What Does This Stat Mean?
May 22nd, 2015
No quarterback faced as many blitzes per pass attempt last year than Bucs QB Mike Glennon. Turnover-prone Josh McCown wasn’t much better.
As Joe learned way back in high school, stats can be concocted to prove a point. That’s what is known as twisting numbers.
This is also why Joe doesn’t swallow whole the medicine the stat geeks pump out. Often, there is a method behind the numbers.
This came to Joe’s mind when Steve Palazzolo ran numbers and found no quarterback last year got blitzed like Mike Glennon. None. Below are the numbers. Glennon faced a blitz close to half the times he dropped back, which is insane.
You will also notice turnover-prone Josh McCown faced the sixth-highest percentage of blitzes per dropback. These same numberscrunchers claim Glennon had the worst grade when facing a blitz in 2013.
Did defenses throw the kitchen sink at Glennon because he was immobile, or could it be that defenses came at Glennon with everything because they knew they could get pressure due to the sieve of an offensive line?
Or was it a combination?
May 22nd, 2015 at 9:46 am
A combination…..
Weak Oline
Glennon not good under pressure
No running game
Predictable Playcalling
Slow WRs running deep routes
No serious theat with Slot Reciever
Ineffective screens….
Mike Glennon “America’s Blitzed QB”
May 22nd, 2015 at 9:48 am
NEITHER!!!! defenses threw the kitchen sink at glennon because they knew he was gun shy, they knew he was timid and wouldn’t make them pay….don’t wanna hear that garbage about the offensive line because if that was the reason josh mccown would be number 1 and glennon would be 2. that’s the most pathetic considering he only played 6 games. it means defenses had no respect for the skills of “the cannon”
May 22nd, 2015 at 9:49 am
If the offensive line was a sieve, why would a defense have to blitz?
Put me in the group that believes Winston will make our OL better.
May 22nd, 2015 at 9:50 am
It simply means that every team knew it was a jail break with no offensive line and a heartless QB who could not hurt them down the field consistently. Once all the teams realized all you had to do was rattle little mikey and he would check down, duck out of bounds or get sacked it was release the hounds. There is no risk in blitzing a team that has no offensive line and can not hurt you consistently down filed. This stat totally makes sense given the 2 thousand yard receivers but only 2 wins. You can blitz every down with a 5-13 qb and no offensive line.
Glennon will be fine as a backup but never liked the guy from day one and I was correct.
It’s time for America’s Quarterback to step up and prove to Loive and the city of tamp football starts before November, points are not a bad thing and most importantly overcome Loive’s playing not to lose philosophy. The philosophy needs to change to aggressively playing to win.
Happy memorial weekend to all especially fellow vets. Be safe
May 22nd, 2015 at 10:05 am
TBF nailed it!
Oline and slow WR’s running deep routes.
4lyfe bringing the hatred towards MG. lol
he must have little man syndrome.
May 22nd, 2015 at 10:09 am
small sample size. one game vs the steelers and another vs rob ryan’s saints. those are 2 of the more blitz-heavy defenses around and they were MG’s only 2 games of the season
May 22nd, 2015 at 10:21 am
Tampabaybucfan, Thanks for doing this and the others. I needed a good laugh this morning. At least “America’s Blitzed QB” has played against real NFL defenses, has some real Int’s, TD’s, sacks in the NFL record books.
LOL “Mike Glennon “America’s Blitzed QB””
May 22nd, 2015 at 10:27 am
Here is the real reasoning…
The difference between a elite quarterback and an average backup quarterback is the ability to think and react rapidly, to do it wisely and to avoid a drop in ability as he does so.
Let me explain…
Aaron Rodgers is a good example. He can read what’s coming and adjust accordingly most of the time, and his throwing ability is rarely affected as a result of his adjustments. He doesn’t have to do a reset and think the play thru again, or he does it quickly.
Now look at Glennon. A play is called. He steps up to the line. He see’s the blitz coming (they did it constantly, so he should have known anyway). This throws him off. He has to call an adjustment and run the new play through his mind.
He doesn’t do it quickly enough and as a result, he is very slow when the play starts. If he happens to get the ball away, because he is off his game, his passes are not where they should be.
This might be a concern for Winston…
I’m not saying this to judge the guy, because I’m hoping he overcomes it quickly, but Jameis Winston has the same problem (but to a much lesser degree). I think his mind DOES think more rapidly than Mike Glennon’s though, so I believe he will adjust.
In the beginning, in all likelihood, Jameis will look very slow. Think about it. He’ll have to get used to the quicker speed of the NFL. He’ll have less time during plays. It’s a challenge EVERY college QB has to face when coming into the NFL. It’s one Josh McCown never overcame…which is why he is a career backup (and why Glennon is too).
Winston is on a different level than Glennon…
When comparing Winston and Glennon, Jameis comes out ahead of the game in all ways. He’s not mobile, but he at least has more mobility than Glennon. His plays are a little slow at times, but he does think faster than Glennon, so he should be able to improve that.
He is more accurate than Glennon, in short, medium and long range. He has a couple issues with ball placement (and defenses will pick up on that), but I believe he has the ability to improve placement.
The offensive line is going to be key…as we all know. But in more ways than some may understand. Coming out of the gate, there is no way the offensive line will be any good. NO WAY. Why?
Because we’ll have young guys that have to adjust, just like Jameis does. This is why I don’t believe we’ll win the first game. I wish the showdown between Mariota and Winston were at least 6-8 games into the season, but it’s not. Mariota (if he plays) will have the edge simply because of offensive lines and his mobility. The Tampa 2, when early in its development, traditionally struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
Think back to the games against Dante Culpepper and the Vikings. Dude used to kill us every time he ran because our defense was not ready yet. Once they developed it was another story.
That’s the case here right now. We have players adjusting to the Tampa 2. Yes, we brought in some players that know it, but they are unhealthy players. Still, most of them should be healthy in game one at least.
Truth to tell, DEFENSE will be our stronger unit come game one…
Our defense may not be fully developed and we may need a pass rush badly, but it will still be better than our offense in game one. As the season goes on, the offense will pass it by (I hope), but in the beginning it will be all defense. Whether that defense will be good enough to win is up for debate.
May 22nd, 2015 at 10:29 am
lol Robert 9 you really are a simpleminded creature. if I don’t like I don’t like it doesn’t mean im hating….why hate on someone who’s not really good at what he does. if you don’t like tom brady, peyton manning or Andrew luck then that is hating why the hell would anyone hate on glennon moron
May 22nd, 2015 at 10:34 am
What’s interesting to me is Russell Wilson who is a mobile QB with a very good running game is 2nd on the list. Perhaps it’s the lack of respect for his WR’s out in Seattle.
May 22nd, 2015 at 11:05 am
@ Bonzai
“Mariota (if he plays) will have the edge simply because of offensive lines and his mobility.”
This is a common thought that is a big misconception. Mariota; who had multiple NFL players on his O-line last year just like FSU; who had a better run game by far than FSU; who likely faced many less 3rd and longs; took about TWICE as many sacks as Winston last year.
Mariota; when facing pressure; was sacked 23% of the time; the 6th highest rate of QBs in the draft class. When Winston faced pressure he was sacked 11.5% of the time; which was second best in their class.
Straight line speed doesn’t = pocket awareness & decision making. Winston has made a ton of plays with a collapsing line
May 22nd, 2015 at 11:13 am
Lots of astute comments here. I like Glennon but he has the weaknesses described. Winston thinks and reacts well very quickly and I’m glad he is the QB. Glennon may improve with time – a good backup.
May 22nd, 2015 at 11:16 am
It’s clear to me that opposing teams put the heat on Glennon because they knew if they didn’t he was going to burn them downfield for a completion. The truth and nothing but the truth.
May 22nd, 2015 at 12:06 pm
Well yea, why wouldnt they bring heat every other play. Its not like Glennon or Mccown steped up and made them back off. Both men fell right into the oppositions hands. Now what we dont know is what dis Arroyo do to counter. Did he not put his quarterback in posistion to work, or did they just not execute?
Jameis and Koetter, where have you two been all my life!
May 22nd, 2015 at 12:48 pm
I agree with most of your post, BuccaneerBonzai. But there are a few things I see different.
#1. Aaron Rogers is not a good comparison against Glennon. Rogers got to sit for three years while getting a feel for the speed of the game. There may be good examples of 3rd round (or later)QBs who make your argument, but Rogers isn’t one of them.
#2 Glennon has (barely) a full season of games under his belt, arguably under terrible conditions, so it is really hard to tell, for sure, if he is a career backup, future starter, or out of the league in another year.
#3 I remember when the Bucs got Brooks, the ‘mobile’ QBs stopped being a threat. The Buc defense showed the rest of the league how to handle the likes of Michael Vick. Lavonte David is Brooks Part II. *I* do not fear Mariota.
I, too, believe that the defense will be much better, and the pride of the 2015 team, but there should also be a marked improvement on offense, with an OC who is very good, rookies who are healthy and have a year under their belts, and a healthy Martin. With all of that, after his first sixteen starts, Winstons’ stats should be off the charts compared to Glennons’. If, so, then the Bucs are going to challenge for many years.
May 22nd, 2015 at 1:08 pm
With all your football acumen Tmaxcon, it’s surprising no NFL team has snapped you out of the unemployment line.
TBbucfan you definitely were more on point.
You also forgot to mention one point.
When WR’s see a blitz, they are also supposed to adjust their route accordingly.
If they continue to miss seeing the blitz, it certainly encourages the defense to keep throwing it at them.
May 22nd, 2015 at 3:14 pm
It is hard to compare Winston to Glennon since JW hasn’t even played in a preseason game. We could have the next Andrew Luck (hopefully) or we could just as easily have the next Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf. I consider myself optimistic but to crown someone as the next best thing since sliced bread is foolish and dangerous for the player himself. I hope to heck he is more humble than some of the fans here. His welcoming to the NFL could get ugly quick.
May 22nd, 2015 at 7:23 pm
Agree with TBBF! But pick6 makes an excellent point!
Joe’s is always beotching about stats and I understand why, and as pick6 points out if you really want to get some warped stats begin with a small sample size.
May 22nd, 2015 at 7:35 pm
This is why many of us who have been watching this game…regard jayboo’s rookie season as a season NOT to get excited about.
He was blitzed a similar number of times between 2014 and 2015 – the number of sacks taken dropped, but so did his yards per attempt vs the blitz (from 11.8 in 2014 to 8.1 in 2015. Additionally, his percentage of throws of 10 yards or more dropped from 53% in 2014, to 36% in 2015.
Meanwhile, his interceptions nearly doubled in 2015.
Basically, he reduced his number of sacks by turning it over more and checking-down more often.
…and that was against ACC level defenses. He’s going to face better defensive talent every week than he faced in the ACC – and his offensive line is not as equal to the level of competition as it was in college.
It’s no mystery as to what he has in store for him:
The 4-3 defenses are going to eat our young offensive line alive, the heat will come from every direction, and probably as often as Napoleon Dynamite saw it, the 3-4 teams are going to boggle his mind – and that’s where he’ll get to learn all about disguised blitzes, DB’s will play a lot of man/press and the opposing LB’s are going to take away the short/check down passes…if we had a line capable of springing a running game, he might have a chance…but that’s asking a lot of guys who couldn’t do it last season.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not betting the mortgage on him.