Light On Chances, Big On Results
March 6th, 2025
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BY IRA KAUFMAN
Driven, competitive, aggressive, tough, leader. Buc fans know all the adjectives used to describe Baker Mayfield.
Let’s add one more — opportunistic.
If the 2025 Bucs can address their defensive issues, the biggest beneficiary will be No. 6, who did more with less than any quarterback in the league last fall. That’s not a knock on the talent surrounding Mayfield. Instead, it’s a recognition that Tampa Bay’s offense needs more opportunities to shine.
The Buc defense had difficulty getting off the field last season, a problem that peaked during the opening-round playoff loss to Washington. In that 23-20 setback, the Commanders reeled off 69 offensive snaps to only 44 for the home team.
That’s a staggering discrepancy, but it’s hardly an outlier.
For the season, the Buc offense was on the field for 181 drives. Only 10 teams had fewer possessions.
Consider what Mayfield accomplished in those circumstances: Only three teams had a better scoring percentage per drive than Tampa Bay. Only two teams registered more yards per drive.
Only the Chiefs spent more average time per drive.
What helped the Bucs maximize their chances?
Start on third down, where Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 among 32 teams. How about the red zone? Mayfield’s numbers grew when the field shrunk as he completed an NFL-best 73 percent of his throws, with 29 TD passes and one interception.
“He’s one of those quarterbacks that has that mentality in his head that he’ll do whatever it takes to win,” says Todd Bowles. “He’s determined to win. A lot of guys have developed that mentality because of him and we really like that.”
As good as Mayfield was last season — and he was very good — it’s not unreasonable to believe he can be even better this fall.
Can Baker Mayfield improve after a stunning season? Ira Kaufman explores.
He doesn’t turn 30 until April, so he should be approaching his prime. He’s healthy and he just proved he can keep the league’s No. 4 scoring offense humming, even with Chris Godwin sidelined.
Before Godwin went down with a dislocated ankle in Week 7, he looked like the NFL’s best receiver as the Bucs averaged 30 points. In the final 10 games, Tampa averaged 29 points as Mayfield kept the chains moving with his arm and his legs.
“I’ve always been a Baker Mayfield fan from afar,” says Lions coach Dan Campbell. “I loved him when he was coming out. There’s no wonder why people rally around him and follow him.”
Mayfield’s consistency was remarkable in 2024.
The Bucs led all teams by averaging 6.7 points in the opening quarter. In 2022, with Tom Brady under center for all 17 games, Tampa Bay averaged 2.8 points in the first 15 minutes. Only three teams were less prolific at the start.
Turning to the fourth quarter last season, Mayfield led the league in passer rating, completing 72.5 percent of his throws, with 12 TDs and two picks.
New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard is operating under a stressful mandate … don’t screw up a good thing.
We all know Mayfield had a heavy hand in deciding who would replace Liam Coen, who will soon realize Trevor Lawrence is no Baker Mayfield.
“It means the world to me,” Grizzard says of Mayfield’s hearty endorsement. “He’s been fantastic.”
Imagine what Mayfield can be if the Buc defense plays complementary football and gives this offense more chances to light up the scoreboard?
The Bucs scored on four of their seven possessions against the Commanders, converting 56 percent on third down. It wasn’t good enough because rookie Jayden Daniels helped Washington go 8-for-15 on the money down. Tampa Bay’s embattled defense was on the field for more than 35 minutes.
All eyes will be on Grizzard as he calls plays for a potent attack. Now it’s up to the other side of the ball to maximize Mayfield’s opportunities.
He’ll take care of the rest.
March 6th, 2025 at 12:48 pm
It must be so difficult to keep an NFL roster ‘balanced’ with adequate talent in every position group. But the mandate is clear: Licht MUST get more players on defense, pretty much everywhere. The offense will be fine; it may be better than last year, but even if it falls a little, it’ll still be damn good.
But that defense has GOT to start getting stops.
March 6th, 2025 at 12:50 pm
Thanks for those stats Ira.
It’s exactly why I was shocked looking at Mayfields turnover numbers. They seemed way higher than I remembered watching. He didn’t seem to hurt us outside of 2 games.
He was great opening games and closing games, outside the 5 mins right before and after halftime, obviously that is where you hope your guys are playing the best ball.
None of us want turnovers and Baker can be better, we all hope he cleans them up, but if they are gonna happen we want them between the 30 yard lines and in the 2nd-3rd quarter as to not crush any momentum (real? I think so) or winning chances.
March 6th, 2025 at 12:55 pm
Ira – hits it out of the park!
Thank you Ira. That says everything. Drop the microphone.
March 6th, 2025 at 1:17 pm
Still can’t rewatch the game. Won’t until after the draft and fantasizing about the replacements from free agency and the draft. Still, amazing how close the game was. Washington converted 53% on third down to the Bucs 56%. Turnovers and 4th downs were obviously key. In hindsight, doesn’t it feel like the Bucs lost by 30? It sure seems so based on so many fans retractions.
Again, one more offseason and if all goes well, this team is set for years to come. #excited
March 6th, 2025 at 1:23 pm
Seven years in the league. 4 years with Cleveland. 2 years with Tampa. One year Browns, Panthers and Rams. Yes he was on 3 teams payroll that 5th year. Matt Rhule coached Panthers. Enough said. Rams Sean McVay would have loved to kept him but had Stafford. Mayfield was not gonna be a backup. Enter a very savvy Licht and Bowles and Voila! Many here have called him a journeyman. Quite the opposite. Many here say chokes in the clutch. Again, quite the opposite. He always has played the same way and that is Fearless. Anyone watch him in the clinching game against the Saints? Where Evans got his record? That’s who Mayfield is. He knows better than anyone that it’ll be a team effort to win the Super Bowl. And he’s finally got a team. And they’re going to win a Super Bowl. Great article Sage!
March 6th, 2025 at 1:59 pm
Ira … ‘Imagine what Mayfield can be if the Buc defense plays complementary football and gives this offense more chances to light up the scoreboard?’
Aahh yes Sage, the question for 2025. Yes we’ve gotta clean up a few concerns on the offensive side (like re-signing Godwin, Bredeson, Opeta, Skule, probably Shepard, and oh ya, finding a backup QB), but otherwise we’re in good shape.
The defense she needs a’ fixin. In favor of re-signing LVD, Nelson, Gaines, Bryce Hall, Edwards, Merriweather, Brewer, and probably Russell & Britt, but fact remains that we NEED some new faces to fill obvious holes. Bucs need a quality veteran Edge who enjoys sacking QBs, a beastly DT/NT to rotate in with Vea & provide more consistent interior pressure with less blitzing, a MLB to exert control the center of the field, another starting outside CB to compete with Jamel. That’s all doable; we just need to pick the right guys. If we can get BOTH our offense AND our defense in the Top-10, we can make a run at the Super Bowl.
March 6th, 2025 at 3:26 pm
DR covers the table. Spot on.
March 6th, 2025 at 3:34 pm
I like the 3rd down info. And I like that Grizzard was involved on 3rd downs. That leads me to be optimistic.
If Bake performs strongly again….ya gotta give him mad props. If he matches or exceeds 2023 and 24’s performance I am thinking he is making whichever OC he is playing for look GOOOOOOD.
Can he outperform or match ’24? That’d be amazing. I’ve said it before…I like watching him a lot more than I liked watching “old Brady”. Old Brady won with wisdom and protectected his own ass-etts. Baker plays lights out. He’s a dude. It’s fun to watch guys rally around him amd it’s fun to watch him be a fan of his guys.
March 6th, 2025 at 4:00 pm
Start with a proven EDGE and hope improved pass rush will make the back end better. Definitely need LB’s, CB or SAFETY.
To fund all this, just get rid of the dead wood. There is plenty of it on defense. Good start was Whitehead. Next is Dean and a bunch of guys who can’t tackle or cover.
March 6th, 2025 at 4:14 pm
Said it from the start. We got lucky and so did Baker on the match. We will be competitive the next 10 years. All teams with a Franchise QB are. Go Bucs!!!
March 6th, 2025 at 4:50 pm
Nice article Ira. Talk about finding a diamond in the rough. Licht hit it out of the park bringing Mayfield on board, particularly at the price he paid. From all appearances, Baker will be around for many years to come and lead this team to the playoffs many more times. Jason, just fix the defense this year, and we could be SB bound!
March 6th, 2025 at 5:53 pm
After what will be a strong 2025 season for Baker and the Bucs, few here will begrudge Baker getting a huge renegotiated contract. He is better that most making $20mill/yr than he is now. Fully expect that Licht will step up with a 4 year deal at $55mill/yr with $180mill guaranteed. That is what an elite QB currently commands. Of course, it is all absurd but the Browns set the standard with the ridiculous contract to worthless Deshaun Watson. Mayfield is proving that more than most he earns every penny.
March 6th, 2025 at 6:15 pm
You know what didn’t help the Baker fumble
He needs to protect the ball
March 6th, 2025 at 6:32 pm
Sick of hearing from idiots about Baker interceptions. Tom Brady, the so called GOAT had 78 INT’s in his first 7 full years in the NFL. Mayfield has had 90 INT”s in his first seven years.
The INT thing is used by lousy coaches who want to rationalize why they lose; and, not so bright fans who feel compelled to a fix blame for their team’s loss. Again, remind all that the first NO game this year, Mayfield has 3 INT’s in a game Bucs won 51-24. Nobody is in favor of INT’s. They happen (even to Tom Brady). Get over it.
March 6th, 2025 at 7:03 pm
Wow, those are some pretty insane stats:
So basically we had the 4th fewest drives in the league, but had the #2 or #3 scoring offense?
Damn, doesn’t get more efficient than that…
March 6th, 2025 at 7:59 pm
A successful ballhawks recruitment in the offseason = Super Bowl!
I agree with DR!
March 6th, 2025 at 8:05 pm
Gipper, you Are not implying that turnovers are inconsequential, are you? Turnovers are game killers, and most of Bakers’ interceptions this past season were quite bad, meaning, throwing into double or triple coverage; hastily thrown; and or that the intercepting defender didn’t have to make a “great play“ to intercept the ball. The ball landed in his chest, because it was poorly thrown. Sorry, most of Bakers interceptions reminded me of Jameis’, A result of Very bad decision making.
Of course I would rather have Baker but, he must get better, especially in crunch time. Sometimes he looks too amped up and it frightens me.
March 6th, 2025 at 9:04 pm
BucsBeBack (Artist formally known as: BringBucsBack) Says:
March 6th, 2025 at 8:05 pm
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Ok you are on, tell us all what games the Bucs lost in 2024 directly the result of Mayfield INT’s. Also, note that the Bucs lost more than a few games in 2024 where Mayfield had ZERO Int’s.
INT’s are part of the game. Reread my second paragraph in above comment.
March 6th, 2025 at 11:43 pm
BucsBeBack. Bakers interceptions remind you of Jamie’s-a result of bad decision making. Are Brady’s interceptions a result of good decision making? Gipper, Bucs BeBack is one of those anti Baker twits that doesn’t have a clue what he means. Does that sound about right, BucsBeBack?
March 7th, 2025 at 12:16 am
I think we need at least 2 spots for high value LBs, such as Kalil Mack and a 1st or second round pick (Jihad Campbell please). We need our LBs play well against run and pass, while being always around the ball. That was a primary weakness last years. Remember when we got dominated by Kyle pits? Or when the camera flashed to the receiver catching the ball and KJ Britt already trailing by several feet. We have sirvocea, but he can’t be counted upon and would be great depth (something that also killed us last year).
March 7th, 2025 at 12:19 am
I like Hendrickson if we can get him for our 1st and extend him a couple years. I’m not sure, but I thought he was more of 4-3 DE.
March 7th, 2025 at 2:43 am
I needed to hear that Sage. Thank you sir! We were soo freaking close to it last year. despite all the injuries, and some sub par play on defense.
Get some answers on defense and some healthy starters and we could get our guys some rings!
Go Bucs!
March 7th, 2025 at 5:46 am
Thank you for putting it all in perspective with the data, Ira. We were so lucky to get Baker as our QB after Brady. Perfect fit.
Defense Rules – Right on point too. This season could be our next SB.
March 7th, 2025 at 7:17 pm
Great article and DR. I couldn’t agree more.