Your Draft Position Tiebreaker Update
December 16th, 2014
A numbers update for the “Just lose, Baby!” crowd.
The Bucs own the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, if the season ended today.
Why? Because the Bucs would win the tiebreaker for the worst record in the NFL. But understanding that tiebreaker — and how it changes — is driving some fans nuts.
Joe’s going to try to take it down to a third-grade level.
The draft-position tiebreaker for two teams with the same record is “strength of schedule.” That’s defined as the combined winning percentage of each opponent on your 2014 schedule.
HOWEVER, teams you play twice, count twice. So when you add up strength of schedule, the records of division opponents count twice.
Also, strength-of-schedule data looked at right now includes the entire schedule, meaning it factors in opponents not yet played. So when figuring out the Bucs’ current strength of schedule, the Packers are included, as are the Saints twice.
All that ultimately matters is the records of all opponents after the season, not when the Bucs faced a team.
NFL.com posted the latest update in the wee hours today. Here’s the current draft order: Current strength of schedule is in parentheses.
2-11 Teams
Buccaneers (.467 )
Titans (.503)
Jaguars (.538)
Raiders (.571)
3-11 Teams
Redskins (.469)
Jets (.536)
The Titans-Jags game on Thursday night will clarify things a bit. Hopefully, for Bucs fans, the game will end in a tie. Based on the current data, if there’s a winner, then a Titans victory is preferred because their strength of schedule is weaker.
Regardless, there are still plenty of variables in play. The only thing certain is the Bucs will have a top-6 draft pick.
December 16th, 2014 at 11:22 am
The difference between the 1st pick and the 6th pick this year could define this franchise for the next decade.
December 16th, 2014 at 11:26 am
they wont beat the packers, or the saints if they still need to win for playoffs
December 16th, 2014 at 11:28 am
We’d better hope the Saints are still in contention for the division and don’t have it wrapped up – It’s tough to quantify or prove, but I could see them wanting to let up a little bit just to hurt Tampa’s chances of getting a QB.
December 16th, 2014 at 11:37 am
As long as we don’t take Vince Young er I mean Jameis Winston I will be happy.
December 16th, 2014 at 12:36 pm
Sorry to be a wet blanket….but no matter who is picked if we do not get an entirely new coaching staff, we will have the same seriously lame football that we endure every Sunday currently!
The most important piece to the puzzle is a new HC who hires former NFL HC’s as his OC and DC! The first pick in the draft is not going to single handedly win super bowls…i.e. the best QB (in my opinion) that ever threw the ball in Dan Marino did not have the team around him.
We have to have Jim Harbaugh or someone very much like him. I would be so excited about ALL the picks if Team Glazer brought the Buc’s Coach Harbaugh for Christmas, but according to the Big Poodle and way too many people somehow they feel that this disconcerted form of football has somehow earned Lovie another year at 1 Bucs Place! NOT ME!
Fire Lovie NOW! Please! Merry Christmas and God Bless the Glazers next HC!
Greg Schiano
December 16th, 2014 at 12:37 pm
Why does EVERYBODY compare Winston to other black QB’s?
December 16th, 2014 at 1:16 pm
Jax picked Bortles and yet may pick at the exact same spot as last year.
December 16th, 2014 at 1:24 pm
Jaguars and Raiders do not need a QB
so they are dangerous as Number One Pick as “Traders” to anybody
December 16th, 2014 at 1:42 pm
Actually, I hoping the Jags & the Titans win one of the last 2 so that the Bucs also get the 1st pick in the 2nd round too. That could be a lucrative spot for a trade. Just dawned on me…I expect the Bucs to lose their last 2 games. Sad.
December 16th, 2014 at 1:59 pm
Mariota is the next RG3
December 16th, 2014 at 2:22 pm
I’m not as dramatically fired up as most about the difference between 1st and 3rd, but then I’m not desperate for one of the two Heisman trophy winners because of the associated curse and gamble that goes with that kind of selection.
Just know those of you who want Marcus/Jameis (I’d be ok with either but not disappointed if we don’t get one) you can’t also be a Lovie hater.
If you’re a Lovie hater the last thing you want to see is either of the two Heismans. They will immediately be annointed as the franchise savior. The distraction will be huge and obviously if it’s Jameis perhaps even beyond huge.
If we pick a Heisman Lovie gets a third year for sure. All the attention will be away from him and on the new OC and MOST OF ALL on the franchise savior.
When we lose Lovie can then justifiably say he was breaking in a new rookie QB and needs one more year to complete the job.
Just sayin’ if you want Jameis/Marcus be prepared for two more years of Lovie.
BTW I’m rather sanguine about all of this. The chips will fall where they will fall.
December 16th, 2014 at 2:38 pm
ChargedCBH. WINSTON is also compared to Roethlisberger, but for different reasons. Some also say he is a Cosby rape baby.
December 16th, 2014 at 2:40 pm
Watch tampa screw this up and win a game…. I am not a Lovie fan but what ROB said was right… (The difference between the 1st pick and the 6th pick this year could define this franchise for the next decade ) . You have to take a chance with Marcus this Cat could change our franchise for years to come. I am sick and tired of losing and very dissapointed with this year, if Marcus ends up being a bust so be it we have to take that chance. Please dont blow this Tampa
December 16th, 2014 at 2:58 pm
If the Saints clinch, and the Bucs need a loss for the first pick, can you imagine the Saints and Bucs both intentionally trying to lose the game and it ending in a 0-0 tie?
December 16th, 2014 at 3:38 pm
Wow…Why is the conversation always about the QB we don’t need? Seriously…assuming we end up in the top 4, we trade back with a team like the Jets and pick up not one, but TWO disturbingly gigantic human beings…a left tackle and a mobile guard. Glennon can sit back, build a mailbox, and throw for over 67 percent using play action set up by the run which gets paved by a human forklift at guard.
Why not mimic what Dallas has done in the draft recently and build the line…I think there’s a guy down there named Murray who benefitted from a few well chosen draft picks.
December 16th, 2014 at 3:41 pm
what would a Saints win over us week 17 change with regards to SOS?
December 16th, 2014 at 5:34 pm
Give. It. Up. With. Glennon. People. We all saw the underthrows to evans downfield. Just stop
December 16th, 2014 at 7:49 pm
I agree about the Glennon comment – let it go – he should not be the starting qb in Tampa. We gave the kid a shot and it wasn’t very pretty. I understand the team is bad and the line is bad… but Glennon didn’t do anything to secure his starting spot now did he? Draft Marcus! Theses last 2 games – “suck for the duck!”
December 16th, 2014 at 9:44 pm
BucRock asked what a Saints win would do to the Bucs SOS. Well it would strengthen it by adding 2 wins to the SOS as the Saints record is factored into the Bucs’ SOS twice due to the fact they play twice. A lot of variables affect the Bucs’ SOS, even the Bills upset of the Packers last Sunday indirectly helped the Bucs as the SOS will now factor in an 11-4 mark after GB wins rather than a 12-3 mark. That one win may make the difference between who picks first between Tennessee and the Bucs if they tank their last 2 games as well as they have the 2-12 Jags about to knock their SOS downward, possibly past the Bucs….. So it would help the Bucs if the Panthers lose to Cleveland and the ATL gets swept by Carolina and New Orleans (keeping the Saints/Bucs game relevent to the Aints) as every loss by our opponents may be as important as the Bucs own flame job losses…..