Bucs Continue To Dink And Dunk: Baker Mayfield Week 6 Passing Chart
October 15th, 2024
Leads top-shelf offense.
Hey, the results speak for themselves, so Joe isn’t going to whine.
After roughly a third of the season (!) it is clear to Joe that Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s offense is dink and dunk.
But boy, is it working.
The NextGen Stats chart for Baker Mayfield is out for Week 6 and the pattern of not throwing long continues. Against the slimy Saints on Sunday, Mayfield threw a grand total of one pass farther than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. It was incomplete.
Recently, an NFL stat dude (Joe can’t remember the name) claimed on Twitter that no team threw fewer long passes this year than the Bucs.
* The Bucs lead the NFL in points scored, tied with Washington.
* The Bucs are ninth in the league in passing yards.
* The Bucs are sixth in the league in rushing yards.
* The Bucs are eighth in the league in total yards.
In other words, the Bucs offense is producing. That’s the name of the game no matter where the quarterback is throwing the ball.
The way things are going, Coen will be a head coach somewhere else next year. Joe hopes the Bucs are already doing their research on their 2025 offensive coordinator.
October 15th, 2024 at 3:48 am
May not be as exciting, but the yac, tuddies, and most certainly the dubs have been very exciting
October 15th, 2024 at 4:31 am
It’s dink and dunk because the O line hasn’t been holding up, as the season has progressed Baker has been throwing shorter passes and getting it out of his hands quicker which is a good adjustment to see. Baker is currently tied for 3rd worse clean pocket rate, you’re not throwing deep balls when you’ve got 1.7 seconds of clean pocket time and are leading the league in being blitzed.
October 15th, 2024 at 4:33 am
Need to loot coen up so he don’t leave. He’s been a great piece
October 15th, 2024 at 4:36 am
The Brady plan.
October 15th, 2024 at 4:43 am
Definitely need to look at securing Coen for more than one season. The Browns or some other train wreck will be interviewing him come playoff time!
October 15th, 2024 at 5:15 am
Agree offer Coen a contract extension. And also I think if we could get our entire o line on the field we might see more shots to Mike Evans, although I remember that one over 20 yard throw and it was on 3rd and like 6 when we needed points, and baker overthrew him
October 15th, 2024 at 5:22 am
These are exciting times for Buc fans. Since 1976, i don’t think I’ve ever seen such a potent complete offense. Come hell or high water, when on, these Bucs ball out. To throw down 51 with Winfield help, on the aints in their house…. Unheard of…
Brady had his moments, but this complete offense is something else. I hope they can keep this up!
Also I’ve noticed since dean has been out, this defense has a different look to it. No body seems lost out of sight, and in the tunnel when the ball is snapped. Refreshing.
October 15th, 2024 at 5:41 am
The dink-and-dunk works even better when you have a serious running game (as we saw Sunday). Saints HAD a very good defense, but even they couldn’t effectively stop our BALANCED ATTACK because they didn’t know what was coming next (Bucs could’ve rolled up an additional 20 points if we hadn’t stopped ourselves on several drives with 12 penalties & 3 turnovers).
Bucs’ offense nearly DOUBLED the Saints’ total yardage (594 yds vs 303 yds). No one’s mentioning the SAINTS’ turnovers yet (3 of them), but we scored 21 points off their 3 turnovers. Off of the BUCS’ 3 turnovers, the Saints scored 10 points, plus another 7 points due to our S/Ts falling asleep on the punt return for a TD.
Bucs played a LOT of very nice COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL Sunday. Although we imploded in the 2nd qtr, we recovered beautifully in the 2nd half.
October 15th, 2024 at 5:56 am
Baker Mayfield got a chance to work with Liam in LA for 5 or 6 weeks. Obviously some mutual respect there. Probably the “in” Liam needed to get the job here. He may or may not be head coaching material. But he doesn’t seem to be stupid. Quite the opposite. He knows this team is sprinkled with gold dust and should be competing for titles for the next 5 years anyway. Five years from now he’ll have plenty of opportunities. And the longer he has success here the more opportunities he’ll have. I bet he wouldn’t take the Carolina job regardless of the money offered. He would rather have a long career. Because he loves the game and the players more than he loves money. At least I hope so.
October 15th, 2024 at 6:05 am
Does he really want to end up like Canales? The grass isn’t always greener and the talent is never the same.
October 15th, 2024 at 6:21 am
Can’t speak to the other weeks but in this case, Lattimore was all over the field (he was blocked three times on Becky’s angry run). Why let a guy who won’t tackle, knock a ball down on a deep throw. Just run right through him for YAC. #brilliant
October 15th, 2024 at 6:22 am
Canales is going to be a physical BEAST in five more years. He has a six year contract making BANK. Imagine the gym time he’s going to have the next five years once Tepper fires him at the end of this season and moves on to a shinier new object.
Getting paid MILLIONS to push iron, smile and spread good cheer.
WOW! What a great gig he negotiated!
October 15th, 2024 at 6:25 am
I think we’re going to have a little of both. I think it’s trying to build the trust in the offensive line, and seeing if we can get 1 on 1 matches up with Mike. We have yet to give any of the younger guys a chance to stretch the field, ala Scotty Miller. I think it’s coming, and perhaps we’re saving that for the right opportunity.
Personally, I like moving the sticks 10 yards at a time vs No risk it no biscuit…Arians offense required long developing routes, which our line is really not allowing that kind of comfort in the pocket. These short passes allows Baker to get into a rhythm, with Mike Evans serving as a decoy, it’s unpredictable when it comes to passing opportunities. Arians offense is splashy, but I have not missed the long-ball here in Tampa. I feel like it’s a match up situation that we will audible to if the time is right. Moving the sticks has almost guaranteed us we come away with points.
October 15th, 2024 at 6:33 am
Kenton Smith… unfortunately, Coen hasn’t stayed anywhere long. His football resume has lots of one years stops.
October 15th, 2024 at 6:57 am
The best play in our playbook is a WR screen to Godwin, that Baker doesn’t throw beyond the line of scrimmage so that OL can get downfield, and it pops for 15-20 yards 3 out of 5 times they run it. Ironic of all, pretty sure Leftwich introduced this play to the offense!
Godwin and Tucker’s YAC yesterday is helping skew these stats a little bit still in a small sample, but dang this is fun to watch!
October 15th, 2024 at 7:18 am
Liam might stay! There was some guy claiming to be Liam’s uncle in the Tampa Bay Bucs comments on their YouTube channel praising the Bucs organization because of how they treated Liam. He thinks he has found a home for the first time in his professional coaching career in Tampa bay because he can be himself as an play-caller and that there was no work place tension.
Probably means nothing but IF true I’d like to think Coach Coen stays at least one more year after this one!!
October 15th, 2024 at 7:26 am
Pro-Football-Reference (PFR) Advanced Passing stats show very clearly what’s going on with the Bucs’ passing game this year. Baker’s on-track to have his biggest year by taking dink-and-dunk DOWN to a whole new level. And it’s working perfectly for him.
o His career Completion Percentage is 62.5%. Last season (1st with the Bucs) it was 64.3% … this season he’s completing 70.9% of his passes.
o His Intended Air Yards per Pass Attempt (IAY/PA) … the Average Depth of Target whether completed or not … is 4.0 this season, BY FAR the LOWEST it’s ever been. Last season his IAY/PA was 8.5 and the year prior it averaged around 7.0 with the Panthers & Rams. It varied from 8.5 to 9.3 in his 4 years with the Browns. He’s taken dink-and-dunk to a whole new level with the 4.0 IAY/PA.
o But it’s paying off in multiple ways. Baker is on-track to throw FEWER passes this year (536) than he did last year (566). Yet he’s also on-track to complete MORE passes this season (380) than he did last season (364). Fewer passes, more completions … Whodathunkit? Despite the shorter passes, he’s also on-track to throw considerably more TDs this season (43) than he did last season (28). Also on-track to get more passing yards this season (4218) than he did last season (4044). Apparently ‘less is more’ when it comes to Baker & dink-and-dunk. And Coen figured that out; not Canales.
o Baker’s also on-track to take a few more sacks this year (48) than last year (40), but that only tells part of the story IMO. He’s being blitzed a tad more than he was last season (not dramatically more), but his ‘Pressure Percentage’ is actually down (17.1% this year vs 17.6% last season). He’s on-track to scramble a LOT more than he has ever scrambled (45 times projected for this season vs 29 last season which was his career high). His Yards/Scramble is also much higher this year (8.5 Yards/Scramble) than it was last season (5.9 Yards/Scramble). Got a hunch that Coen is giving him a lot more ‘opportunity’ to run than Canales did last year.
Overall it looks like Coen’s version of dink-and-dunk is serving the Bucs (and Baker and Godwin) very well. Mike Evans? Not so much … yet.
October 15th, 2024 at 7:40 am
Dink and dunk all you want 51 points in the nfl doesn’t happen every week
October 15th, 2024 at 7:44 am
The weight loss and having a competent offensive coordinator this year is gold for Baker.
Coen is gone after this year and we need to be prepared. I love this offense and starting over is scary.
October 15th, 2024 at 7:48 am
He ain’t getting sacked by Hutchinson again, so there’s THAT
October 15th, 2024 at 8:24 am
We gotta keep Liam in town if he keeps this up.
October 15th, 2024 at 8:42 am
Hutchinson won’t be sacking anybody the rest of this season; he’s out. Talk about baddest of bad luck. Man, we’ve had plenty of it here. DR, ME13 needs to get that hammy healed. He’s no rookie anymore. Otherwise, your usual excellent analysis was spot-on. I remember when Koetter was putting the finishing touches on building the best offense (‘cept for Famous Turnover Jameis) Bucs ever had. I would get so excited and frustrated at the same time. I think Coen will be here for another year. Why not? He’s got cart blanche and plenty of talent to play with. Plus, I really like Mayfield. He’s still playing with his fiery feistiness but he’s controlling it. Monday nite will be a big test. Go Bucs!!
October 15th, 2024 at 9:10 am
Who care his offense is awesome almost no wasted downs unlike last year with David Canales’s aka Mike Shula – revival tour. Run middle 2 downs in a row for 2 yards loss and then Baker has to try to make a 3 and long. He is showing his coaching ability in Carolina that is for sure (sarcasm) – glad he is gone and we got arguably one of the best play callers in the league. Just hope we can keep him and he doesn’t go to one of the premier openings (like Dallas for instance).
October 15th, 2024 at 9:14 am
Hope at some point we see the long ball from Baker. He still has the longest throw from scrimmage in NFL history. The ball was in the air for 75 yards. Of course, for this to happen we will need stronger O line play and safeties to get out of 2 High defense which has limited the long ball throughout the NFL this year. The right response to 2 High defense is to throw underneath and run the ball effectively. O line is still developing. Hope Goedke can stay healthy. Think there must be a spot for Hainsey on the line. Might try either Barton or Hainsey at LG. Not entirely sold on Barton as CENTER.
October 15th, 2024 at 9:43 am
Offense is the key. BA and Brady proved that. Liam is re-proving it. It’s a must. This defense cannot be trusted to stop even a subpar QB or prevent a last minute drive after getting a lead. No number of capitalized words or copy/pasted stats can change that reality.
40 burgers are the new 30 burger .
October 15th, 2024 at 9:51 am
@FARMER,
RIGHT ON THE MONEY SIR!!!
October 15th, 2024 at 10:01 am
I dont care if it’s dink and dunk or bombs away, whatever puts points on the board. Keep doing it if defenses can’t stop it.
October 15th, 2024 at 10:04 am
Live by the sword. Die by the sword.
Three games Bucs Averaged 257 yards of offense. Two losses and a fortunate outcome in Detroit.
Three games Bucs averaged 477 yards of offense. Three wins.
Screens are a continuation of the run game and if Defenses take that away things will bog down. Detroit’s passing game is much more evolved and requires more skill at the QB position than just playing hot potato.
As of now there is nothing about Coens offense that screams Jaugernaut. It’s more of tell of the bad/soft defenses that they have faced.
If the Bucs put up a total yardage closer to 1000 than 2000 the next 4 games they will be 5-5 going into the Bye. Exactly the record this kind of Offense is geared towards.
October 15th, 2024 at 10:11 am
The Bucs need to give Coen a promotion at the end of the year ton keep him from leaving.
Make him ‘Assistant Head Coach’ of the Offense, similar to what we did to keep Monte Kiffin from leaving back in the day.
October 15th, 2024 at 10:28 am
The Bucs need to do everything possible to keep Coen and if not then please god find someone Coen believes in to groom as his successor and keep this system going lol.
October 15th, 2024 at 10:30 am
I think this is me coming more clear that our o-line isn’t where it needs to be. If the run game can keep this up against the Ravens, I’ll change my tune, but for now I’m still at the point where Baker HAS to get rid of the ball too quickly for the long ball to be reliable. It also has to do with the fact that we don’t have a receiver who can consistently take the top off of a defense.
If I’m right, the dunk & dunk will continue. Maybe once Barton is back, Goedeke gets his starting legs back under him, and maybe if the Sean Tucker experiment continues..MAYBE then the long all will make a return. Until then I just don’t see it (even though the Ravens secondary is weak).
October 15th, 2024 at 11:30 am
Promote Cown to assistant HC and give a boatload of money to keep him here and succeed Bowles when Bowles retires. I don’t think he’s going to coach for more than another 2 years tbh.
October 15th, 2024 at 11:30 am
*Coen to assistant HC and give him a boatload of money
October 15th, 2024 at 11:31 am
Compare the passing attack in week 1 versus once Goedeke went out and Evans got injured.
Palmer and McMillan were out for multiple games.
Teams have been dropping 7 and playing two high safetys against us and daring us to run or play the short passing game, which we’ve obliged.
We have no legitimate deep threat with Evans hobbled and Palmer out.
This short-game has been how the offense can thrive given all of the above.
This is the OC and QB taking what the defense is giving them while also lacking the players to allow for a deep passing attack and a reliable oline to allow for passes beyond 10-20 yards.
October 15th, 2024 at 11:32 am
Did I read this correctly? 1 of 9 (1 INT, 1 TD) on passes over 10 yards in the air.
October 15th, 2024 at 12:15 pm
@ swampbuc Hey man don’t fool yourself Baker is more valuable to this team than evans also the overthrow you’re referring to probably would have been dropped and TRUE fans root for their team not 1 player.
October 15th, 2024 at 12:18 pm
There’s two things that the dink and the dunk does that are really good. It keeps the ball away from the opposition’s Offense. It lowers the possibilities of mistakes. Even though baker through three interceptions last week. Second half he played a perfect game. The third thing.
It allows these big wide receiversthat Tampa has along with. The quick little guys, the break one open.
Like Chris Godwin did. And other small receiversalso broke Some.
Open for long gains. Downfield throws are great , but they don’t eat up the clock. And they don’t keep the ball away from the opposition.
October 15th, 2024 at 12:34 pm
It’s the West Coast offense short passing game.
Championships have been won with it.
October 15th, 2024 at 12:47 pm
Godwin is a league leader in catches and yards.
Evans and Godwin lead league with three others at 5 TD catches.
Baker leads the league in TD throws.
Bucky Irving is already 19 in league in yards.
Irving is second to Derrick Henry in YPC.
I am pretty happy with the offense this year!
October 15th, 2024 at 1:15 pm
Those aren’t dink and dunks, those are lasers to the right receivers.
October 15th, 2024 at 5:09 pm
The Bucs are pounding that rock and taking what they give em. Obviously that worked against the Saints, 51-27. How will the Ravens defend the Buccaneers? That may determine whether we dink and dunk or play long ball. Realistically, the dink and dunk works for the Bucs because these passes have higher completion rates than the long ball and when completed,there is a rocket attached to the ball (Godwin, Evans, Tucker, Palmer, Irving, White,) and others.
I agree totally it’s a West Coast offense but much more complex than just a West Coast Offense. Thanks to Coach Coen !!
Go Bucs !!
October 15th, 2024 at 5:29 pm
DCone,
We all saw Detroit O Line in the playoff game last year give Goff unlimited time in the pocket to hit his talented receivers. Detroit mastered what Brady’s teams mastered—-very strong O lines. Bucs line is not there yet but showing some promise with a healthy Goedeke. There is no way Brady was ever going to tolerate a leaky line that would force him to run for his life. Hoping that Baker doesn’t get clobbered with his scrambles.
October 15th, 2024 at 5:42 pm
You can tell the clowns from knowledgeable fans…..keep moving the chains, that what winning teams do.