Betting The Bucs (Week 6 Edition)
October 13th, 2024
Joe got kicked in the gut last week and is now 4-4 on the season after a Week 1 focused on futures wagers.
Joe’s pregame feature here is no here’s-a-pick, get-your-best-bet thing. Highlighted are Bucs-related lines weekly in this space and how Joe is — and is not — throwing cash around.
(Sports betting is legal in Florida but there’s only one government-regulated Florida sportsbook monopoly run by the Seminole tribe. That’s where Joe gets the betting lines.)
**Buccaneers 3 1/2 over Saints (-105) — Yes, this will be the first time here that Joe picks a point spread in a Bucs game. What Joe can’t ignore is that the slimy Saints have lost three consecutive games and their offense was struggling with Derek Carr in those games. And now comes rookie QB Spencer Rattler to start today. He was a fifth-round pick and this will be his regular-season debut. Baker Mayfield has a strong road record in his career and he’s been good away from home with the Bucs. The Bucs also pounded the Saints in New Orleans last year, so there should be no intimidation. Getting three Bucs starters today should help a lot, as should 10 days rest and New Orleans on just six days rest after getting beat soundly Monday night in Kansas City. That Monday night game for the Saints means Rattler didn’t get a regular week of practice, which isn’t going help him. This is a ♦♦♦ play for Joe.
Alvin Kamara Over 32.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Forget 32.5 yards, Kamara has had 40 or more yards receiving in four of five games this season. With rookie Rattler starting at quarterback, Joe sees the Saints trying to build his rhythm and confidence with short throws to Kamara early. And Joe sees the Bucs playing soft coverage on some 3rd-and-longs, daring an easy dumpoff to Kamara for a catch-and run. It’s another ♦♦♦ play for Joe.
Spencer Rattler Over 15.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
So rookie quarterbacks are known for getting nervous, pulling the ball down and taking off. That happens even more when it’s the rookie’s first start, as it is today for Rattler in New Orleans. Throw in the Saints’ leaky offensive line and the Bucs returning defensive tackle Calijah Kancey to the lineup, and Joe thinks mobile Rattler will be flushed from the pocket quite a bit. Heck, the Saints might even call a designed run or two for Rattler to loosen up the Bucs’ defense. It’s a ♦♦ play for Joe only because Rattler might take a knockout shot.
So, that’s where Joe is throwing a little cash.
Good luck!
***Joe was a little disappointed there was no prop line posted on the performance of Bucs wide receiver Sterling Shepard.
October 13th, 2024 at 10:55 am
Don’t trust the Bucs at all! How many years has Britt been here? They knew Kyle Trask couldn’t throw, you mean they didn’t know Britt couldn’t cover? Lavonte David is 34 he is counted on to play a whole season. They will get abused unless Winfield plays Bucs might lose
October 13th, 2024 at 11:32 am
Hey Joes thanks for being the Joes. Day 4 here in Sarasota no power. Going to go to local bar & grill to watch the game and take a break from clean up. Thanks for daily doses of all things Bucs!
GO BUCS!
Go Bucs!–Joe
October 13th, 2024 at 11:44 am
Rattler will pass.
October 13th, 2024 at 11:52 am
@SRQ Bucs Fan
That’s dedication! Wish you and your family the best I hope you get relief soon
October 13th, 2024 at 11:59 am
Sooner number 7 v Sooner number 7.
October 13th, 2024 at 12:22 pm
Go Bucky, shine!!! Go Bucs
October 13th, 2024 at 12:48 pm
One of the Joes is in the same boat as you. Watching the game from Hooters.
October 13th, 2024 at 12:49 pm
Good picks Joe! Go Bucs
Too much action already or I would tail. I’m heavy on Kamara under 67.5 rushing. Bottle that ground game up boys!
October 13th, 2024 at 12:57 pm
These all seem like solid picks. If the Bucs can’t cover 3.5 against Rattler game 1, this team is a loss for this season.
October 13th, 2024 at 1:00 pm
I like all these except the first one- I just can’t put confidence in Bowles being able to shut down a rookie. It’s a coin toss.
Although the way we’ve been up and down every other week, I guess the law of averages says we should get a win this week.
October 13th, 2024 at 4:50 pm
3 – 3
David over 8.5 tackles
Mayfield over 21.5 passes
Godwin over 5.5 receptions
October 14th, 2024 at 1:16 am
Regardless of the outcome, I’m excited to see how the Bucs progress throughout the season.