The NFL In 2024: Dink-And-Dunk Works
November 8th, 2024
Short passes; big numbers.
It wasn’t long ago that Joe used to cringe thinking about a short-passing offense.
Joe was more of a Bucco Bruce Arians, Dirk Koetter kind of a guy. Get those receivers deep and let ‘er rip!
No risk it; no biscuit!
Liam Coen is not that kind of guy. Or, the Bucs’ offensive coordinator built a short-passing offense because that style gets the most out of Baker Mayfield’s talents?
Whatever the motivation, it’s working well enough that Joe is pretty convinced Coen will be working elsewhere as a head coach in 2025.
Joe doesn’t want to see Coen go, but hey, if Dave Canales can get a gig after one year as Bucs offensive coordinator, so should Coen. His offense is putting up much better numbers.
What surprised Joe is that the Mayfield/Coen duo is doing this with a dink-and-dunk offense. Joe has documented each week Mayfield’s passing and not very often does he throw farther than 20 yards downfield.
Again, Joe cannot quibble. The offense is working.
This short-passing may be a trend. Someone who goes by the handle of @Doug_Analytics put out a chart of the 36 top quarterbacks for attempting passes 20 yards downfield. Joe was a bit surprised to see Mayfield at No. 31.
“Surprised,” meaning Joe didn’t think Mayfield’s numbers would be that low.
Mayfield attempts a pass 20-yards or longer on 8.6 percent of his throws.
Among other quarterbacks who had similarly few long pass attempts, Pat Mahomes ranked No. 36! Jayden Daniels is No. 22 and below him are Dak Prescott (23) Matt Stafford (26) Joe Burrow (29) and Jared Goff (35).
Those are are damn good quarterbacks — with numbers throwing deep right around Mayfield’s rate.
So you can win running a dink-and-dunk offense. Is this style now the new norm in the NFL?
Ira Kaufman Talks Fan Disenchantment, The 2-Point Saga, Expectations, Liam Coen, And More
How often does each QB attempt a pass 20+ yards downfield?
(weeks 1-9)Mahomes 😢 pic.twitter.com/EVhsHRKz0b
— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) November 7, 2024
November 8th, 2024 at 4:25 am
Goff is 35th and Mahommes is 36th? Damn Baker, quit throwing downfield so much!
November 8th, 2024 at 5:01 am
If we allow Coen out the door Licht isnt doing his job! You have to promote him and allow the offense to grow further in year 2. Hire Saleh for the defense
November 8th, 2024 at 5:29 am
10 yards at a time, move the sticks. Manning with the Broncos mastered the short game. His offense would eat clock, and it always came away with a score. What I like about this offense is I think it works against ANY defense, vs. Arians offense required long developing routes, stud blocking WRs, and taking big shots down field, which is simply low percentage football, not to mention you better have a great offensive line that can hold the blocks.
November 8th, 2024 at 5:57 am
Running the ball well is still a tried and true method of success. Currently the Top 7 teams in rushing yards will make the playoffs IMHO. Bucs rank 8th in rushing yardage. Run the ball.
November 8th, 2024 at 6:39 am
Not so sure about your take on Coen getting a head coaching gig. How did Canales work out in Carolina? A one-year stint as an OC or DC doesn’t necessarily translate into a HC.
November 8th, 2024 at 6:56 am
Except against the Bucs. Everything works against the LovieII atrocity.
November 8th, 2024 at 7:49 am
What I was saying earlier in the year.. finally joe has caught up
November 8th, 2024 at 8:30 am
I’ve read a lot on this site about involving your best players when the game is on the line. Doesn’t that logic apply to coaches as well? Whose stock is higher on the coaching staff? If push came to shove, we’re going to invest more into that Sears stock and sell that Apple stock?
November 8th, 2024 at 8:34 am
Well, he doesn’t really have anyone to throw to downfield. Dink and dunk is fine as long as the ball is moving.
November 8th, 2024 at 8:34 am
It’s not as much fun to watch but we are scoring a lot of points. While the offensive line has been better, I still don’t think they give Mayfield enough time to get deep. Unless of course they were playing against our defense.
November 8th, 2024 at 8:40 am
Coen could end up in Jacksonville to revive the Hair’s career.
November 8th, 2024 at 8:52 am
The league has increasingly adopted a two-high safety alignment as a countermeasure to limit explosive plays. By deploying two safeties deep, defenses can neutralize vertical threats like Tyreek Hill, significantly reducing the chances of big, downfield plays. This coverage structure forces offenses to rely more on short and intermediate routes, while limiting opportunities for wide receivers to break free for long touchdowns. The focus on preventing the big play through coverage over the top creates a shift in the offensive dynamic, but it also opens the door for new strategies.
In particular, teams that utilize two-tight end formations—especially with a tight end who can exploit mismatches against the middle linebacker/safety—could dominate. The seam between the two safeties in a Cover 2 defense remains a clear vulnerability, one that offenses with the right personnel will be well-positioned to exploit. You could also incorporate an additional wide receiver, but using a tight end would force the defense to remain in Cover 2, setting up the potential for a dominant play-action seam route.
When defenses are forced to switch to Cover 3, Man Coverage 1, or even zero coverage, offenses can then take advantage by running the ball in Cover 3 or taking a deep shot when the defense has a single-high safety. Football, at its core, is simple—just take what the defense gives you.
November 8th, 2024 at 8:55 am
Shaking my head.
How soon y’all forget.
Doesn’t anybody remember
the start of the season when
the running backs went wild and
all the talk was about the two high safety
limiting the deep passes?
Did you think the defense wouldn’t respond
to League rule allowing “Happy Passing”?
November 8th, 2024 at 9:16 am
Coen seems to be a coach that looks at what his players strengths and weaknesses are and tailors his system to them.
Bowels is more of a “this is my system and the players need to adapt themselves to it” kind of coach.
I prefer Coen’s approach, seems to get better results.
November 8th, 2024 at 9:43 am
This is what Coen’s offense looks like when we don’t have any WR that can go deep and an oline that still can’t protect for longer than 2.5 seconds.
Mayfield’s ADoT in his rookie year was over 9 ypa and was amongst the league’s best deep throwers.
This is a personnel issue issue limiting what can happen.
November 8th, 2024 at 9:48 am
It’s amusing to me how quickly many of us forget how when Goedeke was out we transitioned to an even quicker passing game to deal with Skule and the sudden increase of pressure and sacks.
Mayfield’s time to throw was 2.1 seconds in the early part of the KC game …which would have been a record for Mayfield.
This is all by schematic design to address the deficiencies at WR and pass blocking.
It’s also this quick passing game which is inflating the appearance of the Oline statistics and helping in the rushing attack as the opposing defense has to be quick to react to do different vectors of attack in first 2 seconds of a play.
November 8th, 2024 at 10:09 am
Fortunately we have a complementary unit on defense that allows long, time consuming drives resulting in scores so the offense isn’t tired. That Lovoe2 is a doggone genius. Sorry to use dogs’ name in vain.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:21 pm
I couldn’t care less about deep passes vs. dink-and-dunk passes. As long as the chains are moving and points are being scored I couldn’t care less about how it happens. Baker Mayfield is currently an elite QB by every measure.
November 8th, 2024 at 12:50 pm
With a modestly mediocre HC and the exact same play plus a three or so average quality in game decisions, Bucs are 7-2 right now, both Atlanta games and the Chiefs. No chance this fact is lost on the Glazers and on Jason.
With a modestly mediocre DC, 8-1.
The rate limiting factor is as obvious as the on-field catatonic stare,
November 8th, 2024 at 1:10 pm
Seems like it would be easier to cover a long route, when you pretty much know where the receiver is going. Maybe shorter yardage throws = unpredictable changes of direction = separation?
November 8th, 2024 at 1:19 pm
Of course dink and dunk….especially now without Evans and Godwin.
November 9th, 2024 at 12:07 am
Well it’s not a generic Jon Gruden boring west coast dink and dunk offense, it’s really creative – and caters to the players abilities. For example, Baker is not a good downfield thrower, that’s obvious to anyone that isn’t a Baker Boi. But, who cares. Tom Brady wasn’t a good runner — well, solution, don’t ask him to run. That’s what I’m so impressed with about Coen, he’s willing to make changes to account to the personnel. Baker is very good at keeping plays alive and is very accurate with short passes – and he’s being used that way. The only thing I wish they’d do different is be more creative with White, let him play that Deebo role as a RB/WR combo. It did take Coen a couple of weeks to adjust to Sucke at tackle, so perhaps we’re going to see some new wrinkles with White this week. Hopefully they have something ready since defense will adjust to the dink and dunk stuff after years of the Bucs being an aggressive downfield offense.