Mike Evans, Targets And The Bucs
June 8th, 2017
Will Mike Evans still be the favorite target of America?
(Photo courtesy of Buccaneers.com.)
Time for Joe to rub the dust off of his crystal ball.
No, Joe’s not going to make predictions for the 2017 season, just trying to take a peek through the window of the future.
Yesterday, Joe brought word from good guy Alex Marvez of SiriusXM NFL Radio fame who noted Mike Evans led the NFL in targets last year. Marvez noted that was “too much.” He’s right.
It also showed how just about every defensive coordinator knew America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, was going to get Evans the ball, and still defenses struggled defending Evans.
One could reason Evans’ targets might well be cut in half this year.
Last year, outside of Evans and Cam Brate, the Bucs largely had wannabes and castoffs as receivers for Jameis, which is why Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht beefed up the receiving corps big time this offseason.
Joe looked at BSPN’s list of targets and that list had Evans with 175 targets. Just giving the list a quick glance, Denver had Demaryius Thomas with 145 (tied for 10th) and Emmanuel Sanders with 139 (13th) targets.
If DeSean Jackson really is going to take heat off Evans as much as the Bucs think he will, would it be reasonable to believe Evans might see 50 less balls thrown his way? Or, with Jackson (and others) taking heat off Evans, will Evans he be open so often that his targets won’t recede much at all?
Just for a point of reference, Pierre Garçon, who played opposite Jackson with the Redskins last year, was targeted 116 times, 32nd in the NFL.
June 8th, 2017 at 5:44 am
I hope you guys are praying for/sending love to our boy Cecil Shorts.
That hit he took against San Diego was DIRTY/NASTY and EVIL.
Heal up well Cecil Shorts.
One Love.
June 8th, 2017 at 6:18 am
It’ll be interesting to see the Bucs offensive strategy unfold this year & in particular to see how they use their WRs & TEs. Although Mike Evans targets will almost surely go down like you say Joe, my guess is that his % caught will increase, as will his average per catch. Mike might get targeted only 125 times, but if his catches increase to 60% (75 catches), and his average/catch stays the same as last year (13.8 yds), he’d get his 1,035 yds this year. But if it increases to his career average of 15 yds/catch (open more?), then he’s up to 1,125 yds. I suspect ME13 would be fine with that if the Bucs make the playoffs. If they don’t, I don’t think he’d be happy with 2,000 yds.
June 8th, 2017 at 6:34 am
The playoff “norm” as Jameis puts it will start with a balanced passing attack and our defense leading the league on 3 and outs.
Expect different these are not the old Bucs!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!
June 8th, 2017 at 6:38 am
Hmmmm, I thought we talked about this???????
Oh yea, Its “The Realist Repost”!!!!!!!!!!!
The Buc Realist Says:
May 21st, 2017 at 10:30 am
You should use the “julio jones” model and see that his numbers will be sightly down. But he will no where be “gang tackled” as much so he will be healthier and have a longer career!!!!!!! If the new TE or DJ can become almost emerge as primary weapon like receiving option then maybe ME13 will be singled a little more and we will see more “YAC”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 8th, 2017 at 6:40 am
Defense, I agree. Nice analysis. The key I think will be being able to run just enough to keep the defense off balance such that they get caught in no win or high risk situations. The art of being one step ahead in playcalling such that we maintain what appears to be a strenghth, in place on the field.
June 8th, 2017 at 6:45 am
While his targets will drop, I see his yards per catch increasing. His total yards bay not take a big hit and I think he will see more quality targets this season. Also, I think his touchdowns will increase. If safety’s chose to play over the top on him djax will kill them. Roll both safeties to the outside now Brate or Howard is matched up in space versus a linebacker. Evans is going to be able to post guys up.
June 8th, 2017 at 7:37 am
While there is a time and place for squaring up and giving jameis a big target,
like third and long.I am looking for more passes thrown to receivers in stride,
to increase YAC yards and give receivers more chances to make explosive plays.Hope the changes to O line give Jameis more time to make these plays and Koetter the confidence to open up his playbook.
June 8th, 2017 at 8:45 am
why yes…yes he will be
June 8th, 2017 at 12:46 pm
Agree with most.. Less targets but more efficiency for about the same net result.
We were 16th in the NFL in total attempts. I could see that going up in a more high powered offense.
Targets last year out of 567 passes:
ME – 175
Hump – 82
Brate – 81
Running backs – 70
everyone else – 159
Kind of amazing that Winston threw almost 1/3 (28%) of his passes to guys like Martino/Shep/Dye/SHorts/etc. Imagine replacing “everyone else” with Desean Jackson / OJ Howard / Chris Godwin; and this would be my general guess of the distribution:
ME – 145
Vjax – 100
Brate – 70
Howard – 60
Hump – 60
Godwin – 60
running backs – 70
That’d be for 565 attempts. I could see us pushing closer to 600+ this year
June 8th, 2017 at 12:51 pm
If we win 11 or more games and go to the playoffs all individual stats will take a back seat.
Stats..at least individual stats are for losers….show me the W’s. Guys get more attention, more fame by playing on a SB champ than simply by putting up big numbers.
I have a feeling this team is hungry for wins and are willing to place personal goals in that context.