Screw Checkdowns!
February 16th, 2018
Hates punts.
The thing that used to drive Joe wild when Mike Glennon was a rookie starter was when, say, it was third-and-eight, Glennon had a habit of throwing to receivers five yards short of the chains.
What the hell was the point? Joe damned near had to be tied down watching that s(p)it. Drove Joe bananas.
Now it might be a bit unfair to single out a rookie like that. Then-Bucs offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan should have shouldered a lot of the blame. Why the hell was he calling a play for that called for receiver running routes short of the sticks?
Well, it seems Sullivan might have had an issue working with America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston. Per the research of Scott Kacsmar of FootballOutsiders.com, no quarterback in the NFL threw short of the chains less than Jameis did.
Kacsmar has a nonsense name for this called “failed completions,” which is BS. A completion is not a failure. A better name for this would be “failed conversion.”
And how does Kacsmar define this? It “includes any completed pass that fails to gain 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down.”
For one pass Kacsmar charted, Jameis met this criteria 17.7 of the time, lowest in the NFL.
This, is Joe’s eyes, is a combination of Bucs coach Dirk Koetter’s version of throwing downfield and Jameis’ go-for-broke, Brett Favre mentality.
February 16th, 2018 at 12:05 am
If only we all didn’t fall for the DM thing. Things could of been better. Even more impressive
February 16th, 2018 at 12:11 am
Lamarcus – You mean if Dirk wasn’t so overwhelmed being head coach and OC and wasn’t so incredibly predictable things could have been better.
February 16th, 2018 at 12:17 am
I said that Dirk Koetter love for the deep ball would be the Bucs offense downfall.
February 16th, 2018 at 12:22 am
What’s wrong with wearing a defense down with short passes and runs? Rest your defense while you wear down the opposing defense. This makes a huge difference in the Florida heat.
February 16th, 2018 at 12:24 am
Sounds like jw3 doesn’t know how to checkdown at times. News flash joe THAT’S A BAD THING ! Gotta know how to /be willing to make ALL throws. THAT’S WHY HE HAS SO MANY F***** PICKS! Learn to take what’s there sometimes
February 16th, 2018 at 12:39 am
Dirk Koetter never had any intentions of running the ball. His intentions were a wide open offense. They didn’t pay DeSean Jackson, draft OJ Howard, Chris Godwin to have a ball-control offense. They brought those guys in to open up the pass offense. They neglected the run game because they never had any intentions of running the ball. They never had any intentions of throwing the ball to their RBs.
February 16th, 2018 at 12:59 am
I disagree that Koetter neglected the run game. It’s more like the run game neglected him. Simply put, running the ball consistently failed to produce the last two seasons which forced more passing from a lack of confidence. Don’t dismiss the 2015 season as a benchmark of what this offense can achieve with a solid running game.
Give Koetter a strong running game, couple that with continued growth from Jameis, and he will succeed offensively.
February 16th, 2018 at 1:29 am
Lakeland,
The Bucs ran the ball 40% of time. The fact that they were terrible it’s not like the prudent thing to have done would have been to run it more. Especially, when you consider how often and quickly they were playing from behind.
If you think those two facts didn’t effect the ability to call more run plays then there’s nothing more to add.
February 16th, 2018 at 2:04 am
Man. They keep stats for every thing you can imagine. Only stats I care about at this time are wins/losses.
February 16th, 2018 at 2:09 am
Duke
My point is that the Bucs made no effort during the offseason to improve the run game. they averaged 3.6 YPC last season. They stunk last season running the ball, yet they came back this season with the same RBs. They didn’t improve the O-Line. They had no intentions of improving the run game, because they had no intentions of running the ball.
February 16th, 2018 at 2:17 am
They had 9 months to get the run game together. They had 9 months to get the pass rush together. Maybe I’m missing something, but I believe they didn’t try to improve either. How many pass rushers did they sign in free agency? How many O-Linemen did they sign in free agency? How many RBs did they sigh in free agency? How many O-Linemen did they draft? How many D-Linemen did they draft? How many RBs did they draft?
Round 5. RB Jeremy McNichols
Round 7 DT Stevie T
That’s what they did in 9 months
No excuses
February 16th, 2018 at 2:25 am
There is no excuse for Complacency
February 16th, 2018 at 3:08 am
I see this a lot
If the Eagles can do it, why not the Bucs?
I’m going to show why the Bucs didn’t improve like the Eagles
The Eagles knew they had a young QB and he needed help
They knew they needed help on defense
Free Agency and Trades
WR Alshon Jeffrey
WR Torrey Smith
RB LeGarrette Blount
DE Chris Long
DT Timmy Jernigan
RB Jay Ajayi
QB Nick Foles
CB Patrick Robinson
CB Ron Darby
OG Chance Womack
Eagles Draft
1.DE Derek Barnett
2.CB Sidney Jones
3.CB Rasul Butler
4.WR Mack Hollins
4.RB Donnel Pumphrey
5.WR Shelton Gibson
5.LB Nathan Gerry
6.DT Elijah Qualls
Tampa Bay Bucs 2017 Salary Cap Space
$66.7 Million
Philadelphia Eagles 2017 Salary Cap Space
$12.3 Million
The Eagles had to cut some useless vets to create cap space
The Bucs held on tto their useless vets
No excuses
February 16th, 2018 at 3:46 am
And those 10 players the Eagles signed in free agency or traded for,their combine 2017 salary is less than $45 million.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:00 am
LeGarrette Blount $1,250,000
Jay Ajayi $325,588
Ron Darby $800,426
Patrick Robinson $775,000
Chris Long $2,250,000
Combine Salary $5,401,014
Doug Martin 2017 salary
$5,764,705
February 16th, 2018 at 4:21 am
I’m with Joe for a change. Several people misunderstood the stat. Throwing a check down that gains a few yards, but fails to get a first down doesn’t wear defenses down. It gets them off the field while Glennon’s punter comes out. Defenses in the NFL have gotten really good at conceding throws underneath and short of the sticks, then rallying to tackle short of the line to gain. Jameis hates to concede. You can look at his body language when we run a screen for 12 yards on third and 16. He hates it.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:03 am
Lakeland,
Ok, I see where you’re coming from, and I agree to a point. The fact is The long term trend for the team is place 100% faith in a player who has been injured, suspended etc etc Actually, relying on a proven unreliable player. Sweezy, VJackson, Martin, Spence, with zero plan B .
I don’t believe that it’s they never intended to run the ball effectively, which is far better than the alternative. They’re incompetent.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:11 am
The stat I’m talking about is the IAY ( Intended Air Yardage). Look at who’s at the top in 2016 and 2017. My complaint is based on these facts.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2017/all
February 16th, 2018 at 5:20 am
Ok, I looked at the numbers. But I don’t think I’m seeing how the data supports your perspective. I know you think it’s clear, but I am still fuzzy on how it works as the factual basis.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:25 am
It shows the averaged intended air yardage. You see checkdown Mike Glennon at the bottom at 6.6. You see Drew Brees who now throws to his RBs a lot at 7.1. And you see Jameis Winston at 10.7. Only DeShaun Watson and Drew Stanton is above him,
February 16th, 2018 at 5:28 am
So Jameis Winston pass plays are 3.6 yards further than Drew Brees.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:38 am
Ok, I’m with you. Here’s the part I’m missing something. How is the first part connected with the rest.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:52 am
Drew Brees has thrown more to His RB’s which effectively lowers his avg iya. But He still throws a lot of deeper routes.
You saying JW needs to throw to his backs more often?
February 16th, 2018 at 5:55 am
The Bucs failure to get a decent run game during the offseason is what destroyed this offense. It made them one dimensional, less of a threat. It put them in a position, where defenses knew what they would do. I could see if they added pieces and they didn’t work out. But the Bucs made no effort at all. And it put them in a lot of 3rd and long situations. It put a lot of pressure on Jameis Winston to force the ball downfield. With a strong run game, you see a lot of 3rd and short. You see a lot of 2nd and short, you can be more creative. You can wear down a defense, while your defense rest. That can help a defense a lot in the Florida heat. You can keep a defense guessing. You can hit your RBs with short passes on 1st down. Passes that they can take for long gains. This is what I’m saying. A strong run game will also benefit the defense. Less time they will be on the field. You can control the clock. There’s so much you can do with a strong run game.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:04 am
Duke
That’s exactly what I’m saying. Jameis Winston need to get the ball to his RBs.
Christian McCaffrey was target 113 times and he caught 80 passes for a 70.8% catch ratio. Alvin Kamara was target 100 times and he caught 81 passes for a 81% catch ratio.
And those are rookies
I’m not talking about checkdowns, I’m talking about utilizing your weapons. Mixing up the plays, keep the defense guessing.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:24 am
Bringing in as many bridge players as we have on defense has hurt the team.
Licht needs to get younger players on the team at more positions than linebacker.
Nobody with a big upside is waiting in the wings to replace Macdonald,Ayers,or Grimes or McCoy. .Ayers and MacDonald have missed multiple games for several years. Grimes was hurt last year and did not play at 100 % in some games. . No question he is an athletic freak, but with the number of injuries we had there needs to be a backup plan to replace an interior D lineman,a DE or a corner that gets injured.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:33 am
Charles Sims had 21 carries and 47 targets in 2017. So when defenses see him in the game. They know what to expect. Doug Martin had 138 carries and 18 targets. When defenses see him in the game. They know what to expect.
But in 2015 it was different
Charles Sims had 107 carries and 70 targets in 2015. When he was in the game, defenses didn’t know what to expect. Doug Martin had 288 carries and 48 targets in 2015. When he was in the game, defenses didn’t know what to expect.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:35 am
Bob
That’s true,a team need depth at every position.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:39 am
I’m about to get off work. I will be back later today.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:47 am
I agree with Lakeland last point on getting the ball to RB’s more. Never understood why Sims was thrown so many screen passes .to the flat on third down. Mix it up, I believe Sims should have been thrown more passes over the middle like the ones thrown to martin when he was playing well in 2015. Don’t
just throw the screen on 3rd and 14 ,when Sims is in the game. That’s telegraphing the play IMO.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:55 am
@Lakeland
We seem to be thinking along the same lines,but i didn’t realize we only had half the screens in 2017 as 2015. .
February 16th, 2018 at 8:08 am
I can’t even guess the number of times I saw open checkdowns overlooked for an incompletion down the field in the last two years.
I’m sure everything will get better this year. Older, wiser, all that?
February 16th, 2018 at 8:20 am
“The thing that used to drive Joe wild when Mike Glennon was a rookie starter was when, say, it was third-and-eight, Glennon had a habit of throwing to receivers five yards short of the chains.” – J0E
Amen to that! I’m right there with yea. I can understand a yard short…heck a player can fall forward most of the time and convert. But the issue was the same when Dungy and Gruden (though less with him) were the head coach. Drove me batty.
I think Jameis needs to start throwing some fast, short passes, but not so short its impossible to convert.
February 16th, 2018 at 8:42 am
I checked down once ….and my fly was open!
February 16th, 2018 at 9:02 am
@BuccaneerBill
Second day in a row where you posted logic and facts. Better be careful on this blog. LOL
Doug Martin fumbled once…Payton Barber fumbled twice…but Barber did not fumble at all in 2016. But if you look at his career…with the exception of one year when he fumbled four times Doug Martin simply excellent at ball security.
I do not use this to “justify” Koetter’s mistake with sticking with Martin…but simply to “explain” it. Conservative football coaches HATE a player who puts the ball on the ground. I think that sample is too small to call Barber a fumbler…but it could perhaps at least explain what messed up Koetter’s mind.
As for the OL…they obviously counted on Sweezy before he was ready.(if his back ever really heals) I thought Marpet was fine but he was clearly still learning his position. Smith is sometimes excellent…most always good..but he seems to occasionally lose focus. If he became more consistent he’d be fine at LT…and Dot is fine..when he’s healthy. It’s not like they didn’t have a solid reason to believe in our OL at the start of the season. It does not need an overhaul but it does need another impact player…can you say Nelson?
I fault Licht and Koetter in only one area of this team…the pass rush. They had all their eggs in one basket with a player who already had a history a bum shoulder…and they even mentioned Jack Smith who flashed talent when he played but he can’t get on the field because injury.
If you want to be charitable….bwaaahaaaahhaaaa…charitable Buc’s fan is an oxymoron…you could say the team simply had too many needs when Licht took over. He spent a #1 pick on a franchise QB. That’s a lot of capital but it’s what is required for a player of Jameis caliber. Still given the chatter about #3 and MM how many draft picks did that represent? I’m on board with the Jameis pick just pointing out if you want a franchise QB you gotta pay and so we did.
Licht had already spent a first rounder on a WR who was the only target we had!!!! Too many Vero Beach lounge singers as Joe used to say. So Licht scores a coup with two UFDA’s Hump and Brate to plug the gap and then used a 3rd rounder on a future star in Godwin. He spent FA money on DJAX and we went from one receiver to one of the best groups in the league.
He drafted two OL high in the draft to protect his franchise QB investment.
And so he clearly built the offense before the defense. We only have so many draft picks a year. Too bad our NFL scouting department is awful…or the Glazers won’t open their pocket books but our FA’s are where the major failures have come.
Bottom line…we have no pass rush which exposes even minor weaknesses in a defensive backfield and also strains our LB corps.
We are NOT that far away…IF #3’s arm is fine and he isn’t suspended.
We can draft Nelson and the OL is basically ready to go.
We sign two FA CB’s…hopefully Grimes and one of the other elite players.
Then we go nucking futs on the DL…I wouldn’t be upset if we went OG…if Nelson is the one who drops…right now he’s slated to go fifth on Walter.
Then it’s all DE’s and a DT or two. I believe Barber is a competent RB and that Sims is an excellent 3rd down back…Quizz is an adequate backup…hopefully we can add one more talent to that mix.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:14 am
Need to get squint eyes some lasik.
February 16th, 2018 at 11:44 am
Bucs offense last month of the year was imaginative and balanced. We need to sustain that formula. Upgrade key positions to make it sustainable thru injuries, bad luck, good teams, whatever. IMO we need to focus mental energy on the defense so we can get stops when we absolutely need them.
February 16th, 2018 at 2:44 pm
@ St. pete
You have hit on the only plausible explanation for Koetter’s blind devotion to
Martin . Sims has also put the ball on the ground at an inopportune times.
I was looking in up not long ago and Jaquis Rogers had only 2 fumbles
in his career. Martin had 8 ,with four in one year.
February 18th, 2018 at 12:48 pm
Koetter does not seem interested in wearing Defenses down guys. Often times our offense is 3 and out because we are always going for the home run balls. I don’t see a lot of quick hitters across the middle, screens or fast 5 to 10 yrd routes. Give our D some sideline time. Who did Koetter do his NFl understudy with? OHhh I know..Mike Smith. Nuff said.