The Jason Licht Patterns
April 25th, 2017
Bucs GM Jason Licht
Some say general manager Jason Licht really likes to play bridge, as in sign a “bridge” free agent (aka an old dude) and draft a guy at the same position.
Licht did that twice in 2016, but one draft does not make a pattern.
What does make a pattern is doing something two drafts in a row.
For example, Licht looked for late-round speedsters at receiver/returner in 2014 and 2015. Robert Herron, Kenny Bell and Kaelin Clay didn’t work out.
Licht, in the past two drafts, also went fullback in the seventh and sixth rounds, respectively. Joey Iosefa and Danny Vitale got cut in a hurry.
But there’s another pattern Joe more worth watching. Through the past two drafts, Licht has selected a player in the second round and then traded back into the second round for another body.
In 2016 it was the notorious second-round play for Roberto Aguayo (59th overall) after drafting Noah Spence (39 overall). In 2015, it was moving up for Ali Marpet (61 overall) after scoring Donovan Smith (34 overall).
Joe strongly suspects Licht will want to move up for an additional second-round pick again this year. Joe would even bet on it.
So that scenario would leave the Bucs with three of the first 64 selections this week. Tampa Bay really should walk with a running back, a receiver and a defensive lineman from that haul, though Licht might have very, very different plans.
April 25th, 2017 at 2:13 pm
I will say Licht will only trade back into the 2nd round if he trades back in round 1. To dive deeper into that pattern of him trading back into the 2nd, he never really gave up any picks when he has done it. 2015 was a 2 for 2 swap. Last year he included an extra pick from trading back.
April 25th, 2017 at 2:15 pm
The first 3 picks will be DL , RB, and secondary … Not in this order but those positions will be picked in the first 3 rounds
April 25th, 2017 at 2:23 pm
I’ve always thought that if I were a GM, I would trade my 5th, 6th, and 7th round picks to move up to potentially all first, second, and third rounders.
Personally, I’d rather have 1-1st, 1-2nd, and 2-3rds than one of each round.
What you guys think?
April 25th, 2017 at 2:24 pm
Mike Mayock who is supposed to be an expert got 6 picks right in the last first round draft, meaning we all have no idea whats going to happen.
April 25th, 2017 at 2:27 pm
A lot easier to move back up into the 2nd when you’re picking Top 10
April 25th, 2017 at 2:28 pm
And Spandau Ballet-lovin’ ex-GM Mark Dominik was a “bridge” GM. True!
April 25th, 2017 at 2:28 pm
^
That is also a great point
April 25th, 2017 at 2:29 pm
That was intended for briandorry’s comment lol
April 25th, 2017 at 2:40 pm
I think the “trade back” pattern continues….I think we go from #19 to #23 and draft defense 1st round…then he trades up back into the second round to get cook, zay jones or ingram(ole miss TE)….we’ll see soon enough….GO BUCS!!!
April 25th, 2017 at 2:45 pm
I don’t think so unless we trade back in the 1st for more 3rds. It’ll take more than a 3rd/4th pick to jump back into the 2nd this year since we’re not picking as high; and there will be great RBs/WRs/TEs still there in round 3/4 of this draft whereas they wouldn’t be there last draft.
There is no consensus on what positions we should address – between bucs sites and fans. Definitely will make for some bickering later after we see what direction we went
April 25th, 2017 at 2:48 pm
“Tampa Bay really should walk with a running back, a receiver and a defensive lineman from that haul, though Licht might have very, very different plans.” Sure do hope that Licht’s ‘different plans’ involves drafting a potential starting safety in the Top-3 rnds.
April 25th, 2017 at 2:52 pm
Bucboi I have the same feeling but I think we get Baker in the first then trade our additional 2nd and our 3rd to move up to grab Mixon and use our next for the best WR on the board.
April 25th, 2017 at 3:03 pm
So the media circus of drafting mixon on top of Hard Knock??? Really. Look I know our guys are mature but that’s quite a bit for the 5th youngest team in the NFL. Breath, don’t hold your breath on that one bro.
April 25th, 2017 at 3:06 pm
And if Licht would stop looking in places like Wyoming Nebraska and wherever the h3ll clay came from he would be aight when selecting WRs. My suggestion try looking southward. We born and bred for certain positions.
April 25th, 2017 at 3:08 pm
Yea cause when I think stud WR prospects Travis Rudolph and Rodney Adams are who I think of….. lol
April 25th, 2017 at 3:09 pm
Round 1 Barnett from Tenessee, Rd 2 RB D Foreman from Texas Rd 3 Walker from FSU and Rd 4 best available TE Round 5 best available WR, Bucs trade for an additional 5th rounder and get a safety. No need for a 6th or 7th rounder. Stay away from Cook and other medical and character red flags. Adding a RB means Bucs can wait and see on Martin until the 4th game of the season. I would play him hard in the preseason. If he balks at the minimum contract, so long!
April 25th, 2017 at 3:16 pm
@Eric
I completely agree.
7th and 6th rounders rarely make the roster.
But I would prefer 1-1st 2-2nds and 2-3rds.
The Browns have a crazy draft this year!
Lets see how their draftees work out in 3 years.
April 25th, 2017 at 3:27 pm
I was thinking about this earlier, and I would LOVE to see us draft Curtis Samuel and then trade back up to grab Sidney Jones
April 25th, 2017 at 3:36 pm
A lot of fans will be in for a huge surprise Thursday night. I wouldn’t put anything pass Jason Licht.
April 25th, 2017 at 3:40 pm
@pel….I think that’s a realist draft and would be happy as hell….get an olineman in the 4th….
the only part I disagree with you is the 6th round pick….I would try to go after rayshawn Jenkins..safety from Miami…has decent ball skills and is great in run support….he’s pegged as being a 6th round pick…or maybe donnell pumphrey RB from san diego state….his value would be ST….let him return kicks and punts with his blazing speed…he’s also projected as a 6th round pick…..I wouldn’t touch cook with a 10ft pole….GO BUCS!!!!
April 25th, 2017 at 3:44 pm
Hey Joe they tried to hide Vitale on the practice squad. Somewhat to do with problems on other parts of the roster. Cleveland snapped him up quickly.
From what I hear they have high hopes for him. He might not be a buc but our GM still picked a roster capable player.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:01 pm
Why was my comment deleted?
April 25th, 2017 at 4:02 pm
Garion Conely was accused of rape (probably false) and he may fall down the board to the bucs at 19
April 25th, 2017 at 4:03 pm
Stop deleting my comments JOE
April 25th, 2017 at 4:13 pm
I had one deleted also.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:16 pm
PFT just did their one and only mock draft and Dalvin Cook was listed at 19. I sort of respect analyst who only do one Mock per year and wait till 2 days before the draft to do it. I personally would go Best Available Edge Rusher, but I could live with Cook if Licht and Koetter go in that direction. I’m from the old school “Defense wins Championships.” For all you FSU fans out there I have my fingers crossed.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:18 pm
Anyone think CB Gareon Conley could be a consideration if he falls to the 7th round due to the rape allegation? I don’t think he will be charged based on what I read. Could be a steal in the 7th. Not like 7th round picks usually make a difference anyway.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:18 pm
I think we could move back a few and maybe pick up a third rounder….but don’t see much more than that. But I don’t think Licht is going to only do it if he has three or four guys he would still be happy with if he moved down two or three picks.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:19 pm
Anyone think CB Gareon Conley could be a consideration if he falls to the 7th round due to the allegation?
April 25th, 2017 at 4:20 pm
In a draft like this one I’d say who is counting on picks from round 5 6 and 7. Score as many high picks as you can if you think this team is really as close to going deep into the playoffs as they wasn’t is to believe.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:25 pm
My exact comment about Conely (I just used the R word) smh the trigger words are childish
April 25th, 2017 at 4:26 pm
Won’t fall to the 7th
Maybe the 3rd. The NFL knows what’s up
#stayWOKE
April 25th, 2017 at 4:39 pm
I think he will move down to an early 2nd round pick. DE and WR in the 2nd.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:42 pm
If licht’s Fs this draft up, I’m joining the Dallasbuc mob.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:45 pm
I’d like to see Obi Melifonwu in a Bucs uni. Trade down from 19 and nab him. Could be how we get our second 2nd rd pick
April 25th, 2017 at 4:53 pm
Obi is a terrible pick. Work out warrior. Think Jamarcus Russell type bust. Was a nobody until he blew up the combine. Tape tells the tale
April 25th, 2017 at 4:58 pm
Just read the entire SI article on Dalvin Cook and his issues going back to his early teen years. Good lord people, he didn’t exactly just steal a Milky Way bar from a grocery store cause he was hungry. This guy is just trouble. And what he did to those poor puppies?
If he becomes a Buc, he will be the only player I will never root for.
And staying on topic. Hope Jason picks us up a extra pic or two. No need to draft at 19.
April 25th, 2017 at 4:58 pm
The only thing that will make me mad about this draft pretty much would be trading up and giving up a mid round pick. I want ALL those picks used. I want 4 potential impact players not 2. We have too many needs to just pigeon hole ourselves into 2 players in a deep draft. If we nail this thing we could add 4-6 core players at positions of need. I don’t see some big dropoff between the end of round 2 and the middle of round 3 really in terms of overall talent; although certain positions may go thin there
Obvious Needs:
RB workhorse – can get for sure as late as round 3 ; and possibly round 4
WR depth – easily can get a contributor and potential #2 through round 4 – and some exciting guys possibly in Day 3 (Shelton Gibson maybe)
TE – can get great prospects through round 4 and maybe later
S – would have to go round 2/3 to get a real starter probably
CB – can probably get developmental guys through round 5 in this class but elite starters are all stacked in top 2 rounds pretty much
DE – elite talents deep in r1/r2, and developmental options in the mid rounds
DT – not a great DT class. If we go there probably best value is late for development big prospect
OT- one of the worst OT classes of all time. If we go there probably best value is late for developmental prospect like the Julien Davenport guy
April 25th, 2017 at 5:06 pm
I think he trades up in the 1st round this year, and it’s not going to be for who everybody wants. If either Jamal Adams or Malik Hooker slide past 12 he’ll try to move up. I also think Haasan Reddick is a possible trade up candidate. Trade up or trade down in the 1st, I don’t like the 19th pick this year. It feels like kind of a dead zone in this draft. I’d rather be picking early teens or mid twenties.
Either way, I think we’ll see quite a bit of movement in the first three rounds of this draft.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:06 pm
“Licht looked for late-round speedsters at receiver/returner in 2014 and 2015. Robert Herron, Kenny Bell and Kaelin Clay didn’t work out.”
And he signed DeSean Jackson because of it. Jackson is a 4 year fix at least.
…also went fullback in the seventh and sixth rounds, respectively. Joey Iosefa and Danny Vitale got cut in a hurry.
This is why I believe he will go after a short yardage RB that can pass block this year. Samaje Perine or James Conner anyone?
Through the past two drafts, Licht has selected a player in the second round and then traded back into the second round for another body.
He also managed to acquire an extra pick to use in the trade each time. It’s possible he could trade back a couple spots in the first to pick up that extra pick again, then use it to get back into the second.
Which brings up an interesting point…does he intentionally target players in the first that he knows will last 2-3 spots after the Bucs pick…hoping for a trade back opportunity? If so, he is a genius.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:09 pm
“If he becomes a Buc, he will be the only player I will never root for.”
Why? What did he do as a teenager that has made you decide he is a deplorable human no matter what he does the rest of his life?
I’m genuinely curious. Must have been super f8cked up
April 25th, 2017 at 5:09 pm
(fixed)
Bonzai’s 2017 Draft & UDFA Wishlist
DISCLAIMER: Not a mock draft, obviously. Each year, I consider the positions of need and try to determine which players would 1) be most helpful and 2) might be chosen by the Bucs if available.
Players marked with ‘*’ are the ones I think have a higher chance of being picked by the Bucs.
Grades are according to NFL.Com only. The list is in order of position to make things easier to track.
• QB Alek Torgersen (4.9) * (UDFA)
• QB Cooper Rush (5.0) (UDFA)
• RB Leonard Fournette (6.8) (judged out of reach)
• RB Dalvin Cook (6.5) *
• RB Christian McCaffrey (5.9)
• RB Samaje Perine (5.6) *
• RB James Conner (5.4)
• RB Brian Hill (5.4) *
• WR Cooper Kupp (5.7)
• WR Chris Godwin (5.7) *
• WR Zay Jones (5.7) *
• WR Travis Rudolph (5.5)
• TE David Njoku (6.3) *
• TE O.J. Howard (6.5) *
• TE Adam Shaheen (5.8)
• TE Michael Roberts (5.45) *
• OT Garett Bolles (6.0) *
• OT Zach Banner (5.6)
• OT Julie’n Davenport (5.35) *
• G Dorian Johnson 5.78 *
• C Pat Elflein (5.8)
• C/OG Dan Feeney (5.7)
• C/OG Isaac Asiata (5.51)
• C Kyle Fuller (5.3)
• DE Solomon Thomas (6.8) (judged out of reach)
• DE Jonathan Allen (6.8) (judged out of reach)
• DE Taco Charlton (6.3) *
• DE Derek Barnett (6.1) *
• DE/OLB T.J. Watt (5.8) *
• DE Takkarist McKinley (6.2)
• DE/OLB Jordan Willis (5.7) *
• DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (5.6)
• DE DeMarcus Walker (5.6)
• DE Bryan Cox (5.39) *
• CB Adoreé Jackson (5.8)
• CB Ahkello Witherspoon (5.7)
• S Malik Hooker (6.7) (judged out of reach)
• S Jamal Adams (6.6) (judged out of reach)
• S Obi Melifonwu (5.7) *
• S Marcus Williams (5.8)
• SS Xavier Woods (5.19) * (UDFA)
• FS Budda Baker (5.9) *
• FS Tedric Thompson (5.5) *
April 25th, 2017 at 5:12 pm
I gree..trade way up or trade way down. 19 is like the dead zone I get on my cellphone driving through northern Florida..
My dream would be to trade up OJ Howard. Brate, Howard, Djax, Evans and either Mixon or Perrine as our RB would give defenses NIGHTMARES for years to come.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:13 pm
gotbbucs, there are plenty of options there at 19 this year. Well, I hope there will be. I suppose it is possible most get taken sooner. But going by the way the draft grades play out, several should be there at positions of need and still be BPA for the most part.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:13 pm
Listening to Kaufman podcast about Sweezy backup plan, Licht has draft at least 1 offensive lineman in every bucs draft so far. Some guys can just constantly find gems at a position. McKay/Kiffin was amazing at cornerback, maybe it’s drafting a guy every year in middle rounds but Licht is proving adept at drafting offensive linemen. You can’t hit on every pick but so far he’s shown very adept, so Licht will draft an offensive lineman, a future right tackle that can immediately play guard makes a lot of sense.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:14 pm
Going by the law of averages, the Bucs should be picking around draft grade 6.1 through 6.3 at 19. That leaves some really good talent.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:15 pm
R1-Trade back with Seahawks at 26; gaining two 3rds (picks 90 & 102) and giving up our 4th (pick 125)
R1-Adoree Jackson – CB/PR/KR
R2-Jordan Willis – DE
R3-Curtis Samuel RB/WR
R3-Marcus Maye – S
R3-Samaje Perine/Kareem Hunt- RB
R5-Michael Roberts – TE
R6-Julien Davenport – OT
R7-some random DT
how can that not happen?
April 25th, 2017 at 5:18 pm
Lord..I love it but I want to stick Roderick Henderson from Souther Miss..in that lineup..that guy is a freakazoid..
April 25th, 2017 at 5:19 pm
@Lord Cornelius
Dang, man…that would make me so happy I’d cry. Everyone of those are on my wish list! lol
April 25th, 2017 at 5:20 pm
Well, except for Curtis Samuel RB/WR.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:22 pm
Here’s a thought…Adoreé Jackson also played Wide Receiver. So he could do returns and switch to WR…hence we have a speed guy.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:24 pm
NycBuc, I think it’s because Licht might have played Offensive Line in the past, if I remember right. He’s also really good at finding them undrafted, along with good backup RBs.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:26 pm
Predicted Bucs 2017 Picks by Draft Grade:
Round 1, Pick 19 (19) 6.2
Round 2, Pick 18 (50) 5.8
Round 3, Pick 20 (84) 5.7
Round 4, Pick 19 (125) 5.5
Round 5, Pick 18 (162) 5.4
Round 6, Pick 20 (204) 5.3
Round 7, Pick 19 (237) 5.2
April 25th, 2017 at 5:28 pm
Lord corn- I was thinking how awkward it would be for Lifeasabucfan to enjoy a buc game. “I love that the Bucs scored that touchdown but don’t like the way they did it”.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:42 pm
I think Licht will make two moves in the draft. No idea if he will trade future picks to get into an extra pick but I do think he trades back in the first.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:42 pm
@Lord C
I would be very happy with your draft scenario.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:54 pm
Would be fine with trading back into the 2nd even more so if we can trade down from 19 and get a couple extra picks. We need to be aggressive and that’s something Licht excels with.
April 25th, 2017 at 5:59 pm
I think all our hemming and hawing about right tackle will be forgotten. I think we drafted or starter last year. It’s tough to ask rookies to start on the o line. I’m looking for kid from UCLA to simply out play Dotson in the pre season.
April 25th, 2017 at 6:12 pm
We traded up last year for a kicker for god sakes when DL OL safety will all needs last year…. there is no telling what Licht may do.
April 25th, 2017 at 6:14 pm
Conte nailed it. That UCLA guy would cost is a 2nd in this draft had he stuck around for another year.
April 25th, 2017 at 6:38 pm
Corn
If we could end up with three picks in the 3rd round I would be over the moon with excitment!!
To bad Seattle likes to trade down not up, one can dream though
April 25th, 2017 at 6:43 pm
Lord Cornelius Says:
April 25th, 2017 at 5:15 pm
R1-Trade back with Seahawks at 26; gaining two 3rds (picks 90 & 102) and giving up our 4th (pick 125)
R1-Adoree Jackson – CB/PR/KR
R2-Jordan Willis – DE
R3-Curtis Samuel RB/WR
R3-Marcus Maye – S
R3-Samaje Perine/Kareem Hunt- RB
R5-Michael Roberts – TE
R6-Julien Davenport – OT
R7-some random DT
how can that not happen?
Here’s how that can not happen.
Jordan Willis is probably gone at #50.
Curtis Samuel is absolutely gone at #84.
Samaje Perine is absolutely gone at #102.
Julie’n Davenport is absolutely gone at #204.
And for you guys saying the Bucs should unload their 5,6,and 7 picks and only draft through the 4th – get real. Those picks combined are worth about 33 points on the draft chart. That gets you pick 153 in the fifth round. Those late round picks are where you build depth and pick up special teamers. If you unload them, you lose.
April 25th, 2017 at 6:46 pm
I think Litch will try to trade out of the 19 spot in order to get more picks.
Most people think that teams can easily sit and wait for their pick because there is so much talent this year. However, I think that is exactly opposite of what happens. I think there will be tons of trades this year. There are so many different types of prospects this year that teams can go and get exactly what type of player they want. I don’t forsee gigantic trades but tons and tons of small trades of teams jockeying for position within each round.
What if the Browns want to give up their 2-2nds to get back into the 1st? Would you go into the second day with 3-2nds? Because I can easily think of 3 players I want in the 2nd round.
April 25th, 2017 at 6:48 pm
Daniel Jeremiah Mock Draft 5.0 has the Bucs drafting Dalvin Cook.
April 25th, 2017 at 7:49 pm
If we select CB Awuzia from Colorado in the first round I will seriously lose it!!!!!
April 25th, 2017 at 8:46 pm
If we could manage to pick this kid up in the 3rd or 4th I’d be happy believe it or not.
Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida
April 25th, 2017 at 9:13 pm
I kind of suspect the Bucs will choose a 34 LB for the DE spot.
April 25th, 2017 at 10:33 pm
@eric I’ve always been a firm believer of anything after round four typically isn’t worth it. Occasionally, teams are lucky but it’s not always the case. Rounds 5-7 are practically UDFA. Use lower picks to move up. If you can have 4-5 picks in rounds 1-4, good things can happen!
April 25th, 2017 at 11:03 pm
in all 3 of licht’s drafts, he was working with a top 10 pick to begin with. the breaking of that pattern is likely to invalidate alot of his previous patterns: he has less valuable picks to work trades with, and at least in theory picking at 19 points to a team with more targeted holes to fill than a team picking at 7 or 9 who probably has more holes to fill than passable starters. Bad for the news outlets, but really the only sensible thing to do is to stop guessing and just see what happens between now and sunday
April 25th, 2017 at 11:44 pm
Looks good Lord C. But as pointed out – its a bit optimistic that a couple of those players will be available where you have them drafted. Mock boards are all over the place on some of these guys so its hard to properly place some of them.
I will offer 3 scenarios that I would like to see – picking mainly by position per round with at least a couple of options that would hopefully be available. The last scenario is my favorite but involves a trade down in the 1st which will likely be hard to pull off.
Take 1:
1st – RB – Dalvin Cook/ Christian McCaffrey
2nd – WR – Zay Jones/ Chris Godwin
3rd – S – Justin Evans/Desmond King/Marcus Maye/Josh Jones
4th – DE – Daeshon Hall/ Trey Hendrickson/ Deatrich Wise
Take 2:
1st – WR – Corey Davis / John Ross
2nd – DE – Jordan Willis / Carl Lawson/ Tarell Basham
3rd – RB – Kareem Hunt/ Samaje Perine/ Marlon Mack
4th – TE – Bucky Hodges/ Jeremy Sprinkle/ Jonnu Smith/ Michael Roberts
Take 3:
1st – CB – Adore Jackson (Trade Down)
2nd – S – Budda Baker (Trade up)
3rd – RB – Kareem Hunt/ Samaje Perine/ Marlon Mack
4th – WR – Josh Reynolds/ Taywan Taylor/ K.D. Cannon/ Carlos Henderson
April 25th, 2017 at 11:56 pm
And for those saying trade 5th,6th and 7th round picks to get 1 higher pick – those last 3 picks of ours are worth less than 60 value points. The best we could do would be to trade all 3 to move up from mid 5th into the bottom of the 4th round. If there is a particular player that you LOVE sitting there at the end of the 4th – then maybe – but normally best to just trust your eval process and select 3 players at the end of the draft and hope you strike gold or at least silver with one of them.
April 26th, 2017 at 3:28 pm
Get speed edge rusher first, then address WR with speed. After that whoever best RB is her em is best