Expect Rookie Play From A Rookie
June 4th, 2015
In a long, windy, wordy piece, a BSPNer explains receivers rarely make a QB.
Yes, Joe remembers how over-the-top giddy “America’s Quarterback,” Bucs signal-caller Jameis Winston, was on draft night because he had two 6-5 wide receivers as his main targets.
Many NFL types agree and believe having Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson should allow Jameis to succeed quicker than most rookie quarterbacks.
Well, Andrew Healy of BSPN taps the breaks on that notion.
In an alphabet-soup-filled piece for the four-letter, Healy dug deep to see if two stud receivers helped a first-year starting quarterback to succeed — not necessarily a rookie quarterback.
His exhaustive research found evidence that good receivers help but won’t make a young quarterback.
There was but one incident Healy found where a first-time starting QB (Dante Culpepper) had what Healy termed really good success. He credited to two Hall of Fame wide receivers, Randy Moss (just a matter of time before he goes to Canton) and Cris Carter.
In short, Healy isn’t ready dub Evans and Jackson as Canton candidates quite yet. Thus, he expects Jameis to be what he is: a rookie quarterback.
Winston’s receivers rank at the bottom on this list of very good targets. But maybe they belong higher with the other pairs that likely helped quarterbacks such as Culpepper and Bulger. Perhaps Evans is ready to break out in his second year. And perhaps both Evans and Jackson were held back in 2014 by poor quarterback play from Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. Moreover, Winston, who was successful in college throwing to the 6-foot-5 Kelvin Benjamin, might thrive throwing to two talented 6-foot-5 targets like Evans and Jackson.
While we cannot rule this out, the data do not point toward Evans and Jackson being close to the same level as guys like Moss and Carter. Last year, Jackson ranked 68th among wide receivers in DVOA, continuing a steady decline over the last five years. Evans, more promisingly, ranked 21st. Given Tampa’s quarterback play, Evans’ performance is particularly impressive. It’s hard to ask anyone to be Randy Moss, but it may be an even bigger question whether Jackson, at age 32, can be Winston’s Cris Carter.
It is not particularly fair to compare any receivers to Moss and Carter, but it is useful here to see just how far Evans and Jackson fall short of that historic pairing of future Hall of Famers, one young and one veteran. Randall Cunningham had never been much above an average passer in six previous seasons as a starter. In 1998, he instantly became the best quarterback in the NFL by DVOA. His primary targets were a rookie Moss and 12-year veteran Carter.
Evans just doesn’t believe Evans and Jackson are good enough to mask the bumps in the road every rookie QB has to navigate.
In short, Healy, who mocks the notion of receivers making a quarterback, believes if Jameis is successful this season, it will be mostly because of Jameis.
June 4th, 2015 at 11:15 am
I would hope Evans believes Evans and Jackson are good enough to mask the bumps in the road Jameis has to navigate. It would suck for our young stud WR not to have confidence in himself after such as a great year 😉
June 4th, 2015 at 11:16 am
If Jameis is successful this year it will be mostly because of a combination of things…..Jameis….Koetter….Oline…..ME13, Vjax, ASJ….Sims….
June 4th, 2015 at 11:26 am
Glennon had a 2:1 ratio of TD to INT as a rookie, with fewer weapons. If Jameis is the savior, and the starter over Glennon, shouldn’t we set that ratio as a reasonable expectation? I mean, especially since Joe and a bunch of others here are so convinced that Glennon is a crap starter.
June 4th, 2015 at 11:28 am
Try sure did a good job “masking” Josh McCown for a pair of 1000 yard seasons. I think that speaks volumes for them as receivers.
June 4th, 2015 at 11:33 am
I think the TD/Int ratios are good guidelines….but they don’t always tell the story…..It depends on when the Ints occur and when the TDs happen…..a really good QB (like Brees) or (Favre) can throw interceptions early….but if they connect with clutch TDs late in the game or come-from-behind…..then that makes a huge difference.
The problem for Glennon’s stats is the he didn’t win….and I think many opportunities to connect with WRs were lost because of fear of the Int…..that is something I think Schiano instilled in him and it made him timid & unsuccessful.
June 4th, 2015 at 11:55 am
What happened to all the criticism VJackson was getting for dropping passes and being over the hill? Having Jameis cut out all that talk apparently. He is getting older as you stated and neither he nor Evans are speedsters as has been said. I have confidence Jameis will hit these receivers along with other developing players at the position. The overall passing game still depends on the protection of our QB first and foremost as the impetus to success.
June 4th, 2015 at 12:03 pm
F#$% Glennon. Anybody trying to hold Jameis to the standard of Glennon is oh so clueless. Joe, please ban all those crying for the stork by the name of Glennon. I can’t for the life of me understand why a fan would cry for a player that his own locker room did not want. F#$% Glennon!!!!!
June 4th, 2015 at 12:06 pm
I don’t know. It sure looks to me like Evans has a documentable history of making quarterbacks look good.
June 4th, 2015 at 12:07 pm
The one thing he doesn’t take into account is making plays, we all will see when the plays are not there, can Jameis make magic out of it, or the little things that should fire a team up, like Mike Evans lifting up Terrance Newman, you barely saw any Buc go over and get fired up off of that, I bet JW would’ve been all over that. Can he he make plays out of nothing and take advantage of it when plays are there. I can only remember Glennon making one such play, throwing a receiver open. JW will fire up the O and the D, like The A-train used to do…
June 4th, 2015 at 12:07 pm
Every rookie QB will struggle while attempting to adjust in the NFL… I am curious to see how our receivers will help Winston out… He had a monster year at FSU throwing to K. Benjamin… I believe both Evans and V. Jax are very similar receivers…
Our new offensive coordinator and an improved line will also play major roles in determining this years offensive outcome… I am more concerned about our lackluster running game which will need to vastly improve if this offense is going to succeed…
June 4th, 2015 at 12:13 pm
It wasnt just kelvin..rashad and kenny shaw were 1000 yd receivers as well..thats why the whole gruden “locked on rashad” b.s. was ridiculous. He had a bunch of wlda been redshirts had any of the upperclassmen not named rashad stepped up.
June 4th, 2015 at 12:15 pm
Tiny Tim Says:
June 4th, 2015 at 12:03 pm
Settle down dude. I wasn’t calling for Glennon. I’m just saying that a decent TD:INT ratio isn’t an unreasonable expectation for a rookie. If Glennon can do it, so can Jameis.
June 4th, 2015 at 12:22 pm
I’ll just be glad when the season starts and we can shut the doubters down. Im not expecting a miracle, but knowing what I know, we’re probably going to have a winning season….above .500 for a change.
June 4th, 2015 at 12:24 pm
And ya’ll leave my boy Glennon alone!!! He’s a hell of a hard worker and he’ll be there for us if Winston were to go down. Lovie knew he’d get killed behind that O line last year and wanted to save him, plus give him some time to grow.
June 4th, 2015 at 12:31 pm
I am really seeing that Evans and VJ numbers to be way down. Last year the stats were very skewed! Mostly due to injuries in TE, and being down by 2 touchdowns before the end of the 1st quarter. Most of the time the run game day plan was thrown out the window by halftime. 531 passes compared to 353 run attempts.
And the 2 huge lineman they drafted really point to trying to get a running game going this year!
June 4th, 2015 at 12:35 pm
The NFL is so different now that case studies fromt he 90s don’t really apply as much today imo.
I stand by my belief that Winston; as an FSU freshman in his first start; showed every QB trait I needed to see to think that in that moment he was already better than any QB the Bucs have ever had.
I’m just hopeful that I can find a place in a building in downtown denver where we can still get direct TV so i can get the ticket this year. If we can’t I’m going to a bar every sunday to watch lol
June 4th, 2015 at 12:38 pm
@tval
I agree re FSU receivers… K. Benjamin was still his best receiver while at FSU and he now has two very similar guys to throw to if they can stay healthy… That’s all…
June 4th, 2015 at 1:27 pm
ROY
MVP
Walter Peyton MOY
Okay, so maybe WPMOY award is a stretch, fair enough.
June 4th, 2015 at 1:43 pm
salish_seamonster Says:
June 4th, 2015 at 12:15 pm
Settle down dude. I wasn’t calling for Glennon. I’m just saying that a decent TD:INT ratio isn’t an unreasonable expectation for a rookie. If Glennon can do it, so can Jameis.
————–
And again I say f#$% Glennon. His ratio is so misleading it is not even funny. He was/is scared to pull the trigger unless it was/is a check down. I will take Winston throwing 28 ints like Manning because I can get a true gauge at what type of QB I have. One who is capable of making big plays while we teach him how to clean up his ints. No disrespect but F#$% Glennon. He is not a gauge whatsoever unless we are talking game manager potential. We are not, we are talking franchise QB.
June 4th, 2015 at 1:45 pm
FYI
Keep in mind both Benjamin and Greene put up so so numbers before Winston and that is with a senior qb. Its safe to say that Winston had a lot to do with their success.
June 4th, 2015 at 1:59 pm
VJax and ME13 may not be Carter and Moss, but they’re very good and right in Winston’s wheelhouse with regards to their height.
FYI it’s tape the “brakes” and “Daunte” Culpepper, not breaks and Dante
June 4th, 2015 at 2:25 pm
Jason…for your info. It’s Daunte NOT Dante.
Nice try though. 🙂
June 4th, 2015 at 2:26 pm
Tiny Tim Says:
June 4th, 2015 at 1:43 pm
salish_seamonster Says:
June 4th, 2015 at 12:15 pm
So you’re saying Jameis can’t have a decent TD:INT ratio? Why all the F bombs about Glennon? I didn’t say Glennon’s better or that he should be our starter.
In my opinion, it’s better for a rookie to play it a little safe, having conservative stats, and avoid the turnovers. Chucking it all over the field and throwing 30 picks as some talking head suggested would happen is not good for a QB’s psyche, or for the W/L columns.
Your point is well taken on Glennon as a game manager who takes few chances. Maybe he’s Brad Johnson. Anyway, at least in his rookie year, Jameis could learn something about protecting the football from a guy like Glennon.
June 4th, 2015 at 2:46 pm
Sorry Jason…Joe was wrong. I read your post wrong…
You can slap me now….
June 4th, 2015 at 3:07 pm
salish_seamonster Says:
So you’re saying Jameis can’t have a decent TD:INT ratio? Why all the F bombs about Glennon? I didn’t say Glennon’s better or that he should be our starter.
In my opinion, it’s better for a rookie to play it a little safe, having conservative stats, and avoid the turnovers. Chucking it all over the field and throwing 30 picks as some talking head suggested would happen is not good for a QB’s psyche, or for the W/L columns.
Your point is well taken on Glennon as a game manager who takes few chances. Maybe he’s Brad Johnson. Anyway, at least in his rookie year, Jameis could learn something about protecting the football from a guy like Glennon.
—————–
Andrew Luck threw 18 ints while Manning threw 28 ints and both td/int ratios were not that good as rookies. How is their psyche? Very strong because they are true franchise qbs. A true franchise qb psyche is not damaged due to interceptions. They forget about it and move on. Qualities I see in Winston. If I had a team that was on the cusp of winning a superbowl ala 1999 – 2001 bucs, then maybe I have my rookie qb play a little conservative. We are not in that spot. Therefore I let my #1 overall pick play without training wheels and if his psyche is damaged due to ints, then he is not the qb we thought or hoped for him to be and we move on. FYI…………….I do not want Winston to learn anything from Glennon. I will take a Brett Farve over Brad Johnson or Glennon any day. I’d much rather have a confident playmaker under center. Just my opinon.
June 4th, 2015 at 3:40 pm
Tiny Tim… If I were a judge and you came before me with that attack on Glennon I would sentence you to 30 days in the hole.
June 4th, 2015 at 4:15 pm
Seriously, Glennon has not done anything but give us his best, which has been pretty decent for a 3rd round QB. So, he’s not a franchise QB… but he’s a player for our team that has earned the respect of his peers and a lot of fans. Let’s quit f-bombing him.
As for how to handle Jameis as a rookie, I say leave the training wheels on a little if he’s showing a tendency to throw the ball to the opponent. Would like to win a few games, and interceptions are killers. If he surprises us with good ball security, then let him open it up a little.
June 4th, 2015 at 5:25 pm
” Perhaps Evans is ready to break out in his second yr”
After I read that, I didnt read another word.
This guy was asleep last yr obviously.
June 4th, 2015 at 5:29 pm
All rookie QB’S don’t struggle, Russell Wilson came into the league as a 3rd round pick and played like a 12 year vet. With the right coaching, a rookie QB has a chance to succeed.
June 5th, 2015 at 9:54 am
@buccfan37
With the way you think its obvious you would never come close to being a judge so i am safe my friend.
@salish_seamonster
Glennon has started 18 games and we as fans can only point to one game where he made a difference. Thats pretty telling if you ask me. No one is saying he is not a back up. Matter of fact, thats all I ever called him when the Glennon Mob was at its loudest as if he was the next Dan marino. But the fact that all he is is a back up just strengthens my argument that using Glennon as a measuring stick for winston in any capacity is crazy. As for me f bombing Glennon, I am only following the lead of the bucs as an organization and locker room. Again, players texting the front office to draft a QB when your boy GLennon is already on the roster should tell you all you need to know about his playing capability as a whole. The players were not even worried about his feelings moving forward. Hence his own teammates said F#$% Glennon. Its as simple as that.