The Weird Scoring-First Stat
December 25th, 2024
Fast starts.
Joe could understand if the following took place during the reign of former Bucs commander Greg Schiano, with rookie QB Mike Glennon leading his offense.
(And let’s be real: It wouldn’t have been much better with veteran Glennon leading Schiano’s offense.)
But to have an offense like the Bucs have with Liam Coen calling the shots, the second-best offensive coordinator in Bucs history, unable to rally to a win from even a small deficit early is just weird.
The Bucs are winless this season when they do not score first.
When the Bucs do score first, they’re 8-1.
Yes, that means even if the Bucs only trail 3-0, like what happened in North Texas on Sunday night, it is apparently an insurmountable obstacle.
Bowles was asked about this yesterday.
“Fast starts are a huge part, especially for us,” Bowles said. “We’ve got to get off to a fast start.
“I think we can come from behind, but when you get out and get a lead early and you’re able to pad that lead, it helps you play a little better.”
Well so far, the Bucs have not been able to win from behind, at least when the opponent scores first. This is so weird to Joe.
The Bucs are fifth in the NFL in points per game (28.5) but no matter, if the opponent scores first, the Bucs are doomed.
Last year under former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, the Bucs never scored a touchdown on their opening drive. Under Coen, the Bucs score plenty and lead the NFL in first-quarter scoring.
Yet last year, even when the Bucs notoriously started slow, they damn near got to the NFC title game. But even with a high-powered offense under Coen, the Bucs cannot overcome a 3-0 hole.
Such a mystery.
December 25th, 2024 at 10:09 am
If they are flat, they are probably going to lose; and if they are flat, the other team will probably score first.
December 25th, 2024 at 10:18 am
First drive we had a bad drop on 4th down. Didn’t seem like a game changing play at the time but every drive matters. It’s a turnover but they don’t track those turnovers. Can’t blame Bowles or mayfield or anyone else but Sheppard for dropping that wide open pass. Fundamentals.
December 25th, 2024 at 10:36 am
Bucs are mentally weak…especially on defense….very soft early on defense and near halftime. Poor coaching loses us close games….choking with untimely penalties & turnovers….
Other than that, we’re good…
December 25th, 2024 at 10:41 am
We have seen the Bucs momentum of scoring early, coming back from behind, and hurry up. They have to know they do better when they have all of it going too and we know they can do it. I am very optimistic they will bring it to the field this Sunday and the next week too. Go Bucs!
December 25th, 2024 at 11:18 am
The bend but don’t break Defense when working may keep teams out of the end zone, but it lets teams drive up and down the field and control the clock while doing so. This keeps our offense off the field and scrambling at the end of games.
December 25th, 2024 at 11:19 am
High snaps were a problem all game which causes timing problems. The offense was under pressure and you could see they were not handling it well. Dallas could stack the line anytime they wanted. Credit them they did what they had to do.
December 25th, 2024 at 11:26 am
we lost when the cowboys win the toss and elected to receive lol
the shepard drop on 4th down was huge
same with russell dropping the int
rachaad fumbling
you can’t do that and beat a decent team
the cowboys are way better than early in the season and deserve
to be in the playoffs but too late for them
Carolina is competitive but we should beat them Atlanta should lose and all good
maybe Baker should have taken the sack instead of shoveling it too rachaad
December 25th, 2024 at 11:32 am
Mcmillan needs to hit the weights…thats all i gotta say about that…You too Rachaad!!! Yall cost us…..OWN IT AND WIN THESE NEXT TWO! Todd and Baker also!!!
December 25th, 2024 at 11:40 am
Todd needs to go
December 25th, 2024 at 11:47 am
Head coach is the reason we can’t win close games. His demeanor has festered all the way through out the team and it cannot dig itself out of the hole his defense puts the team in. He catches himself thinking he’s fooling everybody with his exotic blitzes when he’s the only one being fooled. Having guys doing things they didn’t do before is the #1 problem with his scheme. Plus he gets out coached almost every game and doesn’t know how to make good crunch time decisions. With this OC and his offense if we had a better defense and head coach we’d be contenders and not pretenders every year.
December 25th, 2024 at 11:51 am
STOP THE DANG P O P U P S !!!! DON’T YOU HAVE ENOUGH A D V E R T I S I N G ON THE MAIN SCREEN?????
December 25th, 2024 at 11:51 am
yes the drops by Shep were huge and McMillan too. Dallas came out ready.perfect game plan.Get the ball first maintain possession drive the field short passes over the middle,keep Tampa’s offense off the field. Tat coupled with when Tampa had the ball early dropped balls, failure to convert 4 down, giving Dalas a short field , you knew Dallas was way ahead of us.Joe the thing about not being able to come from behind fits here. You can’t come from behind when your defense doesn’t get off the field. That is exactly what happened the first half. Whe we did get the ball we failed to do something with it. Once a team gets behind you must abandon the running game , which happened the second half. Dallas could tee off and with out Goodwin the offense is not good enough to win on passing only. Yes make no mistake we need the running game. Hats off to Dallas they executed a flawless game plan and we aided them along the way. This was a perfect recipe for them and a disaster for us. Itis that simple. Want to bet what Car does, lol
December 25th, 2024 at 11:58 am
Part of the game either be a fan or not ….its a hard buccs life being a fan if yall been fans before 2000 yall know but these fan have been spoiled after brady i dnt think half of yall are true fans most are ex New England Patriots it just brings a different feel to being abucs fan having so many non real fans
December 25th, 2024 at 12:06 pm
The Bucs need to realize this. When the conventional wisdom when you win the toss is to defer to the second half but when teams play Tanpa Bay, they take the ball, that should tell you something. The opposition knows that statistic. That said, if the defense could actually stop the opponents offense from scoring and then the Bucs go score that would definitely help, too. The point is, the Bucs have to be mentally prepared for this and just buck this losing when scoring second trend. No excuse to not be able to do so.
December 25th, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Don’t know if it works on all phones but I rotate screen and half page ad stops.
[Or just click out of it. Two seconds man, two seconds. Joe has to deal with these too and Joe’s on this site 12-18 hours a day. — Joe.]
December 25th, 2024 at 12:53 pm
That’s what I do on my Pixel with Chrome
December 25th, 2024 at 2:01 pm
Easy to understand. Soft defense, reflecting their coaching.
December 25th, 2024 at 2:03 pm
Tampabaybucfan: “Bucs are mentally weak…especially on defense….very soft early on defense and near halftime. Poor coaching loses us close games….choking with untimely penalties & turnovers….
Other than that, we’re good…”
It cannot be better said.
December 25th, 2024 at 4:43 pm
@ Bucnjim
The problem was not the Bend But Don’t Break defense the Bucs were playing. The problem was that the 30th ranked Cowboys defense used Bend But Don’t Break to shutdown the Bucs 4th ranked offense.
The average NFL drive lasts 2:45 seconds.
The Bucs defense held the Cowboys to just two drives longer that were longer than that average:
– 5:54 for 30 yards and a FG on the opening drive
– 3:53 for 13 yards and a punt in the late 3rd and early 4th quarters
The Bucs defense held six of the Cowboys other nine drives to under two minutes.
So, no, the Bucs defense did not let the Cowboys hold the ball and run the clock out on the Bucs.
Actually, it was the Bucs offense that held the ball and ran the clock out on the Bucs.
The longest Bucs drives were:
– 6:02, 43 yards, FG
– 5:53, 6 yards, Punt (from the Dallas 25, 21 yards lost to the Tampa 44)
– 5:01, 25 yards, Punt (from the Dallas 45)
– 4:09, 22 yards, Turnover on Downs ( 4th & 3 at the Dallas 48)
Scoring only 3 points in 21:05 on the Bucs four longest possessions, the Bucs offense ran out the clock on the Bucs.
The Bucs defense was nearly perfect against the five Dallas drives in the second half:
– 5 plays, 30 yards, 2:34, FG
– 5 plays, 13 yards, 3:53, Punt (penalties caused No Plays and Repeat Downs)
– 3 plays, 13; yards, 1:38
– 3 plays, 8 yards, 1:39
– 3 plays, 8 yards, 0:56
– 3 plays, -4 yards, 1:31 End of Game
In the second half, the Bucs defense limited Time of Possession for Dallas to 12:11, and they gave the ball back to the offense five times while yielding only 3 points in the half. That was an excellent half of football and an impressive turnaround for the defense that yielded two touchdowns on big play drives in the first half.
Unfortunately, with six possessions totaling 17:49, the 4th ranked offense in the league, averaging 14 points per half, could only score 10 points in the half against the 30th ranked defense in the league.
To give credit where it is due, the Dallas defense deserves a lot of credit for the way they punched and ripped at the ball; their level of effort made the game winnable for them. That along with a fair bit of ineptitude by the excellent Bucs offense that usually performs much better.
December 25th, 2024 at 7:58 pm
Tampabaybucfan Says:
December 25th, 2024 at 10:36 am
Bucs are mentally weak…especially on defense….very soft early on defense and near halftime. Poor coaching loses us close games….choking with untimely penalties & turnovers….
Other than that, we’re good…
I’ll add playing players that are totally ineffective AKA JTS and others. Valuable roster spots spent on those that prevent other margeniable
December 25th, 2024 at 8:02 pm
…players that could be valuable when injuries decimate us. Also when the system is obviously to be indecipherable to the ordinary (non-Pro Bowl) players. I could add other things before “we’re good”.
December 25th, 2024 at 8:31 pm
Um… It’s because the offense has no faith in the defense. They feel they have to take the lead early and keep scoring to keep it. Until the offense gets a two score lead they feel every possession is a must score. And they are right.