Interesting Odds For Baker Mayfield In 2025
February 20th, 2025
MVP candidate?
The carcass of the 2024 season is barely cold and already folks are wagering on the 2025 season.
Per Tyler Sullivan of CBS, DraftKings is now taking bets for the NFL 2025 MVP race.
(Hard Rock, the lone legal sportsbook in Florida, has not yet begun taking odds on anything for the 2025 season except for the first overall pick in April’s draft.)
Per Sullivan, Baker Mayfield has interesting odds at winning the award. He’s currently has the 12th-best odds of winning league MVP at +2800, tied with Jared Goff and Caleb Williams.
Sullivan doesn’t seem impressed. He’d rather go with C.J. Stroud at +2500 than lay cash on Mayfield.
I’d much rather bet on a Stroud resurgence than back guys in his odds range like Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield.
Not a bad call by Sullivan. Like the Bucs and the NFC South, the AFC South is often rotten. Better chance to rack up 12 or more wins, which would likely be the rock-bottom team number if a quarterback is going to win MVP.
But if you are going with Stroud, why not a little extra scratch on Mayfield? At least he has experience winning with a new offensive coordinator. Too much experience if you ask Joe.
(Yeah, Stroud technically had a new coordinator as a rookie in 2023.)
Joe has no doubt that if the Bucs make a run to the playoffs, it will largely be because of Mayfield. So a few shekels on Mayfield at +2800 doesn’t seem like a terrible bet.
February 20th, 2025 at 12:07 am
Pre-scripted – 4200 yards, 36 TDs, 11 INTs, 3 rushing TDs, another “Pro Bowl” and eliminated by the Eagles in the NFC championship after a strip sack fumble by…
Myles Garrett
February 20th, 2025 at 12:07 am
Considering the status quo of defensive scheme and coaching personnel, for the Bucs to make the playoffs, Baker will have to have an MVP caliber season. So I would take Baker over Stroud for that reason among others.
February 20th, 2025 at 1:52 am
Redzone Says:
February 20th, 2025 at 12:07 am
Pre-scripted – 4200 yards, 36 TDs, 11 INTs, 3 rushing TDs, another “Pro Bowl” and eliminated by the Eagles in the NFC championship after a strip sack fumble by…
Myles Garrett
———–
No, not against the Eagles. Bowles and the Bucs own the Eagles.
February 20th, 2025 at 5:05 am
Admittedly wasn’t a huge fan of Baker Mayfield when he first came here, but he’s unquestionably earned my respect as both a player & as a leader of this team. I don’t think that he gets nearly enough credit for his impact on our success over these past 2 years.
I’m a believer that what I view as ‘explosive plays’ commonly dictate a game’s outcome. The most visible explosive plays in my mind are turnovers. Takeaways vs giveaways (ie, Turnover Differential) appears to have a huge impact on wins vs losses.
This past season, Bucs made 23 giveaways but only had 18 takeaways (for a MINUS 5 Turnover Differential). We were only 1 of 2 NFL teams who had winning season but a negative T/O Differential. Not good.
Offensively, explosive runs & explosive passes also have a huge impact on wins vs losses IMO. Did an analysis the other day of our 2024 season, game by game, looking at explosive runs (my definition: gaining 10 yards or more) and explosive passes (my definition: gaining 20 yards or more).
The results floored me, largely because of the impact that Baker Mayfield had on our explosive plays. Baker had a LOT of scrambles of 10 yards or more that were influential in us eventually scoring on those drives. That’s impact in my book.
Overall on the season BTW, the Bucs had 71 explosive runs and 58 explosive passes for a total of 129 explosive plays (whodathunkit?). What was interesting was that we did so much better in our wins: 10 wins and we had 49 explosive runs & 42 explosive passes. That’s 91 explosive plays total in 10 games, roughly 9 per game average in each win. In our 7 losses we only had 22 explosive runs & 16 explosive passes. That’s 38 explosive plays total in 7 games, roughly 5.5 per game average in each loss. Explosive plays were obviously much more pronounced, and thus impactful, in our wins vs our losses.
For those interested in how our opponents did in terms of explosive plays, they did quite a bit better than us in our losses (their wins) but far worse in our wins (their losses). In our 10 wins our opponents only had 40 explosive plays total (17 explosive runs & 23 explosive passes). In our 7 losses our opponents had 47 explosive plays (18 explosive runs & 29 explosive passes). Bucs Secondary gave up far more big passes (29) in our 7 losses than we made (only 16). That’s one area we have to do a lot better in this year.
February 20th, 2025 at 7:01 am
There are 32 teams out there and this time of year they all have high hopes for this season. Can you imagine if we win the turnover battle this year? Add a few impact players on defense? We’re gonna be better this year than last year. Not a doubt in my mind. We may even win the Super Bowl. And as long as we have this general manager and head coach we’ll be contenders every year. We’re that good and getting better. And hard to see how Baker can play much better. But he can by cutting down on the turnovers. And he will do that this year. To heck with the MVP. This QB is hunting a Super Bowl.
February 20th, 2025 at 7:31 am
Baker had odds between +35,000 to +50,000 at various times during the 2024 preseason. That is a remarkable improvement in respect for him and a sign he’s turned the page on much of that silly stigma the national media had on him when he moved to Tampa Bay.
February 20th, 2025 at 7:40 am
Kenton … ‘Can you imagine if we win the turnover battle this year?’
I’m convinced that we can reduce the 23 giveaways this season, but probably not by a huge amount (say maybe down to 20 or so). It’s the takeaways I’d like to see us really increase. Last season’s 7 INTs was just woeful; we can do MUCH better if we can improve the pass rush, blitz less, and play a lot less zone this year. Back in 2020 & 2021 we had 12 INTs both years, and got a total of 25 and 29 takeaways. We’ve gotta get back to those days (when we actually had a pass rush?).
February 20th, 2025 at 7:52 am
At 28:1 to win MVP is surely throwing your money away. As sure as Mayfield will give the ball away in the most important of Playoff Drives.
Great when there’s nothing to lose but stumbles when there is everything to lose.
February 20th, 2025 at 8:20 am
Winfield was a woeful non producer with 0 Int’s. This from the highest paid DB in the league. Winfield has to match his production to his salary or Bucs’ D is in big trouble.
February 20th, 2025 at 8:50 am
What are Trask’s odds?
February 20th, 2025 at 9:57 am
Zzzzzzzzz……
February 20th, 2025 at 9:58 am
What are the odds that Baker WON’T lead all QBs in turnovers in 2025? Him getting better in that area will hopefully lead to more wins, not just an MVP award.
Why do some of you believe Baker will get better at turnovers? Serious question. The past 2 years in the playoffs he’s had his hands involved in a game ending turnovers.
Awards are cool but I haven’t seen anyone explain how Baker’s decision-making has improved.
February 20th, 2025 at 10:10 am
Tampa Bay needs a more Stout defense and if there are other wide receiver doesn’t sign with them they’re going to need another top-notch wide receiver and Baker needs to stay healthy I don’t care about Houston’s quarterback he didn’t do very good this year I know it’s the terrible twos so we shall see
February 20th, 2025 at 11:00 am
Another Pro bowl it will be. He will inch closer and closer to the 5000 yard mark with a healthy Chris Godwin and as the team gets better together until they end up in the superbowl. Of course this will be the final act and humiliation of Rod Munch proving him wrong about everything he said Baker Mayfield couldn’t do. To be honest I think by the time they make it to the superbowl the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have developed the team around Baker and they will be sufficiently good enough to go to multiple superbowls humiliating munch even further. Baker will win, munch will lose. But munch will never come on board with Baker because Baker did something back in college that really made munch look bad, just as he is doing now. It was probably beating mahomes every single time they played each other. Like I said Baker will win, munch will lose.
February 20th, 2025 at 12:03 pm
When the NFL wants to know how the quarterbacks in the league are doing they use their tried and true passer rating. It has served them well for many years. This year, Tampa Bay’s quarterback, Baker Mayfield basically tied for 2nd with a 108.1. The last 3 games he averaged 136, the best in the league. In the playoff game he had a 146.6. Saving his best game for the playoffs. When they want to know which quarterbacks are the most accurate passers they use the completion percentage statistic. Baker was 1st this year with a 71.8%. The highest ever scored by such a young quarterback. A percentage that Mahomes has never even sniffed let alone accomplished. Baker is about as elite as a quarterback comes. If he can cut down on his interceptions and have a similar year statistically, he will be the leagues best quarterback bar none.
February 20th, 2025 at 1:49 pm
Z must be Algo’s least favorite letter. Algo apparently loves all the other letters, connected en masse, resulting in a miracle cure for insomnia.
February 20th, 2025 at 6:16 pm
No wonder Kansas City barely won their playoff games and lost the superbowl.
Mahomes playoff stats: completion % 66.3, passer rating 101.4, QBR 62.3
Mayfields playoff stats: completion % 83.3, passer rating 146.5, QBR 64.2
Baker Mayfield put it to Patrick Mahomes. As soon as the defense is fixed it will be Tampa Bays turn at the superbowls.
February 20th, 2025 at 6:56 pm
If Bucs get to the NFC Championship, Mayfield will be a big reason. Guessing his 2025 stats look like this: 45TD, 68% comp; 12INT. If all that happens, Baker will win MVP. With an improved Bucs defense and more offensive possessions, MVP really isn’t such a long shot. Have to believe defense will be better and offense continues to improve with O line developing further.
February 20th, 2025 at 9:36 pm
In addition to all of the performance metrics Baker needs to achieve in order for the Bucs to win, word out of OBP is the HC/DC wants all his players on offense to cross-train at dropping into empty zone coverage. No one has ever thought of it before, and its genius.
Baker will w cel at that, too.