Playoffs “Realistic”
June 1st, 2018
Not far.
It seems one NFL scribe woke up on the sunny side of the bedroom.
A lot of folks are down on the Bucs. Understandable. Virtually every Bucs fans from Clearwater to Vero Beach, and from Key West to the North Pole, figured the Bucs were going to make a run at the playoffs last year.
Instead, they ate puppy gruel with one of the key members of the defense turning out to be a slob of a dendrophiliac.
But Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports honestly doesn’t think the Bucs are far off from being a contender. Wilson believes if the Bucs can sort of play to the level of 2016, then the team will be involved in meaningful games in December.
Ultimately, any success the Bucs have will come down to quarterback Jameis Winston. In 2017, he set career highs in completion (63.8), yards per attempt (7.9) and passer rating (92.2), and ranked 11th in total value among all quarterbacks, just behind Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith. But Tampa’s 11th-rated offense couldn’t overcome the league’s worst defense, hence the 5-11 record. But with Winston, an upgraded running game, and downfield playmakers DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, Adam Humphries, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, the Bucs could be one of the biggest surprises of the 2018 season. Remember: The team finished 9-7 in 2016 with the 19th-rated offense and the 13th-rated defense. If the Bucs’ offense replicates last year’s success (and there’s no reason to think they won’t improve on it), and the defense can just be a replacement-level unit, the playoffs are a realistic possibility.
Well, Bucs coach Dirk Koetter will have you know that with just a handful of plays made in the red zone, several losses would have turned to Bucs wins.
Joe does know the gutless defense last year, worst in the NFL, puked away four leads in the fourth quarter. Can’t blame that on Jameis’ fumbles.
And with a halfway decent kicker, they beat the Belicheats in a Thursday Night Football game.
Wilson is not far off in his assessment. After all, the defense can’t get any worse.
Can it?
June 1st, 2018 at 10:24 am
Duh captain obvious. All these people in Tampa afraid to talk about playoffs this year because of what happened last year….your like the guys fumbling through new relationship because your old girlfriend cheated on you. Yea sure why would they make the playoffs this year because it didn’t happen last year yea really good sound logic there. In Tampa we won’t have expectations so let’s act like we have the same roster as last year or better yet why not treat it like lovie Smith is still the coach and were getting Tennessee ready all over again because God forbid upgrading the roster give anyone hope that our team can makethe playoffs
June 1st, 2018 at 10:31 am
Anyone is delusional if they think this team can make the playoffs as the 4th best team in the division with the 4th best quarterback in the division. This guy needs a dose of reality of he thinks Bucs are playoff ready.
June 1st, 2018 at 10:35 am
Injuries always happen every year. So there’s a chance of anything to happen, but just like last year when everyone was talking playoffs, let’s tap the brakes a bit. Let’s see how they look after pre-season and game 1 before we get ahead of ourselves and talk playoffs. I’m excited about this year’s team, more excited than last year when I thought they were still too young and inexperienced. I hope the humility of last year sets in, they don’t read their own bulletin-board material hyping them up and play consistent strong football. Play your game and the successes will follow.
June 1st, 2018 at 10:35 am
Definitely possible with Winston taking the next step
June 1st, 2018 at 10:42 am
Had to go to the Doc this morning to get the old knees shot up. Like many Doc offices plenty of mags to read but most of them very dated.
No sweat I grabbed last year’s SI NFL edition to read their 2017 predictions. Eagles picked to go 8-8 after 2 consecutive 7-9 years…the Bucs picked 10-6 after their 9-7 ’16 surprise.
Bottom line is..predictions this time of the year are pretty much worthless in the NFL. There are some usual suspects…Patriots…Pack…Steelers…otherwise SI was all over the board last year with their predictions and accuracy of predictions is clearly not a strength for NFL pundits.
They may be as accurate as the NFL draft with about a 50% success rate.
BTW..SI last year picked the Saints to finish 4th with another losing record…not exactly spot on eh?
June 1st, 2018 at 10:46 am
BTW if any of you guys are having knee problems from simple age and wear and tear…not talking about actual ligament damage or structural damage but rather the loss of cartilage that comes from aging and exercising.
At 70 my knees feel like they are 30 after a series of 3 injections of Suparc. It’s stuff made from Rooster combs that simulates your natural cartilage. IF you have enough existing cartilage for the new stuff to combine with it can be VERY effective. If you just have discomfort and generally sore knees might want to check with your Doc.
June 1st, 2018 at 10:52 am
IMO, improved d-line play will be paramount to the defensive performance and ability to get off of the field. The other variable to a Bucs turn around will be Jameis not turning the ball over. I am a bit concerned already with the number of turnovers in OTA’s. Koetter has preached that he must take what the defense gives you and not force the ball. I truly hope that Jameis takes the next step this year. Go BUCS!
June 1st, 2018 at 10:53 am
With the litany of weapons listed for Jameis….I love the way Chris Godwin keeps getting left out….it’s as if he isn’t on the team….I love it because I hope the opposition forgets he is there also. He will definitely show up and will be a force.
June 1st, 2018 at 10:58 am
Great points. Its’s the NFL where parity is a plenty. The defense will be substantially improved in one key area, the ability to stop the run, and Ronald Jones will be a difference maker on offense. If JW just reduces the fumbles, and he will with competent center, this retooled Bucs team will make some noise. Need the win in NO to start the season to get this train rolling.
June 1st, 2018 at 11:03 am
I had the same thought Tbbf. Everyone seems to be sleeping on Godwin when listing Winston’s “weapons”. Hope opposing DBs do the same this year…
June 1st, 2018 at 11:05 am
Finally someone gets it unlike the vast majority of posters to this here website!!!
June 1st, 2018 at 11:06 am
Let’s wait till preseason and see if they can score more than 6 points or stop anyone. Then say preseason means nothing again.
I was watching Total Access talking about the Cow Girls and the playoffs. The first win outside their division for the win to get them in? Easy answer. The Bucs. The rest of the teams in our division there were serious questions. That is the way it always is with this team.
June 1st, 2018 at 11:19 am
Tampa is hungry for a playoff team, just look at the Lightning, and their success.
I think we have more than enough talent to reach the playoffs this year, and if we don’t, we may want to completely re think our coaching situation.
But we can’t be blind, and not realize that other teams have got better too.
The NFL Schedule makers did not do us any favors this year, so if we are going to make the playoffs, we are really gonna have to earn it.
June 1st, 2018 at 11:29 am
@Wilson … “But Tampa’s 11th-rated offense couldn’t overcome the league’s worst defense.” Wow, I love how totally consistent (and predictable) you are Joe. Find a guy very few have ever heard of who reinforces the message: Bucs’ offense played great last year; Bucs’ defense sucked.
The 11th ranked offense? In passing yards/game we were #4, but in rushing yards/game we were #27. In POINTS SCORED/GAME we were #18 (the only meaningful stat IMO). In turnovers given up we were #6. In TOP we were #21. But in 1st downs made we were #2. Point being that being #11 based on total yardage doesn’t mean diddly if you go 5-11. (And BTW, we were actually #9 in total yardage, not #11).
The 32nd ranked defense? In terms of yardage allowed/game they were terrible (yup, #32), both in total yardage allowed AND passing yardage allowed. A little better in rushing yardage allowed (#23) but not much. But look BEYOND THE YARDAGE STATS and you can see a LOT to build on this year. Bucs defense was #22 in POINTS ALLOWED (the only meaningful stat IMO). Rushing TDs allowed stunk (#30), but passing TDs allowed was quite decent (#12). In INTs we ranked #15, and in Forced Fumbles we ranked #2 in the NFL (and also #2 in fumbles recovered). And oh ya, that ‘gutless defense’ also scored FOUR TDs off of INTs & fumbles recovered … TDs that the Bucs’ offense stats got credit for. Take those 28 pts away and the Bucs offense scored 307 pts in 2017 … which would’ve put them at #22 in the NFL (same as our ‘gutless defense’).
June 1st, 2018 at 11:29 am
“But Tampa’s 11th-rated offense couldn’t overcome the league’s worst defense…”
…which means it all comes down to defense, not Winston. Even injured, Winston had us at the 11th ranked offense…think about that.
Last year he led us from behind 4 times, only to have the ‘leagues worse defense’ blow the lead at the end of the game. Had the defense been better and kept that lead, we would have gone at least 9-7.
Pretty amazing considering his injury.
If he is healthy, the league better look out.
Assuming he gets no more than 4 games suspended (he should not be suspended at all, but given today’s politically correct environment and Goodell’s history of bending for it, Winston will most certainly be suspended).
June 1st, 2018 at 11:34 am
Actually, Wilson is wrong in his ranking.
The Bucs were 9th in Total Offense in 2017.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1
June 1st, 2018 at 11:40 am
@DR
Those are a good layout of the stats. Paints a picture of a team that pretty much completely had to rely on the pass to move the ball down the field; which we actually did well given the weapons/QB; but this also leads to less TOP.
And when you get into the red zone; and have absolutely no run threat; the level of difficulty in executing the offense goes up because you’re so 1 dimensional. Defensive coordinators know that the pass is coming and that they can play more aggressive coverage combined with aggressive pass rush because the field is so short. That’s where we saw a few sacks / sack fumbles. Should have countered with more quick option passes/ roll outs for WInston / pitch to a RB misdirection /etc type plays imo
Excited to see the 2018 run game and 2018 defense and how that impacts everything else
June 1st, 2018 at 11:46 am
11th ranked VALUED Qb ….. How about that?
June 1st, 2018 at 12:16 pm
When they got into the red zone last year far too often they ran on first down, either had no gain and lost yardage, and set up long yardages on second and third.
Seems like every time Jameis was in a great rhythm and picking up yardage they went all conservative when it came time to score.
Needs fixin IMO.
June 1st, 2018 at 12:24 pm
Tends to happen when even drunkards can see you don’t have a running game but guys being paid seven-figures standing on the sidelines can’t.
June 1st, 2018 at 12:25 pm
6-10
June 1st, 2018 at 12:25 pm
I really hope the running game is fixed this year.
June 1st, 2018 at 12:48 pm
“Seems like every time Jameis was in a great rhythm and picking up yardage they went all conservative when it came time to score.”
100%!!!
And not just the red zone but this happened as soon as we got into opponent territory anywhere close to FG range.
Why keep passing successfully when you can lose yards and miss a 48 yard FG?
#stoptheTurtleKoetter
June 1st, 2018 at 12:56 pm
Once again, ranking offenses and defense by yards is dumb and short sighted.
All that matters are points!
We need to score more and give up less. Simple as that. Stats are for losers.
(Now I just need a Schiano quote)
June 1st, 2018 at 1:38 pm
@Defense Rules, I like how you take away our defensive TDs and then rank us against everybody else without Taking their defensive TDs away. And you talk about Joe.
June 1st, 2018 at 1:38 pm
Which games did Jameis give the Bucs a fourth quarter lead? Lets not get tunnel
vision. We need to stop pointing fingers about last year. Fix what’s broke.IMO
licht has attempted to do that on defense. On offense there should also be no excuses ,we need better play from Jameis early in both first half of the season and building leads in the first half of games. Peyton manning is the only modern QB to average two fourth quarter comebacks a year. So expecting Jameis to get four in a season.isn’t realistic IMO. So if gets 9 or ten wins with fast starts and two comebacks that is indeed possible. Love to see Jameis put it all together
and bring this team back to a quality product that everybody enjoys watching.
June 1st, 2018 at 1:58 pm
What’s the point of picking on the defense. Was anyone else watching those guys get hurt and miss the whole season or play hobbled? We had missing or 1/2 strength starters the whole season on defense. The whole season was a flop from week 2.
GO BUCS!!!
June 1st, 2018 at 2:25 pm
Its not NeuroSurgery people.. IF..Jameis has improved, we get a running game and our Defense moves up a notch or 2, We Win games. If not? Koetter and Smitty..go into Fishing Retirement. Its really kinda simple.
June 1st, 2018 at 2:49 pm
@PTwalk
Main thing DR ignores in his stats:
Bucs defense:
30th in points per drive given up
31st in yards per drive givne up
Bucs offense:
16th in points per drive
7th in yards per drive
Not sure how you can spin that beyond what it is.
If you want to get into turnover debates the offense had 5 more than the league average; but punted 10 times less than the league average; so they actually helped the defense on average in terms of possessions faced by things they could control.
The defense sucked a4ss and couldn’t stop anyone. Probably the worst pass rush in the league last year.
Offense also was a disappointment in terms of scoring. But in terms of the unit that really destroyed the season it was the defense. Quite literally in 4 games where protecting the lead on one series wins the game.
Also – giving up so many yards per drive on average + lack of run game= primary reason why our time of possession was always bad. It’s not because drives were stalling out considering we were a top 10 team at moving the ball.
June 1st, 2018 at 2:49 pm
@PTwalk
Main thing DR ignores in his stats:
Bucs defense:
30th in points per drive given up
31st in yards per drive givne up
Bucs offense:
16th in points per drive
7th in yards per drive
Not sure how you can spin that beyond what it is.
If you want to get into turnover debates the offense had 5 more than the league average; but punted 10 times less than the league average; so they actually helped the defense on average in terms of possessions faced by things they could control.
The defense sucked a4ss and couldn’t stop anyone. Probably the worst pass rush in the league last year.
Offense also was a disappointment in terms of scoring. But in terms of the unit that really destroyed the season it was the defense. Quite literally in 4 games where protecting the lead on one series wins the game.
Also – giving up so many yards per drive on average + lack of run game= primary reason why our time of possession was always bad. It’s not because drives were stalling out considering we were a top 10 team at moving the ball.
June 1st, 2018 at 3:17 pm
All the Bucs have to do is convince me in the PRESEASON that this is not going to be yet another Year of the CRAPSHOW!
June 1st, 2018 at 3:31 pm
In looking at the Bucs’ defense, the takeaway from what I commented earlier should’ve been … “But look BEYOND THE YARDAGE STATS and you can see a LOT to build on this year.” But instead, folks continue to browbeat them.
It gets tiring hearing Joe & so many others blasting the Bucs’ defense (and the Bucs’ defensive coaches) when in fact they had to overcome some major talent deficiencies in the DLine & Secondary position groups these last several years while the offense got the lion’s share of the upgrades. Without a pass rush, any NFL defense will struggle in one way or another. Combine that with a below-average Secondary and it’s a prescription for disaster.
And yet, even then there were several bright spots last year on defense that Bucs’ coaches can build on this year. Our LBs are a pretty solid group (not outstanding IMO, but solid). GMC is a good DLineman to build around, and if Spence & Gholston rebound this year that can only help us. Evans impressed me at Safety, and Grimes was solid when healthy. Ryan Smith & VHIII came on fairly strong at the end of the year, and I’m convinced they’ll improve significantly this year, so our Secondary overall should perform better (especially with a better pass rush). Add in all the ‘newbies’ and Bucs have a LOT to build on. How fast it can all come together is still an open question in my mind, but I’m convinced that our defensive coaches are up to the task.
June 1st, 2018 at 3:52 pm
Not there yet Says:
or better yet why not treat it like lovie Smith is still the coach and were getting Tennessee ready all over again
—————————————————————————————
I was at that game. It is still so vivid in my mind. Not from the dominant beatdown the Titans gave us. Not from the fact I wasted a perfectly good Sunday Afternoon. Not from the two Titans fans next to us who took pity on us and even attempted to console us. No it was because I had bought into the hype…hook, line and sinker. I believed in Lovie and that Bucs team. I will never, ever buy into any hype this team sells.
June 1st, 2018 at 4:31 pm
Defense Rules
U can’t spin it anyway…. Defense is ranked last for a reason because they are the culprit and they were tuuuurrrible
June 1st, 2018 at 4:32 pm
Year after year the best division in the NFL. Always realistic to be a better team than the year before, but never realistic that we go to the playoffs until we can finally get out of the basement.
June 1st, 2018 at 5:00 pm
6-10 at best.
June 1st, 2018 at 6:48 pm
@DR
Yeah I agree that they definitely have building blocks and expect them to do a lot better this year.
2017 was a visual lesson on how important a pass rush is / winning the trenches in general. Even with talented LBs / some secondary pieces it didn’t matter if the QB is allowed to get that comfortable.
I also am not as down on the coaches as most. I think Mike Smith had more sh1t to deal with last year than one of our coordinators has had to in a while. And it’s not like the last coaching regimes were leading any good defenses. They’ve all sucked lol. The best defensive play I’ve seen under any recent staff was during the 2016 stretch when our pass rush was decent
June 1st, 2018 at 6:52 pm
You know all that yardage and we still couldn’t do better than 20 points a game. We couldn’t even outscore our own defense. Joe talks about and acts as if the defense being the sole reason for our losses last year. Ok when the defense gave away the game in the fourth quarter it was enough to beat 20 points. Had we scored 30 points then those last minute fourth quarter scores that Joe likes to use to defend Jameis’s poor play inside the red zones would have meant nothing.
No More Excuses
June 1st, 2018 at 6:54 pm
@ Buddy… That’s why they play the games son. Your the delusional one, if you think that this team not ready! I for one do not believe we are 4th best in division, LAST YEAR is over “buddy” and this time last year the Saints were supposed to be in basement and won division. Apparently some people haven’t paid attention to Nfl for past DECADES, if they did, they would clearly see that every season is different and different contenders rise each year……..( drops mic)
June 1st, 2018 at 9:05 pm
Our defense ranked 22 out of 32 for giving up on average 23.9 points per game. The Eagles won the super bowl with a 29.0 scoring average. The Buccaneers offense scored 20.9 points on average.
The point is, ..if we want to get into the post season the Bucs are gonna have to score more points than their defense.
They are actually not far off from each other, maybe if we could have flipped it ..score 23.9 points per game and defense give up 20.9 we would have made the playoffs
June 2nd, 2018 at 3:47 am
Ive watched these bozos since their first year.
I am so sick of all the coulda, shoulda, gonnas.
They are a 5-11 team, and suck badly!!
In August, they will have a chance to be 1-0
Talk to me then, cause you are losers right now
June 2nd, 2018 at 12:52 pm
SO IN COUNTING GAMES WE HAVE ABOUT 6 OR 7 LOSING BY A TOUCHDOWN OR LESS. THESE ARE AGAINST FAIRLY GOOD TEAMS. AND REMEMBER WE HAD A REALLY BAD FIELD GOAL KICKER FOR LIKE HALF THE SEASON THAT LOST US AT LEAST 1 OR TWO OF THOSE GAMES. WE HAVE THE TALENT ON BOTH SIDES TO COMPETE. WE JUST HAVE TO KNOW HOW TO WIN. I AM EXCITED TO SEE WHAT THE BUCS DO IF WE CAN GET OFF TO A FAST START LIKE 3-1 OR 4-2 THEN YES PLAYOFFS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
June 3rd, 2018 at 9:02 am
In the NFL you need heart along with talent to win games. I saw the Bucs lack heart in many games they should have won last year. They certainly have the talent. They need to get the heart of a winner. Maybe JPP and Vinny Curry will help the defense have this. There are players on offense who already have this heart. If the defense acquires this same mentality then the sky is the limit. Go Bucs.
June 4th, 2018 at 8:39 am
This picture of Koetter looks like “Walter” https://www.google.com/search?q=walter+jeff+dunham&rlz=1C1GGGE_enUS425US440&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=QqkncGLVdDpyNM%253A%252CA-vAxId-lWrQOM%252C_&usg=__c55zIlVXvzGcq58Y7PiE6U3WLA0%3D&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiird7_grrbAhUMt1MKHZaeCYUQ_h0IpQEwDg#imgrc=eIvyLmGMMMPa6M: