“You Have To Post A Winning Season”
May 11th, 2018
Expectations and job security discussed.
So, what will it take for Team Glazer not to change the bedsheets come January?
It would seem from an outsider that Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht and head coach Dirk Koetter might just be on a mandate.
The Bucs haven’t been to the playoffs in a decade, haven’t won a playoff game since January 2003. After posting only their second winning season in 2016 since Chucky was jettisoned, the Bucs fell flat on their collective faces last year and finished 5-11.
The only coach Team Glazer has ever retained after two consecutive losing seasons was the same guy who won the franchise’s only Super Bowl. Koetter has no such resume.
In a recent edition of the Sports Day Tampa Bay podcast, Bucs beat guy Rick Stroud was asked what is the minimum number of wins it would take for Team Glazer to keep Licht and Koetter.
Stroud confessed that’s difficult to answer as there are all sorts of variables. He noted the Bucs could have a roaring start only to see America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, go down with an injury and then the team collapses. Not exactly a firable offense for Koetter.
There is also the threat of a suspension still hanging over Jameis’ head, Stroud noted.
Stroud offered it very well could be a playoffs-or-bust type of season for Licht and Koetter.
“It is always tough to put a number of wins because you don’t know how the season unfolds,” Stroud said. “Injuries aside and suspensions and all of those things — look, I think they have to have a winning season. I don’t know how 8-8 gets you back. Do they have to make the postseason? Well, it’s been 10 straight years. Jason Licht has had five drafts and has not made a postseason. Dirk Koetter, obviously has not either.
“I think in a way it is playoffs or bust but in terms of number of wins, I think you need nine to have a chance to even look at a playoff spot and I think you at a minimum, you have to post a winning season. I am going to say 9-7 with certain circumstances. But in all probability, as Raheem Morris used to say, it is a race to 10. … Somewhere between 9 and 10 [wins] would be a sweet spot.”
Joe could see Licht and Koetter brought back with an 8-8 season. Just look at the division they play in and the nasty first month of the schedule.
It appears Team Glazer looks at progress. You know, the proverbial arrow pointing up?
If Jameis plays like the first round pick he is, if the defense plays at best average, if there are no alley beatings on the road in domes like there were last year (Minnesota, Arizona, New Orleans and Atlanta), yeah, Joe could see Licht and Koetter brought back with an 8-8 mark.
A losing record? All bets are off.
It seems, though, that Licht may have more job security than Koetter. Remember, Koetter’s words from last year on “Hard Knocks” could come back to bite him in the arse.
Koetter boasted how talented the Bucs were. Yet they finished 5-11.
Joe has yet to read or hear anywhere that Licht’s wheeling and dealing this offseason did not improve the roster. If there is another losing season, not sure that gets dumped all in Licht’s lap.
May 11th, 2018 at 8:11 am
Really hope they pull off some kind of miracle and go 9-7 or 10-6. I reallyyyyy don’t want to go through another rebuild….
May 11th, 2018 at 8:20 am
They have to ability now to win double digits….still need some FA veteran help in the defensive backfield and probably a FA vet RB…it all starts by winning the first game of the season
May 11th, 2018 at 8:27 am
sadly, it’s 7-9 at best. tough schedule, tough division
May 11th, 2018 at 8:31 am
I legitimately think if Dirk uses the talent he has properly, they can win 9-10 games. Three things need to happen. JW plays like he did at the end of last season sans the fumbles, JPP flirts with 10 sacks, and Ronald Jones is the feature back on day 1. If not, Dirk gone but Light will stay. Mark the tape.
May 11th, 2018 at 8:33 am
I really am hoping Koetter survives……Smith not so much…..we should show an improvement in our record.
As desperately as I want continuity, I want victories…..Koetter must produce a 9-7 season or I’m OK with the firing.
I don’t have high expectations like last year….but I always have hopes.
May 11th, 2018 at 8:35 am
[Not sure what the sister of the powers that be at One Buc Palace has to do with the job security of a coach and GM. — Joe]
May 11th, 2018 at 8:45 am
If the owners have a playoffs or the coaches are gone, then that is the wrong attitude!!!!! There is major turnover in the trenches this year ( 6 new position players) and to get that smoothly out of the gate historically is very difficult!!!!! The roster still has holes, but no surprising since this team draft #1 overall from 2015!!!!!! The owners should have extended the coaches and GM after the end of year!!!!!! You stand behind your guys, not leave them out to dry!!!!!! Do you get the best Free-agents when the GM is in his last year and on the hot seat???? You can always evaluate the staff at the end of the year!!!! which loses the most money, firing coaches and front office after extensions, or losing seasons?????????
Clear the distractions and setup your personal in the best position to succeed!!!!!!!! This does not happen in Tampa!!!!!! They will play one of the hardest schedule and overcome obstacles created by those that are on the same team and so-called fans!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 8:47 am
A “tough schedule” doesn’t make an acceptable defense…..The objective is to build a contender that is in the hunt for the playoffs every year. I think a pass can be made if Winston is suspended…..other then that, its win or else. To be frank, winning is why you take Winston and his character concerns with the 1st overall pick…..A franchise QB is supposed to give you an edge to compete with anyone on any sunday…….Its year 5 for Licht, year 4 for Winston in the same offense…..Teams all over the league are turning things around within 2….3 yrs tops. Its time to compete and win against teams that count. Because frankly, if you get to the playoffs and then lose against good teams, you’re going to be fired anyways….just ask Dungy and Gruden.
May 11th, 2018 at 8:56 am
To early to say…. No doubt this is an important season for both Koetter and Light. I think both have positives and negatives,and JW investigation doesn´t help at all, but we have to wait and see. I think the roster still has some weakness but there is no doubt we are more talented than last year. But the big problem is we are in the toughest division on th NFL…….But I am still optimistic!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 9:21 am
Seems like a rather silly discussion to be having before training camp even starts. Strength of schedule, incorporation of new starters, number of remaining ‘holes’, injuries and leadership will all play a role in our final record this year (plus surely a number of other factors). How could anyone possibly know how this season will go when we’ve barely finished the draft?
Licht has pretty much done his part, although I do expect us to sign at least a couple more veterans (OLine & Secondary) before our 1st regular season game. I’m not even concerned about Smitty being able to meld all his new toys into a well-oiled fighting machine. He’ll git ‘er done & our defense will improve markedly. Not so confident about the Dirk & Jameis show however. Dirk still wearing 2 hats (HC & OC) is less than ideal. And Jameis has to overcome his turnoveritis for us to be a contender. Turnovers killed us last year, and they’ll kill us again this year if Jameis doesn’t correct that.
May 11th, 2018 at 9:33 am
Anybody that does not think the bucs should have a winning season or clean house doesn’t pay for season tkts . NO excuses !
May 11th, 2018 at 9:43 am
Klueless Koetters” 1990″s offense and playcalling doesnt work in the modern Nfl
Klueless Offense bogs down. create a hole? Klueless puts more blockers…4 tighends and 2 full backs …lol
the modern nfl is to put the skilled played in space ALONE without blockers…
ALL THEY DO IS GET IN THE WAY
3- 13
Licht bulb survives and brings in John Defilippo or Jim Swartz
May 11th, 2018 at 9:45 am
I think it depends on if Dirk shows improvement. If they go 9-7 and miss the playoffs because they lost 3 games over Dirks bone headed time management calls, then adios. If they go 9-7 and miss the playoffs yet could have gone 6-10 if Dirk hadnt made great calls then he’s in. Lets face it theres gona be at least 3 games a year won and lost over a coaches decision near the end of half or game. Dirk has killed the team recently. I’m hoping for improvement. I know he knows better. He must have had too much on his plate during the games or something. He needs to figure it out soon.
May 11th, 2018 at 9:47 am
Sorry Realist that some of the “real fans” actually want to pay to watch a team win and not settle for a have hearted effort(Minn last year, AZ the year before that) and coaching that leaves a lot to be desired. The way you make excuses for this coaching staff you would think it would be ok with you if they never actually won, but tired really hard.
Yah, trophies for everyone we tired hard today and are all rich despite making our fans want to throw up for the 12th year in a row. But its ok because we have new players in the trenches. News flash smart guy all teams have new players that is what the coachers are for.
Why don’t you do another one of your ridiculous reposts from last year and make the same ridiculous excuses since that’s all you do with every post.
May 11th, 2018 at 9:52 am
Jameis has a lot to overcome like koetters 1980 playbook, the defense and having no right-side of an offensive line.
That aside (lmao) if they can somehow find a way to protect jameis where he has 3-4 seconds to throw then I think Jameis can win 12 games this year.
He’s beaten every team on the schedule except 3. He has better weapons on offense than in previous yrs. and well he’s jameis!
Looking back at highlights I’m beginning to think Derwin James may have been the better pick idk but that safety position is like non-existent. It’s like teams can throw TDs at will within 2 seconds of hiking the ball.
May 11th, 2018 at 9:54 am
Let’s face the fact, that we have a tough schedule every year. Stop bringing up this excuse over and over again. We have to be tough opponents ourselves! With the additions made by our GM, we have a chance to realize this obvious goal!
Let’s assume we just had the current roster last year and look back on the games and the potential different outcome:
Week 1 Bye
Week 2 CHI – win
Week 3 MIN – loss
Week 4 NYG – win
Week 5 NE – win (just by having a competent kicker)
Week 6 ARI – win (by having a D-line)
Week 7 Buf – win (by having a D holding on to lead 3:14 from the end)
Week 8 CAR – loss
Week 9 NO – loss
Week 10 NYJ – win
Week 11 MIA – win
Week 12 ATL – loss
Week 13 GB – win (should have won even last year)
Week 14 DET – win (better run game give us the edge)
Week 15 ATL – loss
Week 16 CAR – win (just no one on the D-line jumping offside some seconds from the end)
Week 17 NO – win
Could have been an 11-5 season.
Feel free to share your thoughts on this.
May 11th, 2018 at 9:57 am
10wins and playoffs or this staff will be gone….point blank period…..remember pederson, mularky, gase and McAdoo all were hired along with dirk and have taken their team to the playoffs already…..and we embarrassed philly in 2015 yet they had a quick turn around once they hired Pederson…..
im not even giving this staff the injury excuse because we have a vet that went 2-1 last year and ryan griffin who was hand picked by dirk and has been being groomed by him for 4years now…..
not buying the injury excuse either…..dolphins won 6games without their starting QB….vikes won a ton of games without their starting QB….eagles won a SB without their starting QB…..hell, the jets won 5games without a QB all year!!!!
this staff has run out of excuses!!!!!…..
SOS
HK
injuries
IRMA
lovie
Dom
lack of talent
lack of depth
no RB
no DE’s
cant be used in 2018!!!!!!…..the only thing that will save this staff is 10wins and playoffs!!!!!!
someone will get exposed this year!!!!….will it be the coaches and scheme or the players and talent?….we shall see!!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 9:59 am
Kobe I wrote that before I read your post haha his playbook is ancient.
He needs a top ten def in order to win with his brand of Football.
May 11th, 2018 at 10:09 am
I know that the sheep and so called fans get overly excited after free-agency and the draft!!!!!! They start making ridiculous claims and want to play 16 games against playoff teams because to “be the best you have to beat the best”!! and playoffs or best because every job is on the line!!!!! But that is not how the nfl works!!!! Do the Bucs have the most talented roster in the division!!!!! Is this roster guaranteed to win the division unless the coaches stand in the way???? I think not!!!!! While they are not the best coaching staff in the NFL they are good enough!!!!! They have both on each side of the ball got a meager roster to over achieve for a short period of games!!!!!! I do not trust the Glazers to find upgrades for them!!!!!!!! I want them to play it out and build the roster that was one of the worst a few short seasons ago!!!!!! The ceiling of potential talent has been raised but has the floor??????
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 10:12 am
Face it Joe, they were not competitive in the least last year. If they are super competitive and all the losses are close games and they finish 8-8, the Glazers would be foolish in changing. The off season and draft shored up the trenches. You have potentially new strength at the safety and CB positions and a solid running back potential. I am only concerned with the right side of the OL.
May 11th, 2018 at 10:15 am
@DB
wow the 80s? I said 90s…your hard on Klueless…LOL
JW cant improve and cant go to the next level within Koetters scheme and playbook
the deep passing attack is fine BUT MUST BE setup by the efficient short passing
have the defense respect the short slants, crossing patterns and numerous screens than go deep
next year when the new HC/ offensive coordinator comes in…
the 2019 offense will be running thru OJ Howard and Chris Godwin whose skillset is the short passing routes and running after catch
May 11th, 2018 at 10:32 am
Klueless Kobe,
The passing game is set up w the run in this case. Not the short pass…..klueless!
Before saying JW can’t get to the next level with this scheme, let’s wait until He has mastered, no just operates it efficiently then there’s a great opportunity to switch up. BTW, I don’t particularly care for the scheme but that’s different from not having a klue and thinking the scheme is old, outdated. Lol…once again complete mastery of your domain. Klueless no it not at all.
But hey, you got a thriving law practice that probably prevents you from …you know…learning.
May 11th, 2018 at 10:33 am
DR SAYS:
Strength of schedule, incorporation of new starters, number of remaining ‘holes’, injuries and leadership will all play a role in our final record this year
EVERY TEAM IN THE LEAGUE CAN SAY THAT!!!!….LOL….
I don’t see how you can be so confident in smitty when his unit was equally responsible for such a horrible season…..smitty’s unit couldn’t stop the run nor the pass….ranked 32nd in the league….
imo dirk and smitty both have flawed schemes…..the 4vert offense is too predictable and plays take too long to develop…..smitty’s defense is too passive….lack aggression…..
but your somewhat right…..TC will tell us a lot…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 10:35 am
Jim Bob Cooter. Best name of any coach in the NFL.
May 11th, 2018 at 10:36 am
I think if this draft pans out, Licht will stay regardless. If Jameis plays most of the season and the Bucs still do not make the playoffs, Koetter will be fired. If Jameis gets hurt or suspended for 4+ games, Koetter still needs to find a way to win 8 or 9 games or he will be fired for sure.
Again, I think in all likelihood, Licht will stick around.
May 11th, 2018 at 10:40 am
Stroud confessed that’s difficult to answer because he has no clue and no one does. I blamed koetter for his trash play calling, for using guys he had no justifiable reason to and for not using his best players more (hump) simply had to many targets in my eyes compared to the better receivers.
I wanted him gone because I feel he is the weak link but they didn’t for him and this roster had once again been upgraded but on defense. If they can’t stop people from scoring that is on Mike Smith and he should go but now that koetter has been retained at the very least he should finish what they started unless he really proves to be the problem once again
May 11th, 2018 at 10:51 am
rhealist
give me a break!!!!!!!…..even those in the know and that are deeply involved with the bucs(rick stroud & others) know this staff has had plenty of time to produce a decent product and are on the hot seat!!!!!…..
your pissing in the wind with all your rah rah speeches!!!!!!!…..its falling on deaf ears!!!!!…..
now pull your skirt down!!!!!….your tmaxi is showing!!!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 10:58 am
we have 2 coaches that were suppose to be gurus…..one was suppose to deploy a high scoring offense and the other was suppose to produce a strout defense…..
neither have happened!!!!!…..
the offense had more balance and a good run game in 2015…..since then it has become unbalanced and predictable…..the defense has regressed since a strong 5 game stretch 2 years ago!!!!!
that’s all on coaching!!!!!….better coaching…better results……same coaching….same results….
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 11:00 am
Winning season or the entire staff should get cleared out. Five years is long enough.
May 11th, 2018 at 11:02 am
Talents not there
6-10
Db?
Safteys?
O line ?
Running game?
Coach is to soft
May 11th, 2018 at 11:29 am
Destinjohnny Says:
May 11th, 2018 at 11:02 am
Talents not there
6-10
Db?
Safteys?
O line ?
Running game?
Coach is to soft
Please show us the team in the NFL that has Pro Bowlers at every position on the team?
First of all a Safety is a DB but we will ignore that for a second.
CB’s we have 1 first round draft pick and now 2nd round drafts picks.
S we have a 2nd round draft pick and a guy who has started for two different NFL teams during his career. We also have a 4th round pick this year that could impact this years team near the end of the year.
Oline , we have the highest paid center in the league, about to have one of the highest paid left guards in the league (both were earned) a average (at least) left tackle and a right tackle who was playing a Pro Bowl level before he got hurt, and is expected back healthy.
Running back, we have a guy who averaged 4 yards a carry when given the chance AND a highly drafted 2nd round pick that should prove to be a big play threat if nothing more.
Coaching I cant defend and this team DOES have the talent but will they use it correctly? That is the only question on this team, especially on defense.
May 11th, 2018 at 11:35 am
My optimism goes as far as..8-8. Prove me wrong Bucs. And make Smitty call plays on the field with his Defense rather than sittin his a.s in the pressbox chillin.
May 11th, 2018 at 11:36 am
I’m gonna go out on a limb here…
…I think that even if they go 7-9, so long as the players are still buying in, both Licht and Koetter come back.
And here is why: The Glazers love the team as it is being built. They love that the draft has been used to build it.
Hiring a new head coach to come in would mean he would want his own players. Some of these great guys we have would be gone. It would be Michael Bennett all over again.
And that’s why I say this whole ‘hotseat’ fans and the media are talking about are pure myth at this point. The Glazers are reluctant to lose so many players because the new coach would desire his ‘type of players’.
So, unless the team totally falls apart, Koetter and Licht are going nowhere.
Heck, Licht just had his best off season of his career. The rest is up to the coaching staff.
May 11th, 2018 at 11:41 am
Playing in the indisputable toughest division in football I wouldn’t say playoffs or bust, but it had better be 9 and 7 or better. Probably 10 and 6 realistically. Two years ago when Mike Smith was hired I said that day, this hire will be the end.of Dirk Koetter as a head coach in the NFL. It’s almost there. The guy is soft and can’t run a defense. Everyone else is playing chess while he is playing checkers.
May 11th, 2018 at 11:44 am
Buccaneer Bonzai hit the nail on the head!!!!! And I know its fruitless, but if the so-called fans could wait an evaluate the whole year at the end of the season!!!!! And not booo and start naming new coaches after the first loss would be a “real” nice change!!!!!!!!
The roster is a work in progress and they need to keep building!!!! If they are successful its because the coaches overcame the holes in the roster!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 11:58 am
*********************
Jason Licht deserves an immediate contract extension … but Koetter and Smitty better win at least 9 games or both are gone imho
*********************
May 11th, 2018 at 12:12 pm
bonzai
2 problems with that theory….
A.) 7-9 is still a losing season…..this staff cant afford another losing season….not with adding 3 former SB champs along the dline….going 7-9 after going 5-11 isn’t much of an improvement at all….that’s just like when the previous staff went 6-10 after going 2-14….improved in the wins column but did they really improve as a team?….some think so…so don’t….either way it was still another losing season…..
B.) other coaches have come in recently and turned things around in a hurry…..look at dan Quinn….look at Pederson…..look at mcdermitt up in buffalo…..mcvay….gase turned things around in Miami….lynn got 9wins out of the chargers…..
good coaches know how to win with what they got…..rams won a bunch of games last year using a 43 defense that wade doesn’t even run…..he still got production out of them and now they are fully switching to 34….
if they don’t produce 10wins and playoffs, dirk and smitty should be canned and rightfully so!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 12:30 pm
all of this “wait til the end of the year to evaluate” is BS…..
this staff cant afford to have 2 5game losing streaks in the same year just like we did last year!!!!!…..
this team has talent now and it had a decent amount of talent last year!!!!!….how long doesn’t it take an incompetent coaching staff to turn around a franchise?…..about the same amount of time it takes @rhealist to change is dirty tmaxi!!!!!!!!
have dirk and smitty pull your skirt down!!!!…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 12:39 pm
Did Dirk Kotters team not go 9-7 the year before last? We did miss the playoffs, yes. But that is a winning record right after he was hired as HC. Where do you posters get the right to say that these “other” new HC had winning records and not say that our HC also had a winning record? Coach Gruden had several good seasons as well as several bad ones. Most of his bad seasons led to his good season, was it possibly the lesser schedule he was playing that gave us the few double digit win seasons?
May 11th, 2018 at 12:55 pm
I think Licht has added a lot of talent to this team. Has he been perfect? Not at all, but no GM is.
If the team finishes between 7-9 and 9-7, I think Licht will stay regardless. Not sure about Koetter though. He would def need a winning season to stay around, unless there are some crazy circumstances (multiple stars like Jameis, Kwon or JPP all missing significant amounts time).
Is Monken really going to be an offensive coordinator this year? If so, he better mix in some more versatile and unique play designs instead of nothing but 4 verticals / run up the gut. I’m all for a high flying pass offense, but we need some quick throws and not just long developing routes.
May 11th, 2018 at 1:23 pm
I agree 8-8 probably brings them back ….under special circumstances, ie. hurricanes, major injuries, and suspensions even 7-9 but if we’re anything under that then it is time for a fresh perspective. I would not however can Licht unless his 2018 early draft class completely bust. It’s up to coaches to teach and tap into that potential talent.
May 11th, 2018 at 1:54 pm
Licht stays regardless.
Anything less than 8-8 and Koetter’s job is likely at serious risk.
May 11th, 2018 at 2:16 pm
813bucboi … “this team has talent now and it had a decent amount of talent last year!!!!!” I’ll meet you halfway bucboi … this year’s team has talent (still several holes but still have time to fix them). Last year’s team was a joke … the DLine couldn’t stop the run OR pressure the QBs. The Secondary had us all shaking our heads. The RBs couldn’t establish a consistent running game, and the OLine had more holes than a piece of Swiss cheese.
We’ve added 1 rookie RB, 1 very expensive Center, and really solidified the DLine. The Secondary MAY be better, but rookie CBs & Safeties tend to make a LOT of mistakes. The OLine still has at least 1 hole (Guard) & possibly 2 (RT). Make all the predictions you want, but the final record is gonna depend on a myriad of factors, and coaching is only one of those.
May 11th, 2018 at 2:27 pm
The Buc Realist Said:
“Buccaneer Bonzai hit the nail on the head!!!!!”
I am convinced you are both the same person.!!!!!
May 11th, 2018 at 2:37 pm
We have a good guard and a good center
Everyone else is pedestrian.
We have a nice new 3rd down back that looks exciting.
Other then that backs are pedestrian.
We have Brent grimes and a slow
Small disinterested vh3
Then we have rookies.
Saftey is way below average.
Our front 7 will be evil.
Our wideout and tight ends will be crush kill destroy also.
6-10 7-9 at best
May 11th, 2018 at 2:43 pm
I have 1 question for all who defend this defense mainly Realist and Defense rules. Did Schiano have more talent on his defense than what Mike Smith has had.
May 11th, 2018 at 2:46 pm
Jameis is not a “first round” pick. He is a “first” pick. Unfortunately, there have been many talented kids who have been drafted since who have simply been better. Fitzpatrick gives the team its best chance at winning. I think the hot seat coach and GM will realize that between weeks 4 and 5.
May 11th, 2018 at 3:05 pm
@PTwalk
That is an interesting question!!!!! I think that the talent level is decently close when comparing the two units!!!!! Coach Schiano had LVD and GMC in their prime years, As Coach Smitty has GMC who is older and beat up!!!! I like the linebackers, but the truth is they are smaller and injury prone!!!!!!
if you compare the pts per game between the two
Coach Schiano 24.6 and 24.3 vs Coach Smitty 23.1 and 23.9
You also have to consider that the 2017 squad faced the highest rank offenses avg, that the Bucs have seen in a very long time!!!!!
Once again, Coach Smitty has had no D-line and was able to manufactured a pass rush in 2016!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!