Moving The Chains With The Best
December 28th, 2017
Dirk Koetter’s offense moves the football extremely well.
New data released by the ESPN data geeks backs it up.
And there are even more powerful numbers to share.
Check out the ESPN chart below. The Bucs are the sixth best team in the NFL at avoiding 3-and-outs. The top-1o list is a rather impressive collection of playoff teams.
Joe will add that the Bucs are fourth in the NFL in total first downs this season, second in the NFC behind the Eagles. Overall, the Bucs offense is ranked 11th in the NFL in total yards.
So what does this reveal? The Bucs offense, guided by Jameis Winston and Dirk Koetter, is not a finisher. Relatively speaking, Tampa Bay goes limp in the red zone, or when it gets close. Yes, the playcaller and the QB get the lion’s share of the blame, though there are many other factors.
Man, a true No. 1 running back would mean the freakin’ world to this offense. It was the same song a year ago.
December 28th, 2017 at 1:29 pm
It also means they don’t get many chunk plays and it takes forever to get down the field but yep you guys need to get on board with the play calling complaint unless you think our running backs And cam brate are better redzone options than Howard or Mike Evans
December 28th, 2017 at 1:32 pm
Lots of factors associated with the numbers. However I have to agree a more effective run game is a key factor to scoring and winning. It gives you more options and applies more pressure on the defense. Go Bucs!
December 28th, 2017 at 1:33 pm
Penalties and fumbles kill Bucs in the RZ
December 28th, 2017 at 1:43 pm
Add to this that according to the same source Jameis is the 6th best red one QB in the league.
December 28th, 2017 at 1:44 pm
Red zone penalties have cost games this year.
December 28th, 2017 at 1:47 pm
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”–Mark Twain
December 28th, 2017 at 1:47 pm
and a few Red Zone turn overs following long drives to get there….
December 28th, 2017 at 1:52 pm
I thought the “great” Jason Licht had solved the RB problem.
December 28th, 2017 at 1:56 pm
Turnovers, especially in the red zone have absolutely killed this team. We are our own worst enemy.
December 28th, 2017 at 1:58 pm
It’s coaching, not necessarily play calling though. Teams don’t have across the board issues repeatedly (this is not a case of one or two guys consistently messing up or the oline constantly drawing a holding penalty) unless it’s a coaching problem.
The team tightens up in the red zone, because that’s what the coach does. If Koetter would call plays expecting that they would get him 6 points, the team would execute expecting to score 6 points. Instead we see toss sweeps “hoping” to catch the other team off guard or plays that are an all or nothing to one target with the idea if the play isn’t there to throw the ball away and we can still get the FG.
The Scuttlebucs guys talk about this all the time, Koetter coaches scared; he doesn’t coach to win, he coaches not to lose. I wish he could have figured this out this year, but he hasn’t, and I believe that’s why the Bucs fail in the red zone and why Koetter will be shown the door in just under 4 days.
December 28th, 2017 at 1:59 pm
Carolina is 4th in rushing and QB Cam Newton is their leading rusher. Carolina is 27th in passing. Tampa Bay is 4th in passing and 27th in rushing, the opposite of Carolina. Tampa Bay is 4-11 and Carolina is 11-4.
Interesting stats
December 28th, 2017 at 2:02 pm
Does not matter what the offebse does when captain blowout cancer93 soft defense with no heart cant hold a lead….
Losing culture led by the crying clown is real… bucs will never win a meaningful game with such a soft captain on defense… 8 years of smiles and failures… its a buc life
December 28th, 2017 at 2:02 pm
Idc. U need a run game and a decent defense equals super bowl forumla
December 28th, 2017 at 2:07 pm
People really need to consider those stats. Without a premier RB, and an inferior O-line this team consistently moves the ball up and down the field.
While they could be better finishers in the red zone, the lack of a legitimate threat at RB combined with costly penalties and turnovers is a big part of the problem. The defense is the problem. Part of that is obviously scheme, however, the front offense neglected that side of the ball for a long time. I for one saw that coming last year and thought they just played over the head, and that is something that isn’t sustainable. Before everyone runs off Dirk they need to consider what this offense has done this year. Especially considering JW started off sluggish, got injured and played injured for a decent part of the season. He may deserve one more season to see what he can do.
December 28th, 2017 at 2:10 pm
fresh’n up tmax…
December 28th, 2017 at 2:13 pm
The 2014 Atlanta Falcons were 5th in passing. They were 24th in rushing and they went 6-10. Arthur Blank fired Mike Smith and his staff after the season. Dirk Koetter was the OC at the time.
December 28th, 2017 at 2:16 pm
Lake…and yesterday I hit every red light going to work….today only 2….this is not logic…it is primitive earth is flat thinking
December 28th, 2017 at 2:22 pm
If we had the #1 offense, it wouldn’t mean squat if we can’t stop anybody…that d-line is a disaster sans 93
December 28th, 2017 at 2:24 pm
Tmax day after day after day it’s the same thing with you. The ‘93’ hate is old. He not going anywhere, put him up there with ‘55’ ‘20’ & ‘40’ “BUCS 4LIFE” Come on man
December 28th, 2017 at 2:29 pm
Pan…yep….which is why I hope a whole bunch of desperate teams want out draft slot….every year some team at the top of the draft is paid a kings ransom for a slot….admitting you have a talent problem is the first step in recovery….swap picks in the first round for 2’s and 3’s
December 28th, 2017 at 2:34 pm
AlteredEgo
The New Orleans Saints are 5th in passing and 5th in rushing. The past three seasons they were always one dimensional. You need balance, you need a COMPLETE team.
#WeaponsForWinston#
December 28th, 2017 at 2:42 pm
only least unbiased stats that leads teams to superbowls no matter what other factors contribute is scoring offense and scoring defense
PERIOD….any other stat covers up deficiencies like lipstick on a pig
December 28th, 2017 at 2:43 pm
lake I agree….the GM has focused on offensive weapons and we need heavy 4×4 trunks now on both sides of the ball as well as DB help…out of balance …painful to watch the pass rush and the D getting off the field
December 28th, 2017 at 2:47 pm
I’m guessing Dirk leads the NFL in punting from the other teams 40, any stats on that?
December 28th, 2017 at 2:58 pm
Yep, we are magic between the 20s! Once we get in the Red Zone though, it unravels fast. I keep watching trying to figure out what the problem is. Ok, play calling has a good chunk of it. Last game for instance, Barber on a sweep inside the 10 when we haven’t executed a decent sweep all season, let alone with a downhill runner like Barber. The penalties? Could be. We took a delay of game inside the 20 last week (the dumbest penalty you can get in the NFL, it’s totally controllable) that was after we took a 15 yard sack. What is the fix? Denver had the same issues the year before Manning came in when Foz was coaching. Kyle Orton was money between the 20s and then crapped out in the Red Zone. The fix? Peyton Manning and a different coach with a better gameplan. that might fix it.
December 28th, 2017 at 2:58 pm
Move those chains, Move those chains, Move those chains. Wooooooo
Unless your seats are near section 312, this comment will make no sense!!
December 28th, 2017 at 3:14 pm
Good observation Lakeland
December 28th, 2017 at 3:15 pm
been evident since preseason they can move the chains, especially with the intermediate passing game. unfortunately the run game has been stuck in the mud and the offensive playcaller favors lower percentage deep throws that expose his QB to physical and reputational damage, but are often necessary due to the deep hole the defense puts the team in.
December 28th, 2017 at 3:19 pm
In most games the team that falls behind will eat up a bunch of yardage and move the chains.
Not to belittle the stat, but it doesn’t mean a thing if you don’t convert to touchdowns and victories.
Its fairly hard to find an NFL team that isn’t good in some statistical category. 76 bucs maybe.
I doubt the Glazer’s are impressed.
December 28th, 2017 at 4:16 pm
RED ZONE!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
December 28th, 2017 at 4:20 pm
ALTER
@Lakeland makes perfect sense….how many times has dirk abandoned the run when we’re down 10-7 early in the game?…..countless!!!!!…..that sums up everything…..
Lakeland Says:
December 28th, 2017 at 2:13 pm
The 2014 Atlanta Falcons were 5th in passing. They were 24th in rushing and they went 6-10. Arthur Blank fired Mike Smith and his staff after the season. Dirk Koetter was the OC at the time.
^^BINGO^^
GO BUCS!!!!
December 28th, 2017 at 4:40 pm
Man just imagine what Chucky could do with this talent
December 28th, 2017 at 4:58 pm
T in Orlando’s comment hit me like a brick.
We have problems across the board.
This is just poor coaching guys. We are bad at everything(including ST) except passing. Sure, we need better players on defense but why can’t our LB core make a difference in run stop? Are we really that talentless that we have to be fundamentally bad at every aspect of defense…….This is a joke. We can’t even tackle. That’s something that can be coached and was coached years ago when we had a great tackling team.
You know what else can be coached? Getting one yard on 3rd and 1 when you need it………..Something we haven’t been able to do for ages.
You want red zone scores? Why can’t Winston run one in once in a while……Been a lot of speculation Winston is being coached not to run.
Remember getting the ball with over a minute to play on Monday Night? We only run three plays(spikes excluded)…….Our one minute offense couldn’t even give us a look at the end Zone? I mean WTF? Three friggen plays that were successful and all we get is a 57 yard FG try?? You can’t convince me that this team had practiced and was prepared to run a one minute offense……….Just poorly coached and poorly prepared.
Letting the Panthers destroy you in your own house with their passrush and in the second meeting they get to you for six sacks and countless pressures,hit, hurries? Effing poorly coached and poorly prepared…….Give me a friggen break with this unprepared team already……..Just look at Winston’s highlight reel, most of his better plays come off of fire drill type plays, not by design.
We should need Doug MARtin to break team rules in order to get our best rusher onto the field and we should need multiple injuries on th Oline to understand how to get personnel on the field that can open up rushing lanes.
Dirks team looks like they are playing backyard football against professionals and it’s why we can’t even compete in divisional games, let alone against any good team. As a Buccaneer fan I have seen 4-12 talent and this ain’t it. This is 4-12 coaching……..****END RANT
December 28th, 2017 at 5:12 pm
^ 4-12 coaching, not 4-12 talent is WHY Licht’s contract was extended and Dirk may be fired and replaced by Gruden … this isn’t rocket science.
December 28th, 2017 at 5:15 pm
I’m tired of hearing people say Dirk’s offense is predictable. Just about every offense in the league has a pretty predictable ratio of runs to pass….and dirk throws a hell of a lot more than love, schiano, morris….Dirks a good play caller.
I had a feeling in the offseason that Djax wouldn’t produce that well, and last week when he left the game it seemed like Godwin really clicks along with everyone else.
Bottom line is if Jameis does bad the offense does bad, when he’s good, it’s good.
One thing we can all count on every week is the defense letting the entire team down.
December 28th, 2017 at 5:29 pm
The Bucs talent is no where near the Falcons,Panthers, Saints. If someone think they are, they need their head examine. Those are the 3 teams that will keep the Bucs in the NFC South basement.
December 28th, 2017 at 5:42 pm
Can’t wait to flush this season and start fighting over draft picks and strategy in the off season….. there is never an off season for losers
December 28th, 2017 at 5:53 pm
BucEmUp – Predictable doesn’t mean just knowing when someone is going to rush/pass, it includes knowing what direction and failing to adjust to defenses. Last year for example on every single first down for the first half of a game, or going well into the third quarter if the Bucs were in the lead, Dirk almost always ran straight up the middle. The defense could put all 11 run blitzing up the middle and Dirk would run it straight up the middle and then Joe would be shocked that Martin had a bad YPA since he couldn’t break 9 tackles just to get back to the LOS. This year Dirk did that earlier before completely abandoning the running game – and this year his big tell is on every 3rd down it’s an empty set shotgun where Sims is the #1 receiver. I’ve watched games with GF and paused before the play and predicted run/pass and where the ball was going and I’ve been right about 99% of the time. If I can do that, defensive coordinators can do that. In year one, when Dirk was just the OC, the Bucs were not nearly as predictable and the playbook seemed more varied even though he had a rookie QB. Since Dirk became head coach it’s clear he doesn’t put nearly as much time into the offense and it shows from the lack of variety in play calling and the lack of adjustments. Winston bails out the awful play calling in a lot of cases by moving around in the pocket and making guys miss and keeping plays alive until the last second – but with no offensive line, no running game and a coach who is super predictable it’s no wonder the offense doesn’t put up the points it should.
December 28th, 2017 at 6:33 pm
No lead is safe with tutti frutti rainbow sprinkles McIceCream lead the defense. None! Not one! Not even a 24-0 lead.
Zip zippo zilch
Get rid of mcsoftserve and wins will roll in.
December 28th, 2017 at 6:33 pm
If it were only just one or two things that needed to be fixed that would be a different story. Unfortunately it is a combination of so many things! Let’s start with undisciplined. How many times have penalties taken us out of the red zone or completely out of field goal range? How many defensive & offensive pass interference penalties have either let other teams score or kept us from scoring? Immaturity: How many on field fights, suspensions, breakdowns, crap talking to your own teammates, crying for god sake, and throwing countless sideline rants about anything and everything. Underachieving: To much talent on offense to ignore this fact. Three very good receivers two very good TE’s, a good QB. The rest of the O is average but this is better than most teams.
December 28th, 2017 at 6:47 pm
Oh there is more: Winstons should be further along not in stats but in timing, rhythm, footwork, and most of all pocket presence. That time clock in your head going off means run for the first down or dump it off! Not stand there thinking about it only to be stripped of the ball. His natural talent keeps us in games but costly mistakes that should be past already are keeping us from winning. Lines: The DLine might be lacking in talent but the O line should be above average. This is all coaching! I have seen games where these guys play extremely well. Other times mental mistakes and confusion in schemes costs points and momentum.
December 28th, 2017 at 7:12 pm
All good points Bucnjim. I especially agree with you about the Oline. Dirk inherited a young line that featured a couple of rookies that were coming off of very good seasons for first year players. With young players at those positions they almost always show improvement from year to year.
Dirk is here for this side of the ball and he seems to be mismanaging his lineman. Our guard play has been awful this year because he mismanaged Marpet….Pamphile looks just awful and has regressed. I think they moved his primary side which is a likely reason.
I look at a guy like Sweezy and think somebody somewhere could get more production from him. I think if we keep Dirk they may let Sweezy go which will be yet another misevaluation. Our depth at the tackle position has been exposed in two straight years too.
It has just been poor decision making all the way through with Dirk. Either that or Licht is just in over his head. Something in our front office needs to change if this team want to get serious about contending.
December 28th, 2017 at 7:51 pm
JJ O wonder who pulled the trigger on moving Marpet to center.. GM or HC ….
December 28th, 2017 at 7:57 pm
All the more reason to keep Koetter and draft a stud RB, which this class is loaded with. I will be on the DE Chubb bandwagon until the draft but our 2nd or 3rd pick must be a RB.
December 28th, 2017 at 7:58 pm
Winston has very good pocket presence, it’s the reason he isn’t sacked like 20 times a game. Dirk runs a deep ball offense and you say dump off the ball – look at the tape, who is he dumping it to? If Dirk and everyone in the media is going to yell that you can’t force the ball because they’re worried about INTs, and you have no running game or offensive line, and you run a deep ball offense that requires you to hold onto the ball, and Dirk doesn’t roll out the QB, he keeps him in the pocket, what exactly is Jameis supposed to do there? Last week he had one legit fumble, one snap issue and a BS call that said he fumbled yet he came up from the pile with the ball. There’s no issue with pocket presence – look at the Humphries throw where he alone gained himself the time to get the ball to Hump, but broke the golden rule of the INT queens in that he threw up a 50/50 ball. Winston has been playing year round football for 2 years now and he can get better with ball security, just like he can get better at everything, but he has no issues with pocket presence. Someone who had an issue with that was Rob Johnson when Gruden wanted to make him the starting QB over Brad Johnson, that guy would sit holding the ball forever and no sense of pressure – that’s nothing like Winston.
December 28th, 2017 at 8:20 pm
Agree with everything other than the Koetter deep design… every pass plays have multiple options allowing love and fight another down
December 28th, 2017 at 8:33 pm
Red zone issues = McCoy is the problem? DB 55 and tmax you are both morons with zero (no) credibility. Happy New Year. Go Bucs!
December 28th, 2017 at 8:34 pm
Checking out the replay Godwin may be the most under rated player on this entire team…great draft pick! Unfortunately the mistakes are already jarring my memory of the game and why we lost.
December 28th, 2017 at 9:46 pm
Reach87
Just proves you don’t watch film. I have ever game since week 12 of 2016 recorded and available for breakdown. Come at me dawg which game you wanna watch son?
December 29th, 2017 at 1:39 am
AlteredEgo – Yes, every play has multiple options, however Dirk’s offense gives less options than most offenses have underneath. If your top guy is Evans and he’s deep, and Jackson is deep and your TE is Brate, who can catch everything but isn’t ever really “open” on any play, and your next option is Hump who can’t get open versus man, and maybe your RB runs into the flat – or more likely is staying into block – that’s just what the Bucs do on offense – the idea is to take deep shots. Go back to the Patriots game and in the pregame Romo is talking about Dirk’s offense and he calls it a 1980s offense, which is the Bucs mostly run. In 2015 it worked out great, we had a fantastic running game and the offensive line played way over its head, but again Dirk became HC in 2016 and it’s obvious he just isn’t doing as much on offense as in the past and it shows everywhere, it’s why I never wanted him hired as HC, at least not until Winston and the offense had a few years with him under their belt. It’s a shame since if Dirk had just been left to be the OC I think the Bucs would be doing dramatically better and Winston would be even further along in his development, but not having a real dedicated OC is hurting every aspect of the team.