Bucs’ Playoff Probability Rises
November 15th, 2024
So on Monday, Joe highlighted NFL.com data models showing the Bucs’ shot at the playoffs is 33 percent.
New York Times spreadsheeters had the Bucs with a 15 percent probability.
After last night’s Eagles win against the Commandoes, the Bucs numbers have improved. The New York Times model bumped the Bucs to 18 percent and NFL.com hiked Tampa Bay’s postseason chances to 37 percent.
It’s all about the Bucs’ remaining schedule. That explains why the Bucs, at 4-6, have much better odds of making the postseason than the Rams, Bears and Seahawks, which all have 4-5 records.
NFL data analytics queen Cynthia Frelund freshly crafted her own data and has stamped the Bucs at 8.6 wins this season. Of course, there’s no such thing as a “.6” victory, so that means she sees the Bucs losing three more games.
Damn, if the Bucs actually lose three more games against the likes of the Giants, Panthers (twice) and Raiders, plus the imploding Cowboys and slimy Saints, then Joe will ready for big changes. That would be an unacceptable result.
One thing, however, is very clear from all the data studies, a 10-7 record will be required to make the NFC postseason.
((For those wondering, here’s the New York Times explanation of its postseason probability numbers …. “We create an offensive and defensive projection for every NFL team from a linear regression model that incorporates various metrics, such as Expected Points Added and Success Rate. These projections estimate how many points each team would be expected to score and allow in a game against an average opponent at a neutral site. We then assign a probability of how likely a team is to win a given me by adjusting for opponent and location. Taking into account each team’s current record, health and remaining schedule, we use these game-by-game projections to simulate the rest of the season (including the playoffs) 100,000 times.”)
November 15th, 2024 at 8:38 am
I truly will not invest my feelings into the notion of us making the playoffs. I watched how the first falcons game, the KC game and the 9ers game ended. We dont deserve to be in thr playoffs. We deserve a Defensive Coordinator. God Bless and Go Bucs.
November 15th, 2024 at 8:39 am
So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance
November 15th, 2024 at 8:43 am
100% Bucs win out the season and make a deep run in the playoffs. It’s going to happen, Keeping it real in Ireland.
November 15th, 2024 at 8:46 am
Bucs will run the table
November 15th, 2024 at 8:59 am
Go Bucs!
November 15th, 2024 at 9:00 am
Hopeium is my illegal vice of preference.
November 15th, 2024 at 9:08 am
Per my Italian friend Miguel, “just cut the BS”. This season is over. Look at the real bright side, higher draft ang an a new oaching staff.
November 15th, 2024 at 9:27 am
Are the pints going down good today, Irish Laughter? 😆
November 15th, 2024 at 9:33 am
I’d never trust anything from an Italian man who’s named Miguel….
November 15th, 2024 at 10:06 am
Making the playoffs is meaningless. Lots of bad teams make the Wild Card. That Eagles team the Bucs beat last year was a mess. If you don’t make the second round, you aren’t a contender at all. That should be the standard. All this 9-8, 8-9 formula stuff to sneak into the tournament is nonsense.
November 15th, 2024 at 10:09 am
My household we still believe in the Baker we trust big fan of young Bucky Love the danger of Rashad White by Kevin’s coming back hell even the defense is getting a little stronger I know I know it doesn’t take much for it to get any stronger but it is…..let’s freaking go Bucs
November 15th, 2024 at 11:05 am
Let’s go Broncos!
I am fully confident (health dependent) in the Bucs being at least 5-2 after the bye. My fear are those last 2 division games. Gonna need both and after how last year went… I have my doubts.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:12 am
Remember that time we won out our last 8 games, the Super Bowl, after our bye week? Repeat that, let’s go!
November 15th, 2024 at 11:12 am
Once we resign Mike Edward, the defense will play well enough to win the division. While in the playoffs Bowles will get himself fired with his decision making like last playoff game in Detroit. He flat out gave up.
Horrrrrble!
November 15th, 2024 at 11:12 am
In 2020^
November 15th, 2024 at 11:14 am
Gulp. In my household, we still believe in punctuation.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:16 am
I’m with SteveK!!!
The sun is shining!
I predict we will not lose this Sunday.
Go Bucs!!
November 15th, 2024 at 11:22 am
Playoffs, Playoffs!!!. My goodness with this defense!, playoffs.
LOL, I don’t think so. Joe says it best with this defense any team is cabable of beating this team. Yes, losing 3 of the next 7 truely possible if not likely.Really you do not want to see this defense in the playoffs. Please remember even with Jamal Dean , back, he plays soft and the middle of the field will be a problem, especially with little edge rush. We just need a few better players, till then please don’t talk playoffs.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:27 am
Playoffs!? This team blows.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:34 am
Bucs deserve a new Dc and a Hc. Bring on bellicheck. He has a new girlfriend and the sun will be good for him.