Surprising Pass Defense Statistic
April 16th, 2025
“How do you like me now?”
Joe isn’t a huge passer ratings guy. That’s why you rarely read such a thing on this here site.
Simply put: passer ratings are significantly flawed, certainly for career numbers.
For example, browse through the all-time passer ratings leaders. There is a major flaw in how the stat geeks calculate these numbers. That much is obvious.
Deshaun Watson is better than Drew Brees? Tua Tagovailoa is better than Tom Brady? Kyler Murray is better than Joe Montana? Marcus Mariota was better than Dan Marino? Andy Dalton better than Roger Staubach? Stop it!
Now even though individual passer ratings for a career is dubious, Joe does believe the numbers can give someone a ballpark, general idea if a quarterback (or a defense) is having a good or bad day.
For example, if a quarterback has a rating over 100, it’s fair to assume the quarterback had a good day and the defense didn’t.
Something below 80? The quarterback had better days and the defense seemed to play decently.
Joe brings this up because the soon-to-be shuttered 33rd Team, which will halt editorial operations next week (but will continue to compile stats and farm out business-to-business services within the NFL), put out a stat graphic on each starting corner in the NFC South.
Even though the Bucs’ pass defense last year was rancid once again, it seems Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum had OK years. Both had the lowest two passer rating numbers when targeted in the division.
Further, Dean had the lowest passer rating of all eight starting corners in the NFC South.
No, this doesn’t change Joe’s mind that the Bucs should try to upgrade there. Joe has consistently stated a level of satisfacton with Dean’s play. It’s just his inability to stay on the field that has Joe fed up.
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April 16th, 2025 at 12:39 am
It was the middle of the field and flats. We need better LBs and a safety slot. Of course much of this starts up front too. I’m sure passer ratings are heavily influenced by tds. I’d be curious tds allowed by CB. I’ll bet Jamel gave up more yards and less tds,’ cause he lets everyone make the catch then tackles. I’ll bet his tackles are up too.
April 16th, 2025 at 12:58 am
Trading down from 19 and drafting Revel Jr, Porter, or Thomas may be our best bet for Rd 1
April 16th, 2025 at 1:34 am
The problem wasn’t our CBs or nickle.
The problem was our two slow and hobbled safeties.
And Britt.
We were destroyed in the middle of the field.
April 16th, 2025 at 1:37 am
Any statistic…..ANY statistic….especially when it comes to QBs needs to be put in the proper context vis-à-vis the time period in which the player played. There is a significant difference between the era that say CJ Stroud plays in and the one that Johnny U played in. It’s just a different game in so many ways. My two cents.
April 16th, 2025 at 4:03 am
Some stats really are misleading and lead to fallacy. Really depends on your perception at times. Are yall aware that the Bucs averaged more time on offense in the whole division last year. On average no and car averaged an additional possession on defense per game than the Bucs did last season. Also further on QBR stats the Bucs team average is higher than the corners so does that imply that corner is not the true weakness of the defense but another position? How much is the offense liable for stats when they aren’t on the field? A bad defense turned around when old Brady came to town and didn’t turn the ball over late in the year like jameis did.
contrary to popular belief the Bucs secondary performed exceptionally well considering the cards they were dealt. There were players playing who probably no one anticipated. Where are the stats pertaining to facilities and strength and conditioning staff and injuries? How much of player health is because of individuals and how much is attributed to resources and assets in place?
April 16th, 2025 at 5:42 am
Joe should fast before reading the QBR allowed by the starting Safeties using the 2024 numbers from FootballReference.com Advanced Defense statistics.
I think that using the numbers to compare players and position groups on the same team has some value in that the pass rush is the same for all although the opposing player matchups vary.
2024 (Games Missed) QBR Allowed/Yards per Target/Completion %
Starters –
Safety(12) – Winfield(7) 136.5/10.5/73.9%, Whitehead(5) 125.5/9.0/67.6%
ILB(16) – Britt(3) 108.5/8.2/73.3%, David(0) 102.4/7.8/84.6%,
Dennis(13) 101.5/8.4/90.9%(IR 13 games)
Nickel CB – Smith(4) 100.8/6.8/68.8%
CB – Dean 91.2/7.7/69.7%, McCollum 86.9/7.8/57.4%
Reserves –
Safety – Izien(3) 73.0/5.9/64.8%, Merriweather 132.4/9.1/66.7
Edwards 76.4/7.8/50.0%(6 Tgt)
ILB – Russell 115.7/8.4/72.2, Jones 83.3/4.0/100%(2 Tgt)
DB – Hayes 124.5/6.5/66.7%
CB – Funderburk 158.3/12.6/93.8, Thomas 118.7/13.4/100%,
Hall 42.4/1.7/33.3%(3 Tgt – IR 16 games; career 100.0/7.3/64.0%)
New free agent additions –
ILB – Walker- 2024 94.4/8.2/72.5%; Career 99.6/6.4/74.9%
CB – Vildor – 2024 (25 Tgts) 62.1/5.6/44%; Career (159 Tgts) 115.1/8.6/62.9%
For entire teams, some 2024 Opponent Average Team Passer Ratings were:
1. Houston – 81.5, 2. Philly – 81.6,
5. Saints – 84.8
13. Seahawks – 90.9,
20. Buffalo – 95.0
26. TAMPA – 97.3
29. Falcons – 100.2
32. Panthers – 105.4
Tampa’s starting CB’s we’re not the strength last year, not the problem, and that includes the availability part of ability.
Izien was high quality depth at Safety/Nickel CB in 10 starts. Edwards was high quality depth in 2 starts.
The Bucs greatest weakness was Safety – hopefully, Winfield is healthy and plays well this year. Hopefully, Izien starts at Safety this year beside Winfield.
To improve Tampa’s 26th ranked QBR from 97.3, the Bucs need the correct:
Safety – the best fit is Xavier Watts from Notre Dame in the early second round. First rounders Emmanwori and Starks are extraordinary athletes but they are vulnerable in man-to-man coverage – Watts is less extraordinary, but he best fits the Bucs needs. Andrew Mukuba would be Plan B in the mid third round. Plan C would be Billy Bowman in the fourth round.
ILB – Jihaad Campbell is the best fit at ILB. Jalon Walker would be Plan B. Chris Paul in the third round would be Plan C. Jeffery Bassa would be Plan D. Knight in the second round will get burned in man coverage, but he could be a two down player rotating with a better coverage ILB.
If the Bucs get Campbell in the first round, they should move up in the second to get Watts. If the Bucs cannot get Campbell in the first round, they should try to trade back and position themselves to take Watts at the end of the first round or the start of the second round.
April 16th, 2025 at 7:14 am
Just like most passing stats, passer rating for quarterbacks are higher in recent years compared to past years.
Its as simple as they have made it easier and easier to pass.
Its as simple as there are more and better receivers.
Its as simple as they dont let defensive backs unload on receivers like they did in the past.
If we look at passer ratings year by year we see this.
For instance.
Roger Staubach was 1st in passer rating 7 of 10 years.
Dan Marino was top 10 in passer rating in 10 of 12 straight years and usually in top 5. Guys like Montana, Fouts, and Esiason were ahead of him some years.
Tom Brady was top 10 in passer rating in 16 of 17 years. The year he missed was when he got injured in the 1st quarter of the 1st game of 2008.
Drew Brees was in top 6 in passer rating for 10 straight years.
Peyton Manning was in the top 5 of passer rating for 7 straight years.
April 16th, 2025 at 7:29 am
trade back incoming. If there is a QB there then a QB hungry team could give us a ton of picks for it. Giants?
April 16th, 2025 at 7:33 am
Pro-Football-Reference (PFR) gives an interesting stat that rarely seems to come up in various analyses: 17-game Average over a player’s career. It’s nothing more than the player’s career stats extrapolated/projected over a full 17 games. It ends up being a way to compare players (CBs in this case) with a common frame of reference (17 games using a career look).
Jamel Dean has done quite well over his career (6 years). In a full 17-games, he would’ve been targeted 78 times & given up 46 completions, allowing 58.7% completion rate. That would’ve equated to 518 yards allowed & 3 TDs average, for an average yards/completion of 11.4 and an average 6.7 Yards/Target. His average tackles (solo & assist) would’ve been 65.
Zyon McCollum has obviously had a much shorter career (3 years) but his 17-game average is nearly identical to Jamel’s. He would’ve been targeted 80 times with 48 completions allowed, for a 59.9% completion rate. That would’ve equated to 607 yards allowed & 3 TDs average, for an average yards/completion of 12.6 and an average 7.6 Yards/Target. His average tackles (solo & assist) would’ve been 63.
IOW the two of them are quite similar from a stats perspective. Of course if you look at some of the fill-ins (like Funderburk or Hayes) you get a whole different perspective. Worth a look-see, and maybe after that folks will realize why we’re keeping Jamel Dean.
April 16th, 2025 at 7:41 am
Toopanca:
I think your general post has an interesting perspective.
But you are certainly mixing up QBR with passer rating (when targeted).
QBR is an ESPN proprietary statistic that ONLY measures quarterbacks. It has never been used by anyone including profootball reference to measure defenders.
That number has to be passer rating allowed, which is the QB rating when throwing at that defender.
I think the way the Bowles 3-4 defense is run, the Bucs safeties and linebackers will drop into zone reads. For instance Winfield is always going to let the guy in front of him catch the ball short of the first down and then make sure that guy is tackled short of the 1st down. That will allow his passer rating and completion percentage to be higher.
That is not to say that Winfield had a good year. I am though 100 percent certain that the way Bowles has played his defense in the past, that is a part of the reason for Winfields “higher” passing rating and completion percentage.
Under your scenario, Winfield was JAG in the 2023 season as well and not the best safety in the league or 5th in defensive player of the year as he received.
April 16th, 2025 at 7:53 am
Mebbe it doesn’t count the snaps where Dean is 10+ yards off the receiver…
April 16th, 2025 at 8:15 am
This squares with the earlier info about our LBs being the most vulnerable part of our pass defense (by far).
April 16th, 2025 at 8:30 am
Winfield definitely had a down year, I don’t think he fully got his speed back post injury. Wasn’t anything mental, he just had a bad injury and never fully recovered in the same season.
That being said, in the NFL the safety position is always going to give up higher QBR and probably completion percentage ratings to the QB than any other position. It’s going to be extremely hard to know who the safety is supposed to cover because they’re the safety, they cover the guy going deep, they go after the guy running the ball and sometimes they blitz the QB. So unless the people rating this know the exact defensive play called, I don’t know how they would ever be able to come up with a number that would be the least bit accurate for the safety position. Frequently it’s a safety stopping a guy from scoring a touchdown (2023 Windield). Was it his fault that the WR/RB caught the ball in the first place or the QB broke containment and scrambled for the pylon?
The article was comparing cornerbacks in our division to other cornerbacks in our division. Probably the fairest thing to do. It just shows our cornerbacks weren’t awful, it was our coverage of the short pass and how much time we gave the quarterback to throw that killed us. Improve the past rush (Reddick) and have better coverage linebackers (Walker + healthy Dennis) will fix that problem. We’re already a better team… we know our staff drafts with the best of them… can we stay healthy in 2025?
April 16th, 2025 at 8:37 am
So you have the two best corners on passer ratings on the worst pass defense. I guess Braswell was terrible in coverage, we need better play from these guys. I think Vea should probably be in more pass coverage. Kidding guys. But that shows you what a horse spit stats are. Numbers are numbers and it is always true in math, but you throw human elements in with numbers and your algorithms don’t compute they are worthless most of time.