Bucs’ Postseason Probability Jumps To 58 Percent
December 2nd, 2024
Anyone else remember how the Bucs needed witchcraft and a miracle forced fumble to beat the Panthers last year in Week 18 to make the playoffs?
Joe sure does.
That’s football. It’s not good, inspiring football when your team struggles against the dregs of the league with everything on the line. But it’s still the NFL. Crazy things happen to every team, good and bad.
Joe doesn’t recall Bucs fans sitting around bars last spring talking about how the Bucs were one Rachaad White fourth-down run in December — aka a Falcons missed tackle — from losing in Atlanta to dismal Desmond Ridder and missing the playoffs.
No, fans talked all spring about the Bucs taking the Lions to the brink in Round 2 of the playoffs.
So “this Joe” isn’t about to do much today but celebrate a sweet victory againt a hated division rival yesterday.
And per NFL.com calculations, the Bucs, down one of the best receivers in the NFL, Chris Godwin, now have a 58 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Atlanta’s magic percentage sits at 57 percent. That’s right, “57.”
The Athletic/New York Times data models also show the Bucs with a 58 percent chance of the reaching the playoffs. They have Atlanta at 63 percent.
The exciting thing for those who want to see the Bucs playing a big game in January is how much the Bucs’ Wild Card chances have jumped. They’re in a strong tiebreaker position after yesterday’s win, if they end up tied with multiple teams at a 10-7 record.
Flash poll posted at 7:25 a.m. Poll closed at 8:59 a.m.
December 2nd, 2024 at 7:26 am
Wow, someone needs to tell this Joe we aren’t allowed to be happy today.
Seriously, I am super happy today. We just won the game in which was easily our worst of the year. That’s a good thing.
December 2nd, 2024 at 7:31 am
On paper…… to the eye I’d give the Panthers a better chance.
December 2nd, 2024 at 7:39 am
Drunk Bucs fan, I agree!
December 2nd, 2024 at 7:39 am
Godeke is a journeyman at best…
December 2nd, 2024 at 8:16 am
As far as wins and losses nothing happened yesterday in the NFCS that was not expected.
Didn’t expect Cousins to look as bad as he did against the Best scoring defense in the league but barring a chip shot FG miss by Koo Falcons were good shape for a FG and there would not have been a need for throwing into double coverage.
As 13 point favorites the Luckaneers did not impress. One timely turnover and the defense finally making a play saved the season.
Should the Bucs get to the last leg of the Tour de France / Playoffs I don’t see them doing much with a couple bent rims and duct tape holding the bike together. if the Bucs reach the playoffs Mayfield will have plenty of stats but will be so busted up that they will be one and done if he is in the game at all.
From what I have seen Tampa better get as much mileage out of this season because Canales and the Panthers will own the Division for the next decade.
Kicking and special teams changed the outcome of quite a few games and the Bucs were one of the beneficiarie.
December 2nd, 2024 at 8:19 am
The reason why the Bucs have an edge on any tie breaker is because they are one of the few NFC teams who have a chance at making the playoffs who have lost all of their games versus the AFC so far: Denver, KC, Baltimore with the Chargers and Raiders to go. Hey, take any advantage you can! Bucs won the tie breaker over the Saints last year due to the common opponent the breaker: Bucs lost to Buffalo, while the Saints beat New England….. Still it is a big reach by anyone to think that the Bucs will be in any tie-breaker conversation for a wildcard at 10-7, after yesterday, it is hard to believe the Bucs could win 4 of the last 5….. Better chance is if the ATL continues to implode and the Bucs get the division by default…..
December 2nd, 2024 at 8:23 am
One and done is not my definition of success.
I don’t care if this team makes the playoffs or not. They are in no way able to win a Lombardi on the D side of the ball.
Anyone mentioning Bowles D “genius” needs a severe WWF wedgie.
December 2nd, 2024 at 9:00 am
It was a trap game, Bucs had to play late afternoon-they are not used to that, the whole team started off, Panthers had momentum. Lots and lots of penalties that seemed aimed at the Bucs. Bucs learn how to win ugly again and that is important too. Better that than giving up. Man–Nelson did not give up when it seemed all was lost. Bucs kept looking for a way to win. Chiefs win ugly every week.
December 2nd, 2024 at 9:40 am
Good teams find ways to win and at times win ugly. The defense is abysmal and not good but if we were truly a bad team we would’ve lost.
December 2nd, 2024 at 11:32 am
I don’t think division games are ever trap games. Zero reason to overlook the Panthers yesterday. They have been playing well, took the Chiefs to the wire the week before and the Bucs need to basically win out.
Denver was a trap game, even though they are better than we thought at the time.
December 2nd, 2024 at 11:47 am
I think it’s a stretch to believe that a Wild Card can come out of the NFC South. Looks like you’ll get two Wild Cards out of the North and the Commanders have the inside track on the last slot.
December 2nd, 2024 at 12:55 pm
I voted ‘great.’ I was thrilled to see a victory, ugly or not. I think the NFCSo. is going to be a dogfight between the Bucs and Hotlanta. Carolina is getting there, but you might as well forget the Aints. Someone stuck a fork in them weeks ago.
December 2nd, 2024 at 12:57 pm
We need more of “That Joe” and less of “This Joe.”
There is nothing but outrage that should be expressed. For those journalists who are allowed in the room for the presser, Bowels needs to be “pressed” about his ridiculous failing defense. Even though he doesn’t like to press.
Here’s what the data says, what disgusted fans saw and recognize. (From league website)
Bryce Young was at his best passing against the Buccaneers’ zone coverage in Week 13, completing 23 of 32 attempts for a season-high 242 yards (+5.3% CPOE). Against man coverage, Young completed just 3 of 14 attempts for 56 yards (-9.8% CPOE).