Bucs Defense Isn’t A Total Sieve — But Close
November 20th, 2024
Offenses explode on Bucs.
Disturbing numbers for a defense coached up by a defensive-minded head coach.
Joe remembers during the first season of Super Bowl-winning Bucco Bruce Arians’ days with the Bucs, his son, Jake Arians, remarked on Twitter about what he perceived as the sky-is-falling mentality of Bucs fans.
He couldn’t believe how Bucs fans curled into a fetal position and expected disaster rather than getting behind their team.
Well, the younger Mr. Arians never had to go through The Lost Decade.
The two hallmarks of the Lost Decade were no edge rush and defenses that got boatraced. Sound familiar?
Well, Joe read stats yesterday from data scientist (highfalutin title for “statgeek”) Sam Hoppen, currently of FantasyPros and soon to be for BSPN Bet. He listed the explosive play rate for NFL defenses.
(There are various definitions of explosive plays, depending on who is doing the numbercrunching. Hoppen defines explosive plays as pass or run plays of 15 yards or more.)
When it comes to the Bucs, it’s gross. It seems 11 percent of opposing offenses’ plays against the Bucs defense go for 15 yards or more. That puts the Bucs’ defense at No. 25 for explosive play rate.
The worst is the Browns who allow 12.5 percent of opponents’ plays to go for at least 15 yards.
With the Bucs, it really doesn’t matter if it is the run or the pass. Some 2.5 percent of runs against the Bucs defense go for 15 yards or more. That’s No. 23 in the league — depressing considering how much Bucs head coach Todd Bowles stresses stopping the run.
Pass defense? Hoppen has the Bucs ranked No. 24 with 8.7 percent of pass plays going for at least 15 yards.
This may not be as bad as The Smiths (Lovie and Mike). But that’s a helluva consolation prize for a team on the brink of being out of the playoff chase.
November 20th, 2024 at 5:10 am
I’m a relatively new fan. I’ve noticed the sky is falling behavior and really don’t like it. I picked up on the losing due to explosive plays thing about a month ago.
I’ve been trying to identify the weakness, and this is what I see. There have been several explosive plays by explosive players on really good and explosive teams. There have been injury’s and sometimes the younger players filling in are getting a little too aggressive and get beat. I’ve seen Brasswell shaking his head after plays he thought he had beat. I still think he will be a pro bowler. The transition from being a great college player to a great pro is tough. This is a youngish team and the kids have a great culture to improve in. This is a very good team with their best days ahead of them. This is also a great and unselfish organization that must stay intact. I have confidence in Todd too. The sky is not falling.
November 20th, 2024 at 5:30 am
Bye Bowles
November 20th, 2024 at 5:54 am
Agreed HC, the sooner the better. I want our team to win not stay mediocre forever
November 20th, 2024 at 6:59 am
Wow look at that explosive play chart. It’s easier figuring the N.Y. stock exchange. Thanks for all those crunched numbers Joe, but you didn’t need to bother. We’ve all seen with our own eyes the last ten games how bad this defense is. I had great seats for the 49er game where I watched first hand how easy it is to drive down the field on this defense for the winning score. I witnessed two OT losses where our offense didn’t get even get a chance because of how bad the defense is. Glad you have numbers to back it up, but don’t bother. This defense can’t even pass the eye test.
November 20th, 2024 at 7:29 am
Basically been going on since Monte left. When he said he was leaving the collapse began. We got JPP and that crew to stop the bleeding for a while. But once they were gone we are back to the days Monte left. Totally sad .
November 20th, 2024 at 7:53 am
Ahh … the Toilet Bowles defense.
November 20th, 2024 at 7:56 am
The eye test is enough to know Bowels has created a horrible defense…
Nearly every game if not every game opponents receivers constantly get as open as they do in college….
Bowels track record is the indictment against him!
November 20th, 2024 at 8:28 am
Ha! Blocked again! COWARD!
November 20th, 2024 at 8:37 am
I’m extremely disappointed by our OLBs this season… The Bucs just can’t generate enough pressure without blitzing.
I expected Braswell would need a year to get up to speed but Diaby, Nelson and JTS have all been pretty lackluster so far.
November 20th, 2024 at 8:38 am
@Timmy, Welcome!
I agree with you about the team and its direction. They have a bunch of good young players and JL is a good GM. Over time, if he is here, you will see the problem with Bowles.
November 20th, 2024 at 8:42 am
“A Seive” would be an improvement for this D.
November 20th, 2024 at 9:52 am
I think the Glazers are loyal to a fault. Todd Bowles has been a talented defensive coordinator but we have had a few years now with the “experiment” of him as a Head Coach while serving as the defensive coordinator. Currently only the Chiefs, Seahawks and Bucs are in that category. Let’s face it it’s been a colossal disaster and Bowles doesn’t have the coaching acumen to do both roles.
This offseason it’s time to promote Cohen to HC. Promote either Thaddeus Lewis, Larry Foote, or Bryan Mcclendan to OC. I cannot pretend to know who has the best chemistry with Cohen and Cohen would probably still call plays as OC anyways.
The biggest move that needs to be made is we NEED a Defensive coordinator again. Not a H.C. / Defensive coordinator combo. If we go with Liam we should take a look at bringing in an upcoming assistant like Steelers LB coach Denzel Martin that has been with Tomlin for a number of years and players like Watt praise left and right. All these moves will satisfy the priority to “win now” with some of our aging stars.
November 20th, 2024 at 10:10 am
@Marine Buc. The Bucs can’t generate enough pressure even when blitzing. I agree the OLBs are horrible. Next year the Bucs need to go back to a full time 4-3 with real DEs. They need to get rid of JTS, and the world’s slowest LB and get some real impact players. The DLine also needs to be revamped and we need to sign some veteran starters.
November 20th, 2024 at 10:12 am
yes we all knoe the defense is horrible. Yes , the Bucs have some good young players, they need time to develop. On the otherhand, face it, the Bucs are short on talent at outside lb, middle linebacker and in my humble oinion one position at cb.
So as coaches you can only coach talent or lack thereof to a certain degree.In the end you have people who have missed or refused to see the lack of talent at these positions. Yes, other teams have caught on to Bowles’s scheme, which relies on smoke and mirrors to cover the lack of talent. In the end something must change and that usually starts with the HC. I don’t see change coming this year to this defense. There simply is not enough talent at needed positions.
November 20th, 2024 at 12:08 pm
I don’t want him fired.
I want him to be told to retire.
November 20th, 2024 at 12:25 pm
I am happy that there are thousands of Bucs fans who don’t post on here. Thousands who don’t think they would make a better coach than Bowles. Liam is just figuring out how to be a great OC and some on here want him to be a HC next year. I am glad that I am with the numerous fans who think that is silly.
And Tommy, welcome, glad to see you posting intelligently.
November 20th, 2024 at 12:47 pm
Pretty telling that all but 2 or 3 of the top 15 or so defenses in the league are led by DC’s with 4 or less years in the position, with multiple in their 1st or 2nd year. Long toothed DC’s likwe Fangio & Spags are the exceptions npwadays, def not the rule.
November 20th, 2024 at 2:34 pm
The obvious choice is to bring in a DC next season. The players, from what I’ve read, like Bowles as HC. Leave him there, but get him some talented coaching help. It’s hard to run two positions at the job, doesn’t matter where you work.
November 20th, 2024 at 4:32 pm
Crickett Baker, clearly you know very little about Liam Cohen. “Just now” figuring out got to be a good offensive coordinator? He literally has 4 years working under one of the greatest offensive minds in today’s NFL. He was a vital coach in the success of the Rams offense and their 2 Super Bowl appearances under Sean McVay. He had more first hand every day exposure to a Rams coaching group that is a dynasty in the Rams organization. Just figuring out how to be a successful HC is laughable. He is already an elite coach. I assume you meant since he only has played call one year in the “NFL”. You do realize when he left the Rams to go to Kentucky all he did was took McVay type plays, install that offense and turn Will Levis into one of the top QB in the nation. In 1 year. This thing he is doing for Baker Mayfield, Dude he already has done it for Will Levis and turned him into a NFL QB. The guy needs another year to get experience about as much as the Tampa area needs more Yankees fans. And that is just “silly”. Respectfully take a closer look at Liam Cohens actually coaching track record. He is ready ti be a NFL head coach right now.