NextGen Stats Agree: Bucs Pass Defense Was A #Fail
March 9th, 2025
Ugly pass defense stats.
What is the opposite of success? Failure. And, per NextGen Stats, the Bucs were one big #Fail defending the pass in 2024.
For the second straight season, the Bucs finished fourth-worst in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.
(Interesting aside: in 2023, the only three teams that allowed more passing yards per game than the Bucs either had a new defensive coordinator or a new head coach in 2024. Those same teams all made the playoffs last year.)
NextGen Stats reinforces the “baseball card stats” showing how bad the Bucs pass defense was last season. Per NextGen, the Bucs allowed the sixth-highest passing success rate.
Passing success rate is when an opponent allows at least 40 percent of yards needed to convert on first downs, 60 percent on second downs and 100 percent on third or fourth downs.
So it didn’t matter what down teams threw on the Bucs, they had success.
As Joe has pointed out many times, the Bucs need help on all three levels of the defense and Joe believes the NextGen Stats’ data backs that up.
So, yeah, the Bucs had a very high failure rate defending the pass.
So yeah, the Bucs need an edge rusher.
And they need help at linebacker, even with Lavonte David coming back. One could argue the Bucs need help at both safety and corner.
Could a healthy, rejuvenated Antoine Winfield be the answer? Yes, Joe knows Winfield was hurt all year last year. But he was a far, far cry from All-Pro level he was in 2023.
March 9th, 2025 at 8:12 am
So this is supposed to be a news flash? We are so thin with talent on D we’re lucky to have won the division. Was saying that all last season while the Bowles haters were dumping on coach. Now heading into the draft there’s some chance we go all D with all our picks, because now suddenly we’ve figured out we’re short on talent on D. We need lots of new players, not one high priced FA or one home run RD1 pick.
March 9th, 2025 at 8:33 am
I’d argue that secondary is a much bigger need than edge rush. Get some guys covered and watch the pass rush improve naturally.
March 9th, 2025 at 8:48 am
I believe getting levante David some help so he can rotate out and we need an edge rusher opposite side of Yaya Diaby. That alone will make our secondary better they won’t have to try to cover so long if we can scramble or press the quarterback. With that being said it kind of sucks to say that we need to move on from Jamal Dean and replace with another good corner rookie or free agent. I say it hurts because I just rewatched 2019 game against Seahawks and dude look like a stud in his rookie year. He even looked bigger than he does now shame he regressed and injury prone does make him a bigger liability
March 9th, 2025 at 8:54 am
And, of course, this #fail has nothing to do with the D coaches or the front office.
March 9th, 2025 at 9:19 am
Seems like the only game plan was “keep them in front of you. WAY in front of you”
March 9th, 2025 at 9:22 am
I’m one of the few Buc fans who believes we should keep J. Dean.
Yes – he missed a few games.
True – he doesn’t get many INTs.
But he is still a solid CB and graded out (PFF) as a top 25 CB with a 75.5.
I’ve seen some suggest we bring in C. Ward to replace Dean. He played less snaps than Dean and was the 144th ranked CB with a 56.2.
I would keep Dean and draft a CB in rounds 1-3 to play the NCB position as T. Smith was moved to safety.
Why create a whole in an already weakened DB depth chart and replace him with someone who is worse?
That is just dumb.
March 9th, 2025 at 9:23 am
*hole not whole…
lol.
March 9th, 2025 at 9:34 am
Bowles defensive philosophy would be great if it were 1993.
He’s basically waved the white flag and allowed teams to throw the ball up and down the field between the 20’s and then hopes for a missed field goal attempt at the end of the drive.
I don’t blame the players that regress the longer they play for him. They become zombies on the field. Every defensive series seems to be a minimum of 10 plays and the only goal is to keep the ball in front of you. Their only joy is to get an occasional TFL, just to have the next play, usually a 2nd or 3rd and long, get converted easily against soft coverage.
Bowles doesn’t trust his front four to get pressure, and the front four doesn’t trust Bolwes to not leave them out to dry with soft coverage.
A stud defensive end will not fix this defense. A ridiculous amount of back 7 depth is the only thing that will keep Bowles from going into turtle mode any time there is an injury.
March 9th, 2025 at 10:20 am
Bowles failed. What a surprise. I thought he was a Guru.
March 9th, 2025 at 10:37 am
The Bowel Movement must be flushed.
March 9th, 2025 at 11:11 am
Something about the scheme was looking like a mess as well, needs some updating
March 9th, 2025 at 11:26 am
Todd Bowles sampled the bend but don’t break defense and like todays music, it was woefully inadequate
March 9th, 2025 at 11:49 am
“I’m one of the few Buc fans who believes we should keep J. Dean”
Yeah, I’m not completely down on him either. Health and high salary are the biggest drawbacks. I can live with our the picks. In the playoff game, the broadcasters mentioned that he didn’t give up a touchdown all year.
As soon as he got injured, his replacement gives up a TD. Points are more important than picks.
March 9th, 2025 at 11:52 am
HC Grover … ‘Bowles failed. What a surprise. I thought he was a Guru.’
The primary measure of success for any defense is POINTS ALLOWED. You don’t win or lose games based on how many yards you surrender; it’s POINTS. 2024 was a bad year for the Bucs IMO; we surrendered 385 POINTS … 22.6 PPG average. That’s our worst performance since Todd Bowles 1st year here (2019) when he was having to create a whole new defense.
As bad as that was, 2 mitigating factors arose:
1 – Our offense kicked a$$ & scored 502 POINTS on the season … 29.5 PPG average.
2 – Our defense ranked #16 … middle-of-the-pack … despite allowing 385 points (60 more than we allowed in 2023).
What went wrong? Well, our pass rush wasn’t very consistent for one thing. We got 46 sacks to tie for a #6 best ranking. We got 173 Pressures for a #5 ranking. Those rankings aren’t quite as good as what we did in 2020 when we had Suh, JPP & others, but they’re not very far off either. It just wasn’t consistent.
Our ILBs weren’t very good in coverage. LVD was targeted 78 times & allowed 66 completions; his 84.6% completions was the worst of his career (as was the 608 passing yards that he allowed). Britt was targeted 30 times & allowed 22 completions; his 73.3% completions (and 246 passing yards allowed) was actually better than most of our other ILBs (Dennis was targeted 11 times & allowed 10 completions for 90.9% & 92 yards, while Russell was targeted 18 times & allowed 13 comopletions for 72.2% but 151 passing yards).
And we all saw what happened in our Secondary. Bad years by everyone not named McCollum, Izien or Tykee Smith (all 3 of them fared quite well). As a team we allowed opposing QBs to complete over 66% of their passes; MUCH too high. We need to tighten that up considerably in 2025. We also need a lot more takeaways (that’s one way to get off the field faster). Also need to improve our 4th down Conversions a BUNCH (we allowed 19 out of 30 to be converted … 63.3% … to rank #23 in the NFL in 4th down conversions allowed). That stinks.
How do we fix it? Better personnel for starters, to include better depth. And Todd needs to stop blitzing so much, which largely drives dropping some of the big guys into protection. Would much rather see them racing in the other direction.
March 9th, 2025 at 12:15 pm
DR, glad to see your stats lining up with my gut feeling. We need more depth. We could use more takeaways. And definitely prefer my defensive lineman racing forward than backwards! We’ll upgrade thru the draft and be a better defense. Our offense has another year of experience and should be AOK. We’re gonna be better. Maybe what we need to be talking about is special teams! Draft a punter!
March 9th, 2025 at 1:17 pm
@Marine Buc – I agree we should keep Dean, but on a renegotiated (read reduced) contract loaded up with incentives. And draft or bring in another CB to compete for CB #1. Dean is a better CB than Zyon – when healthy. Dean had his best season in a contract year. Make him earn it. Zyon is a great athlete, maybe just a CB #3.
March 9th, 2025 at 1:52 pm
Points allowed are rapidly lining up with yards allowed. One more year of the same scheme and philosophy and it will correlate on the nose.
You can only expect to be dealt blackjack more than twice in a row once in a gazillion.
March 9th, 2025 at 2:32 pm
Like what gotbucs says and other have said…Bowles wont let his defense get beat deep..but he will allow teams to nickle amd dime 10 play drives and convert 1st downs . Cant always blitz and be passive behind the blitz. Another 3rd and 16 converted into a 1st down on a 3 yard pass makes me pull my hair out. Worry no cornerback looks good under his scheme and especially 1st year rookies. Hate to waste a high draft pick on corners until we get more quality from the edge rush and another deflineman needed to rotate in with hall,kancey, vea. Draft a stud edge and Dl early and also bring in an edge quality vet
March 9th, 2025 at 3:22 pm
Stats can be manipulated to support any point. Performance and results make it clear. The defense must change scheme and have better coaching. Better players always help.