Reality Check On Compensatory Draft Picks
March 20th, 2016
Not only is a 2018 compensatory draft pick for Mike Glennon leaving in free agency pure speculation, an influential voice is trying to eliminate compensatory picks altogether.
A misguided faction of Bucs fans clings to the fantasy that Tampa Bay should not trade Mike Glennon this year because they will get a 2018 third-round draft pick — a compensatory pick — when Glennon leaves next offseason and signs a big free-agent deal.
Joe appreciates the blind hope, but that’s all it is.
The simple reality of earning a compensatory pick, which the Bucs never seem to score, comes down to how many free agents leave and sign elsewhere compared to how many players a team signs in free agency in a given offseason.
The qualifying window is the start of the league year in March through May 1, per super agent Drew Rosenhaus, who discussed the subject Friday on The Joe Rose Show on WQAM in Miami.
For example, say the Bucs lose Glennon, Demar Dotson and Akeem Spence in free agency next offseason, and Vincent Jackson retires. Under that scenario, to even have a shot at a compensatory pick, the Bucs would have to sign two or fewer free agents in March and April of 2017, because Jackson’s retirement wouldn’t count.
It’s very hard to believe the Bucs wouldn’t sign a few free agents. But the example illustrates how it’s a total crap shoot to bank on getting a pick for Glennon leaving.
Magnifying the shaky probability is the salary variable in the equation. A team only has a chance at a third-round pick if it has a net loss of free agents and one of them signs a massive deal somewhere else.
These dreamer fans think Glennon is the next Brock Osweiler! Ridiculous!
The compensatory pick rules are complicated and Joe advises against believing the nugget of Glennon speculation heard on ESPN.
Changing The Rule
Teams worrying about compensatory picks is common in the NFL, per Rosenhaus, who is lobbying to abolish the practice.
Rosenhaus hinted the Bucs’ signing of Vikings free agent cornerback Josh Robinson last week happened because the Dolphins are clinging to their eventual 2017 compensatory draft picks.
“You know, the Dolphins brought in a ton of free agents,” Rosenhaus said. “And I know people were frustrated when they saw, — we had a couple of clients come in like [linebacker] Sean Spence and Josh Robinson the cornerback, these are two local guys that signed elsewhere. One of the reasons the Dolphins aren’t signing these free agents, quite frankly, is because they are very mindful of the compensatory picks.
“So one of the things that I’ve said to the union is, ‘Can we get rid of the compensatory picks? Because it really does affect free agency. You know, if we’re going to have free agency, let’s do it where teams aren’t holding back because they want to collect on draft picks.’
“I literally had teams say to me, ‘Look, we’re not going to able to sign this guy because we’re mindful of where we are in the compensatory pick calculations. We don’t want to be upside down on that.’
“I will tell you that the Green Bay Packers, they won’t sign a free agent. Period. They’ll sign guys that were cut, that won’t count against the draft picks. They’re so mindful of getting extra picks.
“Now this doesn’t matter if you don’t lose guys [in free agency]. But you know the Dolphins have probably lost more [free agents] than anyone else this year other than the Denver Broncos. … That’s something I’m competing against now when I try to get our guys signed.”
And since you made it this far, now you understand another reason why the Bucs absolutely should trade Glennon if they have a third-round pick on the table. Or maybe even an early fourth-rounder.
March 20th, 2016 at 12:49 am
Joe didn’t say the other day that the Bucs should trade him for whatever they could get? Like a 5th or 6th, anything at all since if Winston went down hurt they should have a bad backup? Not even being a dick that as the way I read the last article, this seems like a different take.
No, Joe didn’t write to trade Glennon for just anything. Joe has never advocated making a bad trade just for the sake of dumping Glennon. Feel free to search the archives. –Joe
March 20th, 2016 at 1:02 am
No thanks on researching archives. What’s the point of all this. I bet 70% of people on this site would take him for a 3 rd pick. So basically everybody agrees with you. Less than a 3rd rd pick not so much. Ultimately it is licht who is holding tight to mg. that is if you believe guys like Adam scheffter ESPN.
March 20th, 2016 at 1:07 am
Why did we keep a 3rd QB all last season only to hold on to Glennon for 1 year when we’re not going to need him for a Super Bowl run? Trade him on draft day and be done with it. Maybe Cleveland will cough up a fourth-rounder, cut McCown, and have Glennon compete.
March 20th, 2016 at 1:15 am
If that article from the other day said the Bucs should take a 3rd for Glennon then I would have mostly agreed, I didn’t read it that way and from reading the comments the vast majority of people didn’t read it that way either. Just saying.
But I don’t think people are offering a 3rd for a QB with 1-year left without giving him a new contract.
Also if the weak armed and no experienced Chase Daniels gets $7mil a year I think Glennon will get at least $10mil on the open market. I’m not even a Glennon fan but I don’t see how he’s worse than Brock and he would be a better starter than what they currently have in Cleveland, San Fran, Denver and the Jets.
March 20th, 2016 at 2:39 am
Anyone that believes Glennon would get $10M a year truly lives in fantasy land. The only possible way that happens is if Winston gets hurt and Glennon starts a bunch of games. It could be argued that Daniel is overpaid, but he was signed by a head coach that knows him. What other coaches in the NFL know Glennon?
March 20th, 2016 at 5:48 am
Compensatory picks topic has been bantered around for quite awhile on JBF and other sites Joe with quite a bit of inaccurate, misleading information spread around. Glad Drew Rosenhaus finally cleared that up for all of us who don’t get into the NFL owners-players agreement every day. Would’ve been nice if that had been done months ago when the speculation was running all over the place.
Still believe however that trading Mike Glennon for anything less than a 3rd round pick isn’t in the Bucs best interests right now. He’s a valuable backup to us because of his experience knowing our offensive system, plus history seems to indicate that several other teams will lose their starting QBs at some point in the coming season. No need for Licht to rush into anything and just settle for a low pick.
March 20th, 2016 at 6:21 am
Glennon was selected at the 11th spot in the 3rd round (73 overall), so taking a lower pick than that in trade is pretty much an admission that he has less value today than he did in the 2013 draft. I don’t think anyone believes that.
The Bucs have put a lot of time, money and effort into getting Glennon ready to start for another team, so the least they can expect is to get their investment in draft picks back. That means pick 73 overall or higher. Less than that and it’s a loss for the Bucs and a win for another team.
March 20th, 2016 at 7:17 am
When will the Joe(s) learn that their attitude and tone towards the Glennon situation creates absolutely garbage articles. Rough read
Don’t be ridiculous.–Joe
March 20th, 2016 at 7:32 am
Quality depth at the QB position is awesome.
Josh Freeman sucks.
March 20th, 2016 at 8:07 am
I for one would offer Gennon a three year contract at around 5 mil per season guaranteed, with incentives — playing time — that could bump it to 10 mil. It might entice him to stick around and also enhance his trade value to other teams. Just a thought.
March 20th, 2016 at 8:27 am
I agree with Joe on this one. U take what u can unless it’s a 5th or lower. Yes it’s nice having a quality backup for Jameis but if he gets injured u can pretty much kiss the season goodbye anyways.
No sense of having Glennon come in and win a couple extra games and lower our draft position. We’re not going to the Super bowl next season anyways.There’s a reason we kept Ryan Griffin on our active roster last season. Let him hold the clip board.
March 20th, 2016 at 8:28 am
Thanks for clarifying as seen that excuse used in a lot of posts from different people on this site. Hard to see bucs keeping glennon when they can get draft pick. They need to pounce on 3rd round pick or lower which has not been likely offered unlike rumors out there. Apparently. Kaepernick was offered for a fourth round pick from Denver so hard to see how teams are offering lower for glennon at this time. However. Around draft time teams could get more desperate as we have 3 or 4 teams in that boat. I would take a fourth or 5th. However. Maybe bucs can even use to move up higher in a round for a huge draft need
March 20th, 2016 at 8:31 am
I like what Flboy said.
March 20th, 2016 at 8:51 am
Can we not trade him along with our 9th pick for an even higher position in the draft(2nd pick of the draft maybe)?
March 20th, 2016 at 8:56 am
history seems to indicate that several other teams will lose their starting QBs at some point in the coming season. No need for Licht to rush into anything and just settle for a low pick.
________________________________________________________________Forgive me. I’m still on my first cup of coffee. But when does it happen that a team loses their QB during the season, trades for one and plugs him in to play? It may have, but I don’t recall and don’t feel like looking quite yet.
March 20th, 2016 at 9:05 am
It seems to me that we could trade Glennon for a player instead of a draft pick….we have $$$…..Perhaps there is team out there that has an extra CB, S or DE and needs a QB….
There has been almost zero talk about trading Glennon for a player.
March 20th, 2016 at 9:15 am
I bet you $5 that GMC gets traded before MGM. #screenshot
March 20th, 2016 at 9:30 am
The only time Glennon will get traded is during the draft probably as a trade up type situation like swapping a bucs 3rd for Broncos 3rd he’s viewed as more of a bridge QB for a team grooming a rookie
March 20th, 2016 at 9:32 am
Meant a bucs 3rd for Broncos 2nd, to move up for a player licht likes swapping picks to get higher for certain players like Kwon n Marpet last year
March 20th, 2016 at 10:07 am
If i watched glennons tape, and i was a GM. I wouldn’t fork out anything higher than a 6th round pick for Glennon. And that is only if im very very very very desperate for a QB. In all likelyhood, i would rather draft a rookie with more upside than what glennon has.
The tape doesn’t lie. You can look at all the garbage time TDs you want, but the tape tells the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
March 20th, 2016 at 10:36 am
So Osweiler who has done nothing in the NFL, and Sam Bradford, who has a losing record by a wide margin. They get 18 million a year. Chase Daniels get 7 million a year for having even less success in the NFL. MG8 has decent numbers and has size and arm strength. All that equates to the guy getting at least 12 million a year. That’s called common sense. Over half the teams need QBs. Which ends up paying out deals to guys like Brock and Sam, that are WAY WAY TOO MUCH. But, its part of the game now.
And people seem to forget. We never get comp picks. We always sign too many players to even come close to getting them. Why would you wait around and hope to get a pick. In 2018 at that. When you can get a solid pick now for the 2016 draft. Makes zero sense to me. Send him on his way and pick up a “starter” for a “backup”.
March 20th, 2016 at 10:45 am
Maybe this article will help. I know correcting people in the comment section didn’t. I explained this along with others multiple times only to have someone commit later that we would be getting a 3rd comp pick?! SMH
March 20th, 2016 at 10:45 am
These dreamer fans think Glennon is the next Brock Osweiler! Ridiculous!
……………………………………………………..
LOL
Glennon is mucho mas bueno than Osweiler ever was. Keep smoking the good stuff Joes
March 20th, 2016 at 10:47 am
oooops I am under ‘moderation’ for disagreeing with the Joes
March 20th, 2016 at 10:57 am
In Brock’s FOUR year career he has thrown 11 TDs
YUP,”These dreamer fans think Glennon is the next Brock Osweiler! Ridiculous!”
March 20th, 2016 at 10:58 am
Glennon was eons ahead of Brock when he came out of the draft.
March 20th, 2016 at 11:01 am
It is early on a Sunday morning and I may still be feeling the Jack so, I am gonna sign off and wait for my sorry Gators to beat OSU in the nit.
Go BUCS!
March 20th, 2016 at 11:18 am
I want the Bucs to trade Glennon and get a second round pick. I also think that Licht is using an Eric Cartman-esque technique to increase demand for Glennon by telling people they can’t have him. Let’s be real, Glennon is no stud. He looks like a baby giraffe on ice skates. But I am quite sure that we will get a second round pick, and possibly one of the 15 or so starting caliber safeties in the draft with that pick, for Glennon before the start of the 2016 season. What I am disgusted by is A) The outright lack of faith in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team before we even have our roster together and B) The Joe(s) instance that having a quality backup QB is somehow damaging to an NFL team with realistic playoff chances. Most of us here are Bucs fans, some of us REAL BUCS FANS. We don’t like to hear negativity until at least training camp. Don’t we usually suffer enough on Sunday’s? -Dave
March 20th, 2016 at 11:22 am
We might have to toss in a 5th rounder to get that 2nd round pick, but believe me, we won’t take a 4th or 5th for the immortal Mike Glennon!
March 20th, 2016 at 11:37 am
I think compensatory should be awarded to the teams that have the worse records the year before, just like the draft picks are.
Isn’t the idea to make bad teams better so that quality of product and ratings goes up?
March 20th, 2016 at 11:41 am
@Rod Munch
I think what was said was more of the lines of “the Bucs will get nothing if he walks last year, so trading him would at least get them something.”
That isn’t the same as saying they should take whatever they can get…even though it might be taken that way.
March 20th, 2016 at 11:43 am
Personally, I think taking less than 73rd overall would be wrong. Especially when they were already offered better with a 2nd round pick.
March 20th, 2016 at 11:50 am
Thank you for finally writing this. I quit arguing the Glennon will net a 3rd round comp pick a long time ago! If we can get a 3 or a 4 and 6 then pull the trigger.
March 20th, 2016 at 12:38 pm
I don’t see any team beating down the door to offer anything up for Glennon anyway. If the asking price is too high hold firm, don’t give MG away for peanuts.
March 20th, 2016 at 1:14 pm
I don’t know where the notion half the teams need QBs comes from, let’s see….Cleveland Denver Los Angeles Jets are the only obvious needy teams, San Fran is next but have no use for Glennon, then Dallas but they don’t want Glennon and Glennon doesn’t want to be a backup, Chicago has a better option than Glennon, Glennon is viewed as bridge type QB, the only team that views him as a 2-3 round trade value QB are the Bucs…and the draft has 3 1st round caliber QBs, why trade a valuable pick like a 2-3 rounder for backup caliber QB with limited experience
March 20th, 2016 at 1:15 pm
I don’t often agree with Guzzie, but I do here. I also think Glennon will be a draft day trade either first or second day. Football players are assets and if somebody wants that asset bad enough they will pay. Teams that have not found a qb in free agency or through trade may get desperate on draft day because their target qb is gone.
March 20th, 2016 at 1:21 pm
Lol The compensatory pick is meaningless, whether we get one or not it has nothing to do with Glennon’s value to us as a cheap way to ensure that our offense still gives us a chance to win in the case that Winston, hopefully doesnt happen, misses games this coming season.
Again, Glad we have a competent GM that understands his value unlike the “Lets Get Rid Of Him For Anything” crowd. He’s not leaving for anything less than a 2nd, which isn’t happening.
March 20th, 2016 at 2:14 pm
Good thing we have a gm that understands the value of a back up like Glennon. Or if the Joes get their way our QB depth chart will look a lot like
1- Winston
2- Jacob Schum
3- Donovan Smith
March 20th, 2016 at 2:25 pm
Bucs will sign winston to a huge new contract sometime in 2017 bc they don’t want him to see the last year of his 4yr rookie deal. Expect Bucs to avoid free agency next year to preserve cap room for Winston new deal.
March 20th, 2016 at 3:16 pm
Thank you for this article Joe. The Bucs always seem to dabble quite a bit in FA, which is why we never get the comp picks. We also usually trade away our talent, or cut them, which leads to no comp picks. Or their are years where we simply don’t have any talented players. Lol
March 20th, 2016 at 3:22 pm
Guess you’d rather have a hole in the starting roster so you can see a guy hold a clip board and pray he never plays?
Any team who loses their starting QB is screwed, doesn’t matter who the backup is.
Last time Joe remembers a team making a Super Bowl run because of a quality backup was Shaun King. Oh, wait…
March 20th, 2016 at 4:11 pm
For those saying Glennon has zero chance at getting that $10mil contract…
Again, I repeat, Chase Daniels… a guy with no arm and no starting experience who has barely done more in the NFL than I have got a $21mil/3 year deal. Chase Daniels. To be a backup. $7-mil a year.
Glennon is getting at least $10-mil a year I think. He’s big, he’s got a big arm and he has starting experience and did OK on a terrible team with terrible coaches. I’m not a Glennon fan, I think at his peak he’ll be a very average QB and acceptable game manager. That is what Brock is and he got what, $18-mil from Houston. Brock and Glennon are the same guy.
March 20th, 2016 at 5:03 pm
1999 backup QB Kurt Warner wins superbowl. 2000 backup QB Trent Dilfer wins superbowl. 2001 backup* Tom Brady wins superbowl. 2002 Bucs win a Superbowl with a career backup QB! It’s not impossible to win with a backup QB.
March 20th, 2016 at 5:16 pm
You don’t honestly believe we’re going to get a starter for a backup QB do you?
Joe’s, I’d like to know the least that you’d take for Glennon.
I stand by my assertion that the market has been set for Glennon with the Mark Sanchez trade — a conditional 7th rounder. I for one, would not trade Glennon for a conditional 7th rounder. I’d consider trading him for a 4th round pick, but I just don’t see a team offering us that high of a pick
March 20th, 2016 at 5:22 pm
Might want to ask the Broncos about that. Or the “greatest show on turf” rams. How about last years Redskins who drafted a backup qb the same year they used a 1st round pick on a QB — that backup took them to the playoffs last year.
I also think you need to define “losing a qb.” Do you mean even if Jameis goes down for a half that we are screwed? Would you rather have Ryan Griffin under center in a week 17 situation with the playoffs on the line that Mike Glennon? I wouldn’t, but this is a scenario that I’ve been bringing up for the last 3 weeks that the Joe’s pretend doesn’t exist. In fact, I’d say needing our backup QB to come through for us for one drive, noe half, one game, is much more plausible than needing a backup qb to take the reins for multiple weeks.
March 20th, 2016 at 5:24 pm
Tom Brady. Colin Kaepernic, or maybe he took over the year before. Kurt Warner. Ok I’m stretching here.
March 21st, 2016 at 3:08 pm
Osweiler has won 5 games and he is so much better than Glennon?
You gotta be kidding Joe. Glennon had a much weaker team around him, no coaching support at all, and went into hostile Seattle and Pittsburgh and played like a star. He is at least worth where he was drafted based on his performance and potential.
Glennon will be dealt prior to or during the draft. Once Kap situation is cleared up the dominos start to fall.
Glennon would thrive in the right environment, and will be a good NFL starting QB sometime very soon.
I think we get a 2nd round pick for him, or at worst an early 3. Otherwise, hold.