Surprise!
April 16th, 2025
Notre Dame S Xavier Watts.
The only way this would be surprising is if someone didn’t watch the Bucs last year and didn’t know Jordan Whitehead was released earlier this spring.
Yes, the PFF tribe weighed in, and this one comes from Dalton Wasserman. Joe is guessing Wasserman is like Joe and is simply mocked out. The draft cannot get here soon enough.
(There is no reason the NFL cannot move up the draft two weeks. The drag between the combine and the draft, only to be broken up briefly by the owners meetings, is beyond cumbersome.)
So Wasserman decided to do a schlock draft by having each team pick a surprise player (see what Joe wrote about being mocked out?). For Wasserman, Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht will surprise by picking Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts.
Tampa Bay moved Christian Izien to safety last season … from his impressive rookie campaign as a slot defender. Drafting Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts would allow Antoine Winfield Jr. to move freely around the formation while giving the Bucs a true ball hawk on the back end, as Watts racked up 13 interceptions over the past two seasons.
Joe actually thinks safety is a need. So Joe doesn’t know why this potential pick of Watts is any sort of surprise.
Yeah, Tykee Smith wants to play there, but Joe would like to see Smith play a full season first before Bowles starts experimenting by having him move around.
Bowles spoke this month about the need for a ballhawk and, of course, for more takeaways. Well, why not draft a takeaway artist who is tall, the way Bowles likes his defensive backs?
"I kinda like Watts more than I like Starks"
NFL Films' @gregcosell shares his praise for Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts🔊⬇️#Billsmafia | #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/dF6SKfb64B
— One Bills Live (@OneBillsLive) April 4, 2025
April 16th, 2025 at 9:38 am
I like Watts, but i really like Andrew Mukuba out of Texas
April 16th, 2025 at 9:41 am
Xavier Watts started his career and was recruited as a WR but switch over to DB, therefore he should have pretty good hands. I am all in!
April 16th, 2025 at 9:42 am
Smith will be the starting safety not only does he want to be on the field more so does the bucs
April 16th, 2025 at 9:42 am
One of the leaders on missed tackles … Not a great trend for a safety, but what do I know … I’m not sure why Jahdae Barron is being written off on these interwebs … Tre Amos was embraced as an SEC sees it all CB .. Barron was postured as a combine workout warrior yet quietly led that same SEC in pickoffs
April 16th, 2025 at 9:44 am
😂 Agree about the mock OD but if you think it’s bad now just wait for another week of it!
I am a day out of Bermuda heading to England, because of the time difference I won’t know what the Bucs did on draft night until I wake up in the morning and NO I am
Not going to stay up into the wee hours of the morning ….
LB3 @ 19
April 16th, 2025 at 9:53 am
Just. Drink. Heavily. Copiously. Excessively.
April 16th, 2025 at 9:53 am
anything to improve the 29th Ranked Pass Defense that can never get off the field on 3rd downs and gives way too much cushion to WR’s. This is a Super Bowl team with even a halfway decent Pass Defense. We need a Pass Rush when it matters most! Go Bucs!!
April 16th, 2025 at 9:59 am
S is the only position we have no established starter beyond Winfield. On paper it’s probably the biggest need and if you assume it’ll be Tykee then we have a nickle corner opening.
Either way we need a DB and I’ll be shocked if they don’t draft a S and a CB. They may only draft one in the first 4 rounds if the guy can play both positions like a Starks or Barron, but if I had to guess we will draft at least one S & one CB.
April 16th, 2025 at 10:00 am
It’s all about PRIORITIES; drafting which player will make the biggest difference to our defense?
Bucs had an inconsistent pass rush last season, and especially on those 40% def snaps when Vea wasn’t in there. Adding a beastly DT/NT to rotate with him (and be on the field with him on 4th downs) would make a huge difference in our pass rush. We saw clearly how having 2 beastly DTs can make a huge difference when Suh was on the team with Vea. Find Suh’s replacement.
Same can be said though for MLB. The middle of our defense was really picked on last season, and that includes LVD who last season allowed 84.6% completions, the highest of his career. The biggest part of that however is that LVD blitzed 80 times last season, the most of his career (can only imagine how many times he had to fake blitzing & that impacted his coverage). Bucs need a difference-maker in the middle, and for all the love that SVD has been shown, he has yet to prove his durability.
Same can be said for CBs & Safeties. Anyone could make the case that the Bucs have an open starter spot at MLB, CB & Safety, as well as key rotational spots at DT/NT & Edge. It’s just a matter of where Bucs’ hierarchy wants to place the priorities.
April 16th, 2025 at 10:04 am
Joe, I agree. A pick of a safety wouldn’t shock me, especially a solid one. If they positionally pick edge, CB, ILB or DT… Wouldn’t be shocked. WR would be somewhat shocking but would depend on the situation. Of course, they can pick a position that would make sense and then the particular player is picked way too early, but the Bucs don’t do that. That is something a team from New York or Cleveland would do.
Shocking at 19 positionally… in order:
IOL
TE
RB
OT
QB
Kicker/punter
Longsnapper
LOL
April 16th, 2025 at 10:17 am
Starks or Emman please….if they’re gone, Harmon….we’ll hit S later
April 16th, 2025 at 10:21 am
Between drinks, read DR’s post.
April 16th, 2025 at 10:21 am
Tommy Bahama makes a great tall lawn chair….we could use them to help our pass defense…
April 16th, 2025 at 10:33 am
I think DK Kaufman is a sleeper S & he’s gonna go later in the draft or maybe even undrafted.
April 16th, 2025 at 10:42 am
Surprised no one has commented on Wasserman’s misstatement…
This guy is not well informed. Izien was always listed as a safety and trained as a safety and nickel since the start of his rookie year. So he wasn’t “moved” there, he just saw more snaps there.
April 16th, 2025 at 10:48 am
Where all the Tampa football experts who 2 years ago wanted the Bucs to draft a “franchise QB”? Mayfield on these pages now seems to be accepted as the franchise QB. Only the most cynical, uniformed and foolish seem to think otherwise.
April 16th, 2025 at 10:49 am
Watts hasn’t appeared picked as high as 19 in any of the mocks I’ve seen. Of course, the player evaluations in the media are not the same as that in NFL front offices. It’s totally possible the Bucs are in love with him, but might wait until round 2 to find him.
April 16th, 2025 at 10:53 am
NO! I don’t want to be surprised at #19. I want to be happy. Draft some heavy beef in the line. Preferably defense, however some great OLs also.
April 16th, 2025 at 11:03 am
If they go safety or CB or ILB or even D line, I would not have a problem with any of it as long as some of the other ones are also selected as the draft goes on
April 16th, 2025 at 11:07 am
Jahdae Barron 1st round?, Jacob Parrish 3rd/4th round, Andrew Mukuba 3rd/4th round – draft one of these three to play the nickel/safety hybrid.
I really want Darien Porter in the 2nd round to groom at outside corner.
Demetrius Knight in the 3rd/4th round.
April 16th, 2025 at 11:09 am
“Just win baby!”
It’s clear the Bucs offense is loaded!!! It’s just as clear the defense is not!!!
Not sure why WR is even debated. I’m not a load up and mortgage the farm for a SB next year. I want the Bucs to have a legitmate shot at the SB EVERY year.
To do that does require planning ahead and I get the concern over CG14 and ME.
But that concern doesn’t effect THIS year at all and probably won’t next either.
Now can one of you draft gurus, I’m not being snarky, many of you are really super in your knowledge of college prospects. I am not. I can only regurgitate what I read here and on the interwebs and try to catch up.
So here is the question. What kind of WR talent will be coming out NEXT YEAR?
IE there’s plenty of time to address WR…the D sucks right NOW…follow D.R.s recipe and with the right picks the D could improve dramatically. Isn’t that the goal?
April 16th, 2025 at 11:12 am
“One of the leaders on missed tackles”
He cut his missed tackle rate from 18.8% his first year as a starter to 12.6% last year, his second year as a starter. He’s a converted WR and still learning.
The top 5 safeties are all talented (Starks, Emmon, Watts, Mukuba, and Winston JR) and I hope the Bucs grab one of them, preferably in the 2nd.
April 16th, 2025 at 11:25 am
AlabamaBucsFan,
NEWSFLASH: One of the main/only reasons a WR gets switched over to DB is because they have terrible hands.
April 16th, 2025 at 11:34 am
First Round? That would be no.
April 16th, 2025 at 11:39 am
Drafting a top Safety automatically improves our Secondary.
Tykee could play more at Nickel, which allows Izien more snaps even at S.
This would help our depth as well and give us a ball hawk.
Even if Smith moves to S, Bucs still need to draft a backup S.
CB, S, DL, ILB depth are top draft needs.
Take these and a WR w first 5 picks.
Loving the flexibility we have entering this draft; but Secondary depth top holes on Defense. Prioritize these and 4th ILB and backup DT can be had in Rounds 3-5 along w Offensive Weapon.
Liking Nick or Starks in Round 1, good S range where we’re sitting at
April 16th, 2025 at 11:45 am
Like Watts too, could probably trade back for him.
Feels like the Bucs may move around to nail their CB and S picks
April 16th, 2025 at 11:45 am
If they moved up the draft this year it would have been on The Masters weekend. Just sayin.
April 16th, 2025 at 11:47 am
@DR. A lot of the names being bandied about here are tantalizing yet you keep banging the drum for another Beastly DT. I’m with you 100%!
Throw a Kenneth Grant in there, let Kancey with his speed and moves, spend some time at defensive end opposite Reddick. Vea and Grant could push the pocket into the quarterback’s face and force him to either side. Opposing quarterbacks have been taking lunch breaks back there while they wait for a play to develop. I think this move would make the biggest impact on our defense this year
April 16th, 2025 at 11:53 am
DR?
Is this just a hypothesis by you: “Bucs had an inconsistent pass rush last season, and especially on those 40% def snaps when Vea wasn’t in there”
April 16th, 2025 at 12:09 pm
I think safety and corner are in play for the Bucs – but also depending on how the draft board plays out – I could also see the Bucs not addressing either in the 1st 4 rounds.
A sleeper corner to me is UTSA corner Zah Frazier.
He fits the Bowles history of taking about a year to a little less known corner that has the physical tools into a contributor by the end of the season and a starter the following season.
Frazier history is mostly horrible until last year when at the old age of 24, he seems to finally figured it all out. Bowles has done well developing this McCollum type into above average corners.
April 16th, 2025 at 12:17 pm
I like Watts but he’s the guy that everyone thinks is going to be drafted to their team. Every team with any safety need is pretty sure he’s going to be their pick late 2nd or early 3rd. . This tells me he’s going to go early 2nd round. I don’t think the Bucs will get a chance to pick him with their 2nd Rd pick.
Smith’s natural position IS Saftey. Bowles already moved him out of his position to make him a nickel. He wants to play Safety, the team wants him on the field more. It makes sense. That said, I’m not against picking up another talented safety. Like CB you can’t have too many. Especially versatile ones.
April 16th, 2025 at 12:19 pm
Great video of Watts and it also shows his good attitude and embracing his team. Like him too.
April 16th, 2025 at 12:20 pm
Hey Joe,
Did you see McKiper McShay’s Mock draft #143 verson 3 that has the Bucs trading up 6 picks, then trading down 4 picks, then trading down another 2 picks, then trading all the picks and moving the franchise to Mexico City for the rights to Tom Brady, Brady Quinn, Quinn Buckner, Bill Buckner & Buckner the Wonder Dog?
Do you think the Bucs would have been better off staying put at pick 19?
April 16th, 2025 at 12:23 pm
I do think that if the Bucs were fortunate enough to get him or Starks they’d probably play nickel for us. Kinda rich to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on a part time (75%) starter. Not against it but probably not my first choice.
April 16th, 2025 at 12:25 pm
Yes Filthy I think Joe misunderstood what the writer was saying. Don’t think he was referring to the position as a surprise, I think he was implying that the player drafted would be the surprise. I have not seen Watts name on any first round mocks I have looked at. At least none where he was drafted at 19 or higher.
April 16th, 2025 at 1:21 pm
geno711, I wondered the same thing about DR statement about 40 percent of snaps Vea wasn’t in there. One thing I can state is we weren’t as good of a defense when he wasn’t in there. And it doesn’t matter what the stats say. Yes, it would be nice to find someone very similar to Vea. For depth as well as the future. And we won’t find someone like him later in the draft.
April 16th, 2025 at 1:26 pm
Lord Cornelius Says:
“S is the only position we have no established starter beyond Winfield. On paper it’s probably the biggest need and if you assume it’ll be Tykee then we have a nickle corner opening.”
I see it quite differently.
Winfield is an All Pro FS. Tykee Smith balled as a rookie and will make a big jump and bigger impact this year in a starting role at SS. Izien is solid in a starting slot role and plays either Safety spot well as a backup. All 3 of those guys can play FS, SS or slot CB on any given play. Guarantee you Todd is happy to have those 3 players as his starters coming into the draft.
Additionally – Merriweather is a very solid #4 guy who can absolutely hold his own playing NFL defense – and look pretty good doing it if called upon. Also a good special teamer as are all of these Safeties if you were to dare put them out there….
There is room for 1 more versatile, talented Safety to sort of complete the package if you will. Perhaps creating strong competition with Smith and/or Izien for starting snaps or at worst competing with Merriweather for the final roster spot if the team decides to only keep 4 Safeties…
Watts is a 2nd rd pick – but its unlikely he will last until the Bucs are on the clock. If Jason and Todd were targeting this particular player – it would likely need to involve either a trade up by Jason in rd 2 – or a big trade down in rd 1 that nets an extra 2nd rd pick no lower than #40
It all depends on who is available of course – but to me, getting a higher end CB or ILB talent in round 2 should take priority over trying to upgrade the Safety room.
I expect Jason to select either an Edge player or a NT/DT in the 1st round. The man knows how to prioritize the trenches and won’t disappoint methinks in that regard this year…..
April 16th, 2025 at 1:27 pm
Kenton – I agree with you – eyeball observation is a fair assessment technique.
Maybe that was all DR was using — but he comes with as much statistical analysis as anyone – so I was thinking that maybe there was something else.
April 16th, 2025 at 1:35 pm
They better be picking a LB because outside of David we have no one. Need help all over the defense. DE and Also a CB to replace Dean since he is broken glass that can’t play more than 6 games a season.
April 16th, 2025 at 1:54 pm
Yea sorry Tykee smith is a turnover machine, he needs to be on the field full time and at strong safety he’s closer to the line of scrimmage. You don’t need a third round pick slot corner
April 16th, 2025 at 1:59 pm
Yeah geno711 DR uses facts and common sense in conjunction that is hard to find fault with. A little wisdom adds the cherry on top. My 2 cents would be we are close-but not close enough. We can get better but to do so we have to see some new faces on defense. Reddick is one new face. Our corners need competition-both sides. Maybe one new face there. LaVontes buddy from the Dolphins may or may not be one and SVD is a question mark. Need another MLB. Darn sure need more beef on the DL. I also think we should be clear that we’re close. As DR said let’s not forget our priorities. Don’t want to lose sight of those priorities. If we get 3 points against better per game defensively then returning the entire offense with Godwin playing we should improve our points per game offensively to 31 points per game. My view, and I’ve got alot of wisdom (age) is that we may just be the best team in the league this year.
April 16th, 2025 at 2:25 pm
Bucs draft a top Corner to challenge, backup, and or replace Dean,
A top Safety to fill out depth, dime and even push to start,
A DT/DE to challenge Hall and complete IDL depth,
An ILB good enough to Start and maybe eventually heir David,
A playmaker WR ….
It’s on and Poppin …
Bout to be alotta fun to see how Licht and Bowles play this ..
April 16th, 2025 at 3:52 pm
DR has written the word “beastly” More in the last month than I have in my entire life. And I am a writer by profession. But I don’t disagree.
April 16th, 2025 at 9:15 pm
Is Dean gone yet?
April 16th, 2025 at 10:31 pm
Oh man 13 picks in 2 seasons that’s pretty impressive.
April 17th, 2025 at 8:16 am
No they can’t move the draft. They do not want to compete with the Masters or NCAAs.