QB “Strategy” Or QB Freefall?
April 14th, 2014
Could it be that every single quarterback in the draft will be on the board when it comes time for the Bucs to pick at No. 7 overall?
Well, that’s what fight-instigating, barista-training, pedestrian-bumping, olive oil-lapping, popcorn-munching, coffee-slurping, fried-chicken-eating, oatmeal-loving, circle-jerking, beer-chugging, cricket-watching, scone-loathing, college football-naïve, baseball box score-reading Peter King of SI.com and NBC Sports Fame is hearing from his vast array of sources.
King writes today that QB love is not in the air and the teams picking before the Bucs will go with what they see as surer bets.
5. A few teams with quarterback needs have an interesting strategy. I’ve heard that at least four quarterback-needy teams—Houston (first pick), Jacksonville (3), Cleveland (4) and Oakland (5)—are strongly considering passing on quarterbacks with their first picks and waiting until their second or third selections. Simple reason: They’re not in love with any of the quarterbacks, and there are too many other good players who are surer things than a quarterback you have sincere doubts about. For that reason, there could be more quarterbacks taken in round two than round one. For instance, Jacksonville really likes Jimmy Garoppolo of Eastern Illinois, and he’d likely be there high in the second round when the Jags pick again, at 39.
It intrigues Joe that King called this a “strategy” of the Texans, Jags, Browns and Raiders. That’s some quality spin. The reality is King is hearing guys like Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Football are freefalling and poised for a Brady Quinn Experience come draft day.
Not a lot of teams are in the market for a starting quarterback. Heck, only the Bucs and Vikings are needy in the entire 16-team NFC.
Joe’s not buying any of the smoke King is inhaling and regurgitating. Draft time is the Season of Smoke. The odds of Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Football staring the Bucs in the face at No. 7 are woefully slim.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:16 am
King see’s the same thing we all see, the QB’s in the first round can’t “pull” like the 2nd and 3rd round guys.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:17 am
The second round is going to be as exciting as the first IMO.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:22 am
Teams hire social marketing firms to put smokescreens out to the public. If enough spit hits the fan, said player may drop right to the bucs. holla
April 14th, 2014 at 9:23 am
Bucs are in a great position at 7. If there is a run on QB’s early, elite talent falls to them. If there is NO run on QB’s, their chances of trading back just increased.
The polarizing effect this crop of QB’s has on teams will make this draft very intriguing, moreso than other years.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:27 am
Granted living in NY I don’t get as much local Tampa coverage as most of you, but I can say that it seems like sports writers outside of Tampa feel the Bucs are set at QB between McCown and Glennon. Odd that the local market seems to be the only one who can’t come to terms with the fact that the Bucs are in good shape at the position, especially considering the HC they hired?
April 14th, 2014 at 9:34 am
I have to agree with NY Buc. Out of all the teams mentioned here, the Bucs are probably in the best shape with the McCown/Glennon tandem, and the least likely to draft a QB in the first round.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:36 am
Does this tell you ANYTHING Joe?????
JF is not NOT a top ten selection. Garrappolo in the Second if he is still there. If not we do with Glennon and McCown for a yr
April 14th, 2014 at 9:39 am
So now we judge QBs on what Jax, OAK, and CLE think?
Riiiiiiight.
Draft Manziel.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:43 am
Eh, the new regime doesnt appear to be smitten with Glennon and McCown is no long term solution. The Bucs are looking like prime candidates to land someone who will slip in the early first round, and to be honest, I think any of the three top three QBs look enticing right now to lock down the position for hopefully the next few years.
Looking into my magic ball, Bortles is gonna be the one to take the fall. He is a too scary a prospect to bet on for a top pick in this years draft with so much talent to choose from. With McCown and Tedford, he is perfect to be given time to develop into a friggin stud.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:44 am
IMO I think Bridgewater has bust written all over him.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:44 am
Look for 2-4 trades of those teams (and perhaps the Bucs) back into the first round, between selections 25-32. The reason for this will be two fold, if the QBs are falling, it may be the best chance for a team to secure a “top” guy. Also, teams have a 5th year option on the contract for 1st rounders, which is particularly useful with young QBs, and if a team wants to use that extra year to see if they want to sign this potential Franchise QB to a Franchise contract.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:53 am
I trust King’s take more than most – it’s not like he was making a mock draft but at the same time I can see his logic.
These guys are sure-fire bets to make teams better, why put your team at risk and miss on a better player and get a qb later?
JF is the same thing, I know he is the object of Joe(s) but in the football world, not media pundits, JF is mortal and heavy holes in his game.
I cant wait for the draft in 3 weeks so all of this is history.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:56 am
I’m on the J Football bandwagon now simply because we’ve never had a truly exciting offense.
The busted pick crowd need to own the fact that we have to hit on a pick sooner or later.
April 14th, 2014 at 9:57 am
Sammy@ 7
April 14th, 2014 at 10:02 am
Another interesting thing is if all these potential ‘elite QB’s’ do drop to the mid and later 1st round it blows that theory out of the water that “under Lovie the Bucs will probably never get a chance to draft a QB this high again” hoopla. Good teams find talented players for their system regardless of where they are picking in the draft, so if Lovie truly is the real deal as alot of you say then passing on a QB at pick #7 wouldn’t be a bad move at all considering the more pressing needs the team has at O-Line and WR or if a projected immediate impact guy like Mack or Clowney are still on the board. Let L&L see what they think they have in McCown and Glennon before writing either off.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:11 am
How about this potential scenario:
CLOWNEY
MATTHEWS
MACK
WATKINS
ROBINSON
LEWAN
EVANS OR THE FIRST QB (WHICH IN TEDFORDS SYSTEM IS WHO?)
April 14th, 2014 at 10:38 am
NY Buc is spot on. Only local media doofusses
like JBF, Sean King, and Steve DUImeg
don’t like our solid QB situation. The more
experienced, artful national gurus like
Glennon and say McCown was a good pickup.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:38 am
What is the thing with Garrapolo? Do people not agree that he would be a huge reach in the 2nd? Coming from a nothing school with limited film on him.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:42 am
I sure hope King is correct.
We built a Super Bowl team around guys who fell in the draft.
Evans and Carr would be a nice combo if we could do it. Might work if all the QB’s fall like rocks.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:44 am
@buc…China. gotta quit smoking the opium.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:46 am
Being the leader of Garoppolo mob and thinking of him as the best QB in this draft class along with Bridgewater, I hope Bucs get Teddy if he is available at #7 or trade back in the 1st and get JG. Come draft day people will be surprised at how early Garoppolo will be drafted ahead of other popular QBs like Carr and Bortles.
April 14th, 2014 at 10:55 am
Looking up videos on YouTube isn’t the same thing as looking at actual film. You do understand that guys are paid a lot of money to spend hours upon hours scouting someone, correct?
April 14th, 2014 at 11:00 am
Johnny @ 7
April 14th, 2014 at 11:09 am
I hope we don’t draft Bridgewater. I can’t stand the fact that he has a small frame, small hands (can’t throw without a glove), and doesn’t have very much of a arm. He will probably get crushed when he gets hit the first few times.
April 14th, 2014 at 11:12 am
tmaxcon Says:
April 14th, 2014 at 11:00 am
Johnny @ 7
Who did the Bucs trade down for then???
April 14th, 2014 at 11:17 am
I agree with Tampabaybucfan, Sammy @ 7. This merry go round of possible picks by fans changes with the wind direction. I’ll stay with my original pick if he is still available at 7. His impact would be the most bang for the Bucs.
April 14th, 2014 at 11:21 am
Just a thought…What if Cleveland takes Jonny Football with their first pick and than trades up with Tampa to get Mike Evans? A team bringing in a young QB can help his transition by bringing in his top WR. The Colts did something similar when they got Andrew Luck and than picked up his favorite target (TE out of Stanford). Just so happens Cleveland would have to trade up for this one and they have plenty of picks to bargain with.
April 14th, 2014 at 11:23 am
Shaw is coming to Tampa…
April 14th, 2014 at 11:37 am
anyone but QB @7
April 14th, 2014 at 11:38 am
Draft a qb at 7. Get a wideout later. A lot of WR in this draft
April 14th, 2014 at 11:46 am
Some think the key to the draft is Cleveland. Does anyone else see St. Louis a prime player? I think they use their #2 slot and then try to trade back — or UP — from #12 if they see a stud there. The Bucs could be a willing partner.
April 14th, 2014 at 11:48 am
Agree with what NY Buc says. As far as you don’t get much local Tampa coverage as we do here. Trust me with the internet, 620 & 98.7 the Fan, online newspapers, T.V. Stations video and of course JoeBucsFan, you could live in Alaska and get the same info we get here:))
April 14th, 2014 at 11:54 am
JF means Josh Freeman, We need to pass and Joe needs to fix the “back Button”
April 14th, 2014 at 12:09 pm
There is not a Qb in this draft worthy of a top 10 pick, I might even say not worthy of 1st round pick. Carr or Garoppolo in the 2nd round. Evans in the 1st round.
April 14th, 2014 at 12:12 pm
Evans @7 Oline or trade down
April 14th, 2014 at 12:14 pm
It’s all smoke screens. You can’t believe any of it even though it could be true. I’m going to just wait and see. Don’t believe anything anyone says right now. Lol
April 14th, 2014 at 12:15 pm
This is a QB league, I can not see Jags, Cleveland or Oakland passing on all three QBs there.
April 14th, 2014 at 12:17 pm
All of the teams in the top 5 want to try and sucker someone from the 7-20 range to give up a ton to move up. I suspect someone will, but not to get a QB. I see someone moving up to get Watkins or Evans. Can absolutley see Carolina being that team too. The Bucs want one of Robinson, Matthews or Mack to fall to them, hence the BS bringing in all these QBs routine.
April 14th, 2014 at 12:46 pm
Well, let’s take a look at the six teams picking ahead of the Bucs and project the following scenario:
1. Texans: Jadevon Clowney – This is a deep draft for QBs and with Houston picking at the top of round two, they could either trade back into the first for a QB or just stay where they are to address the need.
2. Rams: A lot of options to consider and I think with Clowney gone at #1, the Rams will keep the pick and select Greg Robinson / Jake Matthews, or Sammy Watkins.
3. Jaguars: I think Khalil Mack would be the preference for Gus Bradley, but I’m not ruling out Mike Evans at this spot, especially if Watkins goes at number two.
4. Browns: Now this is where things get interesting. I personally feel that the Browns will select Derek Carr at some point in the draft, maybe as high as #4 or most likely toward the end of round one. I think the Browns will also sign David Carr as a backup, as it’s been suggested that the Carr brothers could be a package deal. That would give the Browns the ideal third string QB and it would come down to Derek Carr and Brian Hoyer to compete for the starting job. If Watkins and Evans are both gone, the Carr pick seems like a strong possibility. They could also go Johnny Football here or pick from the available offensive linemen. If the Browns pass on a QB, you’ll see a freefall on the position until at least the Bucs pick.
5. Raiders: A QB of course could be in play here, but I really feel that Oakland is comfortable with Schaub for at least a season or two and they’ll address the QB position in the second or third round.
6. Falcons: They aren’t picking a QB but they could trade this pick down if they fail to trade up for Clowney to a team that desires a QB, especially with the Bucs picking right after them.
If a scenario like this plays out, the Bucs will have several QB options to consider, possibly even the immortal Johnny Football which would make the Joes a happy bunch. I don’t think this is far-fetched at all, it only takes one team to make a pick (or not pick a QB) to trigger a chain reaction. I can’t wait to see what happens.
April 14th, 2014 at 1:11 pm
Unrealistic, wishful, bogus scenario, bub.
April 14th, 2014 at 1:54 pm
Joe is obviously too pumped up on Johnny Fruitballs a55gas to see clearly that what King is saying about the QBs is true. It’s been clear for awhile that none of these guys is as highly regarded as Joe thinks thinks. Joe is currently wearing johnny Fruitball’s soiled jockstrap over his face and taking deep breaths.
April 14th, 2014 at 2:00 pm
I can’t stand how most bucs fans are ok with a crap QB it’s getting real old scoring 14 points
April 14th, 2014 at 2:11 pm
I don’t really see the Bucs as a ‘QB needy team’. Trying to upgrade the QB is more of a luxury than a need, IMO. We can definitely go into the season with our current QB’s and have a strong chance of making a playoff run if we get more weapons.
April 14th, 2014 at 2:17 pm
I think that any QB drafted this year could come in and beat out McCown & Glennon. Therefore, we have more pressing needs for an impact player rather than a guy who’s going to ride the bench this year.
April 14th, 2014 at 2:18 pm
*don’t think
April 14th, 2014 at 2:40 pm
This is proof of QB Hype…Articles on Pittsburgh QB Tom Savage getting more requests from teams for visits than he can make. Supposedly there is a deadline and Savage can’t make them all. So his stock his skyrocketing!! I’d rather draft child actor Ben Savage.
April 14th, 2014 at 4:22 pm
Interestingly, there have been several articles written and some “fan” research posted across the internet regarding the draft and success rate by round by position. Of course, it’s all subjective based on criteria for “success”, but quite interesting nonetheless. At FootballsFuture, a Vikings fan posted several years ago a study on the draft (2011). The first round was simply pass/fail, either a player made an impact or not. Later rounds were based on at least one year as a starter (pass).
The smaller sample sizes (OG, C, TE) had very high success rates, but also very limited selections. So, either you are a 1st rounder or not, and it’s pretty obvious. CB had a large number of selections and a very high success rate. OT and QB were pretty much a coin flip in the first round. DL was pretty low success rate, only beaten out by WR (2nd most selections of any group and barely 1 in 3 success rate). Of course, this was a several years ago, but a 10 year draft study (1998-2008) with interesting results.
When looking at later rounds, a few things stand out. Once you get past the 1st round QBs (50/50 shot), chances of even getting a 1 year starter drop to about 1 in 4 or worse in ANY other round. Positions with equal or better success in the 2nd and 3rd round over the 1st round include WR, OT (remains about a 50/50 shot for 3 rounds), CB (2nd round, drop drastically in the 3rd), DE & DT (actually decent results through 5 rounds, just not great in the 1st). The writer never looked at G, C, TE or LB beyond round 1 (interesting note, LB is one of the most successful 1st round options).
Another research by SBNation Seahawks site uses much stricter criteria for success (2 Pro Bowls, 7 year starter, or 125 games played). Data taken was from 1988 onward, and the results calculated in 2009. Similar results, as CB, OL and TE found success in the 2nd round frequently. QB had minimal 2nd round success, but extremely limited success (by those standards) after round 2.
The truth is more a matter of opinion on this subject than black and white, right and wrong. But it seems pretty obvious that some teams get lucky with a QB beyond round one, but it’s not the “norm” to find a great QB later in the draft (no matter how deep the draft). WR is typically found in rnds 2 and 3 (with a high bust rate on 1st rounders). All linemen (both O and D) can have “gems” much deeper in the draft. And if you’re “playing it safe” in the first round, take a LB or DB.
April 14th, 2014 at 4:26 pm
Dang it, posted that in the wrong article….
April 14th, 2014 at 4:42 pm
1st rd carr
2nd rd Kelvin Benjamin wr
3rd Tackle
April 14th, 2014 at 9:11 pm
Trade back if possible for more picks. If we can get one team to trade up it’ll really help us. If we can somehow get 2 to trade up it will be SO much better…