Dirk Koetter’s Influence
February 15th, 2017
Behind-the-scenes influence? (Photo courtesy of Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Pardon Joe if folks consider the following admission a personal weakness or some professional slight. So be it.
Joe is a huge believer in what people say publicly, especially when it’s said repeatedly.
Clearly, a guy walking around with a white cane can see the Bucs terribly need #WeaponsForWinston. In fact, it is bordering on criminal that America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, has but one top-shelf weapon to work with.
Winning Bucs coach Dirk Koetter, whose background is offense, naturally is drawn to that side of the ball.
He constantly talks about scoring and “explosive plays.” Those commodities are in short supply, which is why Koetter has more than once said the Bucs need to get Jameis weapons (to join Mike Evans).
The NFL Draft looms. The Bucs need a running back in the worst way. The team is also crying out for a No. 2 receiver, preferably a guy who can stretch the field.
Enter AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht. It’s clear Licht runs the draft and personnel. Koetter has a lot of input, sure, evident by how many former Koetter players were signed last season when the Bucs suffered such a rash of injuries on offense.
Often, Koetter is asked about a personnel move and replies, “That’s a Jason question,” suggesting it’s better directed at Licht.
More facts: Koetter may have had one of the best comments Joe has ever heard from an NFL coach. In 2015, offensive coordinator Koetter famously said, “The only thing people give a sh!t about are wins.” Bill Parcells never spoke anything more true.
Also, Joe assumes Koetter is keenly aware that Team Glazer is not fond of losing. So far, Koetter has done a wonderful job, but since Chucky was jettisoned in January 2009, Team Glazer has demonstrated an itchy trigger finger with coaches.
So Joe doesn’t require much math here to conclude Koetter is likely a very impatient man these days.
As Joe has written several times, given the Bucs’ immense salary cap room, the talent on the roster and looming big-time paychecks Team Glazer will have to cut in the not-so distant future, the Bucs likely have a two- to four-year window to make a legitimate Super Bowl run.
What’s Joe getting? Well, if Joe can read the tea leaves, surely so too can Koetter. The head coach likely doesn’t give a hoot about the Bucs’ draft three or four years from now because if the Bucs don’t make the playoffs very soon, Koetter realizes he won’t be around for those drafts. Perhaps, Licht won’t be either?
So Joe wonders if Koetter is in Licht’s ear big time about trading up in the first round to grab a dynamic talent, whether that be Dalvin Cook or Mike Williams or Leonard Fournette?
Joe has seen reader comments from fans recoiling at the thought of trading up and losing valuable future draft picks. That’s understandable.
However, Koetter may not consider being patient, given the looming short window for a Super Bowl run while working under the constant gaze of Team Glazer, which likely wants a playoff berth more than Koetter or Licht.
Joe will guess Koetter doesn’t give two spits about future draft picks. He needs talent — now. The future? He’ll cross that bridge when he gets to it — rather than live and coach in a region where said bridge isn’t located.
It would not shock Joe one bit if Koetter is really pushing Licht to trade up in the draft to secure a difference-maker talent on offense. Again, as Koetter himself famously said in 2015, “The only thing people give a sh!t about are wins.”
And wins will directly lead to the playoffs, provided the Bucs get #WeaponsForWinston.
February 15th, 2017 at 4:34 pm
I see the logic joe. In licht I trust.
February 15th, 2017 at 4:37 pm
Not only that but he may want to load on for a run now while he has smitty on the staff
February 15th, 2017 at 4:38 pm
Getting OJ Howard in the first is growing on me very quickly. What a weapon that would be. Pressure off Brate, help in the running game, 2 TE sets. And Brate suffered a back injury, not good.
Oj howard in the 1st despite me wanting OL and DL help.
Victor bolden, look this guy up. Speed speed speed. WR in the 3rd round.
Get Demarcus Walker in the 2nd.
Get a RB in thr 5th.
Best available everywhere else. Im avaliable for scouting Jason.
February 15th, 2017 at 4:58 pm
Jameis clearly isn’t Tom Brady, but let’s look at the Pats.
They’re #1 receiver is their tight end, Gronk. They have a bevy of solid small white guys as they’re WR core with Edelman being the best, but is still a slot/possession guy. Amendola and Hogan serve similar purposes.
The Bucs have a truly gift #1 WR in Evans. The Bucs have a very dependable receiving TE in Brate. The Bucs also have a dependable slot/possession guy in Humphries (also a small white guy if you want to go there.)
Signing big name free agents at WR or drafting a WR in the 1st do not make a lot of sense to me. We need role WR’s.
Our big FA signings never work out. Last season Ayers and Grimes were HR’s but our big FA signing (Martin) was a bust.
We need solid bodies to fill the #2 WR role. Humphries can be our slot/possession, but drafting in the 1st round our signing a big FA makes no sense. Playing fantasy football in the offseason rarely wins Super Bowls.
We need smart role players. Licht comes from NE and I think he will make the right choices.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:07 pm
The best franchises who already have a QB use their premium picks (top 50) on defensive line, offensive line and defensive backs. The patriots have a deep roster and just won the super bowl. They have not drafted a ball carrier in the first round since Lawernce Maroney in 2006. Thats over 10 years. We should follow that strategy. Yes the bucs need a wr and yes the bucs need a running back. But we should take a corner, safety or defensive lineman because thats what the best teams do.
Two cents
February 15th, 2017 at 5:11 pm
Ludicrous statement based on nothing. 2-4 year window to win the SB. If the Patriots thought the way did they wouldn’t be near the team they’ve been the last 15 years. Rediculous…!!!
February 15th, 2017 at 5:12 pm
NE did not have Gronk in the SB…so there’s that…but otherwise Brady and his “small” smart white receivers got their butts handed to them in that first half…even with all the defensive holding calls. Again it was soooo bad that Brady threw a pick six right before the half.
Make no mistake…Roddy White is correct in wanting to punch Kyle Shanahan in the face for LOSING that SB with horrific play calling in the 2nd half.
Thanks but no thanks on copying the NE offense. #1 as pointed out #3 is not Brady..and #2 I don’t want to have to take no doze watching the Bucs offense!
You guys pick one half when the Falcon defense was gassed and Shanahan went brain dead…what about the first half?
February 15th, 2017 at 5:14 pm
It’s about time somebody has some urgency around here.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:20 pm
J0e has repeatedly spoken of a 2-4 year window. What a bunch of nonsense. How long has the Patriots window been open? Draft well, spend wisely, develop talent, and coach well, PLUS have a franchise QB, and the window is always open.
Our top target in round 1 should be Corey Davis. Later score a solid RB and receiving TE, scatter in a safety and another pass rusher, and the talent base is in good shape.
WR is priority #1. RB is #2, Safety is #3.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:24 pm
The Bucs need every one of their draft picks during the first 4 rds. Pretty much all coaches are on a short leash in today’s nfl, I doubt if any team would be willing to swap 1st rd draft positions this season for future draft picks.
Also in thinking about it what 1st rd RB’s besides Petterson and Elliott are currently making a huge impact in the league and how close did their team come to getting to the super bowl? You defintely need a good running game but it’s up to the GM to put in the time and research to find a Devonte Freeman, David Johnson or Le’veon Bell later in the draft.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:26 pm
Trade up and draft Corey Davis. Watch the tape. Dude is a serious game changer. Has size, speed, great hands. Would be an unreal compliment to Mike Evans. Seriously!! Sign a Robert Woods like 3rd option for Winston in free agency and fill out the remainder of the roster through free agency and your remaining picks. Should be able to get a starter or solid rotational defensive lineman in round 3 OR if Jake Butt is there he could prove to be a hell of a steal once he recovers from his torn ACL. Seem to be quite a few good safety options in free agency as well.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:26 pm
Agree! But we don’t have to invest a 1st round pic for a weapon if the talent isn’t there. I say grab Desean Jackson and put off getting a WR (its a deep draft after all) until the 3rd or 4th. Concentrate on DL, RB, S before that.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:29 pm
Atlanta traded a ton for Julio Jones….if it was for shanahan calling passes instead of runs in the 4th quarter….that trade helps them net a super bowl. Not saying we should trade up but it all depends on free agency. We have a lot of money so free agency is definitely gonna affect us in the draft and help determine if we can afford to give up a few picks in order to draft someone. Honestly look at the success Licht has had with undrafted guys, been pretty good just like the pats. So I’d be all for going up amsmgetting a stud.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:31 pm
That is a horrible way to view free agency in the draft. “Get it now, screw the future. ”
That is a sign of losing franchises. Patriots and Green Bay and Pittsburgh etc. they do what’s best for the team in the long run while plugging in pieces for the now.
There is no reason to trade up for running back. Ever. They need WR and DL in the first couple of rounds, o lineman in the middle rounds and in free agency,
wide receiver and another DL in free agency as well.
RB and TE can be had in middle rounds and/or FA.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:35 pm
StPeteBucsfan
your new England bias is hilarious… you can post any damn combination of BS you want. 6 FREAKING Superbowl’s…. Brady has more Superbowl wins than the bucs have as an organization. excuse me Brady has the same number of Super Bowl Rings as the entire Bucs organization has playoff wins.
You can dislike belicheat and brady but they are the best ever!!!!! Undisputed!
If you are not cheating you are not trying! Results are the only thing that matters all the rest is just BS that happens before the result is decided.
Buccaneers:
All-Time Playoffs: 15 Games, 6-9
Wild Card Round: 6 Games, 1-5
Divisional Round: 5 Games, 3-2
Conference Championship: 3 Games, 1-2
Super Bowl: 1 Games, 1-0
February 15th, 2017 at 5:38 pm
This new guy on “First Take” named will cain is HORRIBLE. I just turned the channel because this guys is so stupid. Lol
February 15th, 2017 at 5:46 pm
Amen.
February 15th, 2017 at 5:58 pm
NFL Not For Long. Better show some guille. Go get ya man Mr. Licht.
February 15th, 2017 at 6:01 pm
We don’t cheat properly.
Therefore we’re not the Pats.
February 15th, 2017 at 6:05 pm
OJ Howard or Njoku–no need to trade up, last season was a challenging schedule with high degree of difficulty meanwhile teams like Titans had it way easy. Most important signing is–has already happened: coach Mike Smith
Josh Reynolds will be there and John Ross in the second round for us(he will drop as he needs shoulder surgery)
Make a move on a wr in fa
Why freak out
February 15th, 2017 at 6:10 pm
@Joe … “It would not shock Joe one bit if Koetter is really pushing Licht to trade up in the draft to secure a difference-maker talent on offense.” Sorry Joe, can’t buy into that logic. When we pick at #19, there’ll be at least one ‘difference-maker’ still available, and probably many more than that. Just on offense, Bucs need a WR, RB AND TE, any of whom could be difference-makers. However, there are no guarantees that whoever we pick will shine, as we’ve seen far too many times. Trading a 1st, 2nd & 4th to move up in the 1st rnd could be the kiss of death for the Bucs … we have far too many priority needs right now. It’ll take every draft pick we have PLUS some intelligent pickups in free agency if we expect to make a run at the playoffs this year.
There’s no question that the Bucs must provide more weapons for Jameis if we expect to compete in the NFC South. But just as important is to strengthen our OLine (I think we can do that through FA) plus we need to strengthen our defense, especially our DLine & Safeties (and yes, we can potentially do much of that also through FA). To me it’s way premature to talk about ‘moving up’ until we’ve seen how free agency plays out. There are plenty of guys out there who could help us in a big way, guys like Desean Jackson, Calais Campbell, Dontari Poe, Tony Jefferson. But right now, ball’s in Jason Licht’s court.
February 15th, 2017 at 6:12 pm
Tmax
Yes I hate the Patriots and Brady. But I’ve given them props where deserved and I’ve evened the score in terms of what they didn’t deserve. They did not “win” the SB’s against Seattle or Atlanta…having said that…they should have won the game against the Giants.
They play in arguably the weakest division in all of football…perhaps the NFC Central is as bad giving the Pack an advantage. They play one game a year to get into the SB…Denver…perhaps Oakland this year…the Steelers…that’s pretty much it.
February 15th, 2017 at 6:18 pm
It makes absolutely no sense to me to trade up for any player.
At 19 there will be plenty of great players available on both sides of the ball and we have plenty of needs.
We have enough cap space to sign a great WR or 2……Perhaps a TE or RB.
Stay firm and pick at 19.
February 15th, 2017 at 6:20 pm
TBBF
Would you be upset if we went the other direction? That is Licht finds the right partner and trades down for more draft picks?
It seems everyday posters come here and say the draft is loaded with RB’s..TE’s
safeties etc. If the draft is “loaded” why not get more picks?
February 15th, 2017 at 6:39 pm
Just dont draft a god damn kicker
February 15th, 2017 at 6:40 pm
Since the better a team plays the less value is given to team’s draft picks by picking lower in each round, I like trading up this year. It’s clear the Bucs are on the rise with Licht & Koetter running the show, therefore their future draft picks likely won’t be ranked near as high as they are right now, so there’s more value to entice another team.
Think about it a year later, the Bucs sat still with the 11th pick and took VHIII. With hindsight being 20/20 vision, would the Bucs like to go back and take Ezekiel Elliott or Joey Bosa, maybe even Ramsey?
If L&K determine they need a that top-ten pick with star-type potential to either complement Winston or move the defense to elite status, then they should go do it, whether it be at RB, WR, TE or DE.
February 15th, 2017 at 6:55 pm
True the only thing people care about is wins. But lose every year in the playoffs and people won’t care anymore.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:00 pm
@ St. Pete
I wouldn’t be upset at all….I think trading down always presents a good option….if there is a partner and you have several players still available, do it.
I don’t like the idea of trading out of the first round however, because you get the 5th year option with a first round pick.
To me, a trade up is usually a riskier proposition.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:04 pm
For my money when Fameis reaches his prime losing every year in playoffs won’t hardly be in the equation.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:04 pm
No need to trade up Joe.
There simply too many teams that have Quarterback, edge rusher, or defensive back as their top need.
A dynamic playmaker will fall to 19. Whether its McCaffery, or Howard, or Davis. One of them will be there.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:07 pm
I read an article today Blake that lead to an eagles board. They seem to be clamoring for either Davis or one of these highly rated CBs.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:08 pm
Joseph Mamma
that’s all Dungy did in the playoffs was loose yet people still seem to give him far more credit than he actually earned or accomplished. it’s a travesty a coach with a career losing playoff record is in the hall of fame. The legend of dungy is far greater than his actual accomplishments.
Stpete
all that is fine and dandy but at the end of the day no one remembers anything but the rings on their fingers.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:09 pm
The article was”should they draft Dalvin Cook” most wanna see a corner come off the board with they’re first pick.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:10 pm
Trade up for cook. throw in a pick for next year and move the ice cream man to dallas… running game fixed and the leader of the losing culture is some other teams problem.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:12 pm
@CBF
I do not miss the picks you mentioned at all. Zeke is a good player…but he ran behind an OL full of first round picks. I wouldn’t trade Noah for Bosa. If he heals totally Noah is going to blow up this year. Ramsey…meh. VHG is going to be good for a long time if he stays healthy. HE’s not afraid to tackle and I hope Smitty lets him blitz this year ala Ronde Barber.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:13 pm
While we’re on the subject of drafting playmakers, I’m really starting to warm up to Christian McCaffrey. His genes are off the charts. His father a 3 time superbowl winning Wide Receiver, and an Olympian for a mother.
And the kid is a supremely gifted athlete. He has off the charts short area quickness and agility. Extremely intelligent ( he goes to freaking stnaford ), dedicated worker ( look at the change in his body from his sophmore to junior year ), and his hands/ playnaking ability in space are off the charts.
Whether we draft him to be our Rb 1, or convert him to reciver, I think it would be a good pick.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:18 pm
Jesus i just realized how many times i wrote off the charts in that last comment. Im way too baked. 😀
February 15th, 2017 at 7:23 pm
Jason Licht totally blew it last season. Relying on old aging ,injury prone vets like VJAX and Murph to be our 2-3 WRs. And then to make matters worse he refused to claim WR Taylor Gabriel off waivers, after the Browns waive him. He drafted Noah Spence in the 2nd round, when WR Michael Thomas was available. Then he put the icing on the cake, by trading up to draft a Kicker. I have been a Buc fan since the beginning in 1975, when Tom McEwen convinced Art Rooney and the NFL to award Tampa a franchise. Jason Licht need to correct his wrong from 2016, by having a strong draft this season. This is a deep draft with quality football players, we should come away from the draft with 4-5 impact players. I’m pulling for Licht to get the job done, the ball is in his hands, and only his. The bottom line is, get Coach Koetter the players he need to get this team to the playoffs.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:34 pm
Sup everyone…
I’ve read boy half the comments, I’ll finish after this post lol. But damn. I want weapons as bad… Well no not as bad. BUILD THE WALL!!!!!!!! No team can win without solid line play
#TRENCHWARFARE
Give #3 a line…
Give #58 a line…
February 15th, 2017 at 7:39 pm
I wanted Laremy Tunsil in the 1st round last season. But it’s all on Jason Licht, wishful thinking is only an Illusion.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:46 pm
Blake I think ya guy McCaffery gone be special in the league. Something about that guy.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:50 pm
Tmax
Why Dallas?
February 15th, 2017 at 7:50 pm
Nole
Yea! Special teams.
February 15th, 2017 at 7:59 pm
Blake
I’m with ya on two counts…I like McCaffery and like you I think genes are important and he has them on both sides of his family. In addition kids that grow up around famous athlete parents are not awed by the big stage. The NFL to them is just normal business.
Secondly…if you’re baked dude I’m envious…been on the wagon since Jan 1st..already lost 15lbs…in shape playing tennis…I gotta wait until summer when I head to Michigan to get “baked”…and hey it’s legal there. 🙂
My son and I like that term…”baked” so well that we labeled the side of my house which is fenced in and private…the bakery. I don’t know for sure but I suspect NOSBOS would approve as well.
February 15th, 2017 at 8:01 pm
Wow…..if Aguayo starts kicking well next year and Noah blows up after he heals…some of you guys in the words of the late Ricky Ricardo are going to have some ‘splainin’ to do.
February 15th, 2017 at 8:21 pm
Survey says- correct for 4000 Pete.
February 15th, 2017 at 8:22 pm
☺DB I hear ya..
February 15th, 2017 at 8:24 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if Coach K not buggin Jason Licht right now. Like check this out Jason I need you to get on that phone and holla at some of your homies around the league and get this deal done sooner than later..
February 15th, 2017 at 8:43 pm
The thing that I question is we knew we need receivers last year.
And thought Licht would address it and he didn’t.
February 15th, 2017 at 8:46 pm
We needed receivers last year, but our defense was historically bad in 2015 lol. The entire defense was a bigger need than WR last year. Especially since they thought that V-Jax and Murphy were going to be back and healthy.
February 15th, 2017 at 8:53 pm
@NOSBOS
Fish Smithson. Look him up he is a ballhawking FS that can be had in the later rounds. Plus he’s got a great name lol
February 15th, 2017 at 8:55 pm
I don’t know how NFL front offices are viewing Corey Davis. Is he a top 10 pick? He looks worthy of our slot. If he gets past 13/14, it might be time to hop up and grab him if the compensation isn’t too painful. That guy opposite Evans would give us some lethality (provided we also get the running game rolling).
February 15th, 2017 at 9:12 pm
DB55
Why Dallas … Two reasons. I hate Dallas and he would infect a winner and reduce them to special seasons versus successful seasons
February 15th, 2017 at 9:13 pm
I have been saying for a while now that the team needs to be all in on this draft. I think the team should trade our 2018 and 2019 1,4,5,6, and 7 round picks to get the players we need this year. Some will say I’m crazy but everyone sees that the Bucs are trending up. This means our future picks will be worth less than this years picks. Also the addition of compensatory picks means that picks in the late fourth round now will be players who would have been taken in the fifth round in years prior.
February 15th, 2017 at 9:32 pm
I agree that this offseason is crucial UsfBuc. But that is a crazy idea dude. No Gm in their right mind would ever trade away the future of the franchise for a few extra picks in one draft.
February 15th, 2017 at 9:37 pm
stud OT available thru FA ryan clady, go get him build the wall then try for COOK or stud WR…. get OL help now
February 15th, 2017 at 9:41 pm
Can’t be much of a stud LT if he’s a free agent. There are 2 things in the NFL that never hit the open market. Stud LTs and pass rushers. Just sayin.
February 15th, 2017 at 9:46 pm
I hate to throw stuff against the wall, but tonight I am going to brainstorm a little and suggest a new approach to “Get Weapons for Jameis.” Let’s shift gears and ask Jameis who he wants. He watches film and has played against and with a lot draft and free agent talent. Surely the man must have an opinion. I can’t help but think he has a little wish list tucked away up there with all the X’s and O”s. I would like to think that which round or how much should we pay in FA would not influence his decision. He knows who can catch the ball, who can get YAC, who’s a team leader, and who will sacrifice their bodies to protect him. Everyday I read articles and post that argue who some talking head or couch potato thinks would help the Buc’s. Why not ask America’s best what he thinks?
February 15th, 2017 at 9:51 pm
“Think about it a year later, the Bucs sat still with the 11th pick and took VHIII. With hindsight being 20/20 vision, would the Bucs like to go back and take Ezekiel Elliott or Joey Bosa, maybe even Ramsey?”
…………………..
UM…….Not trying to completely embarrass you but How the Heck would Joey Bosa be a better pick? and Zeke would have been unnoticed behind our OL. Jalen Ramsey made Zero difference on the Jags so I am not sure what your actual message is when VH3 started all 16 games for us and is well on his way to being a Solid NFL starter for years to come if not a star.
February 15th, 2017 at 9:54 pm
USF…………That is some Straight up Visionary $hit there! I will give that some more thought and get back to you on your proposal! 🙂
February 15th, 2017 at 10:30 pm
Blake it is a little crazy and it hinges on a very critical point. How good is our player evaluation? If we can hit multiple times in the first and find more solid players in the second and third then we are good. If we miss on the guys in the first then it will have busted us for two years in the draft. How many players are we really short from being a playoff team?
February 15th, 2017 at 10:38 pm
Joe, can you please explain further why the bucs only have a 2-4 yr window to win the superbowl? As far as i see it, if licht continues to draft well, the window should stay open for many years to come (as long as Jameis becomes the QB we all expect him to be) the only reason that window would shorten up is if the bucs did do something foolish to jeopardize their future drafts. Such as trading the farm for 1 guy. Trading up in the first round can be justified to get a franchise QB. They are rare to find, heck there are only 10-15 in the NFL any given season. Good or great RBs and WRs? They can be found all over the NFL.
Imagine instead of drafting Mike Evans the bucs decided to go all in on Sammy Watkins, a guy projected to be the next megatron. Sounds great right? We get an absolute monster of a wr, and all it costs us is next years first round pick. Imagine where the bucs would be if we did that… no Jameis Winston. And the franchise set back another 10 years.
I dont care if the guy people want to trade up for is the next julio jones or walter peyton. Because the guy we drafted if we had stayed might be better! And the draft pick we didnt trade might also be better. The bucs should not be desperate to move up. We are not 1 piece away from the superbowl. We need a lot more depth to get to a serious super bowl run. We need a RB, 2 or 3 WRs, a DT or 2. A DE or 2, a SAM LB, safety, And at least 2 o lineman upgrades. So please tell me how trading two 1st round picks and two second round picks helps us reach our goal. This team might seem close but we are still far away from a superbowl win. If the goal was to skmply make the playoffs, sure go trade the next 3 first rounds to get 1 player. It might open that 2 yr superbowl window, but it will shut any chance of prolonged success
February 15th, 2017 at 10:38 pm
@dusty is Clady the lineman that everyone has always said had huge potential but he misses games every year to injury?
February 15th, 2017 at 10:56 pm
Thank you SB.
Also Blake think about those comp picks and where that puts our actual fourth round pick next year. If we are a playoff team we will be picking later in the draft. Let’s say we make it to the wild card game and lose. That will put us picking at 22nd or 23rd in the 4th round. Add in the nine comp picks at the end of round three and it’s the same as having the last or second to last pick in the fourth round. If we go deep into the playoffs our fourth round pick is now the same as a fifth round pick prior to inclusion of the comp picks.
Statistically the further you get into the draft the less likely you are to draft a player that works out. It used to be that you could find backups in the fourth and anything after that the GMs were basically crossing their fingers. Now I would argue that the comp picks have made everything from the middle of the fourth round on a hope and a prayer.
Now also think about where the team is. ME is going to be looking for a contract extension along with some other guys like Kwon and Marpet. A solid draft and FA this year would give us everything we needed to give us two really good shots at deep playoffs runs while Winston is under his rookie contract. Once that contract comes due we will still have a few years left on the rookie contracts from the draft this year before we have to resign them.
This is the right move to build the team long term. They just have to hit on the three first round picks if they can find a trade partner. Also I’m not really wanting to give up our second and third round picks so our ability to trade up would be limited.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:11 pm
Bro. Im telling you, that idea s straight up looney. So much so i feel a little silly even arguing against it.
Draft picks are the blood of any nfl team.
To trade away 2 full years worth of them away to get 2 more picks in the first round picks would be catastrophicly bad.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:13 pm
We aren’t looking for HOFers with every pick but only 49 of the 310 players in each HOF were drafted in the fourth round or later. Also consider that the average number of years in the NFL goes down with each round. Dan Vitale didn’t even make the team last year.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:17 pm
Blake reread my post I didn’t say to trade away two full years. The only picks you are losing are statistically worthless picks. You don’t lose the first round picks because you are getting first round picks for them.
You have to be able to understand that our future picks are worth less to us, right? If you don’t get that point then my position won’t make sense. You also have to understand that late round picks are basically no different than an UDFA.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:20 pm
Also you have to understand that late round picks have even less value after the inclusion of comp picks. Please realize that there are 32 comp picks which means the players drafted in the seventh round this year are guys who would have gone undrafted if not for comp picks being added.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:31 pm
Trading up big like USF is saying is future suicide. And could result in cap hell. If we trade away our picks, that means we will end up needing to sign free agents to fill holes. Free agents are more expensive than rookies. Good teams use draft picks to build their team for sustained success. You can add a free agent here and there to push your team further. But you can’t sustain building through free agency, it is too expensive. You will get yourself in cap hell, and end up cutting valuable players, or not being able to re sign player you want to keep.
IMO stay the course, practice patience. We can get a very good player at 19. Besides the draft is mostly a crap shoot. You hope and pray the player works out, but more end up busts than pro bowlers. If we trade up for a guy and he becomes a bust… that sets the franchise back years. Trading 4 premium picks for 1 guy. No thanks. The risk is not worth the reward. You can’t win games in the NFL with 1 guy. This 1 or 2 rookies will not push us into the Super Bowl. We have a lot more holes than that.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:37 pm
I would vote McCaffrey and I don’t disagree with Blake but we already have too many white guys on the team. Get Dalvin. Just do it.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:38 pm
Tom brady and Antonio brown 6th round picks. Your argument is invalid. Also you only get complimentary draft picks for losing players in free agency to my knowledge.
You cannot build a dynasty by trade away your 1,4,5,6,7 round picks for 2 years.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:39 pm
Trubucfan explain to me how a 7th round pick is premium. I’m not going to take the time to look up our FAs but we don’t have a single 7th round pick on our roster currently.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:39 pm
Actually USF’s plan is Brilliance IF we were to hit it ALL corectly!
For that though we may need some Marty McFly action and get our hands on that Sports Almanac.
The only real problem with that scenario is if we sign 10 stars this yr we can’t possibly pay all 10 of em in 4 yrs.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:40 pm
Two players out of hundreds doesn’t invalidate an argument Blake.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:43 pm
So for 2 straight years we should only have a 2nd and 3rd round pick….
I do like the way licht uses later round picks to move up in earlier rounds. But to give up picks to the point you have 2 left is just stupid. I understand that we should be better and that means we will end up with later draft picks in the future. But it all depends on who we trade with and where. If we are trading our 2018 1st round pick to draft 30th overall in 2017. We are probably losing value. Because we probably won’t be picking 30th in 2018. If we traded our 2018 1st pick to draft at #10 overall, then that is probably great value. But it would also cost us a lot more than 1 first round pick to do that. In theory you might have a good idea, but realistically it isn’t even plausible. Unless you can give me a scenario where it would make sense, because it really doesn’t to me right now.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:43 pm
Those are the 2 most striking recent examples. Jay Ajayi and Jorden Howard both 5th round picks. Your argument is invalid.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:46 pm
What exactly do you think you would get in return for our 2018 7th round pick? Move up 3 spots for our 2017 6th round pick? Lol.
Like you said 7th round picks are basically useless. What exactly is your grand master plan to turn value from a 7th round pick.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:46 pm
You been hitting the sauce too hard SB. Trading away that many picks for 2 more 1st round pick this year would be pure lanacy.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:49 pm
Also Blake based on our roster I would argue that free agency is the life blood of a team. And so you don’t fall back on the Patriots and say they build through the draft exclusively, 38 of their 70 players were acquired through trades or FA. That’s over half of their players.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:50 pm
The numbers back me Blake just admit it.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:53 pm
Trubucfan umm potentially enough added value to pry a late first round pick from a team inconjunction with a future first. Tell me would you really rather have Ryan Smith, Dan Vitale and Devonte Bond over OJ Howard? Which one of those players potentially makes the biggest impact?
February 15th, 2017 at 11:53 pm
Like I said earlier, swapping picks and using some later picks to move up in earlier rounds is all fine and dandy. But you can’t take 3 drafts and turn it into 1. I would like to hear how you would use all those picks to boost this years draft. Hypothetically speaking are you trying to trade 2018’s 5, 6, and 7 for a 2017 4th rounder? How exactly do you see it playing out in your head?
February 15th, 2017 at 11:56 pm
Blake_Bucsfan Says:
February 15th, 2017 at 11:46 pm
You been hitting the sauce too hard SB. Trading away that many picks for 2 more 1st round pick this year would be pure lanacy.
……………
Read more carefully Blake.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:57 pm
Lunacy*
February 15th, 2017 at 11:57 pm
If the Bucs wanted to land Dalvin Cook they would have to trade up for him which I’m not a huge fan of. The scenario I’m looking at is we pick at 19 and say we take Charles Harris but OJ Howard is also available. I think the Bucs should trade ( if they can) next years first and a combination of late round picks to trade back into the first to get Howard. He would far outweigh any player we would likely take in the later rounds.
February 15th, 2017 at 11:58 pm
So you want to trade a 2018 1, 4, 5, 6, and 7 for a 2017 first rounder. And same thing for 2019. So then we have three 2017 first round picks.
Is that what I’m hearing?
February 16th, 2017 at 12:00 am
I’m of the mindset that we are just a few pieces away from having a team that can make deep playoff runs for the next few years. We increase the likelihood of that if we can stack talent in this draft.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:00 am
Lol the numbers absolutely do not support you. The only trade i can think of that even comes close to your proposed one would be the ricky williams trade. And that blew up so hard in Mike Ditkas face that he never got another Job coaching.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:02 am
If that’s what it takes and that fills are holes. I don’t think it would take all of them though we would probably only have to use two late round picks with a future first to trade into say the 25th pick this year.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:04 am
And yeah my bad SB homie. Not gonna lie I didnt read past it would be brilliant if we hit. Lol sorry bout that bro.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:07 am
Blake please explain to me how swapping a first and say a fourth and fifth round pick for a first would break the team. A first for a first and then statistically two players that you hope never hit the field in extended roles. You understand that players like Kwon in the fourth are homeruns right? GMs don’t hit day three of the draft rubbing their hands together thinking of the Hall of Fame players they are about to draft.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:08 am
We are ALL good homie.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:10 am
Yes, Howard > devonte bond. But you are also giving up a first rounder too. An unknown first rounder. Someone who could be better than Howard. Unless you are hardcore into college ball, it is impossible to predict the 2018 draft at this point. I don’t know how well stacked this years draft is. Or how next years draft is projected to be. But I am not that desperate to go all in on 1 draft. I don’t see the reason to. We have salary cap space to go shopping in free agency. Buy whatever players you want. no need to do something stupid with draft picks.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:11 am
Blake you are so far off base on the Ricky Williams trade that you probably need to go to sleep. Dirks traded two firsts, two thirds, and his 4-7.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:11 am
Ditka
February 16th, 2017 at 12:13 am
And Usf your Idea is a straight up pipe dream.
Everyone knows by now how I feel about trading up for Cook. But that would be 100 times more reasonable than your proposition.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:14 am
Ditka
February 16th, 2017 at 12:15 am
Ditka was a Mean Mo Fo.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:17 am
I also think you under estimate what it would take to trade 1st round picks like that. Teams would want more than some useless late round picks to wait an entire year to draft a 1st rounder. It would likely take a 1st and 2 seconds to do that.
You are thinking 2018’s 1, 5, and 6 for a 2017 first.
In reality, a 2017 first for 2017 2 and 4, 2018 1, and 2.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:18 am
Trubucfan I use Howard as the example because that is the type of player I would be trading back into the first for. We have to see how he is graded at the combine but right now they are talking about him being one of the best TE prospects in years. I’ve even read an article saying he could have a Gronk like impact on an offense.
Beyond that, if we grade a guy as a first round talent it doesn’t matter what year we draft if our evaluation is solid. Could another guy come out next year that is better sure but our need would already be filled. What if a guy next year is tabbed as the next Manning? Do we regret drafting Winston?
February 16th, 2017 at 12:21 am
I think the Njoku is a Howard Clone so our Value pick at 19 gets better when you view it though ‘non rose colored’ glasses.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:26 am
I just don’t think a team gives up there first for next years scraps. It takes a lot to give up first round picks. More than you give teams credit for.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:27 am
Trubucfan have you looked at the draft trade chart? If you haven’t go look at it. Sports writers swear that teams go by that chart. The difficult part to know is how a team would value our future first. From my reading generally teams place the same value on it as your current pick. So if that’s true then our pick this year is worth 875 points. Every pick after us is worth less and less. So I propose seeking a trade around our pick for a future first and late round picks to make it happen. It depends on the team but if there is a team that feels they are in a good spot now but they want extra picks next year then that’s our trade partner.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:30 am
Have many times. In short, very soon, Bucs won’t have cap space due to many good players needing to be paid and some good or decent players may be salary cap casualties.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:31 am
If you think the Patriots are the norm, the one typing the above comment is the one who is — proper spelling here — ridiculous.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:36 am
There are far to many ‘burns’ that just occurred in the Winter.
Or Spring depending on where your are.
Go Joe!
February 16th, 2017 at 12:36 am
But joe, if we drafting well, we are replacing expensive veterans with cheap rookies. In the mold of the packers or patriots, cutting loose of an expensive player doesn’t always mean you are significantly down grading the position. If the GM planned it out well he has a capable back up to replace him and keep the train moving. This is an insanely hard thing to do, but I think you would agree with me, that Licht has done a pretty good job so far in his drafts, and I hope him and his scouting department only get better.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:42 am
As fans that want to pretend we are Licht, how do we even responsibly view our team being as FA hasn’t begun and players haven’t had a chance to blow up the combine?
Maybe just me but I use this as a metric
February 16th, 2017 at 12:44 am
Trubucfan a great example of the type of trade I would be for is the 49ers trade with the Pats in 2007. The 49ers traded a future first and fourth for the Pats pick at 28 that year. The 49ers sucked so the pick they traded ended up being a number 7 pick but that is the type of pick I would go for knowing the Bucs are trending upwards.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:45 am
USF, sure the face value might be good to go, but like I said, teams will charge a hefty premium to drop an entire year. The number of teams willing to do that is probably zero. A kings ransom might be the only way to convince a team to do it. Especially when you are dealing with late picking teams. Teams that are close, that only need a couple pieces. It would be a lot harder for them to totally trade away a first pick without getting a hefty return.
Spread sheets can give you a glimpse, but a team has to be willing to accept that value. Likely a team is more like a scalper than an even face value trade partner.
February 16th, 2017 at 12:57 am
USF, you said it, the 9ers sucked. The pats predicted they would get a top 10 pick in return for a 28th overall pick. They moved from 28 to 7th. That value is incredible. It usually takes a kings ransom to make that type of move. But since the 9ers were desperate they took the loss in value to go all in.
If teams trade based on current draft position, then there is not as much value in the 19th spot compared to 7th. Meaning teams will ask for higher secondary picks to sweeten the deal. Maybe you get the pats to do it again. But not many other teams, if any, would pull a move like that.
February 16th, 2017 at 3:26 am
I want Corey Davis. If he’s available at 17, we need to trade up to jump the Titans because they will almost undoubtably take him in front of us. Maybe the Redskins would go down two spots for a fourth. They don’t share many needs with the Titans, so they might not have to worry about missing out on someone.
That’s about the only situation in which I would trade up.
February 16th, 2017 at 3:58 am
@SCBucsFan
Only problem with that idea is if Washington loses both Jackson and Garcon then they can be interested in Davis at 17
February 16th, 2017 at 4:17 am
@USFBUC
That trade idea is absolutely ridiculous. I think you’ve been hitting the simulators too hard lol.
February 16th, 2017 at 6:44 am
Is there a Julio Jones difference maker out there, naw, don’t think so, so you don’t move up, not in the first.
February 16th, 2017 at 7:27 am
Ehh that 49ers team wasn’t that bad they went 7-9 to get the 7th pick in the draft that year.
February 16th, 2017 at 7:28 am
Rrsrq I think that’s very difficult to tell right now man. That’s part of the reason I talked about seeing how players graded out.
February 16th, 2017 at 8:30 am
@Joeypoppems I think everyone who is writing it off without any kind of valid argument lacks vision and should maybe be a little more optimistic in life.
@Trubucfan you are the only detractor from my idea that actually makes a valid argument about the willingness of a team to trade that first round pick. Your point kind of goes without saying. We would obviously need to have a trade partner to make this happen. Personally I don’t think it’s impossible.
We need to find a trade partner, the players have to be players that fill a need, and ideally we execute the trade just using a future first with a few later round picks. That said if we can pull this off and land say Davis and Howard in the late first round we should certainly make the move.
February 16th, 2017 at 8:33 am
Julio was very good at bama to say you could tell he would be as dynamic as he has become since entering the NFL would be pushing. I watched a lot of Julio while in school can’t quite say this current guy there. I mean Atl actually went into that draft wanting AJ Green.
February 16th, 2017 at 8:35 am
Idea sound good to me USF. Sometimes that what it takes. Vision.
February 16th, 2017 at 8:38 am
Its simple if you ask me. We making the playoffs next season. The value of all those picks will diminish going forward. Many talk in opposition as if we will drafting top ten for the next few years. I highly doubt that.
February 16th, 2017 at 8:52 am
I dont see how me thinking a team that wants to build through the draft should not trade most of their future picks to get 2 players this year equates to me not being optimistic in life in general makes any sense, but judge however you would like.
February 16th, 2017 at 8:54 am
@Nosbos
Its not about where we will be picking in the order. Jason Licht wants to build through the draft and you cant do that if you dont have picks. Has nothing to do with picking in the top 10 or last in each round.
February 16th, 2017 at 8:55 am
And selling the future to get picks now is the opposite of vision. Thats a near-sighted way to build a team.
February 16th, 2017 at 9:14 am
We are just a few players away from one and done in the playoffs,maybe.The goal is get deep in the playoffs,We still need a very good RB,TE,and WR to
keep up with the better offenses in the league.That doesn’t include upgrades or depth to O line,D line and our bridge players that are short term fixes.
Use those picks wisely,Jason.
February 16th, 2017 at 9:30 am
Yeah, all i know is that the best gm in football today uses a strategy completely opposite to what you are proposing.
If your idea was so visionary people would be using it. But no gm does stupid crap like that.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:06 am
I don’t see this happening, but if it does I’ve decided to trust Licht when it comes to the draft.
But I also think it is way too soon to make draft predictions. We don’t even know if WR or RB will still be a need when the draft comes along.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:07 am
I might also point out…that the Glazers and Jason Licht have stated repeatedly that they prefer to build and develop by drafting players. They put a premium on picks.