NFL.com: Nightmare For Bucs
September 7th, 2018
NFL Network spreadsheeter.
Cynthia Frelund is a numbers chick. And she cannot find a way for the Bucs to have a winning season this fall.
The numberscruncher for NFL.com and NFL Network — she sure doesn’t look like a spreadsheeter — has run every program she can think of backwards and forwards and she simply cannot come up with a numerical measurement where the Bucs have a winning season.
In fact, Frelund’s numbers suggest the Bucs could be in contention to have the first overall draft pick in 2019.
The Buccaneers have three extremely tough matchups to start the season during Jameis Winston’s suspension: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Steelers. One of the biggest red flags is the run game, as Tampa Bay ranked 27th last season. An inconsistent ground attack combined with Winston’s style of play signals turnovers — Tampa was tied for the sixth-most last season with 27. One positive note: The addition of Jason Pierre-Paul, among many other defenders, should help the Bucs get out of the sack cellar (SEE: a league-low 22 in 2017).
It is pretty clear to Joe that she nor her data know anything about Peyton Barber. Now clearly Barber may not be Gale Sayers but he sure as hell isn’t Doug Martin. That alone Joe hopes is worth two wins.
But, yeah, the suspension to America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is damning. Joe just hopes Ryan Fitzpatrick can steal a win somehow, some way.
So if Frelund is correct, Joe is going to have a whole lot to write about in January with all the changes to the team. Both on and off the field.
September 7th, 2018 at 12:07 am
Does anyone have the power ball numbers since everyone can see so far into the future?
Let the damn team play for crying out loud! First overall draft pick? Have you all seen the Bills? I don’t care how tough the first three games are there are upsets every single Sunday and last I checked there are still another 13 games in the season.
September 7th, 2018 at 12:10 am
She is accurate
4-12
NO = 52
Bucs = 12
September 7th, 2018 at 12:14 am
Doug Martin was the only all-pro RB in the history of the team, so no, Barber isn’t Doug Martin.
September 7th, 2018 at 12:15 am
Here we go… Matt Ryan… game on the line… former league MVP… this is why Matty Ice gets paid the big bucks!
September 7th, 2018 at 12:24 am
Matty Ice.
Chokes again.
LOL!
September 7th, 2018 at 12:29 am
More like: Thursday Night Football Nightmare for the Failcons, Joe!
September 7th, 2018 at 12:30 am
Atlanta’s now 0-1.
What’s the numbers for their fall? Just kidding I don’t give a….
Bring on the Aint’s. This is 2018 baby!!!
Go Fitzmagic!!
Go Bucs!!!
September 7th, 2018 at 12:31 am
Philly wasn’t all that but I’m glad they won because now they’ll come into the Den looking past the Bucs. If they had lost they’d be even more focused for a win. Plus, Atlanta is 0-1
September 7th, 2018 at 12:32 am
Philly 13 QB hits on Matty Ice. I feel for Fitz next week.
September 7th, 2018 at 12:35 am
Nice start for the dirty birds!!! Just what we’re looking for 👍🏻👌🏻👊🏻!!
Damnnnn, That Eagles defensive line was punishing Matty Ice towards the end. Would love to see our d-line show that kinda pash rush pressure…Iggles D looks solid…
September 7th, 2018 at 12:35 am
We will start 2 and 1. The Run game will be strong in a defense will shock some people. then Jameis Winston comes back and we’ll will be the talk of the NFL after a 5-0 run!
September 7th, 2018 at 12:38 am
It takes Matt Ryan 2 trips to haul @ss, but at least Fitz has some wheels
September 7th, 2018 at 12:40 am
The flaws with all these so called experts is they are trying to extrapolate the past onto the future. It seldom works. Every team is quite different now, what the Bucs running game was last year is irrelevant, both from new starting RBs, new OL, and more weapons in the receiving corp.
Anyone watch Philly Atlanta tonight? Both teams looked very beatable. I wish the Bucs could have played them both tonight.
September 7th, 2018 at 12:43 am
The playcalling decides the fate of the Bucs running game. The playcalling has to be more creative and less predictable.
September 7th, 2018 at 12:46 am
Well said about All Pro Doug Martin Munch
September 7th, 2018 at 12:48 am
On second thought even…..yikes I don’t care.
Bring on the Eaglets @ Ray Jay!
We’ve got weeeeeeeeeapons Joes!
The Bucs still have weapons….only it takes Fitzy’s throws about 2 minutes to reach the intended target, but they still have weapons.
STEAL this win @ New Orleans and the waters are calm for a week…1-0 out of the gate against a division foe. WOW!!
I of course expect nothing at this point. I’m a fan win or lose.
Tmax………………. would say expect them to win and except nothing else. I suppose it depends on how much you think “excepting” nothing but perfection from your team is going to give you as a fan. I’ve thought about this buddy. It comes back to the same thing I keep saying. WE can’t impose our will on this team and their decisions from top to bottom. All we can do is yell, cheer, piss, and moan. You DO you. Reality or not….
Bonzai..I love your optimism. I really do. Is it the medical grade stuff?lol j/k
10 and 6 you say? Okay…I’ll let you know after this Sunday.
Go Bucs!!!
September 7th, 2018 at 12:49 am
Joe with the Falcons loss can we expect the bucs are in a 3 way tie for first post soon
September 7th, 2018 at 1:01 am
All we can do is yell, cheer, piss, and moan.
Amen brother
September 7th, 2018 at 1:27 am
When I saw her predictions on NFL.com, it really ticked me off.
Did she see the Eagles coming last year when they were last in the division the year before?
The Bucs suffer from bottom dweller syndrome. Just like the Browns. You live there long enough, nobody takes you seriously until you take yourself seriously enough to change how others see you by your actions.
This year, Jason Licht saw that we were perceived as weak last year. That’s why we got a few new players that have a nasty streak to them. That is also why Dirk put an emphasis on toughness in training camp.
Changing the perceptions of the outside world is done from inside, but you also don’t want to broadcast it to the world until after you have kicked some a$$ on Sunday. Once we start showing up in games, then we’ll start getting some respect.
#TheWinningStartsNow
September 7th, 2018 at 1:48 am
She can take her numbers/prediction and shove it where the sun don’t shine. These so called experts with their predictions are mostly idiots.
September 7th, 2018 at 2:20 am
Reality is a bioatch I’d put money ur wrong on the point spread no way no wins 52-12 SMMFH
September 7th, 2018 at 3:05 am
Good thing the eagles had nick foles and his 117 passing yards and his int to lead his team to victory because the win had nothing to do with the defense holding the falcons to 12 pts. It was all because foles had 117 yards and 1 int. He knows how to win. Jameis throwing for 300+ yards and 3 tds and the bucs losing in the 4th qtr with less than 3 minutes to go due to defense sucking and giving up 28+ pts and being 32nd in total defense equates to jameis not knowing how to win. Smmfh.
September 7th, 2018 at 3:48 am
Is it just me or did philly look very beatable? I think if we run some screens early we can keep the dline in check and possibly get desean or godwin on a deep ball. Work some two tight end sets and run a little. I think we have a shot against them.
September 7th, 2018 at 4:39 am
@John … “Is it just me or did philly look very beatable?” When I looked at the final game stats, it sure does look like we’ve got a decent chance to beat both Philly AND Atlanta.
Foles was just 19-of-34 for 117 yards and an interception. But he kept taking what the defense gave him, and that was enough to win. Ryan won the statistical battle, throwing for 251 yards (on 21-of-43 passing), BUT … Matty Ice was 1-of-9 with an interception in the Red Zone. Not being able to finish drives & punch it in sounds eerily familiar, for both the Falcons AND us.
One thing that stood out to me though is that both defenses looked reasonably stout against the run especially for the 1st game of the season, as did both OLines. Bucs DLine will have its’ job cut out for it this year. Really hoping that Vea gets back quickly so to help with the DT rotation. Also hoping that Gholston & at least one other start balling out to help JPP & Curry on the ends.
September 7th, 2018 at 5:11 am
Don’t forget guys . Those are 2 of the top defenses that played last night. Both will be top 5. Nervous about our line hanging with those 2 teams and out qb surviving.
As far as Cynthia frelund goes …I hope she was drinking that night when she completed that spreadsheet . Let me tell you something , she knows her stuff. She could be a professional gambler and make a good living betting on sports.
I think it was 2 years ago when she worked for espn and she only missed 1 game on entire 1st round of march madness or something crazy like that. She picked these matchups I was laughing at first but gave info on it beforehand on why..She has computers that help run scenarios but she knows numbers/ statistics …So again just hoping she was having a bad day
September 7th, 2018 at 5:51 am
Most of you just don’t wanna face reality.
Although the team is improved they’re not ready to contend.
8-8 would be a miracle.
6-10 is more realistic
September 7th, 2018 at 5:51 am
Philly’s defense is still a force,there didn’t seem to be the drop off from the loss of players. We may need to take a page from 2015 and use an extra blocker to get the run game going against them.
September 7th, 2018 at 6:06 am
Does anyone think the Bucs can pull a Rays win streak? Nah, didn’t think so…
September 7th, 2018 at 6:35 am
Imagine a win this Sunday…first place. Then a win over Philly. 2-0 NFC, 1-0 Division, and you aould have a common game tiebreak over the Falcons.
September 7th, 2018 at 6:42 am
See articles like this just confirm what I already believe and that is that these people know nothing about us. They think the fact that we no longer have Doug Martin is a bad thing when in reality it is one of the best things that happened to us. It is laughable to read these completely ridiculous opinions based on complete garbage information. She ran all the numbers she could? How about the numbers that over the last 5 games last year, you know when Barber started, Barber was the 5th leading rusher in the NFL! These people are clueless people, don’t bye into the negativity.
September 7th, 2018 at 6:47 am
Defenses win games. All this talk about our offense meanwhile Phillys offense sputtered scored a couple times against ATL but held.them to 12 overall pints.
C’mon even Mike Smith blow yards know the falcons would have put up 30 points against us.
Our defense will cost us this coaching staff..
hopefully only Smitty though. Can they please just fire him.now while there is still hope???
September 7th, 2018 at 6:54 am
WEBSTER EXACTLY….BUT D ONT WORRY THE “REAL FANS” WILL TELL US THAT’S NOT SO….ITS ALL.ON PLAYCALLING AND DMITRY SHOULD.BE PROMOTED TO HEAD COACH!!!!!!!
FIRE MIKE SMITH WHILE WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE. LEAGUE HIGH VOMPLETION PERCENTAGES ALLOWED SOON TO COME TO A STADIUM NEAR YOU!!
September 7th, 2018 at 6:55 am
Sweeptheleg Says:
September 7th, 2018 at 5:51 am
Most of you just don’t wanna face reality.
Although the team is improved they’re not ready to contend.
8-8 would be a miracle.
6-10 is more realistic
Think what you will but we have upgraded at so many spots it’s ridiculous. Last year we had a defensive line that is now not employed ANYWHERE! This year we have 3 guys who have won a super bowl. No we are the best in the league BUT we are much much better. Our runningback was all time bad and Barber, again while not wonderful, cannot be worse and looks to be much better. We had a first year center and a backup level LG last year. Now we have a established center and a pro bowl caliber LG. And with all that this team could have won 10 games a year ago with a average Kicker and any defense. So again believe what you want but if don’t think this team can compete then you are just hoping we suck. That is not even mentioning we played Javon Elliot and Ryan Smith a ton last year and now they are being replaced by two young 2nd round picks. Again are they perfect being so young no BUT just on talent alone we are better. Every weakness has been strengthen so we are flat out going to be better no what how many times the media tells us we will suck.
September 7th, 2018 at 7:02 am
@ndog
Ok man pump yourself up and after a beating this Sunday against a super bowl contender you’ll come down off that cloud.
I’ve been watching since 1987 I want them to win just as much as the next person but I’m not sticking my head in the sand.
Other teams got better too. You all act like the Bucs are the only team that improved.
September 7th, 2018 at 7:23 am
She is usually spot on.
September 7th, 2018 at 7:46 am
Word is that she is biased against the Bucs also her freaking game data said we would lose to the saints last year and we did not also her prediction last year is that the jags would have a bad season she was wrong so guys relax and just cheer for the Bucs
September 7th, 2018 at 7:48 am
TGIF snowflakes
September 7th, 2018 at 8:00 am
AQPBJW is still laughable, and gets zero traction anywhere in the football world but………….here.
September 7th, 2018 at 8:11 am
She serves her purpose: T & A eyeball candy. Where’s Bonzai? There are certain educated fans on here I follow cos I learn off them. BTW, I picked the Dirty Birds cos a Philly fan told me to do so. If DK will let Monk take the load off him Sunday, we have a shot. Bucs are definitely under the radar. I approve it, too. GO BUCS SUNDAY!!
September 7th, 2018 at 8:20 am
To shore up the running game, the Bucs should trade for Leveon Bell.
September 7th, 2018 at 8:43 am
Man Philly’s passing game was atrocious, they really were able to ball the last few minutes of the game. They were able to the ball well at the end and broke off some explosive runs to wear down the Falcons.
Then the Philly D stepped up keeping Ryan out of the end zone. Don’t think many teams would play one-on-one defense vs Julio Jones inside the red zone but Philly pulled it off, exceptional defensive play, pushing Jones out of the end zone, not allowing him to get his feet in. I pretty sure there isn’t a Bucs defender that has that kind of ball awareness to make that play.
Certainly the Bucs offense would put up more points than Atlanta did. Falcons with the exception of Jones look like an offense that doesn’t have the big plays in them unless of course Mike Smith lets Jones go one-on-one with his mediocre defensive backs.
New Orleans is a far more dangerous offense than Philly or Atlanta for now.
September 7th, 2018 at 9:03 am
Thank you Chris in WA
September 7th, 2018 at 9:04 am
well, I think matty ice played well but it was JJ who shat the bed….he bobbled a deep pass that was called incomplete and didn’t get proper depth on his route on ryans INT…..
both defenses were pretty good…..
the biggest thing folks forget is that now philly has 10days to prepare for us…..NOT GOOD!!!!!!
not sure about sunday….I think we have a chance but its the coaching that worries me…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
September 7th, 2018 at 9:19 am
Genius simply brilliant yeah let’s keep on predicting the 1st overall pick for the bucs based on last year’s stats and first 3 games of a new season. It sounds completely ignorant but apparently people take it seriously
September 7th, 2018 at 9:27 am
Do you know what Cynthia’s stat sheet doesn’t tell you? There’s a degree of luck in this game. Also, that data doesn’t account for injuries, suspensions, coaching, divorce, child-rearing, and a whole host of other factors that might come into play individually.
Look at last night. Two “powerhouse” teams that looked VERY beatable. YET, the “woe is me” Buc fans have already started preparing for the 1st round pick Cynthia speaks of! Sad, just sad. Truly, if you believe that this team will be a front-runner to suck-ville once again, why bother to watch the games?!
Dear Cynthia: ANYTHING can happen on Sunday!
Go Bucs!
September 7th, 2018 at 9:28 am
I choose to block out 2017. It seemed whatever could go wrong did go wrong. So that being said I look at 2016 and see a 9-7 team. This 2018 team looks better than that team so why not 10-6. I wonder what record Ms Frelund had for Tampa last season? BTW 538 has Tampa at 6.8 wins. Go Bucs!
#Get After It!
September 7th, 2018 at 9:35 am
Barber is worth two wins and improved DL is worth two wins. 9 and 7 baby!
[OK, no need to pimp this fantasy league in every comment. — Joe]
September 7th, 2018 at 9:40 am
I guess Joe doesn’t want us to have a JBF Pickem league.
September 7th, 2018 at 9:50 am
She certainly LOOKS spreadsheetable…
But I wouldn’t put much stock in the fake blonde’s football prognostication relating to this year’s Buccaneers.
September 7th, 2018 at 9:55 am
Fortunately the Bucs aren’t playing fantasy football so the stats are largely meaningless, especially basing anything on last year’s stats which is the only thing the spreadsheet crowd can do since there are no stats for 2018 yet.
September 7th, 2018 at 9:59 am
The way would be to win 9 games
September 7th, 2018 at 10:06 am
Pickgrin- LMAO! And totally agree!
September 7th, 2018 at 10:41 am
All the prognostications are based on the Bucs 2017 performance. Is no one paying attention to this year’s training camp and offseason acquisitions? Sure, they mention JPP, but the Bucs made many more additions to the DL. I know there are injuries, but most (except Unrein) appear to be short term. And, as Joe points out, Peyton Barber is not Doug Martin. Plus we have a new man at center to help the run game. Nevertheless, I’m glad everyone is writing off the Bucs in 2018. It’s not bad to fly under, way under, the radar.
September 7th, 2018 at 12:17 pm
Call me an optimist but so far the season has panned out in the Bucs favor.
Saints haven’t won a season opener since 2013.
Saints have started out 0-2 every since something like 2014.
Eagles won their first game, they didn’t look Super. They are bound to have residual first game/Super Bowl hangover.
Foles played well enough to win, barely. If we get Wentz, he will be super rusty and if they stick with Foles, he’s still struggling.
The Steelers are missing one of their best players in Bell. Maybe he comes in and takes a while to get the rust off… maybe he doesn’t and makes the Steelers one dimensional.
Any/all of these first three games are winnable.
The only thing I don’t like is the Eagles getting 10 days off between games.
September 7th, 2018 at 1:38 pm
We start this season 2-0 boys. Just a gut feeling. Sometimes is the best guess when it comes to predictions. Saints started horribly week 1 last year. i expect them to do great things but we come out with the win sunday !
September 7th, 2018 at 1:44 pm
Reality- is- a- bigger-blowout… at this rate by tomorrow it will be Saints 62 Bucs 12. By gameday it will be Saints 72 Bucs 12. Too bad the game is not three days off so the Bucs opponent can break the high points record.
September 7th, 2018 at 1:58 pm
It really stinks that the Bucs early 2nd round RB is clearly not ready to be on the field, let alone starting. Would have been nice to have a good 1 2 punch on the ground this year. He simply looks to small and slight out there to be effective at this level.
September 7th, 2018 at 4:02 pm
So many pessimist just got be fans of some other team damn lol
September 7th, 2018 at 6:54 pm
What did she predict last season?