and his career.
Wonder if they are still friends.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:42 am
Seems like the key to comp picks is to sign top FAs to short term contracts while they are young enough to attract a good salary from another team…..or, don’t resign your top draft picks after they complete their rookie contracts (Kwon)
And….FYI…we missed on a top comp opportunity with D. Smith.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:46 am
Just as asinine grading free agency as it is the draft before any games are even played. Impossible to have any clue how these guys will perform this year with new teammates in a new system (for most). How about we revisit this article in January and then we can have an informed opinion about both classes. Until then it’s pointless.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:50 am
8:49am – just started
Steve I (of JOE) is on 820am with Rock Riley now.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:50 am
@Tampabaybucfan
Now go back and look at all those over paid high-price free agents that the sheep cheered for and thought they were the “final piece” and instead of having all those extra picks!!!!!!!!!
Which are even more valuable since the league changed the rule and that they can be traded in the draft!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2019 will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 5th, 2019 at 9:10 am
If that. Does happen and the Bucs do lose badly and Bruce has health “problems” once more… (not that he doesn’t have any but the Buc play could sure fast track them) then what??? We are stuck with Jason Gump (he should have been and probably would be fired) and the Glazer boys and girl who can’t put together a winning product as if their balance sheet depended on it! DARK TIMES
April 5th, 2019 at 9:16 am
we won the offseason just by sending dirk and smitty packing!!!!!!!
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 5th, 2019 at 9:23 am
Comp pick calculations are a complicated process. Don’t profess to understand. I have read from others who do profess to know calculations say that if either of Brent Grimes, Chris Conte, or Jaquizz Rodgers sign before May 10th, the Bucs will retain the comp pick for Kwon Alexander. That assumes the Bucs don’t add any free agents before that time. They are free to add any released players.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:23 am
With the Bucs drafting poorly for nearly 16 years what would it matter what comp picks they received?
Until this teams drafts 2-3 contributors in every draft they will suck.
#pleasestopsucking
April 5th, 2019 at 9:26 am
@FLBoy
Agree with your thoughts all the way down to the final sentence.
This talk is certainly not factual and has no bearing on the wins and losses but I’m not sure it’s pointless.
You are correct however that it’s just speculation and talk and not necessarily connected to reality. The point is to give football junkies their fix when there are no real drugs (actual games) to be found.
And of course here at JBF it also gives the “Chicken Littles” a platform to scream the sky is falling the sky is falling.
And then of course our nattering nabobs of negativity need an excuse to wallow in the misery of past failures.
So I would posit the chatter is not totally pointless although I certainly take your point…the chatter is just that…CHATTER not reality.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:29 am
That doesn’t sound accurate. From my understanding, the amount of money in the contract and playing time are big factors when determining compensatory picks. It’s not just “we lost 4 UFAs, but signed 4 UFAs, so they cancel out”. There is more to it than that. If Humphries plays significantly more than Perriman (we already know his contract is a hell of a lot more), it’s considered a bigger loss for the team. The whole purpose of the compensatory pick system is to offset those losses.
Please let me know if I’m wrong.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:39 am
They did not pay over-the-top money for anyone, which was smart.
They didnt pay that money beacuase we didnt have it, not because our GM is Einstein…….
We are with a horrific cap situation with several holes in the roster, and now comes mi opinion who many do not share, we have much less talent in the team than people think….and we keep pointing fingers on Koetter, Lovie Schiano and so on………The biggest problem on our beloved Bucs the has been management and in lesser average coaching.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:43 am
Seminole Bill … Agree with you that “Bruce Arians is a two year, three year at best, head coach”. And yes, at THIS point it “Doesn’t sound promising”, BUT … the draft is still ahead and it COULD make all the difference, IF we draft well and fill the STARTING HOLES that we’ve got right now.
Bucs’ offense is pretty well set IMO EXCEPT for a RG and second RB, although it lacks DEPTH of any significance. Bucs’ defense could survive IMO with JPP, Nassib, Barrett & Gholston as our DEs (oh ya, and Spence IF he makes the team). It could survive with Vea, GMC and Allen as our DTs (unless GMC is released of course, then things change). It could even survive with Justin Evans & Whitehead as our Safeties.
But I still question relying on VHIII to start opposite Davis at outside CB (because of his injury history AND past performance outside). Ryan Smith will hopefully flourish under Todd Bowles, but the rest of our CBs (and Safeties) don’t impress me. Sure would be nice to sign an experienced outside corner.
Our LBs concern me most of all though. LVD has been up & down during his career, and I hope that for close to $10 mil this is one of his UP years. Kevin Minter as our middle LB scares me, partly because of his injury history these past 2 years & part because he never stood out before that when he was healthy. Bucannon sounds promising, but I doubt that 211 lb LBs strike fear in the hearts of TEs & Fullbacks tasked to take them out or WRs who are 20-plus lbs bigger than they are. Only time will tell though.
Hopefully BA drafts a MLB (DEVIN WHITE), a RG (Chris Lindstrom), a DE (Jaylon Ferguson), a RB (Damien Harris) then … whoever.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:51 am
The only loss is Hump however either Godwin or Brate would do well in the slot. Even RoJo could play slot. We still have other holes that are much more concerning and I think the Bucs are going to have to rely on some guys that aren’t very talented or are injury prone at CB,LB, S, RG and RT. The draft won’t fill all these holes this year and the second rate free agents we signed aren’t going to help much either. Jason Gump has made a lot of mistakes and put us in Cap Hell this year, so I expect another bad season….and another underwhelming draft.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:53 am
Maybe this is why the Glazers decided on Bruce Arians to be the new Head coach. He has a built in GTFOH clause built into his contract.
“If he doesn’t win in two years he’s likely gone and Joe wouldn’t be floored if the Bucs lost badly this year, and Arians experiences health problems again and has to step away.”
So the new Boss same as the old Bosses only get a two-three year window to win or be replaced.
So much for the confidence in the new coach and staff. If he has another change of heart (like a QB who changes the play called at will, and multiple INT’s game after game equaling loss after loss) he will have health issues and step away.
That sure would be what I would want to know if I was a FA looking at Tampa Bay as a next place to play.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:04 am
When i went to the bucs office building most of the video showing the exciting plays from last year is about Fits and Djax
April 5th, 2019 at 10:04 am
This team has only gotten worse since Arians was hired. All I see is a lot of hype for less than nothing.
At this rate, Arians won’t be coaching after two years…and he’ll leave behind a destroyed roster, just like Gruden did.
It’s nice how the media, fans and Arians himself are promoting the myth, but I cannot even say it’s all talk…It’s bad moves too.
Also, if these free agents don’t make the final roster? Hello comp picks.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:10 am
Loyaltotheend Section 312 Says:
“Until this teams drafts 2-3 contributors in every draft they will suck. ”
Fairweather fan.
Only in one draft sin ce Licht became GM has the team not had 3-4 contributors in the draft. Sometimes more.
Don’t speak x.com without honest facts.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:12 am
And before someone claims we don’t have a roster to destroy, that’s not true at all. The destruction has been on offense, where our best players are.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:13 am
Ignore the ‘x.com’ above. No idea why my tablet added it.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:33 am
With only $1.79M in salary cap, not much the Bucs can do and it looks like they are not going to get a trade for GMC. Arians health won’t hold up after he sees what a clown show we have going on over at OBP. This season should be interesting.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:34 am
Nick Korte’s supposed projections for 2020 comp picks for the Bucs…is wrong.
Aside from the fact that we needed Barrett, not so much Perriman (but a good contract), Korte’s projections are wrong.
Not to mention the excerpt from the article above…”Six other teams also lost more than one UFA to deals averaging at least $9 million per season. Korte’s projections at OverTheCap.com show that all six of those teams — New England, Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia, Washington and Seattle — remain eligible for at least one 2020 comp pick in the third or fourth rounds. Tampa Bay is the lone exception.”
The size and duration of the contracts to both Kwon and Hump will not be nullified by Barrett’s $4 mill 1 year, and Perriman’s $4 mill 1 year…deals.
Korte’s just wrong. And who gives a damn about that dude, anyway…
April 5th, 2019 at 10:49 am
ben Says:
“When i went to the bucs office building most of the video showing the exciting plays from last year is about Fits and Djax”
((((((((
Nobody cares.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:56 am
Buccaneer Bonzai says:
“Don’t speak x.com without honest facts.”
and
“Ignore the ‘x.com’ above. No idea why my tablet added it.”
((((((((((((((((((((((((
No. You probably just forgot that you typed it.
April 5th, 2019 at 10:59 am
@StPeteBucs,
Understand needing to provide content to appease the masses, totally get that part of it. Just always kills me when seeing the “winners & losers” articles (in any sport) before the actual tangible results of those moves are available to dissect. Not a fan of mindless debate, but that’s just me lol.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:16 am
“and thought they were the “final piece” and instead of having all those extra picks!!!!!!!!!”
1 – The only decent comp pick in years we could have gotten was for Mike Glennon. Signings last year didn’t cancel that out. It was Desean Jackson that did. Don’t recall you bashing that move.
2. – I bet you can’t find a single quote of anyone saying some free agents were the “final piece”
3. what is your problem man?
April 5th, 2019 at 11:22 am
@JOE – I get the win-now thing; but when has signing a punter and 4th string speed WR in March been critical to winning now?
As of now signing that punter could have literally cost us a 3rd round pick.
As of now Pinion & Perriman are costing us a future 3rd and 4th.
That’s why back when it happened I said that Licht has somehow now spent a 2nd rounder on a kicker and a 3rd rounder on a punter.
Just draft this class’ best punter in the 6th! That’s better value than the deal we signed and the future pick we gave up!
How fans like ourselves can see this but the FO can’t is insane to me. 3rd and 4th round picks are valuable and if you don’t think they are valuable then it’s because your franchise sucks at drafting and is going to be in perennial hell anyway. The win-now bandaid mentality is the last thing this sh1t franchise needs.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:24 am
This is another reason why we suck!
We refuse to play the game and accrue extra mid round draft picks- traceable assets.
We would possibly get a late 3 and 4 next year for losing Kwon and Hump, but we paid enough FAs to cancel that out. Let’s see how our FA acquisitions do?
Remember, Kendall Beckwith was a late 3- compensatory pick- of which Licht traded up for.
I’d rather ha e Kendall Beckwith than Shaq Barret.
🐑 🐑 🐑
April 5th, 2019 at 11:24 am
Tradeable assets*
April 5th, 2019 at 11:27 am
You pay one year of a FA- Barrett at $4 million- and we have no cap. When we could not do that- and draft the next Kendall Beckwith who would be on an affordable four year deal.
Good teams maintain their quality by this very method. Stupid teams, like ours, don’t play smart.
Can Eric Neanader, Chaim Bloom, and Matt Silverman twilight for the Bucs? Why not, seriously?
April 5th, 2019 at 11:34 am
Arians wanted speed at receiver. Right away. It was clear DeSean Jackson (at $10 million no less) was incompatible.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:58 am
“Arians wanted speed at receiver. Right away. It was clear DeSean Jackson (at $10 million no less) was incompatible”
True. BA needs his speed. And it’s hard to say Berret or Buccanon werent necessary signings with the D overhaul.
Looking at available FAs now to sign later the only guy maybe worth it is like Mike Wallace for speed. Funny Kelvin Benjamin is a FA. Same with Carlos Henderson who the Broncos drafted over Chris Godwin. lol @ them.
They may draft a speed WR and end up cutting Perriman. Pretty sure if they do that they are back on the compensatory pathway to a pick.
The punter signing was atrocious though. Multi year deal so no walking on that. That signing is absolutely going to cost us either a 3rd or 4th round pick unless we cut Perriman & Buccanon or Berret early which sounds super unlikely.
So yes everyone – as of now Licht spent a future 4th round pick on a punter. Gump indeed.
April 5th, 2019 at 12:01 pm
I don’t believe this guy knows for sure whether or not the bucs lost the comp pick yet. A more responsible way of reporting this would have been to say they put the picks at risk by signing the FAs. Just know we want to see Conte, Grimes or Rogers to get signed somewhere. We’ll know more after May 5.
April 5th, 2019 at 1:00 pm
Why does it seem like @BuccOff is the only smart one? I don’t buy this guy’s projection over at OTC. Do we have any 5 year retrospective accuracy rates on this fool to see if over 90% of the time over say the last 5 years, that he’s been right ahead of time on all teams’ comp picks??
The size and length of our 2 biggest FA contracts received will have a ton to do with it. Even if it’s only 1 comp pick 3rd or 4th round in 2020, still makes this hack wrong.
What a JAG….
April 5th, 2019 at 1:47 pm
If the team decides to move on from Winston, Arians will be out of here and Bowles or Leftwich will manage the team. It’s pretty simple, Arians was brought in to evaluate Winston for a new contract…If he concludes Winston isn’t a franchise player worth $25 million per year, Winston is done and Arians will collect a check. Glazers either save themselves big money or finally find a coach/qb combo to get the team winning again. If Winston goes down early in the season, things get dicey because now they don’t know what they’ve got after 5 yrs of play. IMO….the smart move continues to be to draft a QB in the 3rd-4th rd to groom as a “back up in case Winston goes down or the team concludes its time to move on