Brian Billick, Mark Dominik, Gil Brandt, Jameis Winston & Ratios
October 27th, 2018
Failing basic evaluation
Once upon a Bucs time, Mike Glennon threw 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 13 games as a rookie and then was quickly evaluated by Bucs officials to be worse than newcomer QB Josh McCown.
Only the Bucs!
Anyway, it was that strong touchdown-to-interceptions ratio that sprouted the Mike Glennon Mob, not Glennon’s 4-9 record as a starter in that 2013 season. Some fans were obsessed with how well Glennon protected the football and still put the ball in the end zone.
Fast forward to 2018, and Jameis Winston has yet to match that Glennon touchdown-to-interceptions ratio in any season. Unfortunately, Jameis gives the football away like it’s Halloween candy.
In the past few days, Super Bowl-winning head coach Brian Billick, legendary personnel man and scouting guru Gil Brandt and former Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik all took their shots at Jameis for his poor TD-INT ratio.
Jameis has five touchdown passes and six picks this season. His season-best ratio came last year, 19 TDs to 11 interceptions.
Dominik was barking on WDAE-AM 620 that Jameis needs to climb his way back to a 2-1 ratio this year but really needs to hit 3-1 because that’s what Bucs officials expect.
That prompted Joe to research NFC South QBs in the area of TD-INT ratios.
In his third NFL season (2010), Matt Ryan threw 28 touchdowns vs. 9 picks, and followed that up with 29/12 in 2011. Cam Newton only broke a 2-1 ratio in his fifth season. That was his 2015 MVP campaign in which he had 35 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.
Like Ryan, Drew Brees broke through in his third season starting for the Chargers back in 2004, with 27 TDS and 7 picks.
Bucs fans have seen elite ratios in person. Josh Freeman’s 25 touchdowns versus 6 interceptions at 22 years old turned heads around the NFL.
And in the Bucs’ last playoff season, the good ol’ days of 2007, Jeff Garcia threw 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions in 13 starts.
Joe hopes Jameis can straighten out these turnovers. With all the Tampa Bay weapons, it sure feels like Jameis should have no problem reaching at least a 2-1 TD/INT ratio in the final 10 games of this season.
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October 27th, 2018 at 11:50 am
Great article, Joe!
Thank you for bringing up the TD-INT ratio! I hope for a 2:1 TD:Turnover Ratio.
October 27th, 2018 at 12:16 pm
Take the research a little deeper, Joe, and compare pass attempts.
October 27th, 2018 at 12:21 pm
The Bangles-lovin’ ex-GM Mark Dominik hired Greg Schiano and let that guy walk like an Egyptian all over him. As fans, we had a lot of manic Mondays after Sunday losses during his tenure. That’s all you need to know about his record as an evaluator of talent!
October 27th, 2018 at 12:45 pm
America’s Turnover Machine, Jameis Winston is alive and well in Tampa Bay. He brings his renowned turnover roadshow to Cincinnati this week and the skies is the limit
October 27th, 2018 at 12:56 pm
The only stat/ratio I judge a QB by is team record
While he’s the starting QB
Mike Glennon 6-16
Josh Freeman 25-36
Jameis Winston 18-29
It don’t look pretty for any of them
October 27th, 2018 at 1:09 pm
Dr. Stroud… What has Licht done to get ur approval over Dom ? after 5 yrs aren’t the bucs still short of talent?
October 27th, 2018 at 1:22 pm
ben
They are short of talent
And a 25-45 record
And they can’t blame it all on Lovie
17-21 since they fired Lovie
October 27th, 2018 at 1:24 pm
I agree with this, but still the number 1 goal is Wins. So if the defense can bail you out or if you run the ball in the end zone like they did last week, the goal is achieved. If Dominick knew as much as he thinks he does, he’d still be the Bucs’ GM 😂.
October 27th, 2018 at 1:33 pm
@ben: that’s a great question, and I would be glad to comment on GM Licht, his musical tastes, and the moves that he has made that have risked setting this franchise back another ten years. However, I was responding to an article focused mainly on how many commentators, including The Bangles-lovin’ ex-GM Mark Dominik, are “barking” about the current QB.
October 27th, 2018 at 1:39 pm
Fitz is 12 TDS to 3 INTs this year, right? Isn’t that 3 to 1?
October 27th, 2018 at 1:42 pm
I’m glad the skinny joe calls it like it is.
October 27th, 2018 at 1:48 pm
It gets really ugly when you add funbles
October 27th, 2018 at 2:01 pm
Let’s not forget the best QB , not named Winston, in Tampa Bay history.
Steve Young…11 TD’ s vs 21 Ints. His greatness was readily apparent in the 3 victories over 2 seasons.
Freeman and Winston ….
Young #-!/? Still kvetching over letting him get away, No one, not even Madam Blavisky saw it coming.
October 27th, 2018 at 2:10 pm
Wrong Bringbucs… 4 to 1.
October 27th, 2018 at 2:14 pm
John Elway didn’t have the 2-1, TD-INT ratio until his 11th season
But he won over 90 games during that period
October 27th, 2018 at 2:45 pm
I love when Facts are presented not bias.
FSU robots see how that works?
October 27th, 2018 at 2:52 pm
I about to the point where I want Jameis off this horrible franchise. When is the last time we saw a screen pass to a runningback? When is the last time we saw one of those touch passes where it is basically a running play. You see EVERY OTHER top QB gets those kind of throws except Jameis and Rodgers. What is being asked of Jameis is much more than most QB in the game today. But that’s ok just let Jameis go cause dropping back and throwing it deep every play. You’re all right Fitz is much better and should be playing. Cause a team that has no variety and throws deep every play has always worked in the NFL. Oh wait that has never worked.
October 27th, 2018 at 3:04 pm
Has Jameis ever been 2:1?
October 27th, 2018 at 3:23 pm
NDog,
If Jameis wanted to throw for a yd or two He has the ability to audible. He’s even got the ability (depends of personnel) to audible to a screen play. Jameis does more because that’s Who He is. You want Glennon , sure seems like that’s the chorus coming from more and more fans.
Short game now…Last week last year it’s defense running game o line special teams……..This week…..Magically it’s “He throws too far”.
UnGD believable…..It’s like wack a mole with the excuses…
October 27th, 2018 at 3:40 pm
Why would Winston change now after all these years? He’s gonna throw around 12 more interceptions. This shouldn’t surprise anyone.
October 27th, 2018 at 4:21 pm
Ndog I’m with you I’m so ready for Jamies to leave this poor franchise and this poor fan base. Cause he will be great with some where else. He will have a chance of better coaching and a better fan base and team . Jamies has been ask to do more than any other young quarterback in the NFL. Wentz had a good defense and running game and now the running game is not as good look at Philly now . Look at Goff with his running back most of Goff passing yards comes off of play actions cause of his running game . When teams know you can’t run the ball then they drop every body in coverage. Jamies throws for more down field passes then any one so the ints are going to be high risk . So the sooner the better for Jamies to leave. Even when he plays good or we win this fan base still try to blame him for something. Jamies just leave this poor franchise and this poor fan base.
October 27th, 2018 at 4:29 pm
Freeman and Cam do not fit in this narrative because of their styles. Neither are great passers and Free who had the cannon of the arm could hit deep bombs and then next play miss a wide open swing pass throwing a ten yarder into the ground. He was horribly inconsistent! But he did have a strong arm which made his deep ball at least a “threat” but most importantly before genius Schiano stepped in and changed him…Free like Cam is a large beast and can create offense with his legs. They are two exceptions to how QB can be played. Cam is a decent passer but he is a GREAT running QB perhaps the best since Randall Cunningham.
My biggest fear for JW is whether he actually sees the field well.
I know all the squinting and the stories dating back to FSU days about his vision problems may be a clue.
Yes JW is a gambler and some interceptions are to be expected.
I get he sometimes tries to squeeze miracle passes into crowds and sometimes he gets away with it…sometimes not. I can live with that.
What I don’t get are the significant number of JW interceptions that look like he’s not even seeing who is out there…not getting caught forcing the ball but apparently not seeing LB’s and Safeties who are in position.
I expected this his rookie season…and year two..but year four?
He should be well educated in the NFL now and realize defensive alignments. I still seriously wonder how good his eyes are. I say this not as a Jameis hater…not as an apologist or excuse but perhaps a reason that might be addressed and fixed.
But then again perhaps this has all been investigated and one of you can tell me why doesn’t JW see the field? I can live with the gambling but the ints that come out of nowhere just blow my mind. Perhaps that is his Achilles heel…great arm…nice running ability…fierce competitor and good leader but if he doesn’t have the skill set to realize where defenders are on the field he’s got a major challenge!
October 27th, 2018 at 4:37 pm
I made an error
Jameis Winston 19-28 as Bucs starter
October 27th, 2018 at 5:04 pm
Need to start positiong for tua
Trade back next year for picks in the following draft
October 27th, 2018 at 5:26 pm
Joe BUCS fan
The site for Jameis bashing? I’ve never seen so much analyzing over 2 picks last Sunday on 62 freaking dropbacks! None of these F ING experts point out that Jameis is one of the top QBS on 3rd down conversion % but after a freaking win everyone in the media is worried about his two picks! what a joke
October 27th, 2018 at 5:31 pm
Worst fan base in the NFL and we prove it 8 Sundays a year at least. We don’t support the team, and most of the fans know nothing about football. But then again we also have a horrible media contingent that educates these people with straight trash. Why do you think this town has run off Steve Young, Doug Williams, Michael Bennett, Aquib Talib, Legarette Blount and countless others. We can’t the run the ball, have the worst defense in the league and the worst kicker in the league but yet our idiot fans blame the QB who is leading the #1 offense in football for our struggles. I mean do you morons even believe the stupidity you are spewing? Do you maybe someone, anyone is at a disavantage when the other team knows there is a 90% chance of you throwing the ball. That allows linebackers to get better drops, that allows the dline to get upfield, that allows the db’s to drop back at the snap and all of these favors the defense. But again despite that our passing is literally the only thing this does well yet our QB is ripped over and over by our “fans”. How much since does that make to any knowledge football fan?
October 27th, 2018 at 5:46 pm
I agree with NDOG! Jameis is the only reason the bucs even got another win.. remember the chicago game? you guys are idiots if you think Jameis is bad. half his ints are off tipped passes.. what does that tell you? the receiver dropped or tipped it himself. its not his fault the dude can’t catch
October 27th, 2018 at 5:51 pm
Where is Glennon at not? Chicago? Arizona?
October 27th, 2018 at 5:59 pm
Ndog
There’s a few ex-Bucs who have went on to have a successful career with other teams. The majority of the bums that they released, will go on to become bench players, or out of the league.
October 27th, 2018 at 6:06 pm
The Bucs has always had a roster of backups. This season is no different. But according to a lot of delusional fans. This team has a lot of talented players. For most of this franchise 42 year history. They have lacked adequate players at most positions. The few quality players that they have, will suffer from it.
There’s a reason why this team can’t get quality free agents to come here
There’s a reason why this team can’t get quality coaches to come here
This despite the huge amount of money that they throw at them
October 27th, 2018 at 6:08 pm
Why do some of you cats INSIST on Tua when he comes available in the draft?
First of all he ‘aint available until the NEXT draft.And if he WAS available ,I wouldn’t pick him because he is an Alabama quarterback. And NO Alabama qb has been any good in the NFL since JOE WILLIE NAMATH in the late 60s and KEN STABLER in the 70s. All the rest have sucked or didn’t play in the NFL.
Don’t believe me? Look it up for yourselves.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_starting_quarterbacks
October 27th, 2018 at 6:31 pm
BBROCKTACULAR
Actually Joe Namath wasn’t that good of a QB in the NFL
Sure he had that one ‘ magical’ year
But since this is about TD-INT ratio
Let’s take a peek at the Hall Of Fame inductee ,Joe Namath ratio
_ 173 TD
_ 220 INT
He actually got into the Hall Of Shame with those numbers
October 27th, 2018 at 6:35 pm
And these so called experts counting the F ING CHICAGO game? His first game back thrown into an IMPOSSIBLE SITUATION and he goes 16-20 w a TD AND 2 picks. Who gives a SPIT!!! Brian Billick is pissed because they fired Smith, his brother in law. Rick Stroud has mad love for DJAX and asked why DJAX only caught a couple passes. Who F ING cares. Jameis threw to 10 different receivers against the browns and 9 different receivers against Falcons & we r worried about F ING DJAX. This media is INSANE & so r the fans!!
October 27th, 2018 at 6:37 pm
Even Jameis 5 TD, 6 INT is better than Namath 173 TD, 220 INT ratio
I’m not counting Jameis 69 TD, 44 INT coming into the season
October 27th, 2018 at 6:38 pm
Hey Lakeland
Shows how much u know. In the 60’s QBS got killed so their #’s r not as good as today OK? Just thought I woukd educate u! GEEZ! Namath was one of the best of ALL TIME!! Get a life
October 27th, 2018 at 6:46 pm
I stand corrected. Stabler wasn’t all that either which bolsters my Alabama QB statement.
October 27th, 2018 at 6:47 pm
I stand corrected. Stabler wasn’t all that either which bolsters my Alabama QB statement.
As far as TD/INT ratio…
October 27th, 2018 at 6:54 pm
Man I will be happy when Jamies leave this poor franchise and this poor fan base. He will win somewhere else just like the rest of them. I’m tired of the Jamies bashing my self . Football is a team game that’s why Nick foles won a Superbowl. Watch tommorw . I remember when they said Winston had to throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns and he did they still blame him for the lost against the falcons. It don’t matter if Winston throw for 500 yards tommorw and 5 touchdowns they will still find something bad to say about that we won last week and they still got something to say. Trash fan base and trash franchise.
October 27th, 2018 at 7:02 pm
Joe Namath was the best ‘drunken’ BUM of all time
October 27th, 2018 at 7:11 pm
It takes a “Ignorant” person to say Joe Namath was one of the All Time greats
That’s taking Ignorancy to another level
October 27th, 2018 at 7:26 pm
BROCKTACULAR
Not only did Joe Namath have a 173 TD, 220 INT ratio
But the bum also had a losing career record
62-63-4
But according to this LUNATIC
He’s one of the all time greats
No way he should be in the Hall Of Shame
October 27th, 2018 at 7:34 pm
Mark2001, yes you are correct! How silly of me. Guess what field I did NOT major in?
However, I think Fitz threw one pick in the Chicago game which brings him to a 3 to 1 ratio, to be accurate.
The point is still obvious though, our real gun-slinger is on the bench.
October 27th, 2018 at 7:51 pm
Jameis talks about talking care of the football, but on the field the same problems keep raising it’s ugly head. At some point Jameis needs to stop talking and figure this thing out, or maybe that’s just who he is. I also wonder how Jameis would perform under coaches like: Andy Reid, Sean Mcvay, Dough Peterson and Kyle Shanahan(sp). Just look what Mcvay did for Jared Goff.
October 27th, 2018 at 8:12 pm
Ndog must be a stupid yankee since he hates Buc fans and wants our best player gone…..he probably wants Winston for his northeast team.
But ya gotta give him credit for the point he made. Winston plays in perhaps the most riskiest offense in the league(for sure more agressive the New Orleans) and everybody crys a fit when turnovers happen…….. If you don’t want turnovers then just don’t watch Dirk’s offense cause they are going to happen.
Hey but you go back and see how many times QBs attempt 50+ throws in a game without added interception numbers. I don’t have to look it up I already know.
October 27th, 2018 at 8:18 pm
Winstons ratio last week was 0:2. The ratio can’t get any worse. Yet we won.
Against atlata he hit the prescious 2:1 ratio and we lost.
Ya gotta be able to win in more ways then just passing in this league
October 27th, 2018 at 8:31 pm
Wait a minute! Didn’t the Bucs win last week? All is supposed to be right in the world…UNTIL we lose.
October 27th, 2018 at 9:23 pm
Glennon didn’t turn the ball over much meaning and since that’s all the Winston haters talk about it means they must have LOVED Glennon. Oh right, they DID love Glennon and wanted the Bucs to take a defensive player.
October 27th, 2018 at 10:21 pm
Try again JimmyJack born and raised in Tampa and been to every Bucs home game but one since 1994 except one. I wanted Jameis drafted more than most and still think he is going to be great. But I read the morons on this site daily and am sick of their clueless crap. In addition I sit in that stadium for each game and deal with other teams fans out cheer us in our own stadium, even the freaking Browns had a more lively crowd than us last week and they are THE BROWNS. It is disgusting being a Bucs fan we have half our fan base hating our starting QB, we never fill up our stadium and we have the dumbest fan base in the league and I know cause I listen to their stupid comments each game and have for awhile. That is if they don’t sell their ticket to a Giants, Cowboys Eagles. Steelers, Browns, Lions, Packers, Bears, Falcons, Saints, Panthers, or Redskins fan, like most weeks.
October 27th, 2018 at 10:36 pm
You have compared Winston to Favre when you say JW is a gunslinger just like Favre. Why don’t you complete the comparison and compare their TD to interception ratio and their won/loss record?
October 27th, 2018 at 11:27 pm
No turnovers makes this a winnable game. We cannot afford mistakes.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:09 am
NDog,
The fans who don’t believe in Winston or are labelled haters I have to believe want Winston to put it all together and be the “Franchise”. There’s lot’s of fans who are at a point that wins is all they want.
You have been around for awhile and I have to believe you know that all the “bottom line is w’ s” talk is B.S.. Winston doesn’t have to win to change 99% of the doubters minds. That I guarantee is 100% true. Winston eliminates those couple plays per game over a 4-5-6 week span, countiues doing what he has been doing -those 2 and wether the team wins or loses it won’t matter ‘re Winston. The fans will be on board the Winston express. Right now, it’s not the record that is the focus. It’s the coming together of our QB , improved play from the d individuals and unit , looking for Rojo to run like a 2nd rounder and a couple more things.
I have faith in Buc Fans. They know that the SB chip is not happening. Playoff appearance would be massive and the Bucs world would be looking to improve here and there and go further next year. What is causing a lot of Winston hate is fans seeing mistakes over and over. If He plays without causing the self inflicted injuries to his team , He is the diamond in the pile of buc poop. I believe fans can get behind him no matter what the score is.
If you don’t believe that, then think of it this way. You and a few others get all personal about it and put value in avg Joe fans opinion. 99.9% of fans could openly hate the man. The Glazers don’t give a rats az what you, me or any Tom dick and Joe thinks. They seem to support JW and really that’s the only side that matters. Winston is a buc and will be. Sooner he avoids the stupid train, the faster the fans start focusing on the 99 other problems with the team.
You rollin w Jaboo, glazers rollin w the boo…….Why you trippin about other chit.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:29 am
in a full 16 game season in this offense, jameis should throw approx 40 tds and 24 ints…
that’s an average of 2.5 tds and 1.5 ints per game
October 28th, 2018 at 5:33 am
approx breakdown of tds:
brate – 7
howard – 6
evans – 9
djax – 6
godwin – 5
hump – 3
others – 4
October 28th, 2018 at 6:13 am
@Joe … “With all the Tampa Bay weapons, it sure feels like Jameis should have no problem reaching at least a 2-1 TD/INT ratio in the final 10 games of this season.”
Jameis had essentially the same weapons last year Joe … he threw 19 TDs vs 11 INTs. Not a 2-1 TD/INT ratio but not that far off either. The problem is that INTs only tell PART of the turnover problem. QBs typically don’t fumble when a running play is called, so most fumbles it would seem are associated with passing plays. THAT’S where things got ugly, not with the INTs. 15 fumbles on the year to go along with 11 INTs was a 2 per game average (for Jameis’ 13 games played). Add in 33 sacks (as ‘drive killers’ let’s say) and you’re talking 4.5 plays per game that didn’t exactly help the offense ‘move forward’.
IMO it’s THAT number that becomes significant … call them ‘show stoppers’ if you want. Those 3 aspects of his game (INTs, fumbles & sacks) are what Jameis needs to keep improving on. Great weapons probably help, but a beastly OLine would help a LOT more. (Jason … FIX THE TRENCHES).
October 28th, 2018 at 6:55 am
Agree with fixing the O line and quite possibly O line coach. You would expect the left side of O line
with Smith ,Marpet ,and Jensen be opening more holes. Might be teams know
we will try to run to the left and stack the defense on that side. IMO,Licht
seems better at picking players off the trash heap or trades than free agency, so he needs to find a missing piece at RG and find Dot’s eventual replacement next
year
October 28th, 2018 at 7:13 am
Trash heap might be the wrong description ,point was that Licht has had some
success finding players like Nassib who was unwanted by the Browns.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:23 am
He’s not going to change….and he wont win. He’s had ONE 5 game fluke of a winning streak, other then that, its been awful looking. The trend for him is getting worse and worse…..He’s not even progressing in the right direction. Teams have him figured out….Stop the run, force Winston to pass, and sit back because the TOs will come. He holds the ball too long, locks in on receivers, wont let a play die, is waaay over confident in his arm with terrible ball placement..
October 28th, 2018 at 7:23 am
There is a reason why he is labeled as “The Human Turnover Machine”. He is not intelligent enough to play quarterback in the NFL.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:48 am
As far the 62 dropbacks, IMO opinion here are two reasons:
1. Lack of effective running game.
2. The Bucs gameplan has been designed to include more short and intermediate passes. IMO they are trying to get Jameis into the flow of the game earlier and
increase his confidence . I think its just as important to eliminate Jameis’s slow starts as it is to decrease his turnovers. The Team needs him to manage the game
and make this offense click. Since we struggle in the red zone, full use of the offensive weapons should be used when we get inside the 30 yard line. Tons of respect for Hump but I want the ball to in our playmakers hands. Use DJAX in open space and our taller receivers that have proven they can go up and fight for the ball.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:31 am
Trade JW for a good GM and HC. The Glazers could always Move the team to Toledo Ohio, or, Fort Wayne. Ind. Lexington KY is also looking for a sports team. Or, they could just stay here and hire a president of football operations.