Statheads Say Draft Sooners DE
April 18th, 2018
Overlooked defensive end prospect?
If any of Joe’s loyal and disloyal readers might have noticed, Joe is totally down with Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht getting Jason Pierre-Paul.
Still, Joe is hoping Bradley Chubb might somehow slip to No. 2 or the Bucs will trade down and perhaps grab Marcus Davenport later in the first round.
Just because the Bucs got JPP doesn’t mean the edge rush is magically solved. Besides, JPP’s contract is up after the 2020 season.
Friend of JoeBucsFan.com, Mike Tanier of Bleacher Report (his claim to fame outside of being an NFL columnist was that as a high school math teacher in a previous life he once had a pupil by the name of Joe Flacco. Yes, that Joe Flacco), took a deep dive into how Moneyball plays into the draft nowadays.
It is a fascinating look at college players and how the NFL now assesses players using geeky stats. It may be the best read your eyes will see on the draft in the coming days.
At any rate, after Chubb and Davenport, there’s a big drop off in defensive ends.
(Joe is hoping what he heard at the combine about Boston College DE Harold Landry is just nonsense — nothing illegal whatsoever but damning, which may be why he’s getting little run from draft analysts).
Per Tanier, the spreadsheeters, using a specific formula, believe Oklahoma’s Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is being significantly overlooked.
There are many difficulties with performing statistical analysis on college edge-rushers. Sacks are relatively rare, which can distort results. Blockers range from future NFL starters to pudgy future high school phys ed teachers. Many top edge-rushers rack up big sack totals against Middle Nowhere State or benefit from schemes that give them unblocked paths to the quarterback. Others are double-teamed on every snap.
There are several methods for sidestepping these problems. One is to meld analysis with game study. Anthony Chiado does just that each year for the Optimum Scouting Draft Guide, tracking how often each top pass-rusher is double-teamed, how often he’s unblocked, where he lines up, which of his pass-rush moves are most successful and so forth. But Chiado’s research uncovers a variety of secrets about other edge-rushers, most notably Oklahoma’s Ogbonnia Okoronkwo.
Okoronkwo pressed opposing quarterbacks on 25.4 percent of passing plays, second only to Davenport. He was rarely unblocked (just 3.6 percent of his pressures) and beat his opponent with some sort of countermove 25.0 percent of the time. The countermoves reveal Okoronkwo’s ability to do more than just explode out the gate and beat a left tackle to the edge. The Optimum Scouting analysis quantifies Okoronkwo’s ability to work through blocks and find alternate routes to the quarterback, two important skills for success as an NFL pass-rusher.
And as Tanier pointed out earlier in the column why spreadsheeters like Okoronkwo’s teammate Baker Mayfield, the Sooners didn’t just play Big XII slappy teams each week. The last two seasons Oklahoma played Auburn, a loaded Ohio State team twice, and SEC champ Georgia. Okoronkwo also played against Clemson as a freshman.
So now you can add Okoronkwo to Joe’s watch list. This information really has Joe’s ears perked.
April 18th, 2018 at 8:07 am
Wakanda forever! 9 more days!
April 18th, 2018 at 8:12 am
Wakanda Forever indeed! But don’t let the anti-National Anthem kneeling crowd hear that, they’ll lose their crap for that kind of blatant counter-patriotism /sarc.. A Value EDGE, going under the radar? I’ll have a helping of that.
April 18th, 2018 at 8:13 am
O.O. has been on the radar of another Bucs website and mentioned quite often in their podcast. Soooooo…….
April 18th, 2018 at 8:17 am
I watched him play a lot in college and he’s better suited for a 3-4 Defense. He’s quick off the edge but he gets eaten up badly by decent tackles.
April 18th, 2018 at 8:27 am
I don’t know enough about this kid to make a comment so I will plead the 5th.
April 18th, 2018 at 8:35 am
He’s a SMALLER Noah Spence….
April 18th, 2018 at 8:38 am
What are you referring to about Landry, Joes or anyone? Sorry, work has been keeping me very busy lately. Trading back and landing Vea and moving back into the 1st for Landry is what Ive wanted most of all. (or Big Will)
April 18th, 2018 at 8:46 am
This next week is going to take forever to get here.. can’t wait for the draft going to be very interesting to see what Licht does.. so many teams with multiple picks maybe a trade down is the way to go, I’m not that big on that but this season with needs a few more picks…
April 18th, 2018 at 9:00 am
A trade back with the Bills look like the team it would made the most sense with.. get their two first and then they have two seconds and a pretty high third so maybe they can get three total picks form them..
April 18th, 2018 at 9:12 am
Good highlight tape- kid flashes excellent short area burst, shiftiness and leverage. Tough to judge power vs the maulers at T at the NFL level, but he had good production at OU. It kills me that we’re so desperate at DB and RB that we almost have to laser focus on those positions come draft day. IF the big 3 are gone and there’s no trade down partner, Vea might just be the best value-pick between slots 7 and 12. He instantly makes “soft-serve” 93 a little better and helps both the DEs and LBs. In theory, he also helps mask our deficiencies at CB. He could be a more disruptive Ngata (in his prime). In Rd 2, Okoronkwo could be an option OR the best DB avail. This means we wait until Rd 4 to address the RB position or swing a move back into the 3rd depending on who is still on the board.
Man, the draft is soooo close- I can’t wait. Again, don’t be shocked if Vea is the pick.
April 18th, 2018 at 9:36 am
He played a lot stading up, does that translate into an outside LB in the NFL? Does he have the size and quickness to be a DE?
April 18th, 2018 at 10:18 am
Wake Forrest DE Duke Ejiofor. Thoughts Joe?
April 18th, 2018 at 10:18 am
Wakanda forever!!!!!!
don’t we run 43?……we need 43 ends…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 18th, 2018 at 10:50 am
Ade Aruna from Tulane!
He is JPP 2.0.
Nigerian immigrant. Humble and hardworking.
Anyone else notice how many African immigrants are making it these days?
Kamara, Ansah, Aruna, the DE for the Jags, the TE from the Browns, and many more!
No one in America “starts from the bottom.”
Nigerians and Liberians know about the real “bottom.”
Americans are spoiled. African immigrants are slaying it these days!
Jah Bless Africa!
April 18th, 2018 at 11:07 am
Can’t remember the last time Joe watched a Wake Forest game.
April 18th, 2018 at 11:47 am
I’d prefer Ade as well….
April 18th, 2018 at 11:53 am
Agreed teacherman….well said! And Aruna would be a GREAT pick up!
Meanwhile starbucks is the newest protest….haha, welcome to the club. Im white and was asked to leave there a few years ago for not ordering (just wanted a break from the cold for a few) I left w/o any argument, pretty simple. But ive been protesting their lib views for a while now….karma! And they’re not the only coffee!
April 18th, 2018 at 12:13 pm
LOL @ “Lib views”…. Asked to leave < Having police called to escort you out. The Starbucks CEO showed decency.. I guess decency is a "Lib view" now? LOL…
April 18th, 2018 at 12:22 pm
Instead of talking about polarization, can someone explain to me again what this “pass-rush” thing is? You’re allowed to do that to the QB?! It’s like watching the fist pass play in NFL history! Is this a new evolution?!
Can the Bucs start doing it? It looks real cool!
This guy looks a tad undersized but he can play!
April 18th, 2018 at 12:23 pm
He is real similar to Noah Spence. I guess having JPP and Curry as the starters and rotating Spence and a guy like Okoronkwo in clear passing situations isnt a bad idea.
April 18th, 2018 at 12:38 pm
Wouldn’t mind grabbing him in the 4th if we didn’t get Chubb or Davenport.
Madmax please tell us more about your trials with the oppressive liberal bastion known as Starbucks.
April 18th, 2018 at 12:51 pm
I’ve always liked to compare stats game by game for skill players.
If I see an RB who has lots of big games against the “Little Sisters of the Poor” U.
I discount that significantly. If they’re putting up big numbers against “name” schools I’m far more impressed and I love it if they can put up numbers against bitter rivals. Ala-Auburn Fla-Fla St Ohio State-Michigan
April 18th, 2018 at 1:07 pm
Bucs draft 2018:
1. Trades down to get a diamond in the rough project DE most suited for a 3-4 cause he wants to seem savvy.
2. drafts RB to make up for the mcnichols fiasco (Joe will never forget you so hyped on that guy LOL)
3. draft TE cause you can’t have enough TEs – Thinks Oline is overrated
4. drafts QB cause he looks a little like aaron rogers and that can’t be a bad thing right?!
5. drafts an LB – you can never have enough LBs
6. kicker – whatever tehehehehe to piss off buc fans that criticized him for drafting Oboy-o
7. forgets to place the selection due to nap.
April 18th, 2018 at 1:15 pm
@unbelievable- I feel more “liberal” just talking about Starbucks!!! Especially since I destroyed my Keurig!!!
‘Murica! LOL!
April 18th, 2018 at 1:20 pm
Dude looks like he’ll be a great 3-4 OLB/DE but not sure about 4-3.
I’d rather go Harold Landry if we’re taking a smaller edge rusher.
Guys like Robert Mathis were 240-250 lbs and were solid 4-3 edge rushers. It can be done.
April 18th, 2018 at 1:23 pm
@unbe, absolutely nothing oppressive about them. Unlike you, I dont view opposing views, even when they’re in powers of authority such as owners of a business that Im in or Police Men and Women as oppressive. And I try to extend that respect to political personnel as well (when its deserved), but idiots leading idiot parties (such as Pelosi) make it difficult and do not bind my thoughts and views nor expressions….therefore no oppression buddy 😉
April 18th, 2018 at 8:02 pm
I don’t think viewpoints can even be oppressive. But policies can. FWIW I never go to starbucks so I could care less, just messing with you after reading about your protesting of their their lib agenda.
I am also overwhelmed with that respect you’re extending to the “idiot parties” you disagree with…
April 18th, 2018 at 8:19 pm
Yeah I dont go either….we have a mom and pop place here (25 years or so) called “coffee underground”…thats my go to when out. But I wont lie, when starbucks large bag of “breakfast blend” is on sale at publix, i’ll snatch it up 😀
April 18th, 2018 at 10:02 pm
I believe it was Ira who said something along lines of “ Every year a great pass rusher comes out of nowhere.” Started to do some searching. Wake Forrest = Nowhere??