Koetter: Stats Overload Is A Time-Eater
March 23rd, 2017
Dirk Koetter was asked about stats again
Joe was gentle in the headline here, regarding Dirk Koetter’s most recent public chat about stats, data and the rapidly growing analytics community — the one’s trying to destroy the game of football.
Joe could have written “time-waster.”
Koetter talked to WGFX-FM in Tennessee last month and was asked about the use of the latest computer-generated stats touted by the NFL.
In short, Koetter said he’s too busy to invest the time.
WGFX interviewer: The league casts it as if they’re giving you [coaches] a treasure trove of information with these next generation stats off the [computer] chips. How much did you guys wade through that through the season? How much have you waded through it since the season? And what’s maybe one big thing it’s told you that you didn’t know?
Dirk Koetter: I’m not going to say I’m not a fan. I personally do not use it. And if you go across the league I think you’ll see all levels across the board of people that are 100 percent in to people that are zero percent in. I mean, shoot, I’ve been coaching football for 35 years. You know, I do believe in analytics. All these forms of stats and analytics, they’re all useful. And there’s so many of them. There’s just so much out there, the volume. … There’s only so much time in the day. You just cannot look at every single thing. We have other people that look at it. But that’s just not something that I use very much.
This was a rather rare politically correct answer for the Bucs’ candid head coach, who has skewered the stats-nerd community in the past. Joe found it funny. First, Koetter says he doesn’t use the latest analytics, then he says all stats are “useful,” and then he finishes by sitting on the fence by saying he’s too busy.
Joe’s no fan of the data assault. Too much of it is silly, and none of it can account for football players who speak softly and carry a big motherf%&*’n stick, to use Koetter’s phrase.
Joe believes Koetter has the right approach. Have staff study the stuff (yes, the Bucs have an analytics department) and only show the head coach the few shreds that might be useful.
March 23rd, 2017 at 12:38 pm
9-7 is the only stat he needs to concern himself with. The got Dan lions made the playoffs ahead of us. THAT speaks volumes.
March 23rd, 2017 at 12:39 pm
Pretty good summation. Some are useful, some are meaningless. All depends on the context of the situation.
Despite being only his 2nd year, Koetter is an old-school coach and this just illustrates that perfectly.
March 23rd, 2017 at 12:43 pm
Over the yrs have seen far too many leaders who faced ‘paralysis by analysis’. Far too many would study cr@p to death before making a decision because IMO … they were afraid of making the wrong decision. And oftentimes that’s what information overload led to … the wrong decision. Highly experienced coaches, like Dirk Koetter & Mike Smith, understand the general analytics but oftentimes ‘go with their gut’ in determining what play to call, which players to put in, etc. There’s no substitute for knowing your people, and far too often you can’t get that from just looking at the numbers.
March 23rd, 2017 at 1:40 pm
They have personnel who analyze those stats. The head coach does not have time to do everything himself. That is what I take from his response.
March 23rd, 2017 at 2:32 pm
Exactly rayjay. He expects and utilizes input based on analytics from the staff, but it is just a part of the information needed to get the job done.
March 23rd, 2017 at 2:52 pm
Dusty this for you. Both starting corners from last season gone,Bennie Logan gone,Connor Barwin cap casualty gone. Mychal Kendricks and Marcus Smith still recovering from injury. Defensive Qtr name ryhmes with pork. Get my drift.
March 23rd, 2017 at 4:27 pm
Naturally. It’s the same reason there is a coaching staff and not just a coach. One man can’t do everything.
March 23rd, 2017 at 4:37 pm
It’s football, not rocket science. He’s a coach, he coaches the football players that are provided for him. Most coaches that have been around long enough can look at a player on the field for a little while and make a decision on what they think they can do with them.
Football is a game of situations, some players are most effective in certain situations, other players are better in other situations. Bill Belichick is a mad scientist when it comes to this. Some coaches choose to toss the same players at every situation, which works too, if your team is full of super stars.
You need a good QB and a good offensive line. You have your absolute studs in other positions that you leave on the field for almost any situation, and then you build a roster full of chess pieces. The trick then is to know when and where to play them. Simple, right?
March 23rd, 2017 at 4:41 pm
Though you need something to reference progress I agree. If you want stats go watch baseball, a game entirely dependent on stats.
March 23rd, 2017 at 5:21 pm
it shouldn’t be up to coaches to crunch the numbers, but they should be interested in some of the findings. some of these next gen stats are mental *ahem* self-pleasure. how useful is it to know your CB had a top speed of 25 mph or that the RB ran a total of 15 yards on his 5 yard gain?
however, situational stats are and (i believe) always have been vital to coaching…what are the opponent’s tendencies on 2nd and short? does it make sense to go for it on 4th down? In basketball there is a statistically optimal way to work the shot clock if you are ahead or behind. Data = better decision making, but i would agree with Dirk that it shouldn’t be the head coach’s job to contemplate spreadsheets instead of film cutups to find some winning edge
March 23rd, 2017 at 6:37 pm
When analytics told us that ej biggers was better than ronde when analytics first became popular, I knew then i had no us for such jibberish. A different sport…when analytics told us that anderson varejo was some great player because his +/- was high, it further let me know that analytics was jibberish. Varejo’s +/- was high because he was always on the court with lebron. Everybody’s +/- is high if you are on the court with lebron. He has done squat without lebron because he is garbage. I use the eyeball test. Last i checked, analytics do not have eyes.
March 23rd, 2017 at 6:44 pm
Webster:
Don’t forget Anthony Collins!
March 23rd, 2017 at 9:49 pm
My take on this is I assume most people on this site have played the sport on some level and obviously not on the NFL level but you know when you practice day in day out who the ballers are. Regardless of what the analytics say. You know which players you want out there in any situation. The coaches know this and depend on their esperience and feel for the right decisions. They use the analytics to supplement this and go forward. They use the analytics as useful but peripheral info.