Draft Success
February 17th, 2025
A lot of fans grumble about Bucs coach Todd Bowles because they feel the Bucs should have won more than 10 games. They blame Bowles for holding the team back.
Well, if you figure the Bucs are a 12-win (or more?) team, then Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht and his staff are getting the job done.
The Bucs tied for third in the NFL with the highest percentage of first- and second-round draft picks starting for their teams during the 2024 season. The Eagles are the only 2024 division winner who had a higher percent of first- and second-round dpics in their starting lineup.
The Bucs’ percentage of starters from their first- and second-round draft picks is 80 percent. The Eagles have 90.
The Bears were highest at 91 percent. They’re a garbage team. So that’s not getting the job done. The slimy Saints are tied with the Bucs at 80 percent. The slimy Saints stink. Such a pity.
So yeah, Licht and his staff know what they are doing.
February 17th, 2025 at 12:13 am
I get a bit tired of the comments about Licht and for that matter Bowles.
I am the first to admit that Bowles does some inexplicable things at times with players and plays. Not to mention his time out usage. Licht drafting Kickers and Punters …But as a team we have been way more successful than in those losing years with poor coaches and a couple of truly awful GMs.
Maybe think of the alternatives before being overly critical of either one. We could do much worse and we have done much worse…not too long ago.
Good stuff Joe!
Go Bucs!
February 17th, 2025 at 12:14 am
Just out of curiosity, if a team has a high percentage of Rnd 1 and Rnd 2 picks starting, wouldn’t that imply that BOTH the selection process AND the player development processes are working?
February 17th, 2025 at 12:52 am
DR, yes…if the team is making the playoffs. Your question is rhetorical of course. I’d like to see the data on 3rd and 4th round picks. I’m betting the Bucs are high up on the draft and development chart there as well.
Climbing out of salary cap purgatory has been a challenge but the Bucs by and large have done it. The FA signings largely didn’t work last year but the Bucs were buying off the clearance rack. This year they have more flexibility. Can’t wait to see the upgrades made on every level of the defense this year. Both through free agency and the draft.
February 17th, 2025 at 12:53 am
What’s even more impressive than hitting on the majority of 1st and 2nd rd picks – is what Licht and co. are doing in rounds 3>5 of late….
Bucs have drafted quite a few good players in those later rounds just the last 3 years…
3rd rd – Tykee Smith, Jalen McMillan, YaYa Diaby, Rachaad White
4th Rd – Bucky Irving, Cade Otton
5th Rd – Zyon McCollum, Sirvocea Dennis, Payne Durham
Players drafted in this range typically ‘make it’ in the NFL only about 25% (5th rd) to 40% (3rd rd) of the time…..
February 17th, 2025 at 1:18 am
How big of a hit does that take with Spytek gone is the big question. He was the man driving all of this wasn’t he? I’m not as confident of nailing this draft as many others are with him out of the equation. This is where we find out just how good Licht is. That’s not throwing shade at him either. I think he is an awesome GM but bow more than ever do we need him to nail this draft.
February 17th, 2025 at 2:33 am
Licht didn’t consistently hit in the draft until he brought John Spytek on. It’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain his success now that Spytek is gone. All I can tell you is he was pretty hit or miss before.
February 17th, 2025 at 3:03 am
Bucco Steve … There’s no question in my mind that JL has ‘grown’ in competency over the years. But back in 2014 he was ‘wet behind the ears’ & I’m convinced that he allowed Lovie to probably dictate the early 2 drafts (JL certainly let Lovie dictate the early FA signings).
His drafting was just OK during Koetter’s 1st years here as HC (2016 & 2017), and really didn’t excel until Dirk’s last year here (2018 … Vea, RoJo, Davis, Cappa, Whitehead). JL’s growth really showed in 2019 when BA arrived and we drafted White, SMB, Dean, Edwards, Nelson and that draft set the stage for our 2020 Super Bowl. 2021 was a rocky year draft-wise, but these last 3 drafts have nailed it.
I’m sure that Spytek played an important role in that success, but I tend to think it’s JL’s relationship with the coaching staff that’s proven to be even more significant.
February 17th, 2025 at 4:22 am
Bucs need more defensive help. End of story. Probably an IOL and P also!
February 17th, 2025 at 4:23 am
So losing Spytek is going to be a huge problem for them you think that’s kinda interesting.
February 17th, 2025 at 5:38 am
Licht does well in drafts,cant rely on rookie degensive additions year 1, Toilet Bowles doesnt try to develop them quickly, likes to let them simmer. He “try not to lose, then we try to win” he is a dc. not a head coach. Clock mgmt. Hahaha
February 17th, 2025 at 6:42 am
Garro
Thanks for starting this thread off in a balanced, rational manner!
“But as a team we have been way more successful than in those losing years with poor coaches and a couple of truly awful GMs.’
Yes and even the sorry(according to many here) coach has now surpassed those losing years. AGAIN Todd is now the 3rd winningest coach in Buc’s history, surpassing even Chucky. And yes much of that is due to JL’s competency, for the haters give JL all the credit if you wish.
And as usual Pickgin and D.R. with some great additional observations.
February 17th, 2025 at 7:03 am
Licht is a very good drafter but this stat has a lot of flaws. First, a team will less overall talent might be forced to play drafted players because they have nothing else. The examples here are the saints and bears. Second, the fact that a player is playing says nothing of their ability. You may have a player like Will Levis playing but not playing well.
February 17th, 2025 at 7:06 am
A better stat would be how many players drafted are in the top 16-32 at their positions. Maybe even top 64 for some positions like guard and tackle.
February 17th, 2025 at 7:12 am
Throw in rounds 3-7 and I bet Licht is even higher.
February 17th, 2025 at 7:13 am
There has to be an asterisk in that stat.
Every stat has a surface and depth. You cant stay only on the surface.
Its a percentage of draft picks starting, does not mean they are good players.
JTS is starting for us and he is a part of that 80%.
February 17th, 2025 at 7:40 am
Bucs win SB w/o Bowles Blunders
February 17th, 2025 at 8:00 am
Xristos
So in conclusion is the glass half full or half empty?
February 17th, 2025 at 8:09 am
This is a terrible litmus for success, especially if you consider KC only hits 58%of the time. What if you’re trading those picks for proven players down the road?
And the following contradiction makes no statistical or journalistic sense.
February 17th, 2025 at 8:13 am
Blind squirrels find nuts, coyotes eat squirrel. I rather be a regular carnivore than an 80% nut finder. And yes, this is an equally ridiculous statement and comparison
February 17th, 2025 at 8:13 am
I wish they would detail the stat a little better. The way I’m reading it is that…
Among all of the 1st and 2nd rounders that you drafted, who are still on the team (aka – didn’t get cut/traded/lost in free agency/retired), what percentage of those players are starters on your team.
Even if you completely disregarded each team/player’s on-field success, there is plenty within the criteria I gave that could skew the story behind these numbers.
February 17th, 2025 at 8:13 am
Wait is Joe Saying there wasn’t two games the Bucs were completely unprepared for and should have won?
Because the Bucs won tough games doesn’t negate the fact the Bucs had atleast two games maybe three they look horrible and unprepared totally
The defense of Bowles is crazy. The HC Failed in several areas this year
February 17th, 2025 at 8:22 am
Why can’t they draft and develop a good edge rusher in the first two rounds. Don’t understand that!
February 17th, 2025 at 8:31 am
stpetebucsfan
The glass is half. Some enjoy what they are drinking some dont like the taste.
What defines Draft Success.
How many drafted players are starting?
How many wins you get with these players in your team?
Everyone has his own interpretation.
From that graphic I get two thoughts.
1. Starting players that you drafted does not equal to wins on the field.
If you look the final 4 teams are with 91%, 67%, 58%, 36%. So no connection to the percentage of drafted players starting with wins.
2. Like i said before a player starting does not mean he is good necessarily.
By this graphic Bears and Saints are having Draft Success. Cant see it on the field.
February 17th, 2025 at 9:06 am
Xristos
Thanks for a great explanation. You made very valid points.
February 17th, 2025 at 10:25 am
The bears have no choice but to play their draft picks so they should be first. Eagles won the Super Bowl so they are drafting better. This graph also tells you Licht is doing his job and the defense should be better. We shouldn’t be having mid season slumps every year
February 17th, 2025 at 10:37 am
Xristos…You point out how ridiculous this thread is. JTS is still on the team. What does this prove other than the “blind squirrel” theory of draft picks. He’s still here, I guess, since nobody they have is any better. What does that prove?
February 17th, 2025 at 10:45 am
Maybe it’s me, but it seems we excel at mid round picks but are average at picks in the first and second rounds. For every Tristan Wirfs we have a JTS. I know it’s hard to pick an impact player at the bottom of the first or second round, but I think we could do better than we have. Its a bit of a crap shoot for every team, but I don’t think we’re really much better than average, but maybe that’s still better than other teams.
February 17th, 2025 at 12:06 pm
A legendary HOF GM Bobby Beathard viewed the draft as a crap shoot and traded down for multiple picks every chance he got. The more picks the better the chance of success. We tend to obsess on first rounders and ignore the fact that Bucky came in the 4th round, Tom Brady went in the 6th and Brad Johnson was picked so late his round doesn’t even exist today.
For those who are curious about those odds…
1st round – about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.
2nd round – about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.
3rd round – about 16%.
4th round – about 8%.
5th round – about 4-5%.
6th round – about 2%.
February 17th, 2025 at 3:00 pm
Licht has been doing a great job, only missing piece is coaching staff deployment. It’s like having 9 guys on the field against 11.
February 17th, 2025 at 9:26 pm
That only works if u r winning so the saints,steelers,colts chargers etc r nit winning so that theory is toast
February 17th, 2025 at 11:00 pm
Listen up Bucs upper management/owners, use your common sense….watch the film closely, Baker was sacked so many times this year with Barton over Hainsey’s past years. Put Hainsey in as the starting center, bring the defensive line up to the caliber of the offensive line, and make sure the best coaches are in place. Robert Hainsey’s second name in Ryan Jensen. Let Robert and Baker run the game…. LFG for 2025!!!!!
February 17th, 2025 at 11:16 pm
To Bucs upper management and owners please watch the film, Baker was sacked more times this past year then the past two/three years with Hainsey. Keep Hainsey as the center, bring the defensive line up to the caliber of the offensive line, and put the best coaches of choice in place. Get smart…. and LFG for 2025. Robert Hainsey’s second name is Ryan Jensen!!! Hainsey, Baker, (with the o-line they have currently, a superior defensive line, and coaches in place), will be in strong SB contention. Get smart!!!!!!
February 18th, 2025 at 6:34 pm
Seems like 60 percent would be a good percentage. JTS is a part of our 80 percent and obviously he is not something to write home about.
A matrix would be to measure the percentage of 5, 6, and 7th rounders that get snaps. This combined with UDFAs means the eye for talent is grand.