Bucs Playoff Probability Less Than 50 Percent
November 25th, 2024
The numbers nerds at the New York Times, apparently taking a break from releasing election exit poll data that some think is accurate, has re-calculated the likelihood of every NFL team reaching the 2024 postseason.
The metrics for the Bucs haven’t moved much, despite Tampa Bay beatdown of the Giants yesterday and many other NFC teams losing.
Per the Times, the Bucs’ chances of making the playoffs sit at 37 percent. That includes their 19 percent shot at winning the NFC South. So the Bucs sort of have a near equal chance of reaching the playoffs as a Wild Card or as a division champ.
Yeah, Joe wants the Bucs to win the division, but how fun would it be if the Bucs were a Wild Card and headed to Atlanta for Round 3 against the Falcons?
November 25th, 2024 at 12:37 pm
Don’t eat supper before breakfast, Panthers should be the only thing to think about….. Don’t skip ahead!!
November 25th, 2024 at 12:45 pm
These percentages change so drastically week to week. I’ll check back in on ther percentages closer to the end of the season. They mean nothing now.
November 25th, 2024 at 12:45 pm
10 wins and you are in but will need help because Packers, Vikings are most certainly on their way to Wild Card as Detroit is on its way to division champs. If Bucs and Niners have identical records at end of season Niners hold tiebreakers and Bucs are no longer a playoff discussion.
Winning all of their games is likely the best path to playoffs.
Thanks to them giving away the first Atlanta game they’ve dug a hole that will not allow them to get in with 10 wins unless Niners and Falcons fold down the stretch and lose 3 games.
Mathematically the Bucs are alive but they really don’t have any room for another loss unless Atlanta totally blows it and the Bucs have a better record than the Falcons.
November 25th, 2024 at 12:47 pm
Zzbucs, I (and other fans) will look where we want to, shut up with that old bull spit, the players are the ones who can’t do that. As fans it is our job to speculate.
November 25th, 2024 at 12:50 pm
I’ll take that bet all day. ATL’s next two games are against the Chargers and Minnesota. Two teams they will likely lose to. Bucs could be 7-6 while ATL is 6-7 in just a matter of weeks. Bucs control their destiny. Of course, would it surprise me to see Bryce young throw for 400 yards next week against Tampa? No. Is Detroit likely coming out of the NFC anyway? Yes. So it stands to reason to ask what is it all for except give Bowles another year or 2 which nobody wants. We all want that romanticized sliver of hope with the whole “thats why they play the game” kind of cliche that makes us believe that we could go on a magical run. And truth be told, the Bucs offense really is as good as anyones, and they could at minimum be a tough out
November 25th, 2024 at 1:02 pm
That first loss to Atlanta is such an embarrassing mark on their record. Records should be flipped… I think after the next 2 games, they will be.
November 25th, 2024 at 1:06 pm
Falcons play the Chargers at home after a short week since the Chargers play tonight also on the road. A gambling man might take the team not traveling 5 hours after said short week. Now I don’t know the Falcons current situation health-wise, or otherwise, but the game will be tougher for San Diego (LA, I know I know) than Atlanta. If they do beat the bolts, then I think you can pencil in Atlanta for the division since they also will play the Raiders and Giants. I hate it but that is my dispassionate analysis.
November 25th, 2024 at 1:06 pm
lol come on Joe. The nerds at NFl.com have our probability at 52%.
Sounds like we should not be quoting bunk statistics if there is so much variance across sources….
November 25th, 2024 at 1:07 pm
Look no further than TODD BOWLES for the gut wrenching embarrassing loss to the Falcons that will cost this team another division title. For that he must be purged ASAP.
November 25th, 2024 at 1:09 pm
The Raiders lost Gardner Minshew to a collarbone injury so we will definitely win that one
November 25th, 2024 at 1:18 pm
If the Bucs back in to a playoff birth, Todd will be back next season. Need a new H/C rather than going ‘one & done’ !!!!
November 25th, 2024 at 1:22 pm
Panthers 24 Bucs 17. Sorry Yucs fans. The fun is over. Bucs finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs. Todd Bowles is promptly fired.
November 25th, 2024 at 1:24 pm
how is the loss to atlanta the first game on toad bowles. that game lvd picked the ball off and then a missed facemask and a fumble by bucky irvung ended that game
November 25th, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Jeff, how correct were you about the giants game?
November 25th, 2024 at 1:45 pm
How about possibly winning 5 more games? Bucs are the only team to beat the Detroit Lions in Detroit early this year. It was a solid football team win. Detroit has never been in a SB. They are one of the original NFL teams. I hope they represent the NFC. I want the Bucs to play to their potential and win 4 more games in a row.
November 25th, 2024 at 2:00 pm
On to Carolina and beat them up.
All these models don’t include things like new injuries, turnovers, and players coming back from injury. Every model out there has different results.
Let’s see if the defense improves and the offense stays solid against Carolina.
November 25th, 2024 at 2:11 pm
Jack Burton – youre 1000% correct and I would normally agree, but my view of Atlanta is just so low. Their offensive line is extremely bad, which plays right in to the hands of that tough Charger D and defensive line, and the Falcons defensive front may be the very worst in the entire NFL with a putrid run d, which also plays right in to that tough Jim Harbaugh in your face rush offense. With the Chiefs looking fairly middling by their standards and Denver on their heels for the 6/7 seeding – every game for LA from here on out is pretty important and I dont see them slipping. They could not match up any better against Atlanta
November 25th, 2024 at 2:43 pm
@Mike C
Don’t play the tough guy card………
Just to be clear, I will say whatever I want, whenever I want, and I will give my opinion, and couldn’t care less what you say…
This new tough guys behind a keyboard are starting to bore me…..
November 25th, 2024 at 5:33 pm
Let’s win out and host the 10-7 Falcons instead.
November 25th, 2024 at 6:20 pm
zzbucs Says:
November 25th, 2024 at 2:43 pm
@Mike C
Don’t play the tough guy card………
Just to be clear, I will say whatever I want, whenever I want, and I will give my opinion, and couldn’t care less what you say…
This new tough guys behind a keyboard are starting to bore me…..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Takes one to know one …………….no?
November 27th, 2024 at 1:25 am
There’s virtually no way we’d play ATL unless one of the Vikings, Lions or Packers start falling apart.
ATL would be the 3 or 4 seed, so we’d have to be the 5 or 6, and that just doesn’t seem likely based on how many teams other NFC teams have.
November 27th, 2024 at 1:25 am
*how many wins other NFC Teams have