The Bucs & Drafting Injured Players
April 13th, 2025
The “A” word emerged last week at One Buc Palace.
“Algorithm.” It’s one that makes stat nerds drool and old school fans cry:
Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager Jason Licht used it when referencing ranking players coming out of college and factoring in injury histories.
Cornerback Will Johnson out of Michigan and Alabama inside linebacker terror Jihaad Campbell are two high-profile prospects with injury injury histories in next week’s draft. Each is the kind of player Joe thinks would make Todd Bowles drool.
Campbell is recovering from major shoulder surgery.
“You can only evaluate what [a prospect] puts out there and what he has out there so you weigh it a little bit,” Licht said. “You don’t ideally want to bring in players that have a history of being hurt so we work that into the algorithm, if you will. You ideally want a healthy player so you have to weigh it in a little bit.”
Injuries and college guys are an interesting situation. Teams love guys who play through injuries successfully, but at the same time, they also don’t want guys with injury histories.
Still, everything surrounding an injury must be scrutinized. Is a team really going to fault a player who missed half a season with a bad ankle sprain after he got rolled up on from behind? What about concussions, which by definition are mysterious in nature?
The Bucs drafted Jamel Dean in the third round back in 2019 after serious injuries in college. A year later, Dean was a starting Super Bowl cornerback.
SirVocea Dennis, the Bucs inside linebacker? Long after he was drafted in Round 5 of the 2023 draft, Bucs officials admitted publicly Dennis had a shoulder problem in college. Last year, Dennis had it surgically repaired and now, per Licht, Dennis is a “very good starting linebacker.“
Running back Sean Tucker went undrafted in 2023 because of a heart scare that disappeared. Licht has said publicly that Tucker would be a starter on other teams.
Of course, the health of a potential first-round pick should have its own unique “algorithm” because of the value of the selection.
Regardless, every year healthy college guys find ways to break down under the strain of the next level. It doesn’t mean they’re not valuable. Calijah Kancey (calf) didn’t make it through the first game of his NFL debut, and Vita Vea (calf) couldn’t answer the bell of his NFL opening day.
April 13th, 2025 at 7:38 am
Jalen McMillan’s Senior year was missing a lot of starts but it seemed to have been a one time thing and he is flourishing so it was a good risk. He would have been drafted higher than his two WR teammate if he would have had a fully healthy season. That one worked out for us but I would still like to see him put on some mass.
At least with McMillan he was healthy at the end of that Sr season had a pretty good playoff run to put the Bucs stuff at ease. Definitely a bit harder to use a high pick on someone who is hurt at the time of the draft. Could be a roll of the dice.
April 13th, 2025 at 7:56 am
And Dean has continues to be be a brittle player who can’t be counted on to make it on the field. Hopefully the Bucs will do the right thing for the team.
April 13th, 2025 at 7:58 am
Don’t forget Winfield he fell to the second round because of injuries in college.
April 13th, 2025 at 8:09 am
Interesting article.
I guess the bigger question is not whether the Bucs will draft a player with injury history in the 3rd or 5th round, it is will the Bucs expend a 1st round pick on guys like Jihaad Campbell or Will Johnson with concerning injuries and “without medical records from their recent surgery showing recovery”.
April 13th, 2025 at 8:27 am
I agree with Geno. It seems teams are much more willing to take a risk and draft that injured player in the 2nd or 3rd round who might have been a 1st round pick if healthy. There are a few, but most teams don’t draft someone in the 1st rd who they don’t believe will be ready for the season because GMs get fired over 1st round “busts”.
April 13th, 2025 at 8:30 am
I could see drafting Campbell if he’s viewed as a ‘generational’ kind of player…..is he?
April 13th, 2025 at 8:32 am
I’m really leery of injury problems. I didn’t remember anything about injury concerns with Winfield. It makes me worried to think about him now. I’m leery as can be of Godwin now too. I knew all about Dean being fragile out of college. SVD roo, but at least when you get that far down in the draft I don’t really mind it as much. If we get a few years out of him we did ok. But with Jihaad in the first round? I will worry. Yeah, he would fill a huge need…someday. if we do draft him we need another fairly high ILB to cover for him till he’s done healing..
April 13th, 2025 at 8:36 am
I would love for the Bucs to pick Campbell, but I think the Bucs pass on him in the 1st. In that case, I would like the Bucs to go with the Edge from BC – preferrably after trading down 3-4 positions and picking up an extra 3rd round pick. CB in the 2nd, Winston Jr at Safety and Bazza at ILB in the 3rd. That would be a great day 1 and 2 haul if the board falls right.
April 13th, 2025 at 9:50 am
No Campbell is not viewed as a “generational” kind of player. He is viewed as a highly talented off ball LB for the 2025 draft. Jihaad was not even considered the most NFL ready off ball LB on Alabama’s defense. Deontae Lawson was considered a more developed ILB with better play recognition from a Nick Saban defensive coached system. Prior to deciding to stay in school Lawson was ranked higher on some Big Boards. Campbell’s 4.52 speed compared to Lawson’s 4.60 speed along with Campbell’s pass rushing talent were considered to give a slight athletic edge over Lawson. However Lawson was considered the best option for a day 1 starter being more pro ready.
Point being Campbell is just the highest rated prospect (Jalon Walker more a rusher than lb) at a position of need for Bucs. I like him if his medical report checks out but he is not considered a generational guy. Bucs can do something else @19 IMO
April 13th, 2025 at 11:02 am
We lost a top 10 pick on Devin White.
We can’t use a top 20 pick on an ILB.
The foundation of the house is the defensive line.
Make the guaranteed pick.
Get the best DT available. Get a guaranteed stud on a rookie deal. So we can extend Vea.
I’m all about DT’s! I want two guys!
Hall is too soft.
I miss the days of prime Gholston.
We need a new HAMMER at DE.
Hall is holding us back.
April 13th, 2025 at 11:12 am
avoiding injured guys is like the most important thing in pro sports, isn’t it?
April 13th, 2025 at 11:18 am
Dean had a few injuries from high school and into college so he definitely had an injury history. Dennis shoulder they thought would work out without surgery, it didn’t. I don’t know how “major” the surgery was on Campbell, slight tear, moderate tear, full tear? And a lot of guys don’t have problems after their injury has healed, depends on what the injury was, severity, etc. I think that’s what Licht was talking about for his “algorithm”. All that being said I don’t think they use their top pick on an injured player. Have they ever, I don’t know. It looks like the DL is the healthiest group of players in this years draft, that’s where I think they go 1st, and maybe even 2nd depending on who’s there.
April 13th, 2025 at 11:28 am
Expecting the whole Campbell issue will be cleared up in a week. Thinking there will be a full medical disclosure by him or his agent as to the nature and extent of the injury, and when he can play. Betting, Monday, Tuesday at the latest, next week.
April 13th, 2025 at 11:33 am
Ths is excellent advice
“Teacherman Says:
April 13th, 2025 at 11:02 am
We lost a top 10 pick on Devin White.
We can’t use a top 20 pick on an ILB.
The foundation of the house is the defensive line.
Make the guaranteed pick.
Get the best DT available.”
April 13th, 2025 at 11:37 am
Big Board for potential players at 19 for Bucs:
1. J. Campbell (if medical report checks out)
2. J. Barron
3. Emmanwori
April 13th, 2025 at 1:18 pm
Teacherman
“We lost a top 10 pick on Devin White.”
We also won a SB in which White’s speed and aggression contributed mightily!
A couple more good seasons and it went to his head or perhaps his agents greedy pocketbook.
Whatever I certainly take your point but it’s a bit debateable. I think if someone could get the Bucs over the hump nobody will beotch about where he was drafted.
We mortgaged the franchise HEAVILY to get Tommy B. It was WORTH it to most Bucs fans because of the SB win. I think White gets some Bradylike consideration at obviously a much lower level but the “principle” still applies.
DW45 was a huge part of the SB win. At least he didn’t have a horrid divorce and miss the preseason, shop for another team to join.
April 13th, 2025 at 1:27 pm
Injuries are part of the game. Some dudes never get hurt in college and yet can’t stay healthy in the nfl. Some guys just have some really bad luck. It’s a physical sport. I think you give a guy a chance but at some point if they just can’t stay healthy no matter how good they you just have to move on. What good are they if they can’t stay on the Field
April 13th, 2025 at 9:49 pm
Just draft all injured players this year. BIPA.
April 14th, 2025 at 4:15 am
I was all in on Campbell, and then backed away. However, having this gut feeling that we may see more and more injuries and surgeries coming out of college. Times are a-changing.
#1bucsfan – Agree with you. Last year we had our share of injuries, and so did many other teams. You never know.