2014 Draft Grade Redo
January 25th, 2015
Catching a football in his rookie year was more the exception than the norm for WR Robert Herron.
Joe knows in the fast-food, drive-up, Twitter, instant-everything world we live in, fans cannot rest until they see a draft grade in the waning minutes of a team’s spring draft. Bucs fans are no different.
Joe always believes it is unfair to grade a draft until three years have passed. By that time, it is clear what a player is or can be.
In a step in that direction, helmethair Mel Kiper of BSPN decided to do a re-grading of each team’s 2014 draft.
Joe thinks Kiper was rather generous.
Post-draft grade: B+
Summary: The big question around Tampa Bay last year was whether it’d try to maximize the chances of success of the quarterbacks on the roster by surrounding them with talent or pulling the trigger on a quarterback in the draft. They went with Option A, and while receiver Mike Evans was everything you could hope for out of a No. 7 pick, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins is still just scratching the surface, and we have no idea what the quarterback situation will be going forward, as neither Josh McCown nor Mike Glennon set the world on fire.
Fun hypothetical, Bucs fans: Would you rather have Evans or Teddy Bridgewater? I’m not sure I know the answer, but I do think the Bucs did well with Evans.
As for the rest of the draft, there’s still a lot to find out. Running back Charles Sims is a talent but was limited by an injury. Guard Kadeem Edwards is a wait and see, and that’s really about it from this draft so far. Evans is going to be a star, but this team struggled mightily and got limited return elsewhere compared to other teams with similar records. (It does make you think they could be headed for a big rebound if they get anything from the quarterback position in 2015.)
New grade: B
Joe wouldn’t even go that far. More like a C- at worst and a C at best.
Look, wide receiver Mike Evans was an Albert Pujols moonshot of a home run. After that? The draft steadily dropped off.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins sure looks like he could be a force but the guy has to stay on the field, not in the tub. A rookie who has chronic (thus far) ankle and back problems should send up all sorts of red flags. Running back Charles Sims may be OK, but he sure seemed a fish out of water as if someone with power within the team was forcing his play to prove his pick was worthy.
The rookie offensive linemen? Joe saw them more on milk cartons in Publix than he did on the field.
And sorry, Robert Herron, until he learns to catch the ball is a wasted roster spot. Herron had a bad case of the dropsies in rookie minicamp and never rid himself of this malady. Doesn’t matter how fast you are as a wide receiver if you cannot catch.
So a “B” grade for the 2014 draft is rather generous. At this point.
January 25th, 2015 at 9:06 am
C
January 25th, 2015 at 9:13 am
i like Mike Evans a lot. But he might just have been the 5th best WR drafted last year. It was that deep with WR.
And what happen to, you cannot grade a draft until year 3. with 3 years that gives them time to actually develop into pros. and if you grade year 5 they are off this team, ( at least all of Dominick’s Picks) except for 2 draft picks!
January 25th, 2015 at 9:18 am
“Joe always believes it is unfair to grade a draft until three years have passed. ”
I have not yet reached a decision on Mike Glennon following this advice…..odd hoe Joe and most of the local media has been ragging Glennons ass since his 3rd start…so much for 3 years…a kid with some talent playing the toughest positio on the field…playing behind a patchwork OL and 2 dysfunctional HC’s
January 25th, 2015 at 9:32 am
Joe,
You also have to remember these guys are rookies. To expect some of them to come in and adjust immediately is ridiculous expectations on your part.
Herron didn’t have drop issues in college. I liked his ability to work the middle of the field. I think the speed of the game was just too much for him early on but he was able to create separation.
You see what happens when you give up on players too quickly.
FA signings are a different story as in Collins and Johnson.
January 25th, 2015 at 9:40 am
I can happily grade glennon c or c- a third round pick who will never be a top 15-20 starter in the league just below average. Pretty good for a third round pick tho. He’ll have a long ten year career like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton. Good for him. But not a starter material unless you want to be at the top of the draft and have a bottom ranked offense year in year out.
January 25th, 2015 at 9:47 am
Like I said it is impossible to draw a conclusion on Glennon when factoring in ..he started as a rookie behind a OL that did not exist the following year…behind a HC that was gone the following year
then had a few starts behind the worst OL in the NFL..
I really can’t say what Glennon might be as a NFL QB…
January 25th, 2015 at 9:48 am
The ASJ pick still bothers me, especially when we had a productive pass catching tight end on the roster. But, we traded him away for an expensive stop gap player with only a season or two left in the tank. WTF? Then the re was Sims. WTF x 2? Already had 3 stud RBs on the roster. The Heron pick didnt bother me, I thought ok, this could be our little Welker/D. Jackson type slot threat. But, like most TB players, his talents werent utilized properly.
I really thought they would load up on Oline after gutting ours. Last years draft leaves me worries about this years draft.
January 25th, 2015 at 9:50 am
I am betting our new OC will have very good use for Evans, Jenkins, Sims and Herron.
Any draft where you get Evans has to be considered at least a b.
Excellent job Mr. Smith and Mr. Licht.
Looking forward to a lot more draft success in April with 8 picks (so far). I’m thinking we will add more with a Glennon and Muscle Hamster jettisoning.
January 25th, 2015 at 9:51 am
the bucs need to make like Herrons hands, and drop him off he team lol
January 25th, 2015 at 10:01 am
“Doesn’t matter how fast you are as a wide receiver if you cannot catch.” – Joe
I said the exact same thing when they drafted him.
On your other point, it should only be seen three times daily maximum, and it leaves permanently next week. –Joe
January 25th, 2015 at 10:08 am
L and L need to do much better. Getting only 1 starter out of 3 early picks won’t get it done. I’m not sold on ASJ or Sims. The later picks don’t concern me as much. If Edwards and Pamphile end up as starters eventually than this draft should be considered a success. I sincerely hope they are able to trade down a few spots this year. There will be some good prospects available well into the fourth round.
January 25th, 2015 at 10:10 am
Simms looked very comftorable in the first half of the last game. I would rather have evans over bridgewater
January 25th, 2015 at 10:14 am
Agree with Joe for the most part. The two “missing” o-linemen were both considered raw players though coming out, I don’t think either were expected to make a bit impact last season. Pamphile especially.
January 25th, 2015 at 10:16 am
You should be able to get the #7 pick right, especially in a draft that is “deep” with WRs. Sims was a stupid pick when we needed Oline help in the worst way. A “C-” is appropriate
January 25th, 2015 at 10:21 am
For a QB to shine, he must have receivers and an OL that is good, we now have the receivers and a OC that will change the rest, so we need a QB now.
I prefer Mariota but if Koetter picks Winston, I don’t care because he knows what he is going to do but I will say this, if we had either last year and they were playing our receivers would have caught a lot more balls because the ball would have been thrown better and was more catchable. How many throws did we see McCown throw that were nowhere near the receiver, dozens it seem like per game.
So as long as McCown doesn’t play, the OL improves, we will score because the backs will be running plays other than up the middle almost every time and the QB will have a healthy corp or receivers including backs and maybe even GMC as a tackle eligible receiver, who would want to tackle him?
January 25th, 2015 at 10:25 am
I think the key to our 2014 Draft success lies with the two Olinemen…..you just can’t tell yet…..I was hearing that Pamphile was looking pretty good and should have had more playing opportunities…..and Edwards supposedly has a huge upside….but was sidelined with injury.
I don’t think you can expect to get success from Herron or any 6th rounder for that matter.
I think we will be fine with ASJ & Sims and ME13 will be a superstar for us for years to come….
January 25th, 2015 at 10:28 am
Like mentioned before we were good at TE. ASJ had red flags with injuries coming out which is why I loved the talent but wasn’t crazy on the pick with Tim wright on board. It was also silly to trade him.
I wonder what it would have cost to move up with Seattle instead of Minnesota to grab Teddy.
January 25th, 2015 at 10:49 am
I agree with Joe’s assessment that you can’t fairly grade the draft picks before three years. Yet here we are doing just that and as JoeJoe points out Glennon barely got three starts much less three years!
I think the WalterFootball study should give us all some perspective. They used a ten year period that ended three years ago so everybody had that minimum of three years going back to 1997.
Only 54% of first round picks made it..46% were busts. The 2nd round was virtually the same with 50% making it 50% busts.
And so there is roughly a 50-50 chance that picks in the top two rounds will make it. Again the reason the legendary Bobby Beathard was the king or trade down for multiple picks. If there is only a 50-50 chance it’s nice to have two picks in the hope of finding an NFL quality player.
Based on that stat I absolutely agree with Mr. Bad hair Kiper. B at minimum
Evans assures meeting that 50-50 target. ASF MIGHT add to the % as could Sims. I think either ASF or Sims will be in the league for three years and maybe even longer which would make this draft a huge success.
January 25th, 2015 at 10:55 am
BTW I know I’ve asked you guys before but what up with Mike James?
TBBF pointed out that he WAS used on 3rd and 1 a few times but James is the only back that has the potential to go into beast mode. Lynch and Lacy are not used exclusively on 3rd and short. Alstott wasn’t confined to 3rd and short.
I’m not suggesting that James it the next coming of the A train or Lyncy or Lacy but isn’t there some middle ground. Why didn’t he get some calls on 1st and 2nd down? Is he really that bad?
@JJFN I think I read you say you were a Cane. Have we gotten all we can out of James. The other three backs are pretty similar in style with Martin having the most power, but Martin cannot go into “beast mode” with his size until he gets deep into the secondary. He simply can’t truck an LB like Lynch, Lacy, Alstott and perhaps James?
January 25th, 2015 at 10:57 am
Regardling the Glennon debate here, evaluating a player and grading a draft are two different things. Did the Bucs need to draft a backup QB in the third round of 2013? No. Of course not.
However, Glennon has played to his third-round draft level so far. He is a very solid backup in the NFL. He’ll probably play 10 years in the league. Joe has no problem with Glennon, never has. Joe simply evaluated Glennon as a guy who doesn’t have the potential to be an average NFL starter.
Keep in mind the list of “average” NFL starters includes guys like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. They’re middle-of-the-pack starters.
January 25th, 2015 at 11:15 am
Right on joe, I think we are lucky to have him as a backup.. Cheap enough too..
January 25th, 2015 at 11:37 am
Found something we agree on St.PeteBucsfan. Mike James is way under utilized. IMO he’s the Bucs most complete back, short yardage, pass catching & protection, durability. No reason what so ever to draft RB,Sims. I think the Bucs panicked after the Raiders grabbed QB Carr. They should have picked the best G available.
January 25th, 2015 at 11:57 am
I concur…Glennon is the perfect backup who can be depended on in that roll. Which is why it is silly to trade him for a mid to late round pick as many want to do.
January 25th, 2015 at 12:10 pm
Here’s the thing with glennon: you really think he’s going to stay here 10 years? When his contract is up he’s going to look for an opportunity to start. Rumor had it licht had conversations with Arizona but when we passed on a qb in round 2 as Carr was off the board and we didn’t take garroppolo , glennon was off the table.
I’d gladly trade glennon bc you can get a return and use it else where. No one will take McCown who isn’t a bad back up qb to have mentoring a young qb.
January 25th, 2015 at 12:12 pm
Glennons price tag will be sought after. With the lack of qb options availabe after Winston and mariota expected to go in the top 2, glennon could be marketable to Arizona again for a 4th. Or buffalo for a 4th.
January 25th, 2015 at 12:17 pm
Anyone remember how bad Steve Young looked playing behind a bad Bucs line…..
January 25th, 2015 at 12:54 pm
Mike James simply is a victim of too many healthy running backs last year…..Martin & Rainey healthy early & Sims late…..I don’t think James is a special teams player…but correct me if I’m wrong….just don’t hear his name with ST…
As far as Glennon….he will fetch at least a 3rd….perhaps a 2nd rd pick from the right team….you can add the Rams to the Cardinals as possible suitors…..
Glennon is worth at least his 3rd rd pick in a trade….he has proven that & it is a great supply vs. demand year for QBs….
January 25th, 2015 at 1:36 pm
I think Glennon can play decent behind a really, really good oline.
But we don’t have that.
His long balls are not accurate, and we all know they dude literally can’t scramble, can’t even walk to his left without tripping or running out of bounds for a loss of yards instead of throwing it away.
January 25th, 2015 at 2:07 pm
The Mike Evans pick was a no-brainer as about everybody that does a mock draft had him coming here. I think everything after that is still yet to be determined
January 25th, 2015 at 2:12 pm
@ Unbeleivable
I agree that behind a good O-Line and in a good offensive system Glennon could be very good. That is why we keep hearing that a number of other teams could be interested in him
January 25th, 2015 at 2:20 pm
2nd and 3rd round picks should have been OG and OG.
We wasted picks on Simms and ASJ.
We drafted BPA over need, at a time when we really shouldve drafted players we needed!
January 25th, 2015 at 2:44 pm
I dislike assessing draft classes after only one season. Honestly, it makes more sense to give a firm grading after three seasons, but in any event, I’m okay with a B- as Evans was truly a revelation at wideout and should be a big time weapon for years to come.
Just about everyone else picked is still banking on potential. I think ASJ can have a strong second season and aside from some nagging injuries, I’m not worried that he didn’t set the league on fire, as even guys like Gronk for New England had so so rookie seasons. Sims was hurt for most of the season and had a poor offensive line to work with. I love his pass catching ability, almost to the point that he should just be a slot wideout, but he should be a nice weapon next season if he can stay healthy.
Yeah, a lot of ifs, but it’s only the first season for these guys and Evans played like a beast with mediocre QB play at best. He alone is the reason why this draft class is not a C.
January 25th, 2015 at 3:30 pm
Joe Says:
January 25th, 2015 at 10:57 am
………………….. Joe has no problem with Glennon, never has. Joe simply evaluated Glennon as a guy who doesn’t have the potential to be an average NFL starter.
Keep in mind the list of “average” NFL starters includes guys like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. They’re middle-of-the-pack starters.
———————————————————————————
Extrapolation: Using short-term results to estimate long-term results.
For instance, if Joe Bucs Fan gets 100,000 page views for the month of January, they can likely expect 1.2 million page views for the year; assuming that there is no change in the performance month to month.
For 2014:
Dalton in 16 games for the Bengals: 3398 yards, 19 TDs, 17 INTs.
(2nd round draft choice in his 4th year)
Newton in 14 games for the Panthers: 3127 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs.
(1st round draft choice in his 4th year)
Newton extrapolated to 16 games: 3573 yards, 21 TDs, 13.7 INTs.
Glennon in 5 1/2 games for the Bucs: 1417 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs.
Glennon extrapolated to 16 games: 4122 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INTs.
(3rd round draft choice in his 2nd year)
When I have more time, I’ll update the 2014 QB’s performance comparison.
tickrdr
Still charter member of the MGM. I hope he gets traded.
January 25th, 2015 at 3:37 pm
D+
I gave up on “potential” when BJ Upton was a Ray
January 25th, 2015 at 6:33 pm
C-
Evans is the only player who has shown anything. Potential means nothing against actual production. Lovie and Licht have a lot to prove.
January 25th, 2015 at 7:26 pm
You won’t grade our rookie runningback just say he’s nothing special. Fans set themselves up for disappointment because people say our draft picks aren’t all that God and in the same breathe act as if mike Evans couldn’t possibly be like Michael Clayton. I expect all players to get better year after year until your labeled daquan Bowers
January 25th, 2015 at 11:23 pm
L&L basically went BAP in rounds 2 and 3 last year. Evans was a good choice for #7 overall. I like him a lot better than the other receivers chosen. I still believe we should have went QB last year due to a much better crop of QB’s. We all though in round 3 they should have gotten an OL prospect, but I like the guys they got in the 5th. Both have potential and good GMs can find starting OL players in the later rounds. Cant blame them for trying. I hope after a year under their belts that they do go QB and stop the stupidity of believing they can win with an average QB and no OL. Sorry Mob, Glennon is not the answer. Great back up, but he will not string enough wins to bring us to the play-offs. McCown should be released for his waste of 5 million this season and Lovie should be fired if he makes that same decision again. Stop all the smoke screens and grab Winston with the 1st pick. If he has too many red flags and you don’t feel comfortable, than grab MM. At this point we just want to start winning. Than grab OT, LB, or DE in 2nd round. Hopefully OT, than a DE LB in rounds 3 and 4. Grab your little receiver next and have him go against Murphy and Herron for the 3rd and 4th spot in receiver sets. After that go CB, Safety than another OL or DE project.
January 26th, 2015 at 1:41 am
Wow, I can’t believe all the hate on here regarding ASJ. He is clearly the best TE on the roster and will no doubt be the starter heading into next season. This kid has loads of potential and with a real OC the sky is the limit. He has the talent to be an elite, top-5 TE in the NFL.
January 26th, 2015 at 10:37 am
Not all rookies can produce like Evans in their first year. I think Sims will have a good 2015. Still like the pick. Glennon can play well with some protection. Not sure about ASJ. We’ll see. Hope he breaks out too.
January 26th, 2015 at 5:53 pm
Ah, the good old days when we had #40 pounding the rock.
A 240-pound college RB with 4.7 speed that would hit LB and S head on and make the run game work; and the crowd roared.
Sure would be a nice complement to a new passing offense.
Look at Brown from Texas, Cobb from Minnesota, and Kenny Hilliard from LSU.
One can dream…..
January 27th, 2015 at 1:52 am
I’d give the Bucs a C- and they earned the low pass on the strength of Mike Evans breakout season. Like Mike10 I have also gave up on potential after watching guys like BJ Upton, Dewan Brazelton, and Tim Beckham of the Rays turn from top first rounders to literal busts thus it is hard for me to say anything positive about the Bucs 2nd and 3rd rounders until they actually do something positive on the field and the ****ing Captain Morgan stunt ASJ did almost knocked my draft grade back to a D and made me liken ASJ to another immature rookie; this one in Cleveland who hurt his club more than helped but at least the Browns knew they were getting that from Manziel, I think the Bucs actually thought ASJ was going to make an impact, I thought he would and was fooled….