Just Go For Two
October 20th, 2018
Time to throw in the towel.
It’s finally time to give up. Admit your mistake. Bow to the football gods and ask for forgiveness.
The Bucs’ kicking situation has, for the most part, stunk since the Bucs nickel-and-dimed Matt Bryant out of town.
But for a brief period when Connor Barth was consistent before he went all Michael Jordan and blew out the Achilles in his kicking leg during a charity basketball game, the Bucs kicking situation has bounced from horrible at the bottom to unreliable at the top.
Draft picks, Team Glazer loot spent on free agents, it doesn’t matter. The Bucs (and specifically Dirk Koetter) have been cursed by kickers since Bryant was cut.
(Yeah, Joe knows former Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik said recently Bryant was damaged goods when he cut him. But why cut good players — which is a hallmark of this franchise? Would the Bucs cut a good defensive end if they thought he was nicked up? Wait a minute — don’t answer that.)
Joe had thought about the Bucs saying the hell with it. Screw kicking extra points and with the weapons on offense this team has, go full-blown Mike Tomlin (who was so disgusted with his Steelers kicker once he went for two on every touchdown in a game).
The Bucs should just go for two after each touchdown after watching their kicker screw with the team (again) last Sunday at Atlanta.
In fact, jet-flyin’, kiss–stealin‘, data-analyzin’, Bucs-film-studyin’, limousine-ridin’ Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times has the same idea. Just stop the mental mind-screwing kickers have and go for two from now on.
What in the name of Donald Igwebuike is going on here? A kicker makes all 29 of his extra points in a season, then comes to Tampa Bay and misses two in five games? It’s time for a dramatic shift in strategy. It’s time to take a step that most other teams are too afraid to take. …
Since the beginning of last season, kickers have made 93.7 percent of their extra points. That’s a rate of return of 0.94 points per try. Teams have made 50.4 percent of their two-point conversions. That’s a rate of return of 1.01 points per try. In other words, going for two produces more points.
Let’s go for two. All the time.
This makes a helluva lot of sense. If a team can make just half of its two-point conversion attempts, that’s the same as making all extra points. Anything more than that, you are ahead of the game.
And at the same time, you neuter undependable kickers.
October 20th, 2018 at 12:15 am
Which means you’d most likely have to go for it on 4th down anytime you’re held up in field goal range. Let’s run the numbers on how many times Tampa converts on 4th down and there’s your earth shattering answer.
October 20th, 2018 at 12:18 am
OK. If you don’t trust him to make the conversion, what will you do when the offense stalls on the 25 yd line? Are you now recommending that the team *always* go for it on 4th down if they are in field goal range?
October 20th, 2018 at 12:29 am
There was the Barbers,now the Watts. Next year we will have The Aguayo’s. Little Ricky Aguayo. In the 2nd round of the 2019 draft The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Ricky Aguayo from Florida State University. Make the Bucs great again, go get ya another Aguayo. Hell yeah
October 20th, 2018 at 12:33 am
Ummm did you see the one 2 PT conversion we ran last Sunday? A roll-out w Jameis… creative.
Have you seen our red zone offense?
What in the world makes you think we should start going for 2?? We don’t have the plays in our playbook
October 20th, 2018 at 1:00 am
Bucs would make 50 % of the 2 point conversions but they would likely convert them in 38 dash 10 blowouts and choke when in a close game…. Kind of like certain MLB sluggers who can go yard in a 10-2 blowout but K or hit into a double play when they are down a run…… As a Buc fan since 76 I have learned to expect the worst…… Like this Sunday the Bucs will likely get schooled by Chubb and Duke Johnson but if the Bucs surprise and win it will probably be one of those wins that just costs them key draft position like when the Bucs beat Cleveland in the Chuckie era and ended up with Gaines Adams instead of Megatron or Joe Thomas…. Tough being a Buc fan right now with Licht having epic fails in drafts and a head coach who simply runs an undisciplined ship and had to be forced to fire the worst DC in recent NFL history. That being said I hope the Bucs win but I’d be a fool to bet them, especially at -3.5.
October 20th, 2018 at 1:09 am
Well………..That puts us kinda sorta in the Redzone.
Not a strength as of YET!
Hopefully this becomes an option.
October 20th, 2018 at 1:10 am
Look, the Bucs could make 50% of their 2 pointers but they would likely make them in 38-10 blowouts and miss them in the 24-23 nailbiters much like certain MLB sluggers can pad their stats and go yard in 10-2 routs but K swinging with the basesloaded in a 3-2 game….. Being a Buc fan since ’76 it is hard to believe this franchise can do anything right. Licht has had horrible drafts and Koetter seems to be running an undisciplined ship without direction and my guess is that he was basically forced to jettison his buddy Mikey. However I can see Chubb or Duke Johnson nail our Bucs D for 2 pointers if the Browns tried the same approach. I would love to see the Bucs win but if they do it will likely only move them back in the draft order and just miss out on the key impact players like when the Bucs beat the Browns in 2006 but then settled for Gaines Adams after Megatron and Joe Thomas went off the board. Its a must win game for Tampa and I want the Bucs to win but until they prove otherwise, Koetter and Company seem destined to another 10 loss season with this D…..
October 20th, 2018 at 2:38 am
Especially when your down by three scores by halftime.
October 20th, 2018 at 3:52 am
How many superstar kickers have the Bucs failed to keep since their inception as a professional football team? It is too many for me to count, anyone have the number??
This is what bottom-dweller franchises do. They can’t identify great talent frequently & they can’t keep it whenever they do. To be great, it’s not about who your QB is or even who your coach is–the guy(s) at the top have to know what they’re doing FIRST AND FOREMOST.
October 20th, 2018 at 4:25 am
This would have been a fabulous idea–if we had a team which performed with at least average results in the red zone. We don’t.
October 20th, 2018 at 4:31 am
@DalvinCookRules
Michael Husted always stuck in my craw along with Bryant.
October 20th, 2018 at 5:30 am
Lucious Selmon, SB,
The team is ranked 12th in the league for red zone efficiency.
The team is above avg in the red zone.
October 20th, 2018 at 6:13 am
Mike10 Says:
October 20th, 2018 at 12:33 am
Ummm did you see the one 2 PT conversion we ran last Sunday? A roll-out w Jameis… creative.
Have you seen our red zone offense?
What in the world makes you think we should start going for 2?? We don’t have the plays in our playbook
BINGO!!!…….EXACTLY
At least with an extra point we score a point most of the time.
October 20th, 2018 at 6:40 am
Only do it when it’s necessary. Use it to make up for a lost point or when down by three scores and time is of the essence.
October 20th, 2018 at 7:34 am
I like it. Let’s do it.
October 20th, 2018 at 7:58 am
So let’s dive into this…..
-Our GM is currently on his 4th defensive coordinator in 5 yrs….each somehow managing to be worse then the previous.
-We’ve had at least 4 kickers….one being a wasted 2nd rd pick that is out of the league.
-Our #1 pick, franchise QB just came off suspension for the same bs that clouded him in college. He’s still a turnover machine as well….no different then his college days.
-Free agency as a whole would grade a D during Licht’s 5 yrs
-In 4 seasons his record is 22-42….no playoff appearances….finished last in the division 3x.
Our problem is losing….the common denominator is our GM (owners as well)
October 20th, 2018 at 7:58 am
Joe are you running out of things to talk about? This is a rehash of an article you posted only a few days ago. You changed a few things but it’s basically the same.
October 20th, 2018 at 8:05 am
We have been cursed at the kicker position ever since we let Matt Bryant go.
October 20th, 2018 at 8:33 am
Catanzaro has been as good as you can hope for. I’m fine with going for 2 every time though
October 20th, 2018 at 8:40 am
Yea great idea until we dont convert two in a row and are suddenly down 12-21. Then we all talk about how we have the worst HC in the league yada yada yada.
October 20th, 2018 at 8:48 am
“Its amazing the millions of Glazer money that the Teflon Gump has wasted…. Gump is the gift that keeps giving to the stiffs and busts of the NFL”
“My kids call Jason Licht, Santa Gringo Gump”
Aguayo
October 20th, 2018 at 8:57 am
The WFL rules eliminated PAT’s. A TD was worth seven pts. and the “action point” from the 2 1/2 yd. line was worth one.
This made games really interesting.
October 20th, 2018 at 9:00 am
Utterly amazing how inconsistent the kicking situation has been – the GM is fading after a fast start- just cannot miss on 3 second rd picks in a row- they should be 3 impact players right now, yet we had to sign multiple FA at 2 of the 3 spot to makeup for his poor selections of The kicker and the undersized DE
Jones looks like he is lost a bit still – you can see his speed but can he man up and be a bell-cow type back?? Not seeing it yet
October 20th, 2018 at 9:15 am
Guys, do some research. 4th and 5 or shorter anywhere past your own 40 is go for it territory according to data.
October 20th, 2018 at 9:36 am
FortMyersDave Says: “Look, the Bucs could make 50% of their 2 pointers but they would likely make them in 38-10 blowouts and miss them in the 24-23 nailbiters ”
————–
Now this is a guy who is definitely a true Bucs fan and has bled with this football team for many years. We feel your pain, Dave!!!! — Hopefully it will ALL change SOON!
October 20th, 2018 at 9:41 am
Defenses have to respect the running game for that approach to be successful.
October 20th, 2018 at 10:58 am
And its not just limited to kickers, you could literally point to any position on this team where we either misevaluated a FA or Draft pick or let a good player go to another team.
We change coaches so often we are constantly rebuilding the team for a new scheme instead of finding an identity and finding the staff to carry it out on the field (see: Jaguars, Jacksonville)
To me this is on the owners – like many have said – if we dont get a professional football guy to run this program we will keep doing the same stupid $hit – letting good players go, keeping average players, firing coaches, changing schemes and losing football games.
This team needs an identity, and some leadership.
October 20th, 2018 at 11:24 am
Extra points should just be eliminated from the game. No team should ever lose a team game because of a missed extra point.
October 20th, 2018 at 12:23 pm
Horrible Idea.
The solution is simple…bring back Patrick Murray. Chandler Catanzaro is no better than he was, and Patrick Murray did not have us biting nails at least.
October 20th, 2018 at 12:27 pm
Wesley Says
“Extra points should just be eliminated from the game. No team should ever lose a team game because of a missed extra point.”
I disagree. The XPs are part of the game for a reason. They add drama to the end of games, and that drama helped make the NFL so popular.
October 20th, 2018 at 1:55 pm
I have said this since Aguayo. our punter SUCKS as a holder. Either he is giving too much downward pressure, or is slow to get the ball set, or is crowding the approach lane, either way HE is the common denominator.
He gave the kicker in Jacksonville trouble too. Their coach at the time even talked about it. I have posted that article on this site before
October 20th, 2018 at 2:05 pm
If we had a defense missing an extra point would not be earth shattering. The bucs have a better chance of kicking than going for 2, they call the worst plays when they go for 2. Most teams can overcome a missed extra point,but not the BUCS. FIRE THE CANNONS ONLY IF WE CONVERT AN EXTRA POINT.
October 20th, 2018 at 2:10 pm
Talib
Blount
Bennett
Bryant
Barron
all not good enough for us, yet massively successful with their next teams…
(ok Barron is a bit of a stretch, but they have used him pretty successfully on the Rams)
October 20th, 2018 at 2:38 pm
Why in the world is it so hard to find a kicker!!? One that can make 6 out of 10. Not great but fair. Bucs players need to get their heads in the game and stop playing like butt cheecks!!!
October 20th, 2018 at 3:08 pm
sounds crazy, but if they need a kicker once again next year, maybe bring back aguayo and see if he settles in as initially thought…just something to mull over…
he was supposed to have a superior leg, but became a head case…age might fix the f*cker…
if it doesn’t work out drop him off in the publix parking lot and be on your way
October 20th, 2018 at 4:31 pm
With the receivers we have, we can’t score in the red zone. Why would anybody think we could get two on an extra
point?
October 20th, 2018 at 11:51 pm
Duh. I’ve been saying this for years now. Since the NFL moved the XP back. Go for 2. Kickers are the worst. There’s 5 or 6 good ones in the league. The rest are held cases.
Why put the fate of a football game in the hands of a tiny soccer player?
October 21st, 2018 at 12:38 am
Dirk punts from the opponents 36 in a shootout, he punts on 4th a 2 from the opponents 37, you think for a moment he has the balls to do anything this unconventional? Meanwhile the Eagles are going for it on 4th and short from their side of the field and win a SB.
October 21st, 2018 at 7:48 am
And I thought joe didn’t like the stat geeks.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:38 am
Joe just likes clicks! This site isn’t consistent and Joe just types what makes people click on sites. I mean look back a year ago when Joe LOVED him some Mike Smith. Then he is the first to call for his head. Don’t ever forget about his love affair with JOHNNY MANZIEL. And now he thinks it makes since to go for two point conversions??? WOW!! Hey but he gets the clicks don’t he, laughing all the way to the bank.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:49 am
Remove the goal posts! Then you would have more football being played by football players! Imagine the implications!