Bad Gamble
April 6th, 2017
Fighting history.
Several Bucs fans lie awake in bed, staring at the ceiling and instead of seeing the pitch dark blackness of the night, see Adrian Peterson running through opposing defenses.
Joe sometimes wonders if those same fans are thinking of the name “Adrian Peterson” or the actual running back who, at 31-years of age last year, had worse statistics than Doug Martin and saw his final season in Minnesota cut short with a knee injury.
Many of these same fans just cannot understand why Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht won’t pounce on Peterson, especially since Peterson cited the Bucs months ago as a team he is interested in playing for, and he has been working out with America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.
The data, as NFL folks will tell you, against over-30 running backs, is significant.
So Joe decided to do some research. Seems in the nearly 100 years the NFL has been around, a grand total of 12 running backs 30-years old or older have run for 1,000 yards in a season.
Think of all the teams and all the running backs in all of those years, and only 12 ran for 1,000 yards who were 30-years old.
Throw in the fact Peterson has a bum knee, well, that’s one helluva roll of the dice by Licht.
Imagine if you are Licht and you sign Peterson and he’s toast, having to face Team Glazer after the season and trying to explain your way out of that jam when Team Glazer asks why you fully ignored substantial evidence and burned their millions of dollars
Even worse, explaining to your wife how she might now have to get a job because you are on the griddle at work for ignoring substantial evidence and burned through millions of dollars of your employer’s loot.
If this were 2007 and not 2017, Joe would be all over acquiring Peterson.
Father Time is an unforgiving SOB.
April 6th, 2017 at 5:12 am
What about stats on RB’s coming off ACL injuries?? Im pretty sure he beat those odds already. Dont throw this 32yr old non sense out there. If anyone can and will be a beast at 32 its AP
April 6th, 2017 at 5:23 am
Lowball him with an incentive based contract. No production…….no money.
April 6th, 2017 at 6:05 am
If we kept Doug would that keep the team from drafting a RB? I think dougs gone. The rookie wall can be a very real thing so why not try and sign him and draft a RB aswell? They got to be ready for carries in January.
April 6th, 2017 at 6:08 am
NFL please move up the draft this is brutal!
April 6th, 2017 at 6:13 am
So it’s a gamble to sign a guy for money, but totally logical to trade over half of our draft away to get a running back?
You’re losing it man.
April 6th, 2017 at 6:15 am
I’m not saying I’m all for signing Peterson but I’m not against it if the contract is right. I’d be interested in knowing who those 12 rb’s were. I’m sure none of them were even close to Peterson talent level.
April 6th, 2017 at 6:16 am
Especially a motivated Peterson
April 6th, 2017 at 6:29 am
Buccaneer scotty, got a hunch this is one of those fake news articles while we wait for the draft to start. Can’t wait for 17 April when the team can finally start getting together. Granted, that only starts 2 weeks of weight room work & doesn’t allow any on-field coaching or supervision by coaches who aren’t strength & conditioning coaches. And of course no footballs … EXCEPT that QBs can throw to uncovered receivers. That right there could be a harbinger of things to come this season … Desean running uncovered down the sideline. Yes, definitely a step up from more AP articles.
April 6th, 2017 at 6:41 am
The fact the Patriots passed on him speaks volumes. Wow, John Riggins was a beast. He did it at 34 & 35, once over 1300 yards. Lets say you could get one more out of AP, would you fore go getting a top quality running back in the draft? If a blue chip RB (Cook or McCaffrey) is available then the Bucs should jump on them and have the RB position locked up for years to come. AP is like buying a gallon of milk that expires the next day.
April 6th, 2017 at 6:50 am
@dreambig
I think that could also been a play to get Blount back though. They guy did 18 touchdowns last year, be hard to move on from him
April 6th, 2017 at 6:59 am
I can’t imagine him being any worse than Doug last season. I’m all for signing him as long as they aren’t overspending to get him but they still need to draft a young RB to eventually take over.
April 6th, 2017 at 7:39 am
A name is all AP is anymore. Great career. Thanks for the memories. C ya.
April 6th, 2017 at 7:52 am
Imagine….wake up, it’s MIXON with a Bucs #28 jersey on!! HE’S THAT DAMN GOOD! BUILD THE DAMN WALL!!
April 6th, 2017 at 8:09 am
Ap was awful last season and a liability in pass protection. If your line is solid you can plug in running backs woth success.
April 6th, 2017 at 8:11 am
…and of ALL the running backs who ran for 1000 yards after 30, ALMOST ALL HAPPENED IN THE LAST 20 YEARS. Fact is, AP is better than all of them.
1 Tiki Barber 30 NYG 2005 357 5.21 1,860 9 305.0
2 Curtis Martin 31 NYJ 2004 371 4.57 1,697 12 278.2
3 Tiki Barber 31 NYG 2006 327 5.08 1,662 5 240.7
4 Barry Sanders 30 DET 1998 343 4.35 1,491 4 198.0
5 Priest Holmes 30 KC 2003 320 4.44 1,420 27 371.0
6 Warrick Dunn 30 ATL 2005 280 5.06 1,416 3 185.6
7 Thomas Jones 31 NYJ 2009 331 4.24 1,402 14 230.0
8 Emmitt Smith 30 DAL 1999 329 4.25 1,397 11 223.6
9 Thomas Jones 30 NYJ 2008 290 4.52 1,312 13 239.9
10 Curtis Martin 30 NYJ 2003 323 4.05 1,308 2 165.0
11 Ricky Watters 31 SEA 2000 278 4.47 1,242 7 235.5
12 Ricky Watters 30 SEA 1999 325 3.72 1,210 5 193.7
13 Garrison Hearst30 SF 2001 252 4.79 1,206 4 183.3
14 Emmitt Smith 31 DAL 2000 294 4.09 1,203 9 172.2
15 Fred Taylor 31 JAC 2007 223 5.39 1,202 5 154.0
16 Fred Taylor 30 JAC 2006 231 4.96 1,146 5 170.8
17 Warrick Dunn 31 ATL 2006 286 3.99 1,140 4 161.0
18 Ricky Williams 32 MIA 2009 241 4.65 1,121 11 212.5
19 H. Walker. 30 PHI 1992 267 4.01 1,070 8 186.8
20 T. Thomas 30 BUF 1996 281 3.68 1,033 8 174.7
21 C. Okoye 30 KC 1991 225 4.58 1,031 9 154.5
22 Eddie George 30 TEN 2003 312 3.30 1,031 5 149.4
23 Emmitt Smith 32 DAL 2001 261 3.91 1,021 3 129.7
24 James Stewart 30 DET 2002 231 4.42 1,021 4 171.4
25 Mike Anderson 32 DEN 2005 239 4.24 1,014 12 196.6
26 James Brooks 31 CIN 1990 195 5.15 1,004 5 181.3
April 6th, 2017 at 8:21 am
If Buc fans want a RB drafted…Martin stays…Peterson is out of consideration. Fans rarely consider all the proper angles, particularly if it doesn’t work. Licht HAS NOT had great track record with FAs….He’s not rolling the dice on a 32 yr old unless he’s significantly cheaper AND Martin refused to restructure his contract.
April 6th, 2017 at 8:37 am
I don’t really care whether they sign him or not. I don’t even care if they draft a RB in the 1st or the 4th.
What I care about is the Safety spot and the two lines in this draft.
April 6th, 2017 at 8:38 am
Dude come on! The guy was in an offense that the offensive line sucked for one! No one ran good on that team last year. 2nd norv turners offense was not a good fit for petersons running style.
April 6th, 2017 at 8:42 am
Seriously, if Thomas Jones can do it twice there is NO WAY Adrian Peterson can do it?
April 6th, 2017 at 8:43 am
Or more importantly, is it 100% that if AP does not run for 1000 yards his season is a bust? If the Bucs win the Super Bowl and AP runs for 999 yards is Licht going to be fired?
April 6th, 2017 at 8:46 am
Don’t just pump the brakes, James Walker, stomp them as hard as you can!!! You might make the argument that AP is better than SOME of the backs you list, but I have to draw the line with Barry Sanders. You know, the entire Lions offense for an entire decade! The guy who ran for over a 1,000 yards for 10 straight seasons!
NO WAY! NO HOW that AP is better than Barry! NEVER! WON’T HAPPEN!
Better go check those stats before you make statements like that!
April 6th, 2017 at 8:48 am
I would rather bring back Mike James.
April 6th, 2017 at 8:57 am
What’s my name? Mike James! If Blount don’t resign with NE get him instead. I miss his running style.
April 6th, 2017 at 9:02 am
If we are going the older veteran (we are not, by the way) I’d rather have the guy the Patriots are putting the squeeze on (Blount) than the guy the Patriots brought in for leverage (Peterson). Whatever the dollar amount, I’d rather have LB than AP in 2017/18
April 6th, 2017 at 9:39 am
Mrs. Licht might have to get a job because Mr. Licht is on the hot seat??? I’m sure Mr. Licht is earning an annual salary well into the 7 figures and he is set for life. Not to mention that he would easily get re-hired in somebody’s front office somewhere based on his favorable draft record. But don’t let reality get in the way of hyperbole.
April 6th, 2017 at 9:40 am
Team Glazer is all in. They will decide if the risk is worth it so THEY will be making a gamble not Licht. Adrian Peterson had an entire year off the year he was suspended and played little last year. Take two years off the knees of a physical freak and tell me he cant do what 12 other backs have done in the NFL. I think he can do it and will do well. That being said I think they should draft Cook too for insurance and for Peterson to mentor.
April 6th, 2017 at 10:45 am
Nothing will happen regarding the Bucs possibly signing AP until after the draft.
If we draft a RB in the 1st round – then you know AP is not coming. That back will have tons of talent and be expected to be the workhorse. If we draft a back in the 2nd or 3rd round – the same probably applies because the 2nd and 3rd rounders this year are quite talented. If RB doesn’t get addressed until day 3 though – then maybe.
If we don’t draft a RB w/ a high pick – then I would love to see AP finish his career as a Buccaneer. He deserves a chance at being part of something special after languishing on mostly bad Vikings teams all these years while he ran for thousands and thousands of yards Sept>Dec only to sit in January. I think if one were to take a chance on an older back having enough left in the tank to pull out another big season or 2 – that a guy like Peterson is the one you should take that chance on.
The big question of course (IF the Bucs are even willing to entertain the idea) is the one of economics. Does Peterson want to play for a $4-5M base with maybe a couple more $M available in incentives? Even for a runner as legendary as Peterson, that’s probably a fair offer considering his situation (32, bad tape when healthy and then major injury last year).
This guy has shown amazing resiliency regarding recovering from injury and coming back quickly to blow up the league in the not so distant past. He led the league in rushing just 15 months ago! He’s probably worth the gamble if they don’t feel 100% solid at the RB position coming out of the draft and AP is willing to play for a fair offer.
April 6th, 2017 at 11:09 am
Dude did you guys forget that Blount hated playing for Tampa? He ain’t coming back here. Smh
April 6th, 2017 at 11:11 am
Jason licht isn’t on no hot seat either. Man the stuff ppl make up in their heads. Ridiculous!
April 6th, 2017 at 1:33 pm
I can’t believe Joe is still bring up Peterson every day. Move on.
April 6th, 2017 at 1:43 pm
Jesus f-ing Christ, AP is going to be a supplementary RB and We’ll draft our primary one and if AP goes down we got a whole stable of supplementary RBs.