Blame The Second-Down Defense
November 15th, 2024
Looking at first down conversions on Bucs defense.
In half the Bucs’ losses, including the past two, the Tampa Bay defense choked away the game like gagging dogs.
Final drives of the game turned out to be a losing drive for the Bucs defense. That’s not a good thing when your head coach is a defensive-minded guy and for all intents and purposes, he’s the defensive coordinator.
Peeling skins off the onion, the PFF tribe, specifically this Timo Riske, documents how only a handful of teams cough up more first downs than the Bucs.
Some 73 percent of series are converted into first downs on the Bucs defense. That puts the Bucs in a six-way tie for sixth-worse. Only the Cardinals, Commandos and Crows are likely playoff-bound teams that are as bad as the Bucs in allowing conversions, or worse.
(No, Joe’s not saying the Bucs are a likely playoff team.)
It seems second-down defense is the biggest culprit. Of the series’ in which opponents have converted a first down, 28 percent have come on second down.
On third down, the Bucs appear to be fine. A number of the best defenses in preventing conversions allow a higher percentage of third down conversions than the Bucs.
So whatever the Bucs are doing on second down, hopefully Bucs coach Todd Bowles, during this bye week break, figures out a different course of action.
November 15th, 2024 at 2:51 pm
Who’s ready for this 7-0 ride!!!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
November 15th, 2024 at 2:57 pm
Confirms the obvious, Bucs defense is pathetic. How is it going to get fixed without a wholesale change in personnel? These guys are poor tacklers and get routinely beat in coverage both zone and man.
November 15th, 2024 at 3:00 pm
Second down, you don’t know if they’re going to pass or through. If Britt is in there, they’re probably picking on him
November 15th, 2024 at 3:05 pm
Is the problem 2nd down or is it because they give up a Crap Ton of yards on first?
Converting on 2nd is much easier when only needing a couple yards.
Certainly Joe dug a little deeper to be sure and didn’t just look at a graph and decide they suck on 2nd Down.
Just looking at the graph the Lions give up a 1st 30% of the time and yet they sit at 8-1.
Always more to it than just Raw Data and Flouresent Colors.
November 15th, 2024 at 3:16 pm
Fair point. Joe can only go by the chart. It doesn’t specify the average number of yards needed for a conversion on second downs.
Well, the Bucs defense certainly isn’t good on second down defense if they are allowing nearly 30 percent of the defense’s conversions on second down.
November 15th, 2024 at 3:36 pm
Sorry joe I’ve seen these guys play every Sunday. The 3rd down is a big issue trust me. Do u know how many curse rants this team has caused me every Sunday playing soft zone on 3rd…..it’s nauseating
November 15th, 2024 at 3:37 pm
3rd and 19 isn’t given up by a 2nd down defense. Maybe a 2nd rate defense. Heck, that’s a compliment to Lovie and an insult to 2nd rate defenses.
When Barnum and Bailey makes a comeback, the dude pictured above will be their tar attraction.
November 15th, 2024 at 3:51 pm
*star attraction
November 15th, 2024 at 3:52 pm
Joe is just going by the data. And the data shows that more first downs (by percentage) are converted on second down against the Bucs than third downs — and just by percentages — the Bucs’ third down defense isn’t that horrible compared to the teams who allow the fewest conversions — per the data the PFF tribe presented.
Again, percentages.
Joe is just passing the data along. If you guys have problems with the data, am sure this Timo Riske character has an email. He appears to be thin-skinned as he likes to block folks on twitter.
November 15th, 2024 at 4:31 pm
The last 4 games, the Bucs’ D has faced:
Brock Purdy
Pat Mahomes
Kirk Cousins
Lamar Jackson
Bucs’ D has issues for sure, but those are tough opponents for any Defense.
November 15th, 2024 at 4:36 pm
Edwards will be in for second downs. Just wait for it. We are going to the Super Bowl!!!!!
November 15th, 2024 at 4:43 pm
I don’t know, Joe. Our defense seems more reminiscent of a cat choking up a hairball. I’ll watch more game film and get back to you.
November 15th, 2024 at 5:00 pm
Joe is just going by the data
Does Joe know that the data shows we’re 4-6 and a sniff away from irrelevance in the worst division in football?
That’s the problem with the stat nerds. They forget about the scoreboard and standings.
Turns out results actually do matter.
Unless you’re a DEI hire like Bowels.
November 15th, 2024 at 5:57 pm
1st down
2nd down
3rd down
This defense is just bad, and unwatchable. You would have to be borderline retarded to put the game into their hands to win it, oh wait…
November 15th, 2024 at 6:16 pm
Here is some solid data….Bowles defense sucks. He’s running out of time and better find some answers. I think I would bet a lot of money he loses to either the Giants in New York (we never play well there ) or to the Saints when they come here later on (even if Spencer Rattler is back playing by then), its how his coaching career has been here, up and down and up and down and then it flushes out to him having a below .500 record. If it continues, he will be flushed next…
November 15th, 2024 at 6:40 pm
BallChickadee 75. Unless you’re a DEI hire like Bowles? Really? Tells me all I need to know about you. Ignorance abounds.
November 15th, 2024 at 7:27 pm
I remember the words of Derrick Brooks as he spoke about the mindset of his defense that the protected every blade of grass. That was in the day when “business decisions “ were strictly about business not players take off a play or giving up on a play. In my years growing up in Pittsburgh either the likes of Joe Greene, Jack Lambert, Andy Russell, L C Greenwood and all the rest of those great teams, the Steelers fans screamed “Deeeefense”. They played vicious. Too bad those days are long gone. I’ve lost respect for today’s athletes. They seem to play dainty except the northern teams. The reality is the Bucs will not make the playoffs and if they did it would be one and out. Lots of work for a defensive rebuild. Very poor FO.
November 15th, 2024 at 7:40 pm
Beeej … ‘If Britt is in there, they’re probably picking on him’.
KJ’s not exactly my favorite ILB, but his numbers aren’t really as bad as many make them out to be:
o Britt: Targeted: 27 – Completed: 20 – Percentage: 74.1%
o LVD: Targeted: 44 – Completed: 39 – Percentage: 88.6%
o Dennis: Targeted: 11 – Completed: 10 – Percentage: 90.9%
For all the bad press that Devin White got on being terrible in coverage, he was targeted 43 times in 2024, they completed 29 of those for a 67.4% completion percentage and he only allowed 194 yards on those. Devin’s worst 2 years in coverage (2020 & 2021) were when Bowles had him blitzing a ton (224 blitzes in those 2 years). Got him 12.5 sacks, but cost him in coverage (he allowed 1170 yards in those 2 years).
November 15th, 2024 at 8:07 pm
I was so disappointed to see the Bucs appeared to have no interest in the lb released by Seattle. I just saw an article that Miami just picked him up. Apparently he has played really well this year and was 1 of the best defensive players on the team.
I understand not wanting to give up the future for a player, but Seattle released him for some unknown reason.
The Bucs really that blind thinking the middle lb play is going to suddenly improve with the players on the roster. All I can do is scratch my head In wonderment.
Maybe we are missing something here, but does anybody think the mlb play is going to change?. I don’t see any hope of that.
November 15th, 2024 at 9:11 pm
Joe … ‘Joe is just going by the data. And the data shows that more first downs (by percentage) are converted on second down against the Bucs than third downs — and just by percentages — the Bucs’ third down defense isn’t that horrible compared to the teams who allow the fewest conversions — per the data the PFF tribe presented. Again, percentages.’
You’re absolutely right on 1st, 2nd & 3rd downs Joe, but it’s 4th down that’s completely screwed us IMO. Opponents have gone for it on 4th down 19 times, and made 14 of those … for an incredible 73.7% (we rank #28 in that category). That’s abysmal, and it’s cost us several games because those 14 conversions on 4th down have kept drives alive and resulted in opponents scoring 6 TDs & 2 FGs … 48 points all together.
o In the loss to the Broncos, they converted 2 of 3 on 4th downs for 10 points (1 TD & 1 FG). Bucs lost by 19 points.
o In the loss to the Falcons (Game 1), they converted 2 of 3 on 4th downs for 10 points (1 TD & 1 FG). Bucs lost by 6 points.
o In the loss to the Ravens, they converted 1 of 1 on 4th downs for 7 points (1 TD). Bucs lost by 10 points.
o In the loss to the Falcons (Game 2), they converted 2 of 2 on 4th downs for 7 points (1 TD). Bucs lost by 5 points.
o In the loss to the Chiefs, they converted 1 of 1 on 4th downs for 7 points (1 TD). Bucs lost by 3 points.
Our 4th down conversion woes represented the difference between winning & losing in 3 games (Chiefs, Falcons, Falcons). Had our defense held on just THREE 4th down plays where we gave up TDs, our record would be 7-3 right instead of 4-6. And oh ya, giving up 48 points on 4th down conversions in just 10 games is gross. I’m not convinced that’s on coaching though. That’s on the 11 guys out there saying ‘Not today’ and holding the line.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:40 pm
Well, since nobody seems to understand why the defense has been so lousy, I guess there’s no reason they can’t inexplicably turn it around and start playing great.