BSPN: Math Favors Bucs
December 6th, 2024
Joe still has deep, unsettled issues with nuns and math. But at the end of the day, math doesn’t lie (but numbers do!).
Joe will let Dan Graziano of BSPN take over here. He and the statheads at the four-letter say, with five games left in the regular season, the Bucs have the edge to win the NFC South and host another playoff game this winter.
Graziano said that while he was inclined to pick the Cardinals or Rams as a team considered an “outsider” to make the playoffs, Graziano admits the math says the Bucs, who while tied with the Dixie Chicks at 6-6, are on the wrong end of a tiebreaker.
Tampa Bay has a 56.5% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN’s Football Power Index, which is higher than any NFC South team. So while I would have loved to make the case for the Cardinals or Rams and stay consistent with what I said here last week, I can’t ignore the math or the fact that the Falcons really aren’t playing well.
Well, are the Bucs playing well? They sure did against the Giants but damn if they didn’t look like they tried to lay an egg last week in Charlotte.
Nothing about the Bucs defense fills Joe with any degree of trust. And after the miracle win over the Stinking Panthers, “this Joe” doesn’t trust this team to run the table. Even ending the season 4-1 seems like a mountain to overcome.
“This Joe” hopes to be wrong and that the Bucs dominate each game like they did in New Jersey two weeks ago.
December 6th, 2024 at 7:20 am
I really don’t want this to happen but I have a crazy feeling that atl beats the vikings this week.
December 6th, 2024 at 7:30 am
Here it is, you only can control what you can control. If the Bucs win out they are int the playoffs. The teams that they are chasing is Atlanta and Washington. Washington and Atlanta play each other so they don’t have the ability to win out. One of those teams will lose.
December 6th, 2024 at 7:54 am
I hope you’re wrong too, Joe. 🙂
December 6th, 2024 at 8:16 am
They need a little confidence and hopefully, it starts with this week’s game against the Raiders. Nothing is easy, but I do like the fact that the remaining division games are at home. If we can somehow get past the Chargers D we may be looking good.
December 6th, 2024 at 8:21 am
It is more of an uphill climb to win a wild card spot, so the best chance is to win the division. Go Bucs…and Vikings (just this weekend).
December 6th, 2024 at 8:35 am
If you throw the logic of Coach Bowles into the mathematical equation does the chance of the Bucs making the playoff drop significantly? My guess is yes. You know..like not calling a timeout at the end of a game with 30+ seconds on the clock for a shot at points.
December 6th, 2024 at 8:47 am
Still worth remembering Bucs are the only team that beat Detroit this year thru week 14. Hope that Bucs defense will bear down for the stretch run. Was not encouraged last week at Carolina. We could use the defense that showed against the Giants but realistically even that performance came against a horrible offense with a third string QB.
December 6th, 2024 at 8:57 am
Is this the Joe who couldn’t fathom adding up two percentage categories of a poll? I can absolutely see why math makes you uncomfortable.
December 6th, 2024 at 9:03 am
Joe writes well but his math leaves something to be desired
December 6th, 2024 at 9:05 am
I have mixed feelings. Yes I would like to see the Bucs win the division again. I would like to see the defense improve over the last 5 games.I would like to see them win a playoff game. However, then I look at the defense and think, with this defense how can they win the division unless the other teams completely implode. Then if they did somehow win the division do I want to see this defense in the playoffs?. How much is possible for the defense to improve with the play at outside and middlelinebacker, not to mention Dean playing on an island somewhere distant from the receivers he is covering. Will the safeties suddenly begin to show up?. Well I give you this, if we could get back the defense we had in the Detroit game, I would say yes it is possible. So Joe Ira, can you Guys ask the Bucs too bring back that defense. Then maybe?. However, I think that defense has left town and is not returning anytime soon.
Then the realistic side of me says, until we get the talent needed on defense we are just dreaming about winning the division and going to the playoffs. Yes unfortunately we need some drastic changes on defense, cause that defense we saw in Detriot is off on some remote island never to be found.In its place we have a defense that is one of the worst in the league. A defense like that doesn’t go to the playoffs.
December 6th, 2024 at 9:32 am
Mayfield threw 2 bad interceptions and the punter was terrible …and they still won.
Mayfield playing well is the key to the Bucs making the playoffs.
The Defense just can’t get a break this season on injuries , but they are playing hard and the team is fighting through mistakes.
No excuse for not beating the Raiders. Every game is a playoff game until the playoffs are achieved or they’re eliminated.
December 6th, 2024 at 9:38 am
Based on ATL’s schedule, looks like they win three more games , so 9-8 is most likely. Bucs can go 10-7 if the defense doesn’t totally deteriorate and if Bowles doesn’t have another brain fart. Two big”ifs”.
December 6th, 2024 at 9:42 am
@Gbobucs : I know it i’ve been feeling it all week myself let’s hope we’re wrong hopefully Atlanta loses by 1 point it’s going to be a battle.
December 6th, 2024 at 9:54 am
I like 10-7,, I think that gets us in ,, NFC west still beating up each other , Wash still has ATL, Phily , Dallas, ,, GB still has a few tough games left ,,,
Win Sunday , one game,, the rest will take care of itself ,,
Once you get in the dance , anything can happen, and teams that can run the ball and win TOP,,, Might not be probable to beat Det/Phily/Minn, but it’s not impossible with some good fortune ,
win Sunday!
December 6th, 2024 at 9:57 am
Unfortunately these Bucs, because of how bad the Pass Defense is will at least lose 2-3 games. Dallas, LAC and drop one against the CLT or NO. Just the reality right now. We just dont play aggressively enough in the secondary.
December 6th, 2024 at 10:13 am
Bill Kilmer- no, you won’t get the defense the Bucs had for the Lions game. Quite a few of those players are injured, some of which are gone for the season. It’s something we tend to forget sometimes when evaluating Bowles and his defense.
December 6th, 2024 at 2:32 pm
We’ve got a good shot…. Lucky to still be in that position.
Another week, another opportunity to improve and take one step closer to “the dance”.
Here’s to hope 🤞🏼!