Bucs Defy Football Logic 101
December 10th, 2013
The Bucs have turned NFL logic on its ear by leading the league in takeaways despite having a rotten record.
The adage is as old as football itself: teams that win the turnover battle come out ahead. In fact, listed first in Gen. Robert Neyland’s famed Seven Maxims of Football is the following:
The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.
Joe reminds Bucs fans after reading a Twitter from the Custodian of Canton yesterday, eye-RAH! Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune:
@IKaufmanTBO: The Bucs lead the NFL with 29 takeaways and top the NFC with a plus-13 TO ratio. With the right moves, this could be a scary defense in 2014
First, notice that the Bucs have such a rotten record despite leading the NFL in turnovers? This tells Joe the offense simply has not and cannot capitalize on the turnover margin. We all saw evidence of this Sunday against the bungling Bills.
As far as Kaufman’s hint of “the right moves,” wonder what those right moves would be? The Bucs are not going to draft a defensive back in the first round and perhaps not in the first two days of the draft. Same for linebacker.
Joe isn’t so sure the Bucs will draft a defensive end. If Bucs commander Greg Schiano returns for 2014, Joe is confident he would be under a win-now-or-else edict from Team Glazer. Does Schiano have enough time to wait for a defensive end to develop? Is Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik gun-shy after drafting so many defensive linemen over his tenure with really big one success story (Gerald McCoy)?
Joe knows fans clamor for Jared Allen, who will a free agent but are fans excited for him just because they recognize his name? How much, if anything, does Allen have left in the tank? And Dominik’s Modus operandi generally isn’t to sign old players.
So, might Dominik be coaxed into trading for a defensive end? A lot to chew on in the coming months.
December 10th, 2013 at 9:22 am
Joe, did the stunts for the DL stop last Sunday and this caused the jump, if not what did in your opinion?
As for trading, we do have three really good running backs, but the SF game will tell us how good the defense is.
Yes we will have a scary defense next year, to a lot of teams, it is now.
What is your opinion on the offense, do we need line help the most?
Appreciate your support and passion, OB. Joe rarely answers questions in the comments. Pretty much Joe speaks to big issues in his posts. Thanks. –Joe
December 10th, 2013 at 9:23 am
J. Allen only if it’s a bargain, otherwise pass. We need true speed/high motor monsters on the edge.. Hope Joe is building up a list of the available FA next year as DE.
I miss Bennett…
December 10th, 2013 at 10:07 am
Excited about where our defense is headed. Special teams? Outstanding! Though we need our real kicker back. (that 53 yarder Sunday did not erase our kicker’s ineptitude) Offense? Needs to grow and we need competition on the O-line this off season. imo
December 10th, 2013 at 10:21 am
I could see 6 offensive picks. O-line play-makers. Free agency and trade for defense
December 10th, 2013 at 11:20 am
Well turn overs is just one aspect for a successful defense.
In order for the statement of “Turnovers equals wins” to be true, the big assumption that must be made is that the defense can get off the field on 3rd down, not surrender too many big plays and trade TDs for FGs when on defense.
Then would turnovers equal wins.
The Bucs follies in the first 8 games have largely been about not getting off the filed on 3rd downs, surrendering big plays, and not stopping the TD drives.
December 10th, 2013 at 11:42 am
I would lve to see them go after Michael Johnson or Greg Hardy in free agency as opposed to Jared Allen. They would have to pay more but at least those guys are just entering their prime.
December 10th, 2013 at 12:17 pm
We really should go get a game change DE for the line in free agency.
See, by not having to re-sign Freeman, all of a sudden our team can get that much better with that extra salary!!!
December 10th, 2013 at 12:17 pm
Draft defense?? Maybe in the later rounds but we need depth in the offense (and defense but 54, 59, 93, 24, 27 yea that will do) we need more online help. Nicks is gonna struggle that toe injury will mever go away. Penn is getting older.
December 10th, 2013 at 12:49 pm
Can we draft a new offensive coordinator?
December 10th, 2013 at 1:03 pm
This isn’t as surprising as it seems on the surface.
If my math is correct….19 of the 29 takeaways have come in the last 6 games. It’s not a concidence that they are 4-2 in those games.
December 10th, 2013 at 1:42 pm
i don’t have the exact figures in front of me, but i’m pretty sure that most of the piling on in the turnover margin category has been in the recent hot streak, so the bucs are in line with the conventional wisdom that turnovers = wins. that said, they do need to do more with the ball. in the last 3 games after turnovers in prime position i can recall 2 times that glennon got picked off on the next position and of course the awful fumble vs the panthers. even when we hold onto the ball we rarely turn it into 7 points. i’m not sure how we segue from that thought into the need for a DE. seems like the answer is another offensive weapon, perhaps a TE to give glennon a little more in terms of intermediate throws
December 10th, 2013 at 1:44 pm
*yes i’m aware of Tim Wright, it’s a nice story but i don’t think he is the answer as your primary TE
December 10th, 2013 at 2:14 pm
I agree at this point Wright is not the answer. He has good games but just is not consistent enough to be a starter.
December 10th, 2013 at 2:54 pm
Picking up Jared Allen would almost be like a trade, Jared for Josh.
They can still pick up Clowney and Manziel in the 2nd.
J Allen probably would refuse to run the dreaded gauntlets.
December 10th, 2013 at 3:42 pm
Cliff avril is a free agent pick him up cheap put him at right end with gholston and clayborn at left rotating then kick gholston in to under tackle and put bowers McCoy gholston and avril on passing situation pretty good food for thought
December 10th, 2013 at 5:02 pm
If by some miracle the Bucs can draft Clowney they have to do it. They’ll probably lose at least 2 out of the next three, but he’ll probably be gone. Without a third round pick, I could easily see the Bucs desperately trying to trade down if the perfect pick isn’t available at their spot.
December 10th, 2013 at 6:21 pm
Michael Johnson is a flat-out stud. He was available for us to pick him several times 4 seasons ago in the draft but the entire NFL let him fall to the Bengals in round 3… big mistake. He would absolutely flourish in the Tampa heat and with the talent around him. He’s already a major stud, in Tampa he would be All-Pro… break…the…bank!
December 10th, 2013 at 7:19 pm
Yes, the fans want Jared Allen because they recognize his name…. and his 124 career sacks. The Bucs haven’t had a player with 10 sacks since 2005. Jared Allen has had more than 10 sacks in 7 of his 9 full seasons. He had 12 sacks just last year as a 30 year old and he has only missed 3 games ever.