Stats, Damned Stats And The Four-Letter
January 4th, 2025
Turning the corner?
Look, Joe has been over this many times. Joe is not anti-stats (he is anti-PFF tribe grades — there is a major difference). Stats are nothing but information. Who is against information?
But stats without context is fool’s gold, which brings Joe to this Seth Walder of BSPN, a man who never met a number he didn’t like.
Walder loves to throw out numbers but Joe swears he never uses context. If a number suggests something, that’s it. Case closed. Never adds context or nuance.
Take Bucs edge rusher YaYa Diaby. Joe loves YaYa but he hasn’t had the season many expected after a promising rookie season. He’s only had 1.5 sacks in his last nine games. All of those 1.5 sacks came in the last two weeks.
Maybe he’s turning the corner?
But to read this Walder rave about Diaby’s win-rates, you’d think the Bucs had the second coming of Jared Allen on their roster.
Bold prediction: Bucs edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record a sack. Diaby is hot, with a 22% pass rush win rate at edge since Week 14 that ranks sixth in that span, along with 1.5 sacks in his past two games. In Week 18, he’ll mostly face rookie Taliese Fuaga, whose 83% pass block win rate ranks 59th out of 66 tackles.
So let Joe get this straight: So a “win-rate” of 22 percent is good? Not 88 percent, but 22 percent? Joe’s a word guy, and 22 percent “win rate” seems more like a “lose-rate.”
The way Walder is crowing about Diaby’s win-rate, Joe would expect a lot more production than just 1.5 sacks in the last two games. But hey, that’s just Joe.
Joe will just type this: If the Bucs believed Diaby was as dominant as Walder claims, then why are the Bucs fooling around bringing Shaq Barrett out of mothballs?
Something doesn’t add up here.
January 4th, 2025 at 10:03 am
Depth acquisition
January 4th, 2025 at 10:13 am
Because JTS sucks!
January 4th, 2025 at 10:13 am
I don’t understand your confusion. Context was provided. Yaya ranks *6th* since week 14. Against up to 63 other edge rushers. sounding like he’s doing very well. Am I missing something?
January 4th, 2025 at 10:14 am
“So let Joe get this straight: So a “win-rate” of 22 percent is good? Not 88 percent, but 22 percent? Joe’s a word guy, and 22 percent “win rate” seems more like a “lose-rate.”
Let that football ignorance shine through, Joe. The best pass rushers in the league are typically around 30%.
January 4th, 2025 at 10:17 am
Because JTS couldn’t sack a duck!
January 4th, 2025 at 10:27 am
If you had 5 rushers all with 22% success rate (and I am assuming that means you beat your guy fairly cleanly to QB) that would mean on 80% of plays you would have serious QB pressure. Sounds pretty good to me.
Flip it, if you had a tackle getting beat 22% of the time, how long would he last on your team?
January 4th, 2025 at 10:31 am
They define it as how often a rusher beats his blocker within 2.5s. A rate in the 20s is superior (you are top 10 if you’re there), and there are only a handful of guys who do it with power *and* edge (think Parsons, Garrett, Bosa, and Crosby).
The same stat is used for OTs, which might provide the contextual nuance you seem to be missing. If a Tackle holds their block for at least 2.5s, it’s a win for them instead. The top 20 OTs are 91% and up, with Wirfs tied for the lead at 95%.
If an OT can’t sniff a an All-Pro nod if they’re under 93%, then an EDGE winning against guys who themselves win 90% of the time would be in the single digits. If he’s putting up 22%, and facing someone tomorrow who is in Kenyatta Walker territory, it bodes very well for him.
January 4th, 2025 at 10:34 am
Joe,
Did you come up with “stats without context is fool’s gold”?
As someone who loves analysing stats, this description is spot on!!
January 4th, 2025 at 10:36 am
Diaby has been a bust so far. Simple as that.
January 4th, 2025 at 10:37 am
Sixth-best win rate doesn’t sound too bad. Of course Bowles drops his edges back into coverage a lot so no sacks there Joe.. Nobody will get a sack if receivers are quickly wide open, and the opposing QB throws the ball in under 2 seconds. Also, when was the last time the Bucs had a coverage sack? I like sacks, but QB hits are great too as they wear a QB down as the game goes on.
I expected YaYa to step up this year, he loves the game and plays with a lot of effort. Too bad his position coaches haven’t taught him any moves other than how to drop back in coverage. Time to sack some coaches…
January 4th, 2025 at 10:38 am
Maybe he’s turning the corner, that’s a good one. He just gets over powered by big NFL tackles, he’s not that good. He could be better if the Bucs got him bigger, stronger, and forget dropping in coverage, just hold the edge, and rush the passer. Todd likes weak arse undersized OLBs who can cover the flat. You want a real edge? Trade for Garrett, or Crosby. YaYa will never be one of those, just like JTS.
January 4th, 2025 at 10:39 am
I heard they brought Shaw back because Jill Tryon has a piano recital a tea party planned for tomorrow so she won’t be available.
January 4th, 2025 at 10:40 am
*Shaq
January 4th, 2025 at 10:47 am
I think the signing of Shaq is one of three things, of maybe combination. 1. Wake up call to current edges who are underperforming. 2. They think he is ready to get back to playing solid (hopefully even better!) football again after time with family and healing his heel. 3. Good look bringing a player back who is publicly crying out for a 2nd chance with his old team who cut him when you got literally nothing to lose from doing so!
January 4th, 2025 at 10:51 am
Me personally, I think #2 rings home the most! I was optimistic when we signed baker last year that it’s a nothing to lose play that could be HUGE and it worked out better than I could have ever imagined. Hoping Licht was rubbing his genie lamp again when he called up Shaq cause I’ve been saying the last 2 months that the one thing holding us back from being great (besides Godwin :(… ) is an edge rusher who can bend the pocket. We get even 10 sack a year Shaq for the home stretch I’ll tell you what.. WATCH OUT NFC!!!! That opens up our entire defense for Bowles to get back to being able to run his defense the way he wants. If olines gotta start paying attention to the DE then that makes the DTs that much more deadly. I firmly believe that Yayas lack of production is that he is like a WR2, he’s not a Mike Evans off the edge but he can be a hell of a McMillan rushing if he gets some attention thrown elsewhere
January 4th, 2025 at 11:04 am
Sacks are critical and I get that. But there is more than one way to get er done.
I don’t care if a superstar gets twenty sacks or it takes 3 guys at 6-7 sacks each to hit that number.
I do not care if it comes from an edge rusher, interior Dl, blitzing lb or Db just get the QB on the freaking ground.
Sack are hard to credit many times. Sometimes it’s very clear, one guy simply makes an incredible play and gets the QB, most times sacks are the result of a TEAM effort, IE when Vea occupies two OL and creates an opening for the blitzer or a looping OLB Vea gets no credit in the sack even though it might be true he was LITERALLY the reason for the possible sack to begin with.
I love sacks as much as anybody. I do not care where or how the Bucs get them. Having a GREAT pass rusher is obviously an advantage but it’s not the end all and be all. Just get the QB on the freaking ground!
January 4th, 2025 at 11:14 am
Good points Stpete.
January 4th, 2025 at 11:52 am
While I agree with your disappointment in ‘sack credits’, I somewhat disagree that *where* sacks come from does not make a difference. I believe that an OC would have a harder time game-planning against 3 good defenders than one great defender.
January 4th, 2025 at 11:59 am
So what the Joe-Joes are really saying is that JL the GM is a bad draft selector. Whaat?–Joe.. Just saying there are better GMs out there..
January 4th, 2025 at 12:38 pm
I read somewhere recently that YaYa is 4th in the league for pressures by an OLB.
I believe at least 3 of Diaby’s pressures this year have resulted in turnovers for our defense….
He’s also stuffing most of the run plays that come his way.
So YaYa is not getting many sacks this year – but is playing well and affecting the game.
January 4th, 2025 at 12:59 pm
“Playing well and affecting the game.”
Good description under this scheme. Though JPP, for example, dented the stat sheet and the quarterback on a regular basis. In the same scheme.
One other player to look at is Logan Hall. He’s been a disappointment but is putting together a fine year. Kinda like Will Gohlson, he plays a position with low visibility in Todd’s defense. And by holding down that spot he lets Licht and the gang use draft capital on other needs.
January 4th, 2025 at 1:23 pm
Maybe, I’m missing something here, but I do not expect seeing Shaq ever even ‘sniff’ seeing the field, much less being any kind of a factor, whatsoever. Just an emergency ‘depth piece’ for the Playoffs, & a big Cheerleader, is all.
January 4th, 2025 at 1:25 pm
And, I don’t understand why ANYONE would ever think or believe any different!? I just can’t and don’t see it, at all.
January 4th, 2025 at 1:34 pm
Hadn’t played in a GAME all year, & IF we can JUST (just LoL) get “10-Sack A Year Shaq Back!” Better Watch Out. Lmao.
January 4th, 2025 at 1:42 pm
Kancey came in and started producing sacks game one. Vea, LVD, and even Hall have produced sacks.
No matter how you look at it, Yaya, JTS, and Braz have been a disappointment. If they weren’t, Licht would not have resigned Shaq.
January 4th, 2025 at 1:42 pm
Jason light biggest flaw is not knowing when to rid himself of a player or when to move on. I know yaya is only in his second yr, but yaya is not it nor is he him. Seems like Jason gon keep JTS till he retires smh. I pray they let Dean go at seasons end and our first 2 picks should be corners in the draft no matter what. Well CB and MLB
January 4th, 2025 at 1:46 pm
Yeah, outside of an extremely, incredibly ‘special’ player, with ridiculous instincts (and some luck), the ‘first-guy’ through, rarely gets him, anyway. Especially, nowadays, given the ‘mobility’ of just a much better athlete playing at the QB position. There are really, only just a handful of ‘those guys’ across the league, who can do THAT year after year, at a consistent level.
January 4th, 2025 at 2:00 pm
Hawk
“I believe that an OC would have a harder time game-planning against 3 good defenders than one great defender.”
Excellent point! The Bucs are top ten in sacks. A more important stat for me is what happens when the Bucs don’t get a sack. Is it feast or famine? IE Is it’s record a sack or no pressure with a QB having far too much time to scan the field?
Given the Bucs are in reasonable position sack wise wouldn’t one think going forward the Bucs are set if they’re healthy? I don’t know.
I do not view film or all 22’s like coaches. I can’t honestly tell you how many times the Bucs failed to pressure the QB, he had all day, and made the coverage look foolish. OR how many times the coverage simple WAS foolish to begin with. I SUSPECT it’s some of both and if a stat head wishes to clue me in on the culprit for all those easy completions feel free to educate.
Please no more Todd Bowles mentions in your answers…just critique the players for once. Are the easy completions TOTALLY due to scheme or is their some lack of skill involved as well. When did the majority of the EASY completions come and who was on the front seven when it happened and which CB’s get burnt the worst.
My over “feeling” is that the rush at times was good at other times it wasn’t enough. Coverage is another thing. Given the talent merry go round on the D this season it’s hard to make truly definitive judgments.
Although I’ve personally seen enough of Dean to let him walk. He has talent but he has been fragile since his college days, its why he had to leave OSU for Auburn. Now that he’s very wealthy it also “appears” that some “motivation” has perhaps disappeared although I hate to make that kind of an observation about a guy putting his body on the line every play he’s out there. Still it’s part of the job. McCuillough has no trouble bringing the wood!! Tykee Smith also not afraid to hit.
January 4th, 2025 at 2:09 pm
Braswell and Diaby’s skill set may be better suited for playing ILB.
January 4th, 2025 at 2:20 pm
Jogging Joe Tryon 🤣
January 4th, 2025 at 2:51 pm
*leveling up our defense
January 4th, 2025 at 3:20 pm
100-22 is 78. Not 88.
January 4th, 2025 at 4:22 pm
I listen to live games on radio. So, I see recorded highlights. In at least 90% of them, JTS is already in the opposing team’s backfield helping to disrupt it. Joes shows the highlights but never remark on JTS. Bowles has kept JTS for some reason, and I bet that is a big reason why.
January 4th, 2025 at 5:48 pm
According to Joe’s logic, if he covered MLB, a .350 batting average would be horrible since you didn’t get a hit 65% of the time.
Diaby is grading out as one of the better edge rushers in the NFL this season, blowing out his promising rookie stats.
No, Joe, sacks aren’t the be-all and end end-all of success at the position.