The Number That Killed: Six
December 25th, 2016
Mark Ingram and Saints ground game doomed the Bucs.
Six was anything but a lucky number for the Bucs last night.
Bucs coach Dirk Koetter always talks about explosive plays. Well, explosive plays by the Saints likely killed the playoff hopes of the Bucs.
Data-driven Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times dives deep into the numbers.
Explosive plays executed by the Saints [six]: Bucs coach Dirk Koetter defines explosive plays as passes of at least 16 yards and runs of at least 12 yards. New Orleans scored points on every drive in which it executed an explosive play.
It was those explosive plays that were beautifully set up by the Saints ground game that did the trick. The Saints awfully exposed the soft interior of the Bucs’ rush defense. Mark Ingram ran 18 times for 90 yards. He also scored two touchdowns.
When a run game is that effective and you have a surgeon like Drew Brees as your quarterback, the defense is going to have a long day.
And it did.
December 25th, 2016 at 10:07 am
The explosive 3rd down passes is what really hurt. As much as I want us to draft more pass rush, the key to our future rests on #3. I think we should draft O Line and WR with our first 4 draft picks. Let’s not do to Winston what the Texans did with Carr. I’d rather win or lose games 31-30 than hurt the development of Winston. Fixing the pass rush is important, but not more important than giving Winston every opportunity to succeed. After that is addressed, then we can build a dominant defense.
December 25th, 2016 at 10:09 am
I’m hoping we can keep Gholston and pick up a good pass rushing DE in FA. Anyone know who is a FA at DE this off-season?
December 25th, 2016 at 10:16 am
Soft interior?
Hmmm… are you calling out McCoy Joe?
December 25th, 2016 at 10:16 am
Who will Koetter blame this week?
December 25th, 2016 at 10:17 am
We need a DT!!!!!!! A big run stuffing DT to eat up lineman. Poe Poe Poe Poe
December 25th, 2016 at 10:23 am
I am telling you guys the key to turning this team into a REAL contender is getting something for McCoy via trade and build the talent from his money and draft picks we get from him. You can’t have both a speed based DT AND small speed linebackers. That has proven to be a major weakness in this defense and how many great teams have a DT as their highest paid defender? Answer none!
December 25th, 2016 at 10:25 am
The key to this franchises future is McCoy and of course that is only in the Herchel Walker sense.
December 25th, 2016 at 10:33 am
Don’t need to trade McCoy but we need size. A guy like Poe to play next to McCoy would help eberyone. And go get a big strong side linebacker. Smith is big but he’s also 34. A dude who is 250-260 who can play strong side backer and stiff the run would be great.
December 25th, 2016 at 10:35 am
Ndog I’ve been saying the exact same thing for years. It’s no knock on McCoy for me because I like him but I think his trade value may be worth more to the team than his future value.
December 25th, 2016 at 10:48 am
This is why I laugh when I hear HOF and McCoy’s name. He is simply not HOF…very good…not HOF.
Saints exposed a very soft (light weight) front 7 yesterday. Go look at NE and the rest of the playoff teams…big n greasy up front. I would love to hear what really happened on the coaches decision…sounds like a 1 BUC blowup.
As I stated earlier this week, #3 has a very long long way to go to being a playoff QB. He was awful again and inaccuracy will equal losses against the top 10 teams in the NFL. He really needs to work on his foot work and reading D ability! Holy spit he looked bad at times. Marpet had his worst game of the year at the wrong time too, which didnt help but was not sole reason for problems.
Until next season—-this one is done.
December 25th, 2016 at 10:59 am
I think McCoy is talented and I wouldn’t kick him off the team but he’s simply not a difference maker.
He’s not a leader and he disappears 9/10 times when needed the most.
He gave another horrid pregame speech yesterday and the defense came our flat.
Same goes for Lavonte David, who I think is mentally weak. You can see it on his face when adversity strikes, he’s not going to overcome.
The Bucs can miss the playoffs without these guys too.
They should put McCoy on the trade market. I just don’t see this guy ever making the kind of impact to equal the resources he consumes. A change of scenery would probably be good for him as well.
I think this season has shown promise but they’ve got a long road ahead.
They MUST beat the f**king Panthers next week.
They CANNOT lose three straight to end the season 8-8. That would be a disaster.
Go Bucs!
December 25th, 2016 at 11:01 am
LightningBuc…when has Koetter ever blamed anyone other than himself for anything. When has he ever thrown another coach or player under the bus? Even with benching Martin, he didn’t say Martin isn’t producing or the O line is hosing the run game. He said “coach’s decision” and dimwits still come out and say he’s blaming others. Wow.
December 25th, 2016 at 11:05 am
Stop me if I’m wrong but Koetter unequivocally told the Defense he didn’t trust them when he went for the onside kick with three time outs plus the two minute warning which is basically another time out.
I thought that was the worst call of the game.
December 25th, 2016 at 11:12 am
I may be wrong but I thought when we attempted onside kick it was already at the 2 min warning and we had 2 timeouts. I was at a holiday party and was not real close to the tv so my eyes may have deceived me. Happy Holidays everyone!
December 25th, 2016 at 11:14 am
In the words of they immortal ASJ the Bucs took a huge s$!@! Last night.
December 25th, 2016 at 11:24 am
Lets face it we are not playoff ready!!!!
Martino cut. Reedy cut.
martin trade. 3-4 round pick.
Payton camp body
Sims camp body.
Hawley release.
Dotson camp body.
Evan smith. Release
Marpet center!!
New big nasty right guard!!
Sweezy hope he can play again!!
New big nasty left guard!!!
Pamphile right tackle!!!!
First round!! Best wide reciever
Second round.. best d tackle
Third round.. best corner back.
Forth round best blocking tight end!!!
Fifth round best center!!
Free agents?? I wont even bother.. All i want for christmas is a eric berry
Or london collins or a sean taylor!!!!!! And two defensive ends that are productive year after year after year
December 25th, 2016 at 11:37 am
We can still make the playoffs, if we get lucky. To Get to a 9-7 Tiebreaker with Green Bay for Wild Card Spot #2, the Bucs need these results:
Dallas over Detroit on Monday Night, Week 16
Tampa Bay over Carolina, Week 17
New York Giants over Washington, Week 17
Detroit over Green Bay, Week 17
To Win the Resulting 9-7 Tiebreaker with Green Bay, the Bucs need these results:
Kansas City over Denver, Sunday Night, Week 16
San Francisco over Seattle, Week 17
Indianapolis over Jacksonville, Week 17
Dallas over Philadelphia, Week 17
Tennessee over Houston, Week 17
December 25th, 2016 at 11:43 am
Saying Jameis makes bad choices is fair bUT for those saying he is accurate what are you watching? Please show me more than two throws yesterday that were inaccurate? Again some horrible decisions but inaccurate mean poor ball lacation which was not a problem yeasterday.
December 25th, 2016 at 11:45 am
SB, I didn’t like the onside call at all. There is more pressure on the Saints to get a first down at thier 25 than our 45. If they do have to punt from there they can pin us deep. If they punt from their 30 or so, we could get field position or a good return.
December 25th, 2016 at 11:54 am
The Saints were ready fot us. IN Their stadium, we had to play lights out. Brees is a mother playing at home. Only a good team could have whipped th em there. I did not pick our Bucs in my football pool to beat the Saints. I just knew. Of course, I won my pool last week. 850 big smackers!! Will have to do some research/stats on the Panthers first, But it does not look like I’m picking them to beat Carolina at home either. I’ll know definitely by Thursday though. 8-8 is a great start for us though.
December 25th, 2016 at 11:56 am
I have been saying for a good long time that even though I like McCoy, trading him for 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd while he still has value would fill nearly every hole on the team, including the one created by trading him.
He doesn’t have a ridiculous contract that prevents a trade, and to make room for him money-wise, a team might give up a star WR in place of the second rounder or the second first rounder.
Doing it for just the picks would mean we’d have 2 firsts and 2 seconds in this coming draft. Get his replacement and a DE IN ROUND 1, then OL and WR in round 2. Then TE in round 3.
Team fixed. All with one trade.
December 25th, 2016 at 12:01 pm
We’re NOT making the playoffs this year…and I’m fine with that. Draft position is more important THIS year. We will have at least 8 wins, which was my expectation for the year.
I’ve always said we need one more off season to finish putting the proper pieces together.
The culture is already changing. We just need a tiny bit more patience.
December 25th, 2016 at 12:18 pm
I share Buccaneer Bonzai’s optimism. There was a poll at the beginning of the season asking the most likely record at the end of the year, and as I recall, most agreed that it would be 7-9 or 8-8. The Bucs have a shot at 9-7, a winning record and exceeding expectations. That being said, we all know that there are needs across the board. The Bucs need to stockpile draft picks and be more strategic on bringing in free agents. I wouldn’t support trading McCoy, although given what just happened yesterday, Doug Martin might be a more likely candidate. It sure would be nice having a 1-2 punch at running back, like what they have at Tennessee, but that sure didn’t help them against the Jags yesterday.
December 25th, 2016 at 12:19 pm
Bonzai, I get what you’re saying, but if McCoy isn’t a game changer, what team would give us 2 1sts, let alone also a 2nd and a 3rd. With his age, contract and injury history, 1 1st by itself would be a major coup.
December 25th, 2016 at 12:22 pm
You know the bucs aren’t that far away of being a very good team.
..my opinion is beside new England and Brady (smile) the bucs are capable of beating any team in the league ..we’ve seen flashes of this..my opinion is and opinions are like rear ends everybody has one..if the bucs work on consistency. .Jamis cut down on interceptions as we’ve seen he can do when he stop trying to force the ball. .get some D line help to put more pressure on qbs bucs will be in the playoffs. ..as for now I am not heavyly criticizing the team. but come next year week 16 and this team has missed the playoffs again I thing that’s the time to criticize
December 25th, 2016 at 12:24 pm
Chris, I though we had a better tie breaker chance over Detroit if they lose out and Green Bay won the division?
December 25th, 2016 at 12:29 pm
NDOG-
Were you getting a beer when he threw the ball up for an INT to start the second half? It looked like an end of the game hail mary. He had 2 INTs and should have been 3 if not the Saints bad CBs. He was struggling to throw spirals (bad feet), which should be easy-automatic unless D line hits him. When Brate got hurt, that messed #3 rhythm on offense to make matters worse. I get where your coming from but 7-12 on 3rd down is not going to cut it in week 16 if you are serious about making the playoffs. 277 yards passing when you’re matched up against Brees does not equal a win either.
I agree 1000% with those saying GMC needs help on that line….losing Gholston was HUGE last week!
This team has made progress from last year so that makes me happy. This team is not a playoff team and is still 3-4 players away from being one. I know post draft there will be a lot of hype but this team needs to prove it on the field and needs 1 key FA pickup and another solid draft. This team is much like Aguayo its needs more time but you can see some of the key components are in place.
December 25th, 2016 at 12:53 pm
Joe, if Detroit loses out, the Giants beat the skins, and we win, are we in???
December 25th, 2016 at 1:12 pm
Not sure if anyone has talked about Brate going down and being replaced by Myer. Brate has been a third down machine and a safety net for Winston. Myer was extremely slow on his routes and looked more like a pulling guard than a pass catching TE. I think this hurt the Bucs way more then people are talking about.
December 25th, 2016 at 1:19 pm
Again those interceptions were both bad decisions not poor accuracy. He just throws it up sometimes hoping for the best when the most likely outcome is the worst. I love the guys passion, ability, leadership, and physical ability but none of that matters when the ball is going to the wrong place even though he knows better. Also please try to tell me the balls to Brate and Evans for TDs were not accurate. Both of those throws were pinpoint accurate, I’m telling you if he cleans up his decision making we are set at qb for 15 years. If not we will have the next Phillips Rivers as hard as that is for me to say it’s true.
December 25th, 2016 at 1:42 pm
Remember after our 10-6 season in 2010, people said we’d make the final push the next season? Then we bottomed out at 4-12 and Freeman our “franchise QB” went mental. This, more rebuilding came. Again.
Don’t be so quick to annoint 2017 as our year.
December 25th, 2016 at 2:03 pm
Word on the street is gerald mccoy is headed to cleveland.
Bucs get 2017 2nd round and 3rd round. Anlong with 2018 2nd and 4th rounders!!!!! chrismas comming early 2017.
December 25th, 2016 at 2:03 pm
The Bucs have improved overall. A middle of the pack standing indicates progress. Next year the Bucs will beat down the playoff doors. Go Bucs!
December 25th, 2016 at 2:07 pm
More BIG news comming out of tampa..
DOUG MARTIN goes back home to oakland. Bucs trade martin for 4 rounder. Maybe third if greenbay is desprite enough for a veteran back bucs eat 4 mill of his contract.
December 25th, 2016 at 2:13 pm
Reporting live. The glazers are letting it be know that they are front runners for super bowl.. Bucs have just made massive massive trade.
Winston is headed to cleveland for 2017 first round pick and 2017 second round pick along with player to be named later!!!!
December 25th, 2016 at 2:14 pm
Tough loss for sure, and even as a big jameis supporter it was disappointing to see some big errors from him in such an important game.
However, he is very young and flashes a lot of brilliance.
Need another great draft.
I doubt anybody knocks the door down to get Mike Smith, so defense should improve.
A bucs playoff game seems so long ago. What a sorry ass run.
December 25th, 2016 at 2:21 pm
Bucs are looking to take miles garret. With the number one pick..
Bucs resign gleenon to a 3 year 30 million dollar deal 18 guaranteed. Gleenon-brady.. Give the man some protection a solid running back and weapons
December 25th, 2016 at 2:22 pm
Winston made one bad decision (the long INT). He was backed up on his goal line and threw a 50/50 ball to Evans in the hopes his man could come down with it. It was a desperation throw that a 22 year old WB under pressure with his back to the goal line is likely to make from time to time. He should learn from it.
He made a bad read on the 2nd INT. Tried to look off the safety, but Byrd didn’t bite. JW threw it anyway and paid the price.
The reality is that these type of plays happen to even the best QBs in the league. Brees threw 3 INTs, including a pick 6, against our Bucs 2 weeks ago. Criticism is deserved – those INTs were costly and were huge reasons the team lost. But, at least keep the expectations realistic and the critique objective.
QBs in a vertical offense throw lower percentage and more dangerous passes. They rely on solid blocking up front. They rely on an effective running game to open up the “levels” in the passing game. The Bucs are struggling on both fronts.
JW is not likely to be a 70% passer in this offense. There just aren’t that many easy completions. He is playing with 2 very good receivers in Brate and Evans, but both are big bodies that rely on physicality more than separation. He has no RAC options – Huff has underwhelmed with the ball in his hands, Humphries is more of a novelty (WR screens, etc.) than a weapon at this point, and the O-line can’t seem to get the screen game going. The rest of the receivers (Shep, Martino, Myers, Cross, etc. are simply fill-ins at this stage of their careers.
The team needs to take a page out of the Raider’s and Cowboys’ books. When you are relying on a young QB, you have to give him all that he needs to succeed. You build a wall in front of him. Then you surround him with weapons.
The reality is that the Bucs have done very little towards this goal. The tackle play has been poor all year. Center has been a liability. There is virtually no running game. There is no consistent, reliable #2 WR. And, while Brate has been excellent, it is hard to say that he represents an effort to build around Jameis given that he was a mid season pickup off a practice squad. The Bucs were simply fortunate that he has developed into a weapon.
December 25th, 2016 at 2:29 pm
That defense yesterday played exactly like they did against Oakland when they allowed Carr ample time to survey and throw to his playmakers. Watching the pass rush was painful as they didn’t hit Bree’s at all.
The Saints were much more physical and athletic than Bucs. Contest wasn’t as close as the score. Saints dominated us.
Koetter and Licht need to purge this roster. LVD and McCoy would be great to move if one of the AFC teams would give up some high draft picks. Not sure they would get much for Martin. His stock has fallen, can’t make the first guy miss like he used to. It would be a fleece if we could get a 3rd rounder for him.
December 25th, 2016 at 2:33 pm
Lightning,
“Who will Koetter blame this week?”
I bet it is himself like he has every loss.
The Bucs have this stigma across the NFL that we can be ran up the middle on for one simple reason. We can and are. The only way to stop this stigma is to not allow teams to run up the middle of our defense. I watch us do this formation where we have DE DT_____DT DE you could drive a truck thru this hole we might have a LB LB ——->LB and one of them covering someone in motion. Or we might not maybe only 2 LB’s on the field then we get gut run again and again and again. We need to stop the run PERIOD. We sure did miss Mr. Gholston this game. Hope we sign him to a long term contract.
Go! Bucs!
December 25th, 2016 at 2:47 pm
Way too much negativism. Bottom line for me is that the Buccaneers outplayed their talent-level over the course of the season. After the Atlanta debacle, they were competitive in every game and even won a blowout over Chicago. They beat Kansas City and Seattle and but for one or two questionable calls could have beaten Oakland. They did this without a running game and with only two weapons on offense, Evans and Brate. Sims was out most of the year and tentative after he came back as was 22.. Quiz runs hard but he can’t be a workhorse back. The defense got worn down because the Buccaneers want to be a ball control offense and over the past month they couldn’t be. No defense can be sharp playing 65-80 plays a game. Still, we had our chances to win both of these last two games and came up short. You can blame it on Winston, but I don’t. Give him some weapons and he’ll flourish. We need at least one more good wide receiver and another tight end. Sims can be an excellent role player as he showed last year, but wither 22 comes back strong–which he might–or we need another tailback. Sure wish someone would tell us whether Sweezy will be back. The silence on him is deafening and if he’s not going to come back healthy we need another guard and perhaps a center to leap forward. I believe you will see a lot of heart out there next Sunday. In case, you haven’t noticed, the Buccaneers are remaking their roster and by 2018, you’ll have only a handful if that of players who were hear before Winston and Evans came on the scene.
December 25th, 2016 at 2:50 pm
The Saints awfully exposed the soft interior of the Bucs’ rush defense.
——————–
This has nothing to do with the $100mil Ghost. It’s bc Jameis is soooo inaccurate and an ATM automatic turnover machine. I demand perfection dammit.
If this isn’t GMC ….and I’m positive OCs see the same thing.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4fbkrXnxS6A
December 25th, 2016 at 2:58 pm
The second scene though.
Is it art imatating life of vice versa and is GMC getting a royalty for using his likeness?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T1xZcIeljM8
December 25th, 2016 at 3:45 pm
If you cannot get two first rounders for McCoy, you don’t trade him. And you can get that. He’s already been paid some of the big money. Co tract won’t matter.
His age won’t either THIS OFF SEASON.
Injuries? Well his have not been horrible from his third season on, so not a factor.
Patrick Says
“Remember after our 10-6 season in 2010, people said we’d make the final push the next season?”
As I recall, all throughout that season people said the schedule was soft. And it was. This year, no one can say that. If we’d had the Falcons schedule, we’d be 11+ wins too. In 2010, the national media talked us up for the next year, but most Tampa fans knew the truth.
December 25th, 2016 at 3:48 pm
Well, I think I would be more upset about missing the playoffs, but the Bucs organization has prepared me well for moments like this. I’m used to “when eyebrows get raised about potentially winning a few games to get in”, we lose most of them and fail to qualify. I’m used to it. I’m also used to looking forward to the offseason and draft for that next great hope. So, on to looking forward to FA and the draft and hopefully filling in some missing pieces ahem, WR, RT, C, DE, Safety, DT
December 25th, 2016 at 3:48 pm
I know Huff is toast. Winston hates him.
December 25th, 2016 at 6:38 pm
The Bucs need to draft a DT and that’s no knock on Gmac.
December 25th, 2016 at 7:26 pm
Lol DB, he even wears 93
December 25th, 2016 at 7:29 pm
ElioT Says:
December 25th, 2016 at 10:59 am
They CANNOT lose three straight to end the season 8-8. That would be a disaster
————————————————–
Are you kidding me??? This team has radically improved. Ending up 8-8 is no disaster. Man, there are some real dimwits on here! We have one more game at RayJay against the Panthers. Carolina has post-SB bug bad. They didn’t look great yesterday either. Hard to believe they were 15-1 last year. Bucs owe us fans this final win at home. I feel that they’ll pull it off. I was concerned over the depth issue before the regular season began. Buc Luck bit and it showed. Off-season will plug those holes though I’m still not totally sold on Mike Smith. C’mon Bucs-Win For The Fans On New Years Day!!
December 25th, 2016 at 7:59 pm
Bonsai there is no way in hell McCoy would fetch that much and I love the guy. At his age they would probably be able to get a 2nd rounder for him. Maybe a late first to a good team that was a player away. Two firsts along with picks in other rounds is very very far from reality.
December 25th, 2016 at 8:11 pm
I wouldn’t give 2 Ham Sandwich for GMC, let alone 2 1st round draft picks.
December 25th, 2016 at 8:39 pm
Thanks mccoy
This could be ur last game as buccaneer. We need winners now. McCoy and the Browns would be a great fit
December 25th, 2016 at 11:07 pm
You guys are taking this a little too far. GMC wont kill us on Cap. He still is an asset to some degree and gets penetration 50% of the time on run d. The other 50% he’s blown off the ball. He needs to put on some weight and get stronger. But to off load him at this point in the teams progression would be a little odd. This is a bit of a flip on my normal stance, but the D has gelled in the last 5 weeks and playing better as a UNIT. One player does not win games gentlemen. It is a collective effort. We need more talent in the secondary and the DL. We sure as hell need a decent 2 tech and some depth. All of which can be addressed. We have a lot of holes. That need filled. Now if some GM high on bath salts and drunk of his a$$ offers an early 1st and 2nd for GMC. I might consider it. But I would have to be dang sure that I knew who was going to fall where in the draft and also be sure I knew what I was getting. We know what GMC can give us. Much uncertainty comes with rookies. Calm yourselves.
December 26th, 2016 at 12:17 am
Why in the hell would we get rid of the strong points (gmac) on our team… We’re not desperate against the cap…. Keep our strong players and in FA and the draft put some beasts along side of them… keep making our team stronger!
December 26th, 2016 at 12:52 am
And why in the hell are we even discussing this? What credibility is there to anything involving GMAC? Do any of you have inside information? And if you did have inside info, why would you leak it? Wouldn’t that ruin any leverage the Bucs have? Why play that card this early?