Monitoring The Schedule
July 15th, 2016
Schedule may not be that tough.
Even though it is futile to pour over a schedule in July and try to determine wins and losses, it’s still fun.
A lot of folks believe the Bucs have a really tough schedule. Given they have to play the NFC West and the AFC West, Joe sees how that looks tough.
Noted NFL analyst Warren Sharp of Rotoworld.com decided to readjust his rankings of toughest schedules and now has the Bucs with the ninth-toughest schedule.
Buccaneers (#12 opponent increase, #9 SOS)
Tampa Bay’s current rank of #9 is primarily increased due to the teams in the Western divisions having rosier outlooks than at open. The Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks and Chargers are all viewed as slightly better than they were when the offseason started.
Playing the AFC West and NFC West automatically gives the Bucs a tough draw, and because of last year’s 4th place finish in the NFC South, they draw the Cowboys and Bears, both of which are poised to improve on their poor 2015 seasons. The reality for Tampa Bay is their first 5 weeks (before their Week 6 bye) represent the 3rd most difficult start any team has this year, with games against the Cardinals, Broncos and Panthers. But from Week 7 onward, their schedule is actually well easier than average.
If the Bucs manage to escape the first half of the season with their head above water, they could (should?) make a nice run in the final two months of the season.
Recently, Pat Kirwan, the ex-Jets personnel guru of SiriusXM NFL Radio fame, said he expects a better season from the Bucs because of, believe it or not, their schedule. The Bucs only play six teams with a winning record last year, Kirwan noted. One of those, Carolina, they play twice.
Just remember, last year everyone moaned about gloom and doom over the schedule but as the season progressed, that schedule was paved for the Bucs to make a wild card run. The fact the Bucs yuked all over themselves and couldn’t take advantage is one big reason Coach My Scheme is living in the middle of the Illinois cornfields now.
July 15th, 2016 at 8:52 am
Winning the opening game in Atlanta is crucial to the Bucs chances for “success” this season.
A 2-3 start is more likely than not and still gives the Bucs a reasonable chance to compete down the stretch for a wild card spot.
But we can only concentrate on that 1st game vs the Falcons for now and for the next 7 weeks – then take 1 game at a time and hope we are good enough to compete well against the better teams.
July 15th, 2016 at 8:59 am
7-9.
July 15th, 2016 at 9:36 am
Despite the fact that the Bucs only play six games against last year winning teams, this is still a difficult schedule in my view. It’s hard to see how anyone can say it is not. Yet I don’t under estimate the Bucs chances of upsetting some of the teams and surprising Buc fans and the league. I think that is optimistic.
July 15th, 2016 at 11:29 am
A record of 7-9 is unacceptable after all the turnover in the off-season starting with the head coach. One more win than the previous season is not progress toward building a winner. My expectation at the end of last season has always been 9-7 for 2016. It sounds like there are some people (not necessarily you) that are hedging their bets by having their expectations lower than it should be. There needed to be marked improvement or else this off-season was a waste.
July 15th, 2016 at 11:39 am
Pickgrin Says
“Winning the opening game in Atlanta is crucial to the Bucs chances for “success” this season.”
People said the same exact thing when we faced the New Orleans Saints in our opening game on September 8, 2002. We lost that game…
..and still won the Superbowl.
Tampa fans freaked out after losing the first game of the season, like they always do.
I personally think we’ll win that game, but no one game in the first half of the season is crucial.
The first 5 games will be a grind. If we come out 2-3 from them, we should count our lucky stars, because we could go on a win streak coming out of the bye. 3-2 would be a dream come true.
July 15th, 2016 at 11:41 am
Otherwise than the opening game thing, I agree with you 100%.
July 15th, 2016 at 11:41 am
Amen Joe! I’m so sick of talking about this “tough schedule.” No one can predict injuries or the effect of roster turnover. You play the team in front of you, nothing more. Just because these teams were good last year does not mean we can’t beat them this year!
Everyone starts the season 0-0!
July 15th, 2016 at 11:43 am
Now a lot of Buc fans are shouting, Tough schedule. Well its tough schedule for 31 other teams too! I’ll accept no excuses. There are no plausable pretexts to hide behind. You guys cried havoc and lets lynch..the last regime. You got your golden boy with his cape and chariot of spanking new coaches. No excuces. Get it done..period. Anything less than 500 is totally unacceptable and.. cause for the..Grim Reaper to take his axe and commence with Holloween. All of the smiles, laudatory speeches are just great for now, But the feces will hit the fan in a couple of months. We shall truly see what we got. And I..want WINS!
July 15th, 2016 at 11:47 am
@D-Rome
9-7 is not too outlandish…but an 8-8 would be acceptable this year. 7-9 would be tolerable.
Remember, we need just one more good draft to tighten things up. A 7-9 this year, giving us a better pick, might not matter if we go 10-6 and two games into the playoffs next year. Or win the division next year.
Really, it all depends on how we acquire whatever record we have. If the team loses ugly, it’s a disaster. If they lose due it bad calls, the way the ball bounces or a missed field goal…freak things…then it’s just the way the cookie crumbles and there would be no reason not to expect better next year.
I think we all witnessed it took 2-3 years to build the offense…so it’s reasonable to expect at least 2 years to build the defense. Improvement isn’t JUST about win totals. It’s also about performance and attitude.
If we go 7-9 this year, but we see a hungry team that wins the last 3-4 games (for example), then I don’t mind that.
But if we see a 7-9 record and the team is quitting…huge difference.
July 15th, 2016 at 11:48 am
Heck, at this point, beating the Panthers once would be cause for celebration.
July 15th, 2016 at 12:00 pm
I agree with all of this. Any player and coach past and present will tell you there is no such thing as an easy win in the NFL. You’re right, the team that has the so-called weakest schedule still has a tough schedule. This is what I was talking about above when I said Bucs fans are already hedging their bets for an underwhelming year. I wonder what the narrative will be toward Dirk Koetter if the Bucs end up 7-9 or worse. From the Joe’s it’ll be “Oh, he’s great with the media”. From many of the posters on JBF it’s “anyone but Loser Lovie”.
9-7 is my standard to judge based on the fact that I really believe the Bucs were a better football team than their final record indicated. The Bucs gave up an extra TD per game the last four games of the season which coincided with Kwon’s suspension. Let’s not forget that the Koetter’s (aka Golden Boy’s) offense was not very good those last four weeks either. With a capable FG kicker early on and Kwon playing those last four games I firmly believe the Bucs would have ended 8-8.
July 15th, 2016 at 12:01 pm
@Bonzai- You ain’t lying! I’d like to see us knock that stupid smirk off his face at least once!
July 15th, 2016 at 12:17 pm
People saying that 7-9 is unacceptable make me laugh. I want to see marked improvement, the difference between 7-9 and 9-7 can be as many as 3-5 plays or bad calls.
If this team is hungry, if they are better, if they are competing, you will be able to see that.
Last year we saw a team that gave up, that got humiliated and embarassed, NOT BY GOOD TEAMS, BUT THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE TWO YEARS IN ROW!
We play some VERY good teams this year. We could go 6-10 but if this team looks like it has improved, which it will, then I am fine with that. Again we play a very tough schedule and noone expected us to go to the superbowl this year.
I am happy with 6-10 this year playing the best teams in the league, then 10-6 next year playing a equally tough schedule.
July 15th, 2016 at 12:25 pm
The Chiefs lost the first 5 games last season and still made the playoffs. Ijs
July 15th, 2016 at 12:37 pm
@Jolly Bucs Fan:
Excellent post, and agree wholeheartedly!
tickrdr
July 15th, 2016 at 12:37 pm
@Jolly Bucs Fan
All the same, you make me laugh when you say 6-10 would be acceptable because the team “looks like it improved.” There is a plethora of statistics that one can look at to determine whether or not a team has actually improved despite their record. Feel good notions and opinions are irrelevant in the face of stats. Despite all that, what you are telling me is if the win/loss record doesn’t improve that’s OK even though you wanted Lovie Smith fired after a four game improvement. A four game improvement which could have easily been a six game improvement if it wasn’t for “3-5 plays or bad calls” and a Kwon suspension.
You’re already hedging your bets. You wanted Loser Lovie fired and that’s fine. What will be your built-in excuse for Dirk Koetter if the Bucs end up with the same exact record? What you are essentially saying is that a 6-10 record under Dirk Koetter is better than a 6-10 record under Lovie Smith.
All this nonsense about the team being hungry, better, or competing is conjecture on your part. You cannot measure a player’s hunger or whether or not he’s competing.
July 15th, 2016 at 12:55 pm
It’s a shame the Bucs drew this schedule because they are going to be seriously overmatched for at least half of their games.
Where are these 8 or 9 wins that some are expecting going to come from?
There are only 3 probable wins on the schedule, splits with the Falcons and Saints and beating SF on the road.
There are a handful of 50/50 games like the Bears, Rams, Raiders, and Chargers, so I’ll grant another 2 wins there.
The rest are all tough matchups. Cowboys, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Broncos, and Panthers (x2). The Bucs would be lucky to get 1 or 2 wins out of that draw.
It’s tough to make a case for anything better than 5-11 to 7-9 for 2016, and that’s if the Bucs star players can stay healthy.
July 15th, 2016 at 12:59 pm
D-Rome Says:
July 15th, 2016 at 12:00 pm
……………………………………………………………..
“Let’s not forget that the Koetter’s (aka Golden Boy’s) offense was not very good those last four weeks either. With a capable FG kicker early on and Kwon playing those last four games I firmly believe the Bucs would have ended 8-8.”
————————————————————————————
I’m not convinced that Kwon would have made that much of a difference.
The last four opponents were:
vs. NO: Lost 24-17. To expect to beat Drew Brees and the Saints with 17 points seems unrealistic. After all, it took 26 points the first time, even when Brees was hurt. BTW, NO had the 31st ranked defense overall.
vs. St.L: Lost 31-23. While scoring 23 points overall seems respectable, the score after 3 quarters was 28-6, and Winston was all of 11 of 24 for 125 yards, no TDs and a fumble. Sure they scored 17 points in the 4th quarter, but by then the Rams had called off the dogs, and were playing prevent defense.
vs. Chi: Lost 26-21. Again, the 21 points overall seems respectable, but remember the Bucs recovered a blocked punt at the 4 yd line with subsequent 4 yd TD run by DM22. The 2nd TD came on the Joes’ favorite play. On a broken play, Charles Sims wound up being guarded (poorly) by a defensive end (90’s number) for an easy 50 yd TD score. And who could forget the Hail Mary to ASJ with one second on the clock.
vs. Car: Lost 38-10 10 total points won’t win many games in the NFL. JW3 did throw only two INTs in this game, which was certainly better than the four INTs in the first game, but no TD passes this time for the Messiah.
tickrdr
July 15th, 2016 at 1:02 pm
@ America’s Commenter:
Another excellent post, and agree wholeheartedly!
tickrdr
Note to self: Hmmm, what if they think it’s bad that I agree with them?
July 15th, 2016 at 1:54 pm
The Buccaneers defense gave up seven more points per game during Kwon Alexander’s absense over the last four games of the season.
You’re not convinced his absence didn’t have a negative impact on the Bucs defense?
Okay….
July 15th, 2016 at 2:32 pm
Guys this is not the SEC or ACC. Year in and year out we know that certain schools are going to be great teams…gee do we suspect Bama, OSU and FSU to win ten games this year?
The NFL is not like that at all. The parity is not perfect but it’s not really that far off either. Who can forget when MGM kicked the eventual SuperBowl winning Seahawks in THEIR house on the WEST COAST until Toes on the Line took his foot off the accelerator certain his defense could win it from there. Yeah that’s the ticket.
The Seahawks were clearly better than the Bucs that year, but if it wasn’t for Schiano the Bucs would have whipped them. Every game is individual. Depends on the health and psyche of the opponent too.
What really sucked bigtime last year was even when we caught a break…starting QB out with injury…it didn’t make any difference! Hopefully this year we’ll beat the teams we should beat and compete against those we shouldn’t.
July 15th, 2016 at 3:05 pm
@Stpete- well said! How does the quote go? “That’s why they play the games.”
Strength of schedule is an excuse. You line your eleven up against my eleven and we punch each other in the face until there’s only one still standing. Yes, of course you game-plan but you never play scared. You play who is in front of you. It doesn’t matter what the name says on the back of the jersey!
July 15th, 2016 at 5:44 pm
I’m still saying we could be a better team and still go 6-10. Every team doesn’t play the same schedule. Some are easier than others. Remember our easy schedule under Morris when we were 10-6. Our record this season has nothing to do with anyone wanting Lovie fired. We could have a 6-10 where we get blown out a lot or a 6-10 where we got some bad breaks. Lovie Smith is gone. He has nothing to do with what will happen with Koetter. You people make me laugh when you say Koetter has to beat 6 wins or he should be fired like Lovie. This year I only see 6-10. Next year should be playoffs or Koetter is on the hot seat. The only way Koetter is fired after this season is if he goes 2-14 or something like that. If you wanted Lovie to stay then you can’t give up on Koetter after one season if he gets to 6 wins and the team looks more competitive.
July 15th, 2016 at 6:53 pm
BuccaneEric75 Says:
Another good post.
tickrdr
July 15th, 2016 at 7:51 pm
What is so bad about this schedule? Lets say we lose to the Panthers twice, the Broncos, the Cardinals, and the Seahawks. All of the other games are easily winnable. Add in a loss to the Rams if you want another one and we are 10-6. That would be a great record but a loss to all of those teams pretty much means that we couldn’t hang in the playoffs either.
July 16th, 2016 at 12:47 am
It’s a shame the Bucs drew this schedule because they are going to be seriously overmatched for at least half of their games.
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Why is it a shame? Competition only will make the team stronger. The season hasn’t even started. There could be key injuries to the teams we face to alter the outlook, or teams might be overrated/underrated when the season hits.
July 16th, 2016 at 3:21 am
If we lose AGAIN to the Rams, this time against Jared Goff😂, I think my head will explode. Especially since the restaurant/bar that we go to watch the game is owned by a guy that’s a Rams fan. Please not again.
July 16th, 2016 at 7:41 am
“To be the best, u have to BEAT the best.” Plain n simple. Bring em on, we will never know how good we really are if we’re playing all the cream puffs.
Are we really that scared of mark Sanchez aka butt fumble boy?? If our line can protect Winston they are in for a fight.
July 17th, 2016 at 9:48 am
feelthepewterpower Says
“Why is it a shame? Competition only will make the team stronger.”
That holds true in most cases…and partially in this case…but we are a young team, and these players need a good taste of winning to fire them up and prove that they can do it.
That would be the only plus to making the playoffs this year (unless we can go all the way) too.
I would rather have a winning record and NOT make the playoffs if we can’t win in the playoffs. Otherwise we gain very little and lose spots in the draft…and we need one more good draft to put the finishing touches on the defense.
July 17th, 2016 at 1:54 pm
Bucs have never been real lucky when it comes to NFL schedules. You can count mebbe the total number of cupcake schedules on one hand. That’s from 1976-now. That said, they should do at least 8-8. With D. Koetter and M. Smith at the helm, they oughta do better than .500!