You Snooze You Lose
April 23rd, 2018
Please don’t wait.
More evidence of you get what you pay for when an NFL team tries to go the cheap route for a running back.
Joe wrote recently that waiting until the third day of the draft to find your answer at running back is often a lost cause. It certainly is in Bucs history and last year’s draft reinforced this notion.
If you want a game-changing running back, waiting until Day 3 of the draft is, in fact, a back-breaker.
Now you can add data-driven, limousine-ridin’, jet-flyin’, kiss-stealin’, data-analyzin’, Bucs-film-studyin’ Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times to those who also see the light. He wrote Sunday how this notion that a team can routinely find a game-changing running back on the third day of the draft to be an urban legend.
I’m sorry to say so, but, sadly, it’s true. The conventional wisdom has fooled you.
In advance of Thursday’s draft in Philadelphia and amid speculation about the Buccaneers’ interest in running backs, the Tampa Bay Times studied a decade’s worth of drafts. We found that teams don’t find difference-making running backs late because there’s an abundance of them; they find running backs late because they take a lot of them late.
Bassinger tore through a decade’s worth of research of every running back drafted late.
The percentages to support the narrative that good running backs can be found late just isn’t there. Offensive line, defensive line and defensive backs drafted late have a higher percentage of success in the NFL than late-drafted running backs.
Joe sure hopes there is some way Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht can find a way to get a running back no later than Friday night. Sony Michel of Georgia would be a nice grab.
If the Bucs cannot get Saquon Barkley.
All-you-can-eat buffet available starting at 6 p.m. and runs all night long. Be there!! Joe and Ira Kaufman will be in the house with the Stick Carriers and The Commish. Raw energy and Bucs love everywhere.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:07 am
Gonna have to wheel and deal future picks. If this is the guy you want then go after him at all cost.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:08 am
If the Bucs stay at 7(which is highly likely) then most likely the first round selection is either going to be Derwin James or Quenton Nelson.
There should be at least two of the top running backs available at the Bucs 2nd round pick Michel, Chubb, Penny, Jones.
Any of those four running backs would be a significant upgrade at the position for the Bucs.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:11 am
You guys have now written about Guice, Michel, Chubb, and Jones. All very good options at RB. Do you still like Barkley over Nelson after seeing how many other good RBs that are there who could make an immediate impact?
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:14 am
Joe,
Have you heard about Adam Gase’s “Obsession” with Josh Rosen? I think of all the QBs he is the one who could possibly be there at 7. Miami would have to give their 11th and 42nd picks to move up.
There is a real chance we could still get Derwin James at 11 or any of the other picks mocked to us recently.
Vita Vea and even Derrius Guice start to come into play a little bit at 11 too.
I believe that with 38 and 42 the Bucs would certainly take a RB.
What do you think about the REAL chances of moving back, because I still think there is a possibility?
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:16 am
I love this Kid! He has the shake and bake, power and speed. He has the juice to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Would love to see him on our Bucs team!!!
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:18 am
I wish there was an edit button.
Miami’s 3rd and early 4th would be closer to even.
Bundle these and they can still move up.
Either way it’s a win for Tampa.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:24 am
I too, think there is a chance we get to move down…..if that’s the case and it is Buffalo….I like Hernandez & Sony with our first two picks (1st Round)
I would love Sony, but don’t think he’ll be there with our 2nd round pick.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:25 am
Still moderating?
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:27 am
Fix your defense please. Every other team in this division made the playoffs so did your defense to slow them down. I am a big Winston fan but the idea of him getting in a shootout with Brees or Ryan and expecting him not to be the first qb to turn it over is crazy thinking. Want to increase your chances of finding a late round gem draft two backs
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:28 am
Trade down for more picks. We have more than 2-3 needs. Lots of good picks in rounds 2-4 to fill holes. Several good RBs in round 2, as has been mentioned ad nauseum.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:32 am
I am a Nick Chubb with the second pick guy
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:37 am
Of course!
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:39 am
Agree – Nick Chubb, if injury is fully healed, would be an excellent pick.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:40 am
Trading back to #11 with Miami would be perfect.
Good probability that either James or Ward is still on the board at 11 and we net Miami’s high 3rd and mid 4th rd picks in the process.
Our picks would be 11, 38, 73, 102 and 123.
Picks 102 and 123 could be coupled to move up as high as about pick #90 in the 3rd round.
1) James or Ward
2) RB
3) CB (depending on 1st pick) – OG (if Ward was drafted in 1st)
3) OG, SS or DT (depending on 1st and 3rd rd picks)
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:48 am
Joe says:
“If the Bucs cannot get Saquon Barkley.” You said it!
“Can not” can be such an interpretative phrase, and the JBF faithful could draw any of the conclusions they’d like. “Can” Jason fashion a sleuth acquisition strategy to snag Saquon, absolutely. The “will” is the unknown quotient, goes without saying. But THIS Bucs fan has several scenarios in mind, that Licht certainly “can” get Barkley. Michel isn’t a bad alternative, and there will likely be many teams from #20-#32 that will target him as the #2 RB after Barkley, with all others presenting other circumstances. THIS Bucs fan believes that Licht will institute the Saquon Snatch-and-Grab!
Go Bucs! Go Bold! Go Barkley! Go Primetime!
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:49 am
If Barkley or B. Chubb are not available at 7, I pray we find a suitor to trade down and acquire more picks.
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:51 am
I really like this Michel kid! Reminds me of Matt Forte….just a bit smaller!
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:51 am
We’ve played the “draft RB later in the draft” for far too long. Get a RB!
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:51 am
my barber is from buffalo….huge bills fan….he said he’s hearing from the bills camp that they really like josh allen and are going to trade up with the jets to grab him…..
not sure if that makes sense to me from the jets point of view unless they’ll settle for l.jackson(who I think is another d.watson)…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:52 am
Joe Says:
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:37 am
Do you still like Barkley over Nelson
Of course!
YUP!!!
Go Bucs!
April 23rd, 2018 at 9:55 am
D@$!,me and that Blake kid argued tirelessly over this over this last season. Unfortunately for me I’m a 9 to 5er and don’t have time go over decades worth of data. Glad someone did tho. Crush this dumb@$$ notion once and for all.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:01 am
And let me say it again,at the time of the injury. DC was second in the league in rushing. That while sharing rush attempts with Murray and McKinnon.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:02 am
I would be very happy with Michel.
We will need to trade back to get Michel.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:14 am
90% of NFL fans want their teams to trade back in the 1st round(and I am one of them as long as it is within 5 picks), but I do not think there is a high probability of it.
My guess is that Jason Licht loves Quenton Nelson and Derwin James and does not want to take the chance that he ends up with neither to trade back unless he gets a fantastic haul.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:18 am
Joe Marino (who Joe said in an earlier article was the most accurate mocker last year) says Bucs will trade down with Buffalo to 12 and draft Derwin James. That’s what I suggest they do, and believe they will do, unless Nelson drops to them.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:24 am
The point Bassinger isnt making is that you dont need a “game-changing” RB to win. Just look at this past Super Bowl. Were any of the RBs in it drafted before the 4th round?
Plus the reason the “urban legend” exists is because RBs are undervalued in the league so they fall further in the draft. McKinnon just got paid how much? $8 million and is in the top 5 highest paid RBs in the league.
The value isnt there unless you are changing your offense scheme to be a run first scheme like Dallas when they took Zeke or Jags and Fournette. The Bucs are not in that situation.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:25 am
The 2nd and 3rd rounds are the sweet spots for RBs.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:39 am
@NOSBOS
So Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara, the 2 best rookie running backs weren’t drafted in the 3rd round? Notice how Joe didn’t actually include the percentages he referenced? But it doesn’t matter, because I know that Stud running backs can be found in rounds 2-5.
Please.
Btw, I’m not against drafting a truly Special RB in the 1st. If you recall, I didn’t want us to draft a skinny running back with a significant injury history and average athleticism because those kind of backs don’t last in the NFL. And what happened? He tore his ACL 3 games into the season.
Barkley is a better prospect than Cook in every conceivable way.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:47 am
I say again,was second in the league in rushing at the time of the injury. That while sharing carries auth Murray and McKinnon homeboy. Screw yo weak @$$ notion. He very well have been the rushing leader. ACL’s are common. Today’s medicine will have it stronger than before the injury. That Gurley kid ain’t missed a beat.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:48 am
You also were BIG on go go gadget mccaffery. He ended up being precisely what I said he would be. A glorified WR.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:54 am
I dunno I am torn, with Brees, Big Ben and Wentz on the horizon in a few short months we better get some serious secondary help or were going to get embarrassed.
Again……
JP aint gonna make a sack every play. I’ll bet we go defense top two picks.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:56 am
Most playoff teams have pro bowlers at QB, OL,DL or secondary
RB is important, but do you want highlights or wins?
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:56 am
Yeah second in the league behind a 3rd round pick. And after playing a game against the worst and one of the softest Defenses in the league. And then his body failed him. His body breaking down this frequently at that young of an age does not bode well for his future.
You’re as dead wrong about Cook being something as you were dead wrong about a Pass rush not being important
As for McCaffrey, who quietly had on of the better rookie seasons of 2017, being Carolinas RB2/ 3rd down back, he got 1000 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns. Last time I checked it’s considered a positive attribute for a Running back to be able to catch the ball out of the back field and make plays.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtxcAi923k0
Cmac is the Caucasian Curtis Martin, and he’s going to go down as the best White Running back of all time, while Cook is going to go down as an Injury prone BUST.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:56 am
The main argument oF this article is off. It’s assuming a team actually needs a great RB to be a champion. But look at the majority of recent champs and find me the team that had the stud, future hall of famer, first round RB?
The Bucs haven’t had success picking RB’s in the first round either…
Cadillac?
Flashes but ultimately disappointing
Muscle Hamster?
Great flashes, surrounded by awful
Bo Jackson?
Sorry, had to.
Build the team The right way. Build up the trenches.
Nelson in round 1
A young DE in round 2
The rest will fall into place.
FIX THE TRENCHES, FIX THE BUCS!!
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:57 am
Talkin that weak skinny ish. You might wanna compare Kamara’s height and weight to DC’s before you make dumb@$$ comments about someone being too skinny porky.
April 23rd, 2018 at 10:58 am
We need a CB in the 2nd rd more than a RB. We’ll have to acquire a 3rd round pick or find a RB in the 4th.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:00 am
I hope so too
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:00 am
I ain’t mad at your chart Tony,and not saying only take one in the first round. The notion of you can just find one later and casually pass up the opportunity to get one that can be impactful to your team is silly to me. Later rounds??? Naah man give me that playmaker whenever he available.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:01 am
Comparing a below average athlete of a 210 pound running back who now has 4 significant injuries and surgeries in the last 4 years, to one of the most physically gifted Running backs in the league, a 6’1 231 pound behemoth with 1 major injury in his whole career.
LOL! Only you could make such a dumb comparison.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:03 am
James at SS and then Davis, Hughes or Oliver at CB and our secondary is set.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:03 am
Phsst… I’m all but positive the panthers will be drafting another rb this draft. That gadget ish don’t win come post season time.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:04 am
You jelly because his body is sculpted and yours,well that’s another subject.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:05 am
Top 3 or trade down for best Guard Available and then Penny or other top RB. Don’t waste a top pick on James just for his potential from the combine because he only had two interceptions last year and only played two games in 2016 due to injury so is an injury risk. If you also pick up a third round pick then get a CB, or SS, or best DE available, or DT prospect, or a Tackle, whichever is highest on Licht’s board. Use fourth and fifth pick for highest player you didn’t pick in the third round, then take Pinero who can kick off and put the ball over the head of other teams returner. He can also kick field goals to compete with your highly paid place Kicker. Take the fastest Special Teams Ace with the seventh pick.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:06 am
Put the link up saying Kamara is 231.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:07 am
Where was Cook come post season time? Oh yeah, he was on his 14th week of IR.
I notice that you ignored my reference to one of the many ignorant arguments you were making this time last offseason about a pass rush not being important.
Because not having one didn’t hurt our team at all last season right?
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:08 am
You compared Cook to Todd Gurley. Who is 6’1 231 pounds.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:08 am
I’ve checked more than once. You remain full of manure.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:09 am
Cook’s body is sculpted? It must be sculpted out of paper mache.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:23 am
He was averaging 4.8 yards a rush attempt,give me that type of paper mache anyday.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:24 am
Need I give you go go gadget’s average???
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:27 am
The DC argument is silly fellas! He isn’t here, is he? In THIS draft, we need to look for legit RB talent. Barkley is the unquestioned top pick with Guice, Michel, Chubb, and the USC dude as the 2nd level. Passing on any of the 5, in my mind would be a huge mistake, especially Barkley.
Adding a run-game makes both the offense AND defense better. Besides, outside of Chubb, is there really 1st round talent at DL? It’s not a deep DL class in terms of edge-rushers IMO.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:34 am
YPC ain’t everything. McCaffrey played a whole season. Cook’s body failed him as it will continue to do so. Because he is brittle, like paper mache.
@Bucsfanman
I agree with you for the most part. But I firmly believe that Rashaad Penny could end up being the 2nd best back in this draft class behind Saquan. I like Chubb, Michel, and Kerryon Johnson a lot as well as well. Mark Walton could very well be the best Value pick if he lasts until the 4th.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:35 am
Things were peaceful with tmax gone(praise Jesus) but now we’re back on with blake and nos about Dalvin Cook
Btw did nos ever pay up on his bet?
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:35 am
I’m not very high on Ronald Jones, his vision is very suspect, runs straight in the backs of his Linemen a LOT on tape.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:38 am
@DGG
Lol, I don’t intend on arguing with this fool for very much longer Pappy. And surprisingly he did end up ponying up $150 of the $250 he owed me. But he appears to have forgotten about the remaining $100.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:40 am
Oh btw Nos I just checked, and Cook’s average was 4.1 and not 4.8 as you said. Still a solid ypc. But guess what? It won’t matter when he’s warming the bench nursing an injury.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:45 am
Blake- Yea, I realized I left out a few names but the point wasn’t lost. Kerryon is very versatile and Penny could be a steal. Given the Mc “Snoop” pick last year, I hope the Bucs don’t wait to address the position.
April 23rd, 2018 at 11:49 am
Nevermind I’m wrong lol. I was looking at the preseason but my main point still stands. A kid can be the next Randy Moss or the next Reggie Whit on the field, but it doesn’t matter one iota if they can’t stay healthy.
Take Noah Spence for example. This kid has the talent to be one the better situational pass rushers in the league, but he may never get to show it if his seemingly chronic shoulder problem continues to hold him down.
April 23rd, 2018 at 12:28 pm
@Bucsfanman,
The Bucs didn’t “wait” to get a 5th round RB. They thought Doug Martin could bounce back after his suspension and have a good year. I doubt anyone thought McNichols was drafted to be a bell cow.
Some guys here think the Bucs should wait around again till the 5th cuz CB is more of a need. CB is a need, but this draft has a lot of great RBs that are going to be a great value/steal of a pick in the 2nd Rd. I think any decent corner can be had to add some competition to Ryan Smith later on. Or we address it in the cuts that will happen after the draft.
The best thing is if we can trade down in the 1st to pick up either an extra 1st rd, 2nd rd, or get our 3rd rd pick back. Then we can address S, RB, and CB through the draft. I really hope the 7th pick is not 1 pick too late at being an attractive pick to some QB needy team. How the first 4 picks shape up will tell the tale.
April 23rd, 2018 at 12:31 pm
If we don’t get Quenton Nelson in the first, we will snooze with Michel or any other RB you plan to get in the second. At least his first year. WE DON’T HAVE A RIGHT SIDE OFFENSIVE LINE!!!! Except for OJ Howard. With only three picks in the top four, we need either Nelson in the first, or Hernandez or Wynn in the second. Koetter’s famous up the gut run scheme didn’t work last year with Martin and it won’t work again this year with a rookie without oline help. And the other pick before or after an OG needs to be a CB. If you want to get a RB in the second we will have to trade back in the first.
April 23rd, 2018 at 12:47 pm
Keep thinking that no one (not even Licht) knows what the Bucs will do when our number is called Thursday night. Jason & all of us will have to wait until 6 other teams pick. He’s surely got all his options laid out (not that difficult), but none of us know what hand will be dealt at #7 … yet.
One thing I’m certain of: WHOEVER he picks in Rnd 1, we’ll all go ‘AWESOME PICK JASON’. Bucs have so many NEEDS the odds of BPA filling one of those needs is probably 100%. IOW, Licht can’t miss in Rnd 1. But Rnd 2 will be a different story. Again he’ll draft for NEED IMO and try to match BPA against our remaining needs, but since we’ve only got ONE 2nd day pick, there’ll be LOTS of moaning afterwards regardless of who Licht selects in Rnd 2 simply because there’ll be a number of other NEEDS that’ll go unfilled at that point. Odds of finding starters appear to go down dramatically after Rnd 3. And we still have several starting holes.
What most of us (including me) have left out of the equation at this point is free agency and trades. And that’s where Licht will really earn his money AFTER the draft. If we go into the season with several starting holes and mediocre depth, we’re screwed.
April 23rd, 2018 at 1:22 pm
The pick is Nelson at 7 , unless by some Christmas Miracle in April , Barkley is there. Any Buc Fan should be elated with Nelson at 7. The other unlikely is a QB drops and then the Cards with #15 or Fins with #11 come calling and we make them pay dearly. Our O-line will be solid for years with Nelson. DRC is an elite corner and with more security at his future pool parties he should be fine at CB. That little incident probably set him back some millions.
April 23rd, 2018 at 3:05 pm
Frankly, I’d rather have Nick Chubb or Rashad Penny over Michel. I’m hearing Guice has some off-field stuff, so I’m not sure how serious that is.
I still say trade down, draft one of the longer corners in mid-late round one. Get our running back with our 2nd rounder, and then maybe the extra pick that came with the trade down could get us an OG like WYnn or Hernandez.
Unfortunately, I doubt the trade down is gonna be all that easy. I guess we’ll see.
Bottom line, we have to get a RB and a CB out of the first 2 days.
April 23rd, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Something I read off lifestylesports101.com……
“There can be no doubting the value of a back with Chubb’s patience and vision and power. However, his limitations in pass catching and pass protection will likely restrict him to being a two-down back at the next level.
The same cannot be said of Michel, who is considerably more than just a change-of-pace back. He is a hugely versatile back who is a substantially better big-play threat than Chubb.
Chubb can definitely have success in the pros, but would likely have to form part of a committee. Though few NFL teams want to rely solely on one tailback, Michel has what it takes to play on every down and it is he who should be the first of the Georgia runners off the board come April’s draft.”
April 23rd, 2018 at 5:36 pm
Well we did find P.Barber as a undrafted player. Not sure if undrafted players were included in the study or if it would change the results at all.
April 23rd, 2018 at 8:29 pm
Very good sidestepping ability by Michel in the highlights.
April 24th, 2018 at 1:23 am
Michel has fumble problems. Pass