Draft Shaking Out Now
March 8th, 2017
Offseason crossroads.
Joe knew this before talking to Pat Kirwan last week in Indianapolis, the sage of SiriusXM NFL Radio and the baron of the most underrated football site on the interwebs, RealFootballNetwork.com.
Joe always thought the term “best available” in the draft was nonsense.
For example, if the best-rated player when the Bucs draft at No. 19 is a quarterback, does anyone in their right mind think Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht would draft, say, Deshaun Watson? C’mon!
Kirwan, a former Jets personnel chief, is of the mind a team’s free agency attack plan all but determines its draft the following month.
“Well, [this offseason] is a function of what [Jason Licht] does in free agency,” Kirwan said. “That is going to tell us, what did he lose and what did he gain? There are offers out there. And most of those guys out there [in free agency] know this is [likely] the only time I’m getting an offer because the next contract will be too close to 30.
“So, that is why the draft is for need way more than people in the business want to admit. ‘Best available,’ that was before free agency. That is passé. You have to deal with the holes. You don’t get enough time to develop [players drafted under ‘best available’ theory] and coaches don’t stay long enough.
“[The Bucs] have to get a receiver. So let’s say [the Bucs] lay an egg and don’t get one [in free agency]. Well, that turns into a priority in the draft.”
So there you have it. Want to get an idea what the Bucs do come late April? Watch what happens the next few days.
March 8th, 2017 at 10:08 am
Correct !!!
March 8th, 2017 at 10:14 am
I thought we covered this months ago??????
“The Buc Realist Says:
August 9th, 2016 at 10:57 am
NFL Draft 2017 WR, TE, DT, Safety!!!!!!”
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!
March 8th, 2017 at 10:16 am
Don’t teams set their own draft boards? If they do they will make it based off their specific needs. So if we dont need a QB we wont have a QB ranked high enough to be BPA at #19….
March 8th, 2017 at 10:29 am
Joey
Sir you are making entirely too much sense please tread lightly
March 8th, 2017 at 10:31 am
A team should use the following equation:
bpa + tn = dp
Key:
bpa – best player available
tn – team need
dp – draft pick
To determine draft board use the following equation:
(pon – fas) x qofas = db
Key
pon – Positions of need
fas – free agents signed
qofas – quality of free agnets signed
db – draftboard
If above fails – coin flip
If coin flip fails – use darts
If darts fail – pin the tail on the draft pick
March 8th, 2017 at 10:35 am
In addition, I think this draft is one of the deepest for starting caliber CB and WR into the top of 3rd round, DL, RB and TE through the top of the 4th round. Whereas starting OL and LB are late 1st round and Safeties mid 2nd rd. I don’t see any starting caliber QB’s.
I’d be surprised if we didn’t pick up a DL, safety and a WR2 in FA and then draft for need after round 1. Licht should land at least 3,4 FA’s.
March 8th, 2017 at 10:35 am
No sh@t Sherlock
March 8th, 2017 at 10:39 am
Best available at the positions of need.
So if our greatest needs are DE, C, RT, WR, RB in that order (in theory), but the best available when we pick in round one is a RB, then take the RB. Or if it is RT, you take the RT.
Best available at needs.
March 8th, 2017 at 10:41 am
C’mon joe… you know how they have players on their boards. They will have a number of players they have rated they will take at 19 and so on through the rounds. They will not have QBs in their plans for early round picks and who knows they may have QBs off there boards all together. If they get to the 6th round and there’s a QB you had rated a 2nd or 3rd. Of course you think about pulling the trigger. If you had QB in the bottom first and you have your top 2nd round DE of course you pick the DE. Just to thrust a QB in to BPA doesn’t make sense if you already have one. Look how the Patriots draft QBs every few years. But they don’t reach for one.
March 8th, 2017 at 10:42 am
False
Unless you saying that whatever we get in FA we will also get in the draft? Because that’s what we did last year..grimes-VH3 ayers-spence. This seems to be contradictory to what is said in the article…
March 8th, 2017 at 10:43 am
Yes Bonzai and to add on to that teams shouldn’t reach to fill there biggest needs first. For Example:
If our biggest need is a RB and the best RB available has a 2nd round grade, you dont take him in the 1st round just because he fills the biggest need.
March 8th, 2017 at 10:45 am
what hes trying to say is, if we dont sign a decent WR in freeagency, John Ross moves to the top of our board.
March 8th, 2017 at 10:45 am
Personally, barring changes due to free agency or trades, I would like to see the draft play out like this:
Round 1 DE or WR
Round 2 DE (if not taken already), WR (if not taken already) or RT
Round 3 RT or RB
Round 4 RT (if not taken already), RB (if not taken already) or C
Round 5 C (if not taken already) or CB
Round 6 CB (if not taken already) or WR
Round 7 WR (if not taken already) or QB
March 8th, 2017 at 10:47 am
BPA on your OWN board. C’mon Joe.
March 8th, 2017 at 10:55 am
He states the obvious. Why is that news?
If a team fills their holes in FA, BPA is a solid strategy. If not, need plays a role.
March 8th, 2017 at 11:23 am
They rank every player at every position based on strength not just their needs. It has to do with trading picks.
March 8th, 2017 at 11:24 am
Definitely go DE or WR with the 1st choice. Now we could trade down and get 2 for the price of one guys. Looks like there are good receivers going into the 3rd round here. If we can get an even greater pass rush? Look out!
March 8th, 2017 at 11:41 am
I remember getting castrated on this board for emphasizing that the BPA last season might be Ezekiel Elliot, but we had just signed Doug Martin to a huge contract so there was no way that we could draft Ezekiel Elliot. Just saying, if there was a Jameis Winston on the board at #19 you would draft him, but QBs are ALWAYS overvalued, so there is no way you would ever have a QB on the board that is the BPA outside of the top 3 picks. Winston or Mariotta were arguably 1,2 BPA on the board in 2015 and that is rare. Last year, no one had Jared Goff or Carson Wentz at 1 and 2 BPA. Prior to Tunsil pulling the gas mask stunt he was heavily mocked to Chargers and Bosa was mocked to Cowboys.. an Elliot slide to 9 was very possible.
Anyone here today that would not loved taking Elliot at 9?
When you draft for need and reach, you get Mark Barron vs Luke Keuchly, Gaines Adams vs Adrian Petersen or Aguayo for fill in the blank.
The game is can Licht match need with BPA on his sheet. Last year, he moved two spaces back so that he could match his needs with his BPA in the first. First round picks, not used on QB’s should be based on BPA. With the salary cap structure how it is, passing on a impact player over need, e.g. taking John Ross instead of Marshon Lattimore, just because we drafted VHIII last year would be crazy.
Anyone remember the Redskins 4th round pick for the RGIII draft?
This year that BPA at 19 might just be OJ Howard. I guess we should just pass because of Cam Brate (who I really, really like)
I love this site and I love the Joe’s work.. really do but BPA, especially on early rounds seems to work out. It is Lichts job to match need, value, BPA and draft placement. Sometimes you have to move around to do this. Rarely do the planets align on there own. Never fear the BPA.
March 8th, 2017 at 12:04 pm
@MikeJohnson
I hear ya on WR in the third. I just watched the Cooper Kupp from eastern Washington who is projected for the third. Doesn’t matter if it’s Big Sky Conference this kid can ball. He has the size, strength, speed, hands, and he’s got shakes like Allen Iverson.
March 8th, 2017 at 1:41 pm
Just something to sober us all up. I saw this stat on the NFL network last night.
Of all the FA’s signed from the beginning of the FA period until the start of the season only 8 were selected to the Pro Bowl! That’s a little over 6%!!!
We may get some talent but the odds are 10-1 against that talent being a pro bowler. More likely to get a complimentary piece of the puzzle.
March 8th, 2017 at 2:38 pm
Oh here we go again with Joe’s ridiculous take on the meaning of BPA.
It’s like joeypopems and tnew said… It’s BPA that also aligns with the needs of a team. This isn’t a hard concept to understand, I don’t know why the Joes insist on making it an issue every offseason.
March 8th, 2017 at 5:21 pm
I’m pretty certain the Joes actually had an article last draft season explaining how Licht wants BPA and team need to coalesce. But this is coming from the fan base that can’t remember what happens the game before we play