Analysis: Mike Evans Is Carrying Bucs Passing Game
December 28th, 2024
One-man gang in pass game.
Forgive Mike Evans if he has a sore back. Because he’s carrying the Bucs’ passing offense.
That’s the word from one of the foremost football minds in the world of analytics, and that’s the creator of DVOA and the founder of Football Outsiders (RIP), Aaron Schatz.
Last year after Schatz sold his baby Football Outsiders and as a result watched it go kaput, Schatz shifted his work to FTN Fantasy where he still works his superior analytics-based analysis, replete with DVOA data.
(Don’t ask Joe to define “DVOA” but it is largely recognized as solid data.)
Anyway, Schatz was digging and found something that ought to freak out Bucs fans. Since Chris Godwin went down with his ankle injury against the Crows, the Bucs have downright sucked against man coverage, Schatz’s research shows.
That is, with the exception of Evans.
And look out now, Schatz types for BSPN, the Bucs’ last two opponents run primarily man-coverage defenses and the slimy Saints are better at it than many may realize.
According to FTN Fantasy charting, Mayfield ranks 33rd of 42 qualified quarterbacks in DVOA against man coverage since Week 7. Mike Evans, the Bucs’ other star receiver, hasn’t been the issue, as he has a 28.5% DVOA against man coverage this season. The problem is everyone else. Receivers Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan, along with tight end Cade Otton, all have negative DVOA ratings against man looks.
Week 7 is when Godwin was lost for the season.
Joe is a little surprised at this because, hey, if the Bucs were really this rotten against man coverage, wouldn’t opponents run almost nothing but man against the Bucs?
In fact, Otton, before he got hurt before the Dallas game, was playing some of his best ball of his career. Did he make his plays mostly against zone coverage?
Schatz is one of the smartest football analysts Joe’s met and knows. So Schatz’s research findings are very, very interesting to Joe.
December 28th, 2024 at 8:07 am
I think J Mac does big things tomorrow. Seems like he grows week to week.
December 28th, 2024 at 8:15 am
But actually the Panthers games sets up nicely for two Bucs; Evans and Bucky. The Panthers can’t cover Evans and they can’t stop the run. Both could end the day seriously close to the 1000 yard mark.
December 28th, 2024 at 8:16 am
“…if the Bucs were really this rotten against man coverage, wouldn’t opponents run almost nothing but man against the Bucs?”
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You are using the wrong logic Joe. Sucking at a coverage does not stop Todd from running his cover-0 zone against the Bucs opponents
December 28th, 2024 at 9:07 am
I think the forcast for tomorrow is a good chance of storms and wind gusts of 25 mph… Dont think either team will be throwing a ton
December 28th, 2024 at 9:23 am
Censorship is more extreme than biased information seeking because, in addition to biasing one’s own online environment, censorship delimits the online content that other people are exposed to. Also, by silencing dissenters, censorship prevents them from voicing their views.
December 28th, 2024 at 9:56 am
Excellent analysis on Mike. Hoping to see McMillan do well. Going to miss Izzy and Shepard this week.
Enjoyed reading the article. it seems they are picking the Bucs to win but not by much. Always good to read about Baker’s incredible stats too. Good stuff.
December 28th, 2024 at 10:06 am
Bowles awful defensive schemes will always make the Bucs vulnerable, no matter the opposition. History supports this
December 28th, 2024 at 10:20 am
I bet Baker handles wind pretty well. He throws fastballs and played in Cleveland.
Bucs should win easily if they are dialed in. If not, it is time to bring in a new head coach. Same deal next week!
December 28th, 2024 at 11:00 am
Permanently Moderated is right.
December 28th, 2024 at 1:22 pm
Exactly Larrd! Dink and dunk all day means a victory! Go Bucs!!
December 28th, 2024 at 4:42 pm
Weather could get iffy tomorrow. RJS has been forced to stop games cos of it. ME13 is getting better cos the hammy is bothering him hardly at all. Has Coen called any type of QB rollouts or QB bootleg options? Not enough, especially for a short QB like Mayfield. Coen is not HC level yet. He still hasn’t called a total game, injuries and all. He better win the final two games with this offense. That will take the pressure off a crippled defense. Plus, the punting with Camarda gone has been beyond bad.
December 28th, 2024 at 5:35 pm
What happened to all that “Trey Palmer is the quickest off the snap in the league” stuff? Put him in motion, create natural rubs. Open. Catch. And if he really sucks, then do that with Mikey. I’m smelling a head coaching intervention on the presnap motions.
Hey if Trey Palmer sucks, then demote him to the practice squad and get someone else who can run a fly route.
Time has kinda passed for “lack of fundamentals” to still be a thing, Coach.