Fixing The Red Zone Offense
May 27th, 2018
Culprit located?
Yes, Bucs fans are focused on the red zone offense almost as much as they are on the connection between America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, and DeSean Jackson.
Earlier, Joe brought word from respected former NFL defensive back turned NFL executive turned BSPN talking head Louis Riddick, who stated he went over every Bucs red zone play last season and concluded drops — not so much the quarterback — killed the Bucs.
The stats dug up by Jenna Laine of ESPN seem to back up Riddick’s film-watching.
Of all receivers the Bucs targeted in the red zone, Jameis threw to perhaps the perfect target, a 6-5 giant of a receiver, Mike Evans. But the results, Laine documents, were less than ideal.
Brate was targeted 12 times and had five catches in the red zone, all for touchdowns. He also had two drops. Evans was targeted a whopping 18 times (25 percent of his routes run) and managed just four catches with three touchdowns.
Unless Joe’s math is off — remember just how fond (sarcasm) Joe is of his grade school nuns — which is entirely possible, that comes out to a paltry 22 percent of Evans’ targets in the red zone were caught.
That simply has to improve. Joe isn’t looking at the All-22 film to study for this post. So Joe doesn’t know for sure if those are simply flat out drops or poor passes by Jameis, or merely a combination. But those are just bad numbers from a receiver as talented as Evans.
People can whine all they want about Evans’ lack of YAC. Frankly, Joe is more concerned with Evans not making money catches in the red zone than his YAC.
May 27th, 2018 at 12:22 pm
I think another factor is the bad play calling in the red zone even though the coaches disagree. But I remember plays like throwing the same pass twice in a row to Evans or the fact we have 2 really good TEs but seldom used both in the red zone.
May 27th, 2018 at 12:25 pm
If we even had an Average Red Zone percentage, an Average running game, and an average Kicker last yr those 7 one score losses would look a lot different.
Throw in an Average D and we probably win all of those
I am excited for this yr!
May 27th, 2018 at 12:41 pm
It’s a well worn cliche that the field shrinks inside the red zone…Ds get bunched up less space for targets to work…tighter throws from the QB.
And if you subtract a running game from the equation and every play is a throw to one of your very talented TE’s or your star WR it becomes a real challenge.
Of all the players who can make a difference immediately…some would say JPP…I think ROJO is the guy. If teams have to worry about him breaking a tackle or our OL creating just a little seam for him…this guy is to the house before you can say “give him six!!!”.
May 27th, 2018 at 12:42 pm
A solid running back threat will help in a tremendous way. I’m with you SB, I like our chances just fine.
May 27th, 2018 at 1:03 pm
Timing and execution…is the formula for Red Zone success….
May 27th, 2018 at 1:19 pm
One stat that simply floors me is that our longest rushing TD was 2 yards last year……that seems almost impossible!!!
Something was dreadfully wrong.
Add in some poor playcalling…..Interceptions weren’t much of a problem because Jameis does a good job there….
2 yards?……wow!!!
May 27th, 2018 at 1:35 pm
Is everyone picturing a fade pass to Evans on the right side of the end zone? Jameis had a few that were off target but Evans is also the most interfered Wr that doesn’t ever seem to get the call and don’t think the DBs haven’t noticed.
I’m with everyone else in believing a decent running game is going to go a long way to solving our RZ efficiency issues. I like what I’ve seen with ROJOs redzone runs at USC but I think it’s more likely Barber gets most of the short yardage work.
May 27th, 2018 at 1:47 pm
Wow, this is cool! Joe throws ME13 & Brate under the bus … and nobody bites. Evans was targeted 18 times in the Red Zone, and only caught 4 of those? Brate is targeted 12 times in the Red Zone, and only caught 5 of those? That’s like 9 catches in 30 targeted passes … 30%. Forget rushes. Forget play-calling. Forget kickers. Forget defense. Call it like it is: Catching only 30% sucks, big time! Off to the Pit of Misery. Dilly dilly.
May 27th, 2018 at 1:51 pm
I think we got the jist, Defense Rules. We may be trying to quit dwelling on the negative crap that’s not gonna make a difference either way. Moving on. The boys are gonna get it right this season, so it’s support the effort and tighten up. We got the makeup this season to turn it around. We all know what happened last season, it’s time to look ahead.
May 27th, 2018 at 1:53 pm
If Jameis learns and trust all his weapons that are available there will be a higher percentage of scoring in the red zone . This is the point of emphasis that which coach Todd Monken was referring too. Play smart, think quick, don’t press, let the game slow down. I predict we’re going to have a bunch of Buc’s at this years Pro-bowl.
May 27th, 2018 at 1:57 pm
Who the hell says “dilly dilly” anymore…… or ever?
May 27th, 2018 at 2:35 pm
Brate and Evans in particular both faced tight and usually some form of double coverage in the red zone/end zone last year. They were obviously Winston’s “favorites” in those situations – and defenses played accordingly. The lack of a legit running game for most of the year was also a big factor in the red zone failures.
Get the run game cranking and spread the ball around better to include Godwin, Hump, DJax and RBs more in the red zone. Problem solved.
May 27th, 2018 at 3:33 pm
No running game and questionable play calling hurt the most in the red zone.
May 27th, 2018 at 4:01 pm
Why I think Mike is going to blow up this year. He was pissed at himself talking about his play last year and in general at his PC last week. Gonna work hard and use a hydrogen bomb to light a fire up under his bung hole.
May 27th, 2018 at 4:03 pm
This article goes to show Winston clearly over-targets Evans and Brate in the red zone. They’re great receivers and you generally want them to get the ball, the problem is he sometimes throws toward them even when they’re covered well. It reminds me of last season’s home game against the Saints. Winston was determined to grant ME13 his 1000 yard accomplishment. He accomplished it alright, but threw 2 picks and 11 incompletions targeting him. This mindset seems to follow him in the redzone. As Jenna mentioned, this particular issue can be remedied by Winston intentionally looking for other receivers (namely the open man). There are more than just those 2 receivers running routes on the play.
May 27th, 2018 at 5:04 pm
I like the idea of a 2 TE set with Evans and Godwin on the outside with RoJo in the backfield. On paper that’s a tough match up for anyone
May 27th, 2018 at 5:30 pm
Some of that was lack of patience, rushing the play and no chemistry on the fade pattern instead of pitch and catch
May 27th, 2018 at 6:14 pm
#FreeOJStocker
Isolate OJ on 1 side and do a simple out pattern (ala Travis Kelce)
At 6’6 250lbs and runs 4.5 forty, OJ is indefensible
“Its the scheme Stupid”
Kobe Faker
May 27th, 2018 at 7:16 pm
Fades are killing me in this red zone offense. Such a low percentage play. For the life of me I don’t know why koetter won’t throw slants. After you show that on film do fakes then a hard out. Basically just turn around and catch it. No corner of the ending stuff… Oh yeah and how crazy would a run be, now that we should be improved in that area?!
May 27th, 2018 at 7:19 pm
End zone
May 27th, 2018 at 10:04 pm
Riddick also mentioned Jameis throwing the ball out of the endzone. Funny thing was only mentioned Brate as having to catch the ball. Fades to Evans have worked in the past .But ball placement has to spot on. The other thing I have noticed on passes to Evans in the endzone sometimes he is fighting the defender just to get his hands up in the air at t times .Defenses get away with a lot more grabbing and holding in the endzone.
May 27th, 2018 at 11:16 pm
While Glennon was one of the worst QBs to don a Buc’s uniform, red zone scoring was one of his few fortes. Check out his red zone scoring and compare it to Jameis’ percentage and it may be we need to let our backup QBs compete at red zone scoring with the first string Offense and if one of them is better than Jameis in that department, pull Jameis from the field and let him rest while the backup QB gets the score. It would encourage Jameis 30 yards out to go ahead and try a 30 yard pass for the TD. Do what works! And with a take it to the house RB we might be getting more TDs without waiting for the red zone. Also if our OL can give Jameis five seconds and Koetter can use his four deep Offense with Evans, VJax, Godwin, and Watson and throw to the open receiver and get TDs that way too.
May 28th, 2018 at 1:54 am
The good news is that we were 8th in the league in making it into the red zone, 3.3 times a game, about average for the Jameis era (3.2 and 3.4 in 15 and 16, respectively) compared to 2.4, 2.2 (dead last) and 2.6 times a game the three previous years. Of course, it’s not always good as when Kuechly caught Doug Martin from behind in the red zone (and then he and his compatriots held us to three, thus costing us 4 points in a game we would lose by 3).
We went 26 out of 53 for 49.1%, which was 24th in the league. Thus, we’ve been on this “How terrible the red zone offense was.” When you read the threads on JBF, the writing is really atrocious with a couple of exceptions. But, it’s the understanding of stats and quant where mental slowfootedness is most obvious.
If we had been average in red zone scoring, we would have scored 2.4 more touchdowns, over the course of a season. Eight more points would not have made us 11-5 instead of 5-11. If you Ground Hog Day it, and replay the season over and over again 100 times, with the same players, the same conditions, that number bounces around randomly by about five touchdowns a year.
The point here is that 2.4 less RZ touchdowns over an entire season doesn’t necessarily mean that there was “horrible play calling,” “terrible quarterbacking,” or “receiving issues” beyond what you’d expect in random variation. And if you take it a step further and focus an inordinate amount of effort on “fixing this terrible issue, which kept us from having a winning season instead of a losing one,” while ignoring other more demonstrable weaknesses, poor oline play, a runner on Mollies and a last in everything defense, well that’s the definition of misusing stats and analytics.
May 29th, 2018 at 6:56 am
Just keep running the pitch sweep from 3 yards out……