Disturbing Trend For Star Rookie Running Backs
March 23rd, 2025
Regression?
Few things made Joe happier than seeing Bucky Irving bust out as a rookie and become the first dynamic Bucs rookie back in a long time.
And Joe for weeks (months?) just assumed that any rookie would improve in his second season because that’s what good NFL players do: get better after their rookie seasons.
But in doing research on rookie running backs, Joe found a disturbing recent trend. This decade, of the six rookie running back who totaled over 1,000 yards rushing, five had a regression his second season. In some cases, a significant setback.
Only Jonathan Taylor finished with more yards in his second season. In his rookie year in 2020, Taylor ran for 1,169 yards. In his second season, he topped that number with 1,811 yards.
Here are the five running backs who ran for over 1,000 yards their rookie seasons in this decade and what they did their second seasons (Bucky had 1,112 yards his rookie season):
RB, season, rookie yards, second-year yards
Najee Harris 2021 1200 1034
Jonathan Taylor 2020 1169 1811
James Robinson 2020 1070 767
Kenneth Walker 2022 1050 905
Tyler Allgeier 2022 1035 683
Factors for Bucky that may break up this trend? Bucky only started one game in the Bucs’ first 15 games.
Also, Bucky will have the very same offensive line. They are now used to how he cuts, weaves, times his runs, etc. Bucs offensive linemen took a few weeks to get a feel for how to block for Bucky. (Don’t believe Joe? Just ask the linemen if you cross paths with them. They’ll tell you.)
The key thing here is will new Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard use Bucky in the very same way his predecessor Liam Coen did?
For Bucs history, Molly Hamster Doug Martin ran for 1,454 his rookie season in 2012 but only had 456 yards in his injury-riddled 2013 season. Martin missed the final 13 games of the year with a bum shoulder.
March 23rd, 2025 at 12:03 am
Well let’s hope we Buck the trend.
March 23rd, 2025 at 12:17 am
^ I see what you did there…
March 23rd, 2025 at 12:25 am
Unless he’s injured or the transition to Grizz is not smooth, I’m not worried about Bucky’s production. There are always reasons why a guy has statistical regression. Those reasons have nothing to do with him being a 2nd year player.
March 23rd, 2025 at 1:17 am
Seems to me it was suggested that Baker Mayfield would regress last year…
March 23rd, 2025 at 1:19 am
No,way we should screw this up, other than TBRS.
March 23rd, 2025 at 3:11 am
I am gald that you added the stuff about starts and O line Joe. That makes me feel better.
To add to that. I feel like Bucky may be a better back than any of those guys you mentioned (possible exception of Taylor) if he stays healthy and they don’t over use him. White and Tucker should help with that.
Go Bucs!
March 23rd, 2025 at 3:35 am
The Bucs have to use White and Tucker, too. I don’t care about Bucky’s stats, I care about the Bucs winning games.
March 23rd, 2025 at 4:29 am
Interesting stat, nice research.
March 23rd, 2025 at 4:39 am
I don’t really fear that with Bucky. He’s got the same O-Line AND is the hardest worker/most football obsessed in the building.
He didn’t make the transition to the NFL on athletic prowess and that’s the same reason he’s not going to be complacent in his second season. He’ll make it work.
March 23rd, 2025 at 5:13 am
Joe … ‘This decade, all but one rookie running back who totaled over 1,000 yards rushing had a regression his second season.’
Focusing on JUST the RB himself can resullt in some misleading conclusions Joe. Any RB’s production is a function of a myriad of factors IMO, such as OLine run-blocking, OC play-calling, RB injury status, quality of opponents, etc.
For instance, you noted that ‘only Jonathan Taylor finished with more yards in his second season’. True statement, but even that needs to be caveated. Taylor had 232 rushing attempts in his 15 games (for 1169 yards) his rookie year … and averaged 5.0 Yards/Attempt. In his 2nd year however, Taylor had 332 rushing attempts … exactly 100 MORE … in 17 games (for 1811 yards) … and averaged 5.5 Yards/Attempt.
So yes, Taylor had a better 2nd year, but he ran a LOT more and actually increased his Yards/Attempt. Interestingly, his Colts had a worse year, going from 11-5 to 9-8 because … Taylor was pretty much the entire offense.
BTW, Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris (6’1″ & 242 lbs) is a fascinating case study among the ones you mentioned. He (like Derrick Henry … 6’2″ & 247 lbs) is a beast. They’re both RBs who rarely miss games and tote the rock a BUNCH. Harris for instance …
o 2021: 17 games – 307 carries – 1200 yards – 3.9 Y/A
o 2022: 17 games – 272 carries – 1034 yards – 3.8 Y/A
o 2023: 17 games – 255 carries – 1035 yards – 4.1 Y/A
o 2024: 17 games – 263 carries – 1043 yards – 4.0 Y/A
So Najee’s made over 1,000 rushing yards every year thus far, but it took him a lot of rushing attempts to do it. Compare Najee’s rushing attempts to Bucky’s last season (207 rushing attempts) … Najee averages a LOT more. Still, gotta love a guy who never misses a game.
March 23rd, 2025 at 6:05 am
Bucky is a smaller back not physically suited to being a bell cow so his carries will always be limited. Increasing his workload also increases his likelihood of incurring an injury
March 23rd, 2025 at 6:46 am
Alot of factors lead to what a RB produces on the field.
March 23rd, 2025 at 6:50 am
2020 was the last year of the previous decade, so two of the five didn’t have their rookie season this decade.
A small thing, but it annoys me this mistake (it’s the called the millennium mistake) is made so often.
March 23rd, 2025 at 7:28 am
Bucky also does a great job of runing behind his blockers. If he, and the line stay healthy he should have no problem getting a grand.
March 23rd, 2025 at 7:51 am
Will totally depend on him staying healthy…
March 23rd, 2025 at 8:00 am
Molly Hamster…LOL. Josh Freeman was the same way. Martin did have a second great year for a fat new contract. Freeman never did. That guy thought he was Michael Jackson.
I remember Cadillac Williams really regresses his second year too, but I think it was injuries. It was before the patella tears, but it was injuries just the same. He sure didn’t last long.
March 23rd, 2025 at 8:05 am
Well Taylor is the only decent RB on that list, even worth looking into trends. Plus some suspect O Lines on those squads too, so really not too much to compare there.
The larger question, and it’s one that will exist until we’re a quarter of the way into the season to truly figure out, is how will the Grizz do after the guy who left us at the altar calling plays?…that could be very impactful, perhaps, but we’re in that boat regardless.
March 23rd, 2025 at 8:20 am
Ron, decades run 0 through 9. So, 2020 through 2029 is the current decade. If it were recorded as you suggest, the year 0 AD wouldn’t be included in any decade.
March 23rd, 2025 at 9:15 am
@ D-Mac, the year 0 doesn’t exist. You’re making exactly the mistake I was pointing out.
March 23rd, 2025 at 9:32 am
Bucky Irving came in ready to go. He was pretty awesome to, once he got his chance he showed everybody that he was for real. I think everybody had some worries at first but after that we watched in amazement. He pretty much did what he did in his last couple of seasons in college. Rashad picked up a little do to the fact, and Tucker getting out there and showing off his speed and hitting the hole like a train coming through. Tucker is fast!! I like the two of them. We got some excitement in the backfield!!! Let’s Go Bucs!!!!
March 23rd, 2025 at 9:34 am
DR,
Huh? The nuances you outline for a “contrary” take to Joe leaves me a bit confused as to your point. Seems like you resulted in similar “misleading conclusions” as Joe. Love the stats and grammatical acuity, but the plot begs for more…. unless, the point is “gotta love a guy who never misses [sic] a game.”
For real, this is not shade. It’s just that I tend to Easter egg some posters, and yours usually have bills instead of pennies in them, so it begs the question, “am I missing something?”
March 23rd, 2025 at 9:42 am
I personally find this stat/article fascinating and clearly this must be a leading factor as to why RB value ($ compensation-wise) has diminished over the yrs. These off season hmm post are what keep me reading. Thanks, Joe
March 23rd, 2025 at 9:45 am
The key is to not overload him like Gruden did to Cadillac Williams…that’s why u don’t trade White for a late round pick! We need all 3 backs to get sufficient carries until the playoff push, then u unleash Bucky! Or whomever has the hot hand at that time
March 23rd, 2025 at 9:49 am
After Robinson’s rookie year the Jags drafted Travis Etienne and Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson after Allgier’s rookie year.
March 23rd, 2025 at 9:51 am
I would like to see White continue to touch the ball, I know that goes against JBFs desires, but some of Bucky’s best games came when White was lead back, and opposing defenses struggled to adjust when Bucky came into the game.
I think it would be a mistake for us to go against a consistent 2-back scheme for the sake of Bucky being a better playmaker, which clearly, he is, however both guys bring strengths to the position and yes, I still see White having value as a RB. I think there is something to getting into rhythm as a player, especially when it comes to getting snaps throughout the game, where I agree with Bucky getting his touches, but with guy his size, you also want to preserve him, it’s a long season.
March 23rd, 2025 at 10:12 am
Easy fix, draft another one.
March 23rd, 2025 at 11:23 am
No need, considering our three backs, to draft a RB. Plenty of leftovers to comb through to find a diamond in the rough. We need to upgrade DL, DB, edge, LB, and OL first. We especially need to find a replacement for JTS. (Cue laughter.)
March 23rd, 2025 at 11:24 am
I forgot TE.
March 23rd, 2025 at 11:38 am
Posts like this are worthless Cassandra because it merely shows a character defect that you like to sit around and worry about stupid stuff. 5 players is not a big enough sample size to determine anything. that’s called math. Look into it.
March 23rd, 2025 at 11:50 am
So you’re saying it’s not true? Please point out Joe’s error.
March 23rd, 2025 at 12:53 pm
Joe Says:
March 23rd, 2025 at 11:50 am
I think the problem is, what’s the point? It’s basically worthless info without context. I mean, it’s pure coincidence unless you offer some deeper information on each case. And, of the 5, one went up significantly, 2 went down in the neighborhood of 15%, the other 2 went down in the neighborhood of 30%.
Would be interesting to see where each of these guys was in YPC each year. Was there total output reduced by fewer touches or less production per touch? Were they injured at all? Did the O-line have injuries? Did the other skill positions have injuries? Was there a change in offensive scheme? Did the team face a tougher stretch of defenses that year? Point is, coincidences are meaningless. Joe could do a little deeper dive into the reasons rather than suggest there’s some second year magic.